Tuesday, September 08, 2020

What we don't know is probably more relevant to policy

 A just-released MSD paper examines the family structure of Maori children.

Two data sources were used, Census and Growing Up in NZ. 

First the Census data:


You will notice that these numbers cannot represent all children. They are too low. The paper explains:

We selected children who were able to be linked across all three censuses by Stats NZ. Overall, 59 percent of the child population aged 0–4 years in 2001 and captured in the linked census files was linked to data in the two subsequent censuses (2006 and 2013). Among tamariki Māori, this drops to 53 percent. Some of the ‘missed’ links can be attributed to demographic factors, such as emigration and mortality, but a larger proportion of these false negatives are likely due to incomplete or inconsistent identifying information on children, which means they are not able to be linked. 

The paper states:

"... the share of tamariki Māori ever living in a family with two-parents only (67.5 percent) was significantly lower than among all Aotearoa NZ children (80.2 percent)."

I am wondering why a comparison wasn't drawn between Maori and non-Maori? So I made another table subtracting the Tamariki Maori data from the All Children data.


Now the gap between Tamariki Māori ever living in a family with two-parents only (67.5 percent) and non-Maori NZ children (84 percent) widens.

Another finding (mine) 50.1% of Maori children aged 0-4 in 2001 were in a non- two parent family. This compares to 30.6% for non-Maori.

But this is still tenuous stuff due to all the missing data.

And it gets worse with the GUiNZ data.

It's probably enough to quote from the paper:

These [GUiNZ] longitudinal data allowed for the examination of family structure over multiple time points across early childhood. In this report, we examine family structure data available at antenatal, and when the focal child was 9-months, 23-months (ie nearly 2-years old) and 45-months old (ie nearly 3.5-years old). Family structure was not available at the 54-month wave (ie when the child was nearly 4.5-years old) – the wave in which child outcomes were measured. In total, we were able to include family structure measures at four time points.
In the externally available GUiNZ dataset, family structure is coded by the GUiNZ research team into four mutually exclusive groups from a household roster reported by the primary respondent (mostly the biological mother). These are:
1. living with two parents and no other adults
2. living with one parent and no other adults
3. living with one or two parents, and other adults who are kin
4. living with one or two parents, and other adults who are not kin (and potentially other
adults who are kin).
It is important to note four primary limitations in this conceptualisation of family structure. (My emphasis)

I am constantly frustrated by data limitations because relationship status between parents, and parents and children in some cases, is ignored.

I am not a political conservative. But science finds committed parents (mostly manifested through a marriage) stay together more than any other co-producers of children. Their children demonstrably benefit from this. Most sociologists - and governments by extension -  are impervious though.



Monday, September 07, 2020

Low institutional trust by ethnicity


 Despite considerable variation between groups Parliament is the least trusted institution regardless.

Is that directly related to low voter turn-out I wonder? I don't particularly trust parliament but I still vote. I don't trust select committees to be impartial. Neither do I trust the current speaker to be neutral.When OIA responses are severely redacted or reports withheld  I don't trust claims of transparency.

Why is Asian trust the highest? Is it comparative to their country of origin parliaments?

I like graphs that pose more questions than they answer.

Sunday, September 06, 2020

Cruel "benefit cuts"?

 Someone mentioned to me that the government were going to cut benefits. "They're cutting our incomes!"

What??

Turns out they were talking about the "benefit cuts" combined advocates are now calling the end of the winter energy payment.

For instance:

Incomes are scheduled to be cut by up to $63 a week for many of New Zealand’s lowest-income households in less than a month, but Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) and Auckland Action Against Poverty (AAAP) are both urging the Government to immediately raise family incomes instead, as an ongoing crisis-response measure. Families and couples receiving benefits and New Zealand Superannuation are set to get $63 less a week, and singles $41 less a week, from 1 October when the Winter Energy Payment (WEP) period ends.

But this is disingenuous.

The winter energy payment is a subsidy on higher heating costs through winter.

Those costs reduce as we move into spring and summer. 

Labour can't take a trick at the moment.

The WEP was 'kind'.

But taking it away is 'cruel'.

Friday, September 04, 2020

NZ fertility falls to just 1.69

News flash.

New Zealand's fertility rate has fallen to just 1.69, the lowest in a century. We hovered around replacement rate - better than most western nations - for decades but that pattern is well and truly over.


I wrote a paper about this subject which Family First published last year. Here is a historical graph.


Falling fertility is almost uniform across the developed world. Elsewhere only India (just over replacement level)  and Africa are seeing growth and even in those populations the growth is slowing.




Centrist parties = policy creep

Paid Parental Leave (PPL) is quite a recent development.

In the 1990s you could take unpaid leave up to a year, the circumstances in which my first was born. I was amazed to find the company I worked for had to keep my job available to me for 12 months.

Alliance MP Laila Harre introduced a PPL private members bill but in 1998 it was voted down.

However, after Labour was voted in at the end of the nineties, they adopted it as general policy in 2001 to be introduced soon after.

From there the entitlement has grown incrementally.

Most recently it was extended to 26 weeks.

Now National is effectively promising another extension through their $3-6,000 child services entitlement.

The point of my post is to highlight that having two centrist parties means entitlements can only grow as they vie for your votes by promising ever more.



Thursday, September 03, 2020

Do I have $75 for National's new child policy?

 Right now, not really. At $226 million that's roughly what it will cost each taxpayer (courtesy of my matchbox calculations of 3m payers.)

All new parents can access up to $3,000 in services. National MP Louise Upston told Heather du Plessis Allan this could be, for instance, extra paid parental leave days so you can count on the maximum entitlement being drawn on. For mothers with "higher needs" the entitlement could go as high as $6,000. Not sure how 'higher needs' will be defined.

Now, remember, this is on top of the Best Start policy Labour introduced which gives $3,000 cash annually universally in the first 365 days and to most in the first three years.

Why aren't parents using that funding to 'buy services'?

I mean, where does this largesse end?


Wednesday, September 02, 2020

Have you made up your mind re cannabis vote?

 A Horizon poll says the decision is split 49.5% vs 49.5%.

I am somewhat ashamed to say I am still vacillating.

The age group I fall in exactly reflects the 50/50 split.



