Friday, August 15, 2014

Labour's flagging support

You will already have read about the latest Stuff Ipsos poll showing Labour support down to 22%.

What stood out to me is their flagging support amongst the 65+ demographic. At 19 percent they are the lowest-polling Labour-supporting age group.

I believe this is because the age group in particular does not want an Internet/Mana - Green - Labour government. As Internet/Mana build support amongst the young they reduce  it from the left block.

Also noteworthy, The Conservative Party has leapt to over 3 percent. Garth McVicar?

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Nicky Hager: The Left blogosphere is as pure as the driven snow

That's the conclusion you would have to draw after reading Nicky Hager's introduction to his new book at the Dirty Politics website.

Hager's earnest one-eyedness is quite pathetic. Quite Chaplinesque. On Campbell Live he got more cringe worthy the longer it went on.  The lack of communicative credibility was overwhelming. But I wouldn't shoot him down on that shortcoming alone.

So I went to look at his on-line evidence of nasty attack, social media politics somehow unique to and especially sinister on the Right. Yet the activity of Left blogs rates no mention.

Of course Hager would protest their relevance.

But it beggars belief that Labour Party connections to The Standard and The Daily Blog don't exist.

The degree of involvement between Whale Oil and National is unknown to me. Sometimes Cam runs a submission from me for which I am grateful. I am not a cheer leader for National.

But right now Hager is religiously hell bent on making it look like the Whale Oil/National relationship is ugly and unique. That's the flaw in his assault.


David Farrar has understandably taken an interest, given a chapter is devoted to him:

Cam does not work for anyone, or even take guidance from anyone. He is his own force of nature.

The Left just doesn't get individualism. Their deep-seated superglued-stuckness to collectivism cultivates conspiracy at every corner.

Large majority think National should have done deal with Conservatives

A NewstalkZB poll surprises me. I'm one of the few 'no' votes. My preference is for ACT and a deal with the Conservatives might weaken that option:

Electorate deals Results

Should National have cut a pre-election deal with Colin Craig?

  • Yes 94 %
  • No 5 %
  • Undecided 1 %

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

New Zealand's war on poverty is the same failed story

Jerry Newcombe marks 50 years of the US War on Poverty:

Rather than alleviate poverty in America, the War on Poverty helped increase it in the long run.
How so? It broke the back of the urban family. They chased dad out of the house. They subsidized illegitimacy and got more of it as a result. Some ghettos resemble a war zone.
Even liberal commentators, like Juan Williams, have said that the rates of children born to unwed mothers has been disastrous for everyone, especially the children.
President Reagan delivered his “Radio Address to the Nation on Welfare Reform” (2/15/86).
The 40th president said, “In 1964 the famous War on Poverty was declared and a funny thing happened. Poverty, as measured by dependency, stopped shrinking and then actually began to grow worse. I guess you could say, poverty won the war. Poverty won in part because instead of helping the poor, government programs ruptured the bonds holding poor families together.”

Last week from NZPA:
  • According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 72 percent of black children are born to single mothers.
  • Fifty-five percent of black children live in single-parent homes, in contrast to 21 percent of white children that live in single-parent homes.
If those numbers are "staggering" consider these:

New Zealand's war on poverty is the same failed story.

SNP promises jobs through cutting corporate tax

The Scottish National Party are promising "full employment" if Scotland becomes independent. How believable  that is matters not. What interested me was their measures to achieve it:

The plan sets out measures such as cutting corporation tax, boosting international exports and productivity, as well as getting a generation of women back into the workplace to create a jobs boom after a Yes vote...Full-time childcare for youngsters from the age of one is also proposed which could see a generation of women return to work and mean up to 35,000 more Scots in employment. Mr Swinney admitted independence “is not a magic wand”, but said few countries had Scotland’s economic potential.

That perhaps partially explains why fewer women want to become independent form the UK:

A BATTLE of the sexes is emerging in the debate over Scotland’s constitutional future, as women snub the Yes camp amid uncertainty about the consequences of leaving the UK.
Women have always been less supportive of independence than men, but the gap in attitudes between the sexes has doubled in the past year and now stands at a 15-year high, according to ScotCen research.