One prediction I will make is if traditional voting behaviour holds up, it won't pass. 

BTW the reporter was incorrect in describing ACT's view. ACT does not have a position supporting the change.


Tuesday, September 01, 2020

Expenditure on emergency housing more than doubles in a year

 Yesterday I posted about the unsustainable practice of housing people in emergency housing, namely motels, holiday parks, backpackers, etc. Here are the grants and amounts per quarter up to June 2019:

Here is an update:


Compared to the March 2019 quater the expenditure has more than doubled. In fact it increased 134 percent.

Monday, August 31, 2020

The downsides of technology

Had a collosal melt-down today losing access to my artist blog. For some reason the address it was linked to has disapeared (it was a Windowslive address) so I can't get into it. The blog will stay there 'forever' as I can also never delete it. So I've had to start up a new one linked to yet another email address, Lindsay Mitchell Artwork, for updates. To establish it I've put up some paintings not at the artist site. A very frustrating day also occupied by hand altering artist business cards after Clear decided they would no longer offer email services. Who can afford to throw away hundreds of cards?

An electorate tick for the National candidate

When I get annoyed with National for taking positions I disagree with it makes it harder to support their MPs. But Chris Bishop has been a highly visible and effective local MP and this seals the deal for me:

Hutt South MP Chris Bishop helped Michael shift to a new motel, and also worked with nearby residents. He was “very unimpressed” with the conditions at the lodge.

Bishop commended the ministry for its actions, but said New Zealanders should not be forced to live in motels.

“We’ve got to do better for residents and the people in emergency housing.”

Personally helping  constituents and highlighting a growing and urgent nation-wide problem. 

Putting MSD clients in temporary motel accommodation is not a sustainable win-win. A bad press story featured on page two of the DomPost is bad for the motels, bad for MSD, bad for property owners in the vicinity and invades the privacy of people requiring emergency accommodation amongst whom a few bad apples tarnish their collective reputation. It's a familiar story though. In Rotorua famous Fenton St is now known as MSD Mile. I blogged earlier this year about the extent of the practice.

Increasing homelessness during Labour's innings is a collosal fail. Despite this the cult of Jacinda will probably see the local Labour list  MP re-elected even though she dropped from 19 to 45 in the 2020 rankings.

Saturday, August 29, 2020

The oft repeated error about 1991 benefit cuts

 



This letter seems to be affirming what mine said about familiy stability - not cash hand-outs - improving a child's prospects. The writer grew up in a state house with security of tenure and a loving mother. Lone parents can also provide stability and security.

But I wanted to take issue with the last section because it's an error often repeated.

Benefits to sole mothers were not cut by 25%. From Tim Garlick's 'Social Developments': "Lone parents faced significant cuts: 10.7 percent for beneficiaries with one child; 8.9 percent for those with two children." 

At the same time means-tested Family Support for beneficiary children was increased and Community Services cards were introduced to subsidise health services for low income. 

In addition the maximum Child Care subsidy increased from $32 to $65 per week to assist parents to take employment.

The latter developments from the reform period have been forgotten over time.




Wednesday, August 26, 2020

John Tamihere romanticising Maori crime

According to John Tamihere, who has regrettably in my view taken the Maori Party down a  full-blown victimhood track:

Māori make up 60% of the prison population in New Zealand Women’s’ Prisons alone.

“We are the most incarcerated indigenous population in the world. This is a national catastrophe and disgrace,” Tamihere said

“80% of those women are there for crimes of dishonesty. They did not wake up and say to themselves today I’m going to steal and be dishonest,” he said.

“They woke up and said I have to put food on my table. I have to get my kids to the doctors. I have to pay for their uniforms. I have to give them things that others take for granted. So they are in prison for crimes of poverty – not dishonesty.

It's a self-deluded romantic apologist view. 

The following stats are exported from customised NZStat data:




2018-19 sentenced population = 519

Which could be classed as 'crimes of dishonesty'?

Robbery etc

Burglary etc

Theft etc

Fraud etc

Offences against justice etc

= 327

63 percent

Dancing on a pinhead John might say when all crimes are taken into account his 80% is true. The graph will show the most serious crime sentenced for.

But semantics aside, do you accept that these crimes were perpetrated to acquire school uniforms and doctor visits for children?

Afterall tens of thousands other Maori mums didn't turn to crime to look after their children.

Something has changed for the better

 There was a period which extended to a few years when the DomPost ignored my letters. People used to ask me why I'd stopped writing them. I didn't. But something has changed and they are now printing my submissions for which I am very grateful.


Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Low income families do not universally appear in poor social statistics

 Another who thinks more money thrown at the problems of the "underclass" will make them go away.

Graeme MacCormick  believes taxing and distributing more to the "underclass" will reduce problems of, "...domestic violence, child abuse, crime and imprisonment rates, childhood poverty, alcohol and other drug abuse, poor health and educational outcomes." He blames the effects of colonisation on the tangata whenua,  the Douglas/Richardson economic reforms, and, if more money is the answer, than obviously, poverty. "Parents need sufficient" he writes "to give their children a positive start in life."

Over the past fifteen or so years this has become a familiar diagnosis and recommended remedy. But as New Zealand has become more ethnically diverse we see new groups emerging that are not necessarily wealthy. Seldom do they appear among the poor social statistics MacCormick describes. He could check negative stats from Oranga Tamariki,  and the Ministries of Health and Education to verify that Asian and Indian children are almost absent. Yet many live in low income homes. The difference? Strong, stable families with intact work ethics. Those characteristics nurture and protect children to a much greater extent than cash hand-outs. 

Monday, August 24, 2020

David Seymour: Quote of the Day

 

Describing the Prime Minister’s daily address, the ad nauseam “wash your hands and be kind,” tonight's TV3 News had Seymour saying,  


“The last time I was talked to like that was when I attended Horahora kindergarten.”

Relationship between benefit receipt and unemployment

 From MSD:

Trends in main benefit receipt are associated with the official unemployment rate



1. The Depression (D)– 1930s
2. The Wool Bust – (WB) mid-1960s
3. The First Oil Shock – (FOS) mid 1970s
4. The Second Oil Shock – (SOS) 1979 to early-1980s
5. Black Monday and the restructuring events of the 1980s and early 1990s –
(BMER) 1987-1992
6. The Asian Crises – (AC) late 1990s/early 2000s
7. The Global Financial Crises – (GFC) 2008 and arguably ongoing7
8. COVID-19 – (C19)


During the Depression (D) there were no unemployment benefits - just government work schemes.

Then there was a long sustained period of 'full' employment. This was aided by award rates, subsidies and low participation of women in the labourforce. Through stages 3,4 and 5 something unusual happened. The unemployment rate rose steeply paralleled understandably by receipt of benefits. But benefits overshot unemployment by a large margin through the early nineties and the gap has persisted since. Incapacity and sole parent benefits made the difference. If more families had remained intact the two lines would have stayed closer to each other. The male breadwinners set adrift often never worked again and ended up on invalid and sickness benefits which increasingly featured incapacity for psychiatric and psychological reasons adding to the gap.

So the title of the graph, "Trends in main benefit receipt are associated with the official unemployment rate" is on one hand an accurate description. But there were and are other social trends influencing the relationship.


Sunday, August 23, 2020

Outrageous claim from a "trustworthy" source

Michelle Duff claims in an 'analysis' for "trustworthy, accurate and reliable" Stuff:

90 per cent of those who have lost their jobs post-Covid are women

Yesterday I quoted another source that debunked the number.

The shocking revelation – that of the 11,000 fewer people in paid employment, 10,000 of them were women - should be taken with a grain of salt, said KiwiBank economist Mary Jo Vergara, because the level of disruption during lockdown made it hard to conduct the survey.

“But I think the message there is clear - even if you adjust for some anomalies in the data you’d still see over 50 per cent, probably around 60 or 70 per cent of those who lost their jobs, would be women.”

But let's check the claim against MSD data:


(Left click on image to enlarge)

The annual increase uptake of Jobseeker benefit was GREATER for males.

It could be argued that females get locked out of Jobseeker if they have a working partner.

But that did not apply to the Covid Income Relief Payment for people made redundant after March.




The monthly increase uptake of  CIRP was GREATER for males.

And 22% more males than females are receiving CIRP.

This outrageous claim will become an urban myth unless we arm ourselves with the facts and reject it.


Saturday, August 22, 2020

What a whinger

What a whinger Michelle Duff is. Writing a piece about how hard done by women have been during the Covid crisis she says:

" 90 per cent of those who have lost their jobs post-Covid are women"

 Well that's BS for starters. Look at her own link.

 The shocking revelation – that of the 11,000 fewer people in paid employment, 10,000 of them were women - should be taken with a grain of salt, said KiwiBank economist Mary Jo Vergara, because the level of disruption during lockdown made it hard to conduct the survey.

“But I think the message there is clear - even if you adjust for some anomalies in the data you’d still see over 50 per cent, probably around 60 or 70 per cent of those who lost their jobs, would be women.”

While men were the hardest hit in previous recessions, this time around it’s part-time workers in the female-dominated industries – retail and hospitality – who are losing their jobs.

So let's split the difference and call it 60%. Consider though that part-time workers are not as reliant on their income as full-time workers. It is often a benefit or Super top-up, or a contribution to the main household income. If it were men (who usually work full-time) being harder hit (which it may well yet turn out to be) it's very likely that would impact their female partners more than the loss of her part-time job. In any case the Covid Inome Relief Payment was made available to women who had lost part-time jobs and had partners. Forgot to mention that.

Duff goes on to cite a survey which finds,

Around 76 per cent of women said childcare is holding them back, standing in the way of career achievements. 

Well frigging well don't have children. Don't make it everybody else's problem.

...women wanted pay equity, better laws to combat bullying and harassment, and for paid parental leave to be granted to both parents...improving sick leave to include looking after dependants, and funding daycares to provide more flexible hours.

Oddly enough the more women get in respect of legislated work-life balance policies, the fewer children they have. So maybe it is just complaining for the sake of it.

Almost half of all respondents said they had experienced violence or abuse from an intimate partner. 

Each time I see a statistic about the prevalence of violence or abuse from a partner it has increased from the last (which was BTW when recently at the Warehouse Stationary where signs everywhere claimed one in three women experienced such. I was asked to make a donation to the cause and declined).

Mobilising the women’s vote can win elections, with 2017 showing that women are overall more likely to vote than men.

To capture that vote, political parties need to get serious about improving women’s lives.

There it is. Who does identity politics the best? Who was the PM's biographer?

Duff's whining on behalf of 'women' (an imaginary collective) is no more than a blatant effort to gender-gerrymander the election result. 

 

 

Friday, August 21, 2020

Child poverty: failing to make a difference


 “Child poverty was a national crisis before Covid-19 and without urgent action, it risks turning into a catastrophe.” 

Anita Baker, Mayor of Porirua


After all the money she has thrown at the problem (see first link above) the PM has made no difference. In Porirua matters are only getting worse. According to the Mayor, "“Whether it’s school attendance, oral health, hospital visits or social housing waiting lists, the report paints a grim picture. These indicators weren’t looking good even before Covid. The danger now is that they accelerate in the wrong direction.” 

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Society's fault too many Maori are in prison?

 Here's a proposition to explore:

"...the extent to which society provides housing, health, and benefits/welfare is a critical factor in whether people avoid the justice system in the first place."

Coming from the current crop of public service apologists this suggests it is the fault of "society" that people are in prison.

It's extracted from a foreword  by the CE of Corrections or  Ara Poutama Aotearoa, a name which has been "... gifted to us after extensive consultation with Māori communities and iwi."

My attention was drawn to this document  after I OIAed Corrections asking why they had ceased publication of Practice: The New Zealand Corrections Journal, a $10,000 six-monthly value-for-money collection of articles penned by those working with prisoners. The answer is the journal has been put on hold while they focus on Hokai Rangi, the new Maori strategy.

But back to the statement. Most people in prison have more than a passing acquaintance with state housing, public health services and the benefit system.

Is it too much or not enough?



Unhealthy health professionals

It is unedifying when one professional attacks another. It might even be described as 'bullying' not that I have much truck with that over-used catchcry.

I listened carefully to Simon Thornley yesterday speaking to Peter Williams on Magic Talk. Williams canvassed the professional relationship between Simon and Rod Jackson, who had a piece in the NZ Herald the same day. At no point did Thornley criticise Jackson but kept firmly on his own course.

Today the Dompost has a lengthy piece canvassing the views of epidemiologists in New Zealand.

[Jackson] has little time for Thornley’s arguments, and says they should not be given any oxygen. “I don't understand why people are pushing these obviously completely wrong messages.”

“He [Thornley] is the only dissenter in the epidemiological community,” he says.

“It’s not like this is a discussion like a boxing match with two equal partners. What you’ve got is every experienced epidemiologist in the country supporting the Government’s elimination approach.

“We are all advising the Government, and we speak with one voice. And you have got a junior epidemiologist who is presenting a different case.”

He uses the word "silly" twice to describe Thornley's views.

For mine I am always glad when someone who has doubts expresses them. Again we are seeing this creeping pattern of thought-supression playing out with Covid 19. 

It's very unhealthy.



Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Babies taken into care

Two new evidence papers were released by Oranga Tamariki this month. The first calculates the risk of mothers who have a history of care and protection having their own child removed. I've run the numbers through a different calculation to assess population likelihood of a baby being removed based on the following data:



1,050 mothers out of 58,730 means 1.8% - or almost one in fifty 20-28 year-old mothers has a child removed.

If for argument's sake 18%* of all mothers are Maori (10,571) 536 removals means 5% - one in twenty 20-28 Maori mothers has a child removed. 

That's pretty high. One in every small class group.

The second brief looks at reasons why babies are removed:

"A random sample of cases for babies who were aged under 30 days when they were taken into care under s78 of the Oranga Tamariki Act was analysed to determine the reasons they were taken into care

In the sample:

• In cases of maternal alcohol and drug use, 59% involved methamphetamine and 44% involved alcohol

• Overall methampthetamine was a factor in half (49%) of entries to care in the sample

• Substance abuse was present in 65% of cases, and family violence present in 64%

• Neglect/deprivation and emotional abuse were present in over 50% of cases"

* According to the last census 16.5% of the population is Maori. But it is a young population and Maori women tend to become mothers earlier so 18% may be too low. If I entered 23% the percentage of mothers with a baby removal would drop to 4% - one in twenty five.

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

On equality of opportunity vs equality of outcome

Back to basics, I very much enjoyed the following timeless piece written by John Mendzela after the 2015 Rugby World Cup:


"We’ve won the Rugby World Cup again! But now it’s time for a resolution to make 2016 better than the year before. Something that matters. Here’s what you can do.


You’ve been hearing that the greatest economic and social problem of our time is inequality. Until now, you might have dismissed that notion. You might have said it was enough to give everyone a fair go – a reasonable chance to compete, and succeed through persistence and hard work. Just create that equality of opportunity.


But think harder. That’s not enough. It can’t be. Life teaches us some people will take those equal opportunities and do something with them, while others simply won’t. In fact, equality of opportunity just encourages individual differences to shine. What we need is equality of outcome – making sure everybody ends up the same.


It’s a big challenge. Where to start? How can Kiwis show we really care, and inspire others? It’s obvious. Start where we’re known best globally – on the rugby pitch. Take the All Blacks – a grotesque example of inequality. They score lots more points than opponents, win almost all their games, and collect far more international awards than other teams. It’s an unequal outcome, and so it’s unfair. A national disgrace!


It’s time to put that right. Please join KAURI – Kiwis Against Unjust Rugby Inequality.To start, KAURI will tackle inequality of “income” – the points that get scored in rugby.To ensure the teams have equal outcomes, we just need to total up the points scored in a game and share them out evenly at the end. 25-15 becomes 20-20. Simple!


Achieving equal outcomes for players will be harder. Luckily, we have all those TV statistics. Take the 20 shared points for the team, divide them up in proportion to the time players spent on the pitch, and credit each one with scoring that many. It gets complicated. We’ll need computers. But it’ll be equal – maybe 1.17 points per hour.


That will ensure equal outcomes going forward. But KAURI can’t stop there. There’s inequality of “wealth” to deal with too. New Zealand can set an example to combat injustice and achieve equal outcomes for all. It won’t be easy, but let’s find a way to hand back those Rugby World Cups – especially the latest - and equalise World Cup outcomes for all teams everywhere. And then we can re-write all the record books…

KAURI needs your support. Please join us. These famous Kiwi rugby names have:


“It felt good at the time, winning all those games. But it was wrong. I know that now. I’ll dedicate my new career to equal rugby outcomes with KAURI.” (Richie McCaw)


“When I think back to all my World Cup tries, I feel really ashamed. Opponents tried hard too, and never scored any. KAURI can redistribute all mine.” (Julian Savea)


“KAURI will lead rugby into a fairer future. Things will change, but we’ll still have challenges. Future All Black teams will be famous for kind tackles.” (Steve Hansen) "

Friday, August 14, 2020

An ugly fantasy promulgated by a supremely patronising PM

The kind one is so very unkind when she relishes people hanging on to hear what is going to happen to their lives, their families, jobs and businesses, but blathers on endlessly. It's so disrespectful, so self-centered and self-serving.

No Prime Minister has ever behaved so autocratically and patronisingly.

We cannot eliminate this virus, and to keep on telling the gullible we can is fantasy, ugly fantasy.


Thursday, August 13, 2020

Covid-Plan B

 The formation of Covid - Plan B has only just come to my attention:

"Epidemiologist Simon Thornley says the new virus outbreaks and lockdown responses are proof that New Zealand must, as the WHO has recently said, learn to live with the virus."

More from the press release

And more about the group

Great to see an alternative view to 'elimination' expressed.

Friday, August 07, 2020

Banksies unscientific poll

 John Banks filled in for Peter Williams on Magic Talk this week. He spent this morning polling the audience on their Party vote intentions and received around 700 responses. I jotted down the result. Later Sean Plunket refused to share the result because it was "unscientific". Well, that's a given. But I will share it. Not particularly surprising given the audience:


Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements

Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements, the Housing Register, previously known as the state house waiting list:



Thursday, August 06, 2020

Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job

National's 'subsequent child' policy said a woman who has another baby on welfare would still have work obligations when that child turns one. It wasn't discouraging the habit though because seven years after implementation (in 2019) 6,000 babies were still  being born onto an existing benefit.

But a war isn't abandoned just because a battle is lost.  You mount another battle, a different strategy.

Not this government. They simply surrendered, held up a white flag saying, "Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job."

Labour says this is 'kind' to mothers who should not be expected to work in the first 1,000 days of their babies life. A luxury denied to mothers who return to work to pay mortgages and taxes. Stuff reported:

ACT employment spokeswoman Nicole McKee, who is a candidate for the party outside Parliament, said Labour was “promoting welfare as a lifestyle option and will harm kids in benefit-dependent households”.

“Many couples wait to start families in order to ensure they can afford to feed, clothe, house and support their children. Those couples who wait and plan are being forced to subsidise those whose lifestyle is dependent on welfare,” she said.
Quite.

But consider this also. 

Children born in 2010, whose caregiver spent more than 80% of their next five years on a benefit, would be 38 times more likely to experience maltreatment by age two than those with no benefit history. 

This 'kick-start' sends children off on a downward spiral. 

Most of the mothers having babies on welfare are 'single' and disproportionately Maori.

Thanks to  Sensible Sentencing Trust research into the sentencing notes of 100 male offenders over 18 who have committed serious crimes- Murder, Manslaughter, Rape, Sexual Assault - we now know that most were brought up by a single mother or had migrated into the care of grandparents or OT.


The Labour/Green ideology does not value stable two-parent families despite eons of evidence proving they are good for children.

It appals me that not only do they blindfold themselves to the facts but barge off pigheadedly in the opposite direction. And the Children's Commissioner support for this latest move utterly dismays.

 

Wednesday, August 05, 2020

The unrepresentative unemployment rate

According to Statistics NZ the June quarter unemployment rate dropped to 4%


These figures are derived from a 15,000 household survey and extrapolated.

ACTUAL numbers on the combined Jobseeker benefit and Covid Income Relief Payment at July 24, 2020 are 212,397.

A couple of reasons the numbers are so different are:

1/ Someone working just a few hours is not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey but can qualify for the Jobseeker benefit

2/ Someone who has been made redundant and receiving the Covid Income Relief Payment temporarily might not be looking for work right so is also not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey.

Then there is the not inconsequential matter of the 452,425 currently employed on a wage subsidy...

Exceptional turn out for ACT's Wellington launch

I've been around ACT for a long time. If anything convinces me the momentum building in the polls is real, the turn-out at the Wellington launch last night did. It was also an unusually young crowd for ACT. I talked to a young women who'd driven down from Wanganui with her partner who hadn't even been born when I first took an interest in the party. 

The highlight for me was 27 year-old Brooke van Velden. I'd never met her or heard her speak and she impressed me immensely. Quietly spoken, just the right measure of emotion, compelling content and an easy presence, she strikes me as a safe pair of hands. And David Seymour has come a long way from the youth wing of ACT. He's an accomplished, quick and entertaining speaker handling audience questions with candour and good humour.

Just a brief report as I can find no other in the media although I believe some journalists were in attendance.


Tuesday, August 04, 2020

ACT supporters "sceptical about the state generally"

Apparently, a Stuff-Massey University survey of voters showed:

ACT voters, for instance, while saying that they felt safe in their own neighbourhood, were more likely to say the police were not doing a good job at protecting communities.

“If you’re an ACT Party supporter, you’re very sort of sceptical about government generally and about the state generally. And so you're more likely, I think, to give any agency of the state a negative rating.”

 Back in June I wrote a post about how the police failed to resolve 87% of property crimes within the year. That fact is from their own annual report. Does that represent a police force "doing a good job of protecting communities"?

In May I wrote a post about how the number of prisoners on remand has doubled. The justice system is not functioning properly.

Those are just two recent instances of my skepticism about state agencies. 

Warranted?

Saturday, August 01, 2020

Jobseeker numbers were on the rise well before Covid

Since Labour took office the number of people on the Jobseeker benefit has risen steadily in spite of the reported low unemployment rate. I've blogged numerous times about the divergence. The following just-released MSD graph displays it starkly. The blue line provides the source of NZ's official unemployment rate. It continued a broadly downward trend after 2017 whereas the red line starts increasing.


The point is that Labour will blame high Jobseeker numbers on Covid but that's only partly true. 

The upward trend pre-existed the economic response to the virus.

A changing picture



JS-WR = Job Seeker Work Ready

Thursday, July 30, 2020

On the 'subsequent child' policy in parliament today

Dialogue in Parliament today with my italicised comments interspersed:


Question No. 5—Social Development
5. WILLOW-JEAN PRIME (Labour) to the Minister for Social Development: What recent announcements has she made about putting children first as part of the Government's welfare overhaul?

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI (Minister for Social Development): Yesterday, I announced that this Government is putting children first and making our welfare system fairer by removing the punitive subsequent child policy. The subsequent child policy was introduced in 2012. The policy has meant that parents who have a subsequent child whilst on a benefit have work obligations imposed on them earlier, from when their youngest child is just one year old, and, depending on the age of their next oldest child, this can also affect their eligibility for the sole parent support benefit. This is a policy that has furthered inequities in the welfare system for parents and their children, undermined the value of parenting, and exacerbated stigma and stress for many families.

Willow-Jean Prime: What difference will this make for parents and children?

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI: The subsequent child policy has a disproportionate effect on Māori women. 

Most children being added to an existing benefit are Maori. That has long been the case.

By removing the policy, we can further our commitment to improving outcomes for Māori and valuing the role of carers, who are predominantly women. 

The research resoundingly shows children born onto a benefit have poorer outcomes. Condoning - even encouraging this occurrence - will not improve "outcomes for Māori".


The first 1,000 days of a child's life are critical for their long-term development. It is not fair that these children might not be given the same time and support simply because they were born while their parents were on a benefit. 

Most children today do not have the luxury of 1,000 days with their mothers. To buy a home requires two incomes.  Prospective mothers and fathers plan around this reality and wait to have their children hence the ever-increasing average age of first time mothers. They wait and save while people on benefits keep having kids.

Removing the subsequent child policy will give the estimated 9,000 parents affected the flexibility to be carers. However, the removal of this policy does not preclude parents who are able to work from getting access to the employment and upskilling support from the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) that this Government has significantly bolstered investment in.

The "flexibility to be carers" comes at the expense of those taxpayers denying themselves the same luxury. And "this government" did not significantly bolster investment in access to employment support. Quite the opposite. It reduced case manager engagement at that level.

Last year the Expert Advisory Welfare Group pointed out, "In June 2014, employment-focused case managers engaged proactively with 50% of their clients every month to support them into employment. This has fallen to an all-time low of 19%, and, over the past year, has continued to drop by an average of one percentage point per month."

Willow-Jean Prime: Why is the subsequent child policy being removed?

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI: MSD has found no evidence that the subsequent child policy has positively impacted financial or social outcomes for those affected. This highlights, for me, how punitive policies, underpinned by judgment of those in our welfare system, are ineffective and only serve to stigmatise people who, in this case, have been disproportionately Māori women. 

The 'subsequent child policy' has not worked. Reckless or exploitative fertility continues. All that means is a different policy is required - not a surrender.

Under our confidence and supply agreement, this Government has committed to creating a fairer and better welfare system and removing excessive sanctions, and this—

DEPUTY SPEAKER: I think the member has answered the question, thank you.

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI: I raise a point of order, Madam Speaker. I'd like to finish my answer—

DEPUTY SPEAKER: I'm sorry, but I think the member has already answered the question—

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI: Point of order, Madam Speaker.

DEPUTY SPEAKER: No—

Hon CARMEL SEPULONI: Actually, my word count is—

DEPUTY SPEAKER: I'm sorry, sit down. Sit down. It was a very long answer. It was a very simple question, much of which in the member's answer had already been stated. I think the answer has been completed.

I was left with an uncomfortable feeling that the Minister is framing the issue around Maori women to deliberately ward off criticisms of the policy repeal. It sets up the government to paint detractors as racist.

If the kids really come first their life chances should not be thwarted by the politics of race.


Wednesday, July 29, 2020

More reversal of welfare reforms

What a lot of dangerous codswallop. Sepuloni says she is putting children first by removing National's 'subsequent child' policy.

I remember back in 2012, with the Nat's welfare reforms, there was a drive to get sole mothers in particular back into work because it was good for them and good for their children. Work gives adults a community, an independent income, self-esteem and discipline. And all of these are important for their children to experience firsthand.

So they increased work obligations in terms of how much and when (in relation to age of youngest child). 

But there was always the legitimate concern that some mothers would simply keep having children to avoid work. 

To that end they devised a policy whereby when a child was added, the existing work obligation kicked back in when that child turned one.

Now Sepuloni, no doubt 'encouraged' by the Greens, is doing away with it as part of the not-naming-fathers and indexing benefits to wages package.

There is a wealth of data analysis showing children added to benefits stay there the longest and have the worst outcomes. But she doesn't seem to have given the research a second thought.

Last year one in ten babies was added to an existing benefit at birth. For many of them it's a life sentence to neglect, abuse, transience, involvement with OT and eventually their own criminal offending and custodial sentences.

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Aspiring SOAP candidate campaigning for a brighter future

Aspiring SOAP candidate campaigning for a brighter future:


Sunday, July 26, 2020

Friday, July 24, 2020

The generational voting divide

Ten days ago I wrote a post entitled "The Young Don't Vote"

Here are the latest enrollment stats:


And here are the actual voting percentages in 2017:


In raw numbers there are an estimated 450,500 18-24 year-olds with 277,151 or 61.5% enrolled at June 9. The figure will  increase but in 2017 the final enrollment number was 333,164 and 69.3% of them voted.

It is safe to say only between 4 and 5 out of all 18-24 year-olds vote.

For comparison 96% of voters aged 55 or older enroll and they turnout in the mid to high 80% range.

Chris Trotter is worried about this. He writes:

If voters aged between 18 and 25 registered and voted in anything like the same numbers as the centre-left’s core vote, Labour would long ago have become New Zealand’s “natural party of government”.
Pie in the sky. It is the young's prerogative to not vote if that's their inclination. I took no particular interest until I became a mother. People become increasingly involved as they age and are more invested, stable and life-experienced.

He is worried this divide opens the door for Collins. As my post suggested, I agree, but happily. And for those voting youth who are averse to National's new leadership team but not left-inclined, ACT fills the void. Collins v Ardern contrasted neatly by Seymour v Peters.

Monday, July 20, 2020

Two a penny scandals

My God I get sick of the 'scandals'. I put the word in inverted commas because who knows whether an action merits the word or not? Their occurrence is a plague across parties.

All I want is someone to tell their version of the truth directly and publicly. Politicians exist at our expense and our patronage.

But no. We get political management, employment law, the circling of self-interested wagons, despicable mental health excuses, all resulting in a vacuum fostering fertile imaginations and gossip.

While titillation and gratification consume and divert, we are being sucked down a debt vortex the likes of which we have never seen.

Fairness?

Isn't it intriguing that National AND Labour have suddenly become so solicitous of taxpayer's money:

“National’s policy is about fairness. Many Kiwis have only one or two overseas holidays in their lives. National won’t expect taxpayers to pay for other Kiwis returning from high-paying careers or expensive holidays in Europe,” deputy leader Gerry Brownlee said".
Fairness! That's opening a can of worms. Now what about taxpayer's funding universal winter heating payments, Super goldcards for the wealthy aged, Super for people who work, private schools where the wealthy send their children, etc. What else can we now expect?

It seems to me there are two quite different scenarios. New Zealanders returning home for the first time since Covid, often young and without means. And those who have chosen to leave NZ because the two week quarantine on re-entry is tolerable. There is a case for charging the second.

But I am opposed to people having to pay for their state-imposed isolation when they are returning because they have no choice. This could eventually apply to thousands of people currently supported by wage subsidies in Australia. 

If the collective demands protection from first-time returners they must fund their quarantine as part of the public health system.



 

Friday, July 17, 2020

Tale of two tenets

As the election looms, two minor parties, both likely to feature in the next parliament – ACT and the Greens – couldn’t be further apart in their tenets regarding welfare and child well-being.

Perhaps the single-most underrated and under-reported issue in New Zealand is the practice of adding children to existing benefits. Oodles is spoken and written about child poverty, particularly by the Prime Minister who appointed herself Minister of Child Poverty Reduction in 2017. But the fact that 6,000 children are added to an existing benefit and a further 3-4,000 are reliant on welfare by their first birthday never rates a mention. The numbers have varied only slightly over the past 30 years and persist at very high levels. One in ten babies goes home from hospital to a benefit- dependent family.

The links between welfare dependence from birth and poor, if not disastrous outcomes, have now been well-explored by institutions like AUT and Treasury. The latter identified 4 indicators:

1)    a finding of abuse or neglect;
2)    spending most of their lifetime supported by benefits;
3)    having a parent who’d received a community or custodial sentence; and
4)    a mother with no formal qualifications

Using retrospective data they were able to predict outcomes:

“Compared to children with none of the four indicators, children aged 0-5 years with two or more of the four indicators are:

– eight times more likely to have contact with Youth Justice services before age 18 (14% compared to 2%)
– three times more likely to leave school with no qualifications (36% compared to 13%)
– six times more likely to receive benefits for more than two years before the age of 21 (20% compared to 3%)
 – ten times more likely to spend time in jail before the age of 21 (6% compared to 0.6%)
– four times more likely to receive benefits for more than five years when they are aged 25-34 years (21% compared to 5%).”

72% of the children with all four indicators were Maori. These heightened risks lie at the heart of the country’s ongoing inter-generational failure.

It is a logical conclusion to draw that reducing the incidence of child benefit dependence is a desirable goal. But the PM doesn’t agree. And neither do the Greens. For them, increasing the income provided by benefits is the most important aim.

Labour has already headed down this road by substantially increasing child tax credits and introducing a whole new payment, Best Start, for children aged 0-2. The Greens want to develop on this by universalising and increasing Best Start to $100 weekly,  a $110 top-up for sole parents, and “no stand-down periods, no deduction of child support and no sanctions” (i.e. no individual  responsibility).

ACT, on the other hand, has firmly focused their policy on the phenomenon of children being born onto welfare and not infrequently spending their entire lives there. They point out that it isn’t acceptable for these families to keep having children when other families wait and sacrifice, and sometimes never have their own or additional children. More to the point, it is entirely unacceptable for children to be carelessly thrown into environments that harm them and rob them of their potential.

ACT’s policy says that if someone already on a benefit adds another child their benefit income will thereafter be managed. Rent and utilities will be paid direct, with the large part of the remainder of their benefit loaded onto an electronic card to be used in specified retail outlets. Work and Income already has the technology to do this. They operate income management for Youth and Young Parent beneficiaries in this fashion.

Under this regime children should be guaranteed a secure roof over their heads instead of the insecure transience resulting from unpaid rents, evictions and homelessness. Their schooling would be less interrupted with increased geographical stability. They should have adequate food in their tummies in and out of term time (not assured under school lunch programmes).  Their  mother may be encouraged to take advantage of the fully- subsidised, highly effective,  long-acting contraceptives now available, ameliorating the overcrowding which is a significant factor in New Zealand’s horribly high rate of rheumatic fever. Perhaps most importantly their parent(s) will actually decide working is a better option if they want agency over their income. There is a risk caregivers will try to supplement their incomes in other undesirable, illegal  ways but no policy is risk free, and this almost certainly already happens to some degree.

Increasingly throwing money at dysfunctional families provides no assurance parents will suddenly become better budgeters, or not simply spend more on harmful behaviours. Gambling and substance abuse don’t just hurt the parent. They hurt the child directly (damage in the womb, physical abuse or neglect under the influence) not to mention indirectly through parental role-modelling that normalizes bad behaviours, especially violence, to their children.

The two approaches to child benefit dependence are a world apart. One continues the ‘freedom’ of the adult to use taxpayer’s money as they wish; the other prioritizes the best interests of the child -their right to security, stability and safety – or, as ACT puts it, what the taxpayer thinks they are paying for.

The country cannot go on merely paying lip-service to the idea of ‘breaking the cycle’. Now is not the time for more of the same. More than ever New Zealand cannot afford the social cost and lost potential that occurs monotonously in an easily identifiable portion of every generation.

ACT and the Greens present very clear alternatives in their beliefs and policy, and while neither will form the next government on their own, either could be an influential part of it. One promotes the best interests of the child, while the other promotes the best interests of the so-called ‘grown-ups’ euphemistically called ‘caregivers’ – I know which one I will be supporting.

(First published at NZCPR)

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Broken benefit system?

Obviously the sharp increase in benefit numbers to 353,440 or 11.8% of the working-age population at the end of June is a result of the economic response to Covid.

However there are other factors contributing to increased numbers.

Firstly benefit cancellations for medical reasons have dropped right away. That means people are not getting fixed in the health system. The issue hasn't been getting a lot of coverage yet but the growth in waiting lists must be significant. Firsthand experience and plenty of anecdotal evidence tells me this is the case.


Secondly sanctions have been all but suspended due to resources going into processing new applications. With the Greens actively campaigning for sanctions to go permanently one wonders if they will ever be re-instated. Without sanctions there is no point in obligations. Without obligations the system is open slather.


Tuesday, July 14, 2020

The young don't vote

Not an excitable person by nature, I still managed to say out loud, walking on the beach with my dogs today, earphone in and listening to Magic Talk, "Bullshit."

Some panelist or commentator was saying that because Jacinda appeals to the young, National had to select a leader who could do the same.

Idiocy.  National should represent the values it traditionally has and appeal to the older voters that reliably go to the ballot boxes. Demographics are on their side. Proportionately the young vote less,  and their share of the electorate is shrinking proportionately.

Certainly, parties need to renew their voter base over time but right now, in these extraordinary times, that consideration is not a priority.

Pleased Judith Collins is new leader and I like Gerry as deputy.

Now we'll see how much real support there is for the political status quo.

(Written as an ACT voter).

A poverty of plain speaking never affected Judith Collins

Judith Collins has been in parliament for a long time and I have blogged about her for the duration. Not extensively but when I agreed or disagreed with her comments. She was, after all, National's spokesperson on Social Development from 2005-08. She once made a deliberately audible comment when I approached her at a welfare forum, "Here comes Lindsay Mitchell to tell me I am too soft on welfare." Didn't bother me bar I never saw myself as 'hard' on welfare. I just believed welfare was hard on kids.

But here's a relatively recent contribution (2016) that contains more than a kernel of truth. It's also a good example of why I wrote this morning, "...she says what she means and means what she says." The link is still live:

Reported on Radio New Zealand:

Ms Collins was challenged at the Police Association's annual conference in Wellington today by a delegate, who said poverty was making law enforcement harder.

The delegate said his officers had been very busy with gangs, which he said were often filled with people who had experienced poverty as children.

The government's approach to child poverty was criticised in a recent United Nations report, as well as by opposition politicians.

Ms Collins responded by saying the government was doing a lot more for child poverty in New Zealand than the UN had ever done.

In New Zealand, there was money available to everyone who needed it, she said.

"It's not that, it's people who don't look after their children, that's the problem.

"And they can't look after their children in many cases because they don't know how to look after their children or even think they should look after their children."

Monetary poverty was not the only problem, she said.

"I see a poverty of ideas, a poverty of parental responsibility, a poverty of love, a poverty of caring."

As the MP for Papakura, she saw a lot of those problems in south Auckland, she said.

"And I can tell you it is not just a lack of money, it is primarily a lack of responsibility.

"I know that is not PC, but, you know, that's me."

I see a poverty of plain speaking holding NZ back, badly, if the practice is not re-established. Collins could trigger its return.

Two minute Todd

Who knows what goes on in the National Party? Like most of the public I can do no more than speculate on the veracity of the reasons Todd Muller has given for resigning this morning. But I can limit my response to that perspective.

Todd tried too hard. I responded to his Te Aroha speech here concluding he was trying to play Jacinda at her own game. Too risky.

Consequently he never appeared to be 'his own man' and that is absolutely vital for a leader and someone trying to sell himself as such in extremely uncertain times.

If my sense of the mood is accurate, at least half the country wants a very different alternative to Labour. They are turned off by identity politics -  accusations of racism, sexism and ageism that know no bounds or definition. Witch-hunting Me Tooism. Ever increasing wealth redistribution to address 'inequality' when equality of opportunity has never been greater. The soaking of the public service in Maori spiritualism in a secular society. The obsession with diversity (which preempted Muller's second hiccough.) And the religion of climate change which wrongly insists unsettled science is settled.

Todd was either trying to tiptoe through this cultural minefield or is genuinely conflicted. Anyone who is a parent right now, especially of teenagers and young adults, faces the chasm in thinking between generations on multiple issues. And forget the media and your colleagues: your offspring can be the toughest critics to handle because you have to listen to them.

But who now?  Judith "Is there something wrong with being white?" Collins?

She's tough enough. Listening to her promoting her new book there is no sense of her wanting it but there is a strong sense of her not leaving politics any time soon. And there also appear to be a few scores she would like to settle, even if she can't directly.

She'd be my pick if for no other reason than she says what she means and means what she says.




Wednesday, July 08, 2020

Govt attacking 'traditional masculinity'

Extension of the government's 'It's Not OK' anti-violence strategy was released yesterday. The campaign has run since 2007 but it is now turning it focus wholly on 'gendered intimate partner violence.' Men as perpetrators.

Some extracts:
The campaign has re-set its strategic intent, with the next phase strengthening its focus on preventing violence by men, who generally cause most harm, with evidence suggesting gender inequities are a fundamental driving factor. 
Did they miss a word out? I would have prefaced 'harm' with 'physical' myself.
Factors associated with practice of violence
Women’s lack of autonomy and male dominance of decision-making in public life,
families and relationships.
Question: How many women do you know that 'call the shots' or 'wear the trousers' in their families? In my experience it's almost the norm. And that is not a slur on women.
The traditional societal construct of masculinity, and social norms around adhering to that construct, are identified as key factors in the prevalence of violence and a primary focus of this strategy...  Social norms that promote male domination, aggressive and stoic male relationships and acceptance and minimisation of violence against women have a strong influence on behaviours. These norms create an environment within which violence is condoned, enabled and promoted...There is a clear link between the more strongly held ideas of traditional masculinity and a greater likelihood of an individual man using domestic violence against women.
An end to traditional masculinity? An end to a man supporting and protecting his family?

The left has already gone a long way in this aim by robbing many men of the role of fatherhood. They are now actively encouraging mothers to not even name the fathers of their children. But maybe my idea of traditional masculinity is awry.

I grew up with three brothers and a Dad who was always there for me. They all embody my idea of traditional masculinity. Steady, stoic (is there something wrong with being stoic?), sensitive but not given to over-emotionalism, dutiful, good-humoured and loyal.

For balance the writers do add:
 Not all men are violent, and women can be violent too, but there is overwhelming evidence that family and sexual violence is largely gendered in terms of victimisation, perpetration and impacts.
There had to be a BUT.

Perhaps I shouldn't let this stuff bother me. Maybe it's about a community and culture I don't understand. But a gut feeling persists that government intervention only drives a wedge between men and women. For instance, with benefit-dependence dressed up as female financial independence, many boys have grown up in homes without fathers, exposed to disinterested non-fathers or their mother's anti-male attitudes. The wedge between male and female is driven yet deeper leading to a greater gulf in the next generation.

Here we are today. Feminists still waving the gender inequality banner as a reason for male violence when it's feasible that decades-long policy changes made in the name of feminism have actually fueled the problem.

And you know why we get all this tosh from the public service - yes, you are paying for it - Because of traditional masculinity. Thinking men just switch off, stolidly take it on the chin, and peacefully retreat a little more into their self-imposed quietude...

Monday, July 06, 2020

Politicising personal tragedy

My personalized latest e-mail from Jacinda says:
Over the last 15 months, we have been through a lot together - a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption, a global pandemic and now its ensuing financial crisis - and I am truly thankful to each and every one of you for all you’ve done to support each other through difficult these times.
If I had personally experienced the terrorist attack or volcanic eruption - directly or through family - I'd be thoroughly pissed off with the universalizing of these events.

It diminishes the pain, the very private intense pain that was endured.

Jacinda is quite crude and cruel in her disregard for this.

She co-opts events for her gain.

I'd be ashamed to stand behind such a statement.