Pensioner policy - as bad as each other

The NZ Herald rightly describes Labour's bribe to pensioners:

It is too easy for political parties to promise handouts in election year. No rival is going to say senior citizens do not need it. The election becomes an auction in which all parties put up their bids at public expense. If the party wins power it is obliged to carry out the promise no matter how cheaply it was made. And once enacted, the benefit becomes almost impossible to remove. Taxpayers bear the waste and the economy loses the investment. It is one way that nations get poor.
But didn't their major rival, National, say "senior citizens do not need it"?

Not really. Their line is to highlight the hypocrisy of Labour saying 65-67 year-olds don't need Super but do need 'free' health care. This is just an opportunity for National to keep promoting their own stubborn  largess with taxpayer money.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Money management extended as expected - not far enough though

TV3 reports:

The Government will extend its money management welfare scheme to all teenage parents and many 18 and 19-year-old beneficiaries if it's re-elected.
The scheme was introduced in 2012 for 16 and 17-year-old beneficiaries and teenage parents up to 18.
Under the scheme, their rent and power is paid and they're given a charge card for other essentials.
They come under the guidance of an adult from a community organisation and have $50 a week spending money.
Social Development Minister Paula Bennett announced the extension today, confirming it was a National Party election policy.

This is timid. Some 19 year-old teen parents are already on the money management scheme because they entered the benefit system shy of 19 but must enrol with a  youth provider for at least 6 months.

Money management should be extended to any beneficiary who is repeatedly turning up at Work and Income needing extra hardship assistance. It's an especially justifiable policy to all those voters claiming to care about children experiencing hardship.

Assistance-in-kind is superior to money. It guarantees provision for basic needs and avoids the negative incentives that come with  'free' cash.

Independent individuals should be the ultimate aim, but in the interim, and by way of progressing that goal, a money management/assistance-in-kind regime is hard to argue with for any political party.

Cunliffe's poverty propaganda

In his campaign launch speech David Cunliffe said,

And we’ll tackle child poverty by increasing the minimum wage.

In the Child Poverty in New Zealand book by left-leaning Johnathan Boston and economist Simon Chapple there is a lengthy discussion about lifting minimum wages, implementing a living wage and the effect on child poverty. They summarise:

In short, the living wage proposal, whether implemented via an increase in the statutory minimum wage or through voluntary actions in particular sectors or industries, will do little to solve child poverty in New Zealand.
When we discussed this on Radio NZ Boston talked about the unemployment risks associated with raising the minimum wage, and I made the point that most people on the minimum wage aren't parents.

Yet Labour keep on rolling out this pointless anti-poverty policy.

Cunliffe concludes with another cherry-picked claim:

 We’ve seen more children in poverty...
Here are the official figures. By the favoured, highlighted measure there are the same number of children living in poverty as in the first year National was the government.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

ACT on track to win Epsom

Like many voters who read this blog, I am watching Epsom. Here is the result of Q&A's Colmar Brunton poll released today:

Who would you vote for with your electorate vote?
National Paul Goldsmith 44%
Act David Seymour 32%
Labour Michael Wood 10%
Green Julie Anne Genter 9%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O'Dea 0.8%
Independent Grace Haden 0.3%
Don't know 8%

Were you aware John key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate?
Yes 70%
No 28%
Don't know 2%

With this in mind, who would you now vote for with your electorate vote?
National Paul Goldsmith 31%
Act David Seymour 45%
Labour Michael Wood 9%
Green Julie Anne Genter 10%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O'Dea .08%
Independent Grace Haden 0.1%
Don't know 13%

Do you support or oppose arrangements like the one John Key has made with the Act Party in Epsom?
Support 47%
Oppose 37%
Don't know 16%

Which political party would you vote for?
National 60%
Green 16%
Labour 14%
NZ First 3.3%
Act 2.7%
Conservative 2.1%
Internet Mana 1.5%
Maori 0.6%
Don't know 6%

The important revelation here is that a significant percentage of Epsom voters don't know about Key's endorsement of ACT. Without that knowledge they will vote the wrong way. That is, they won't be voting for the outcome they want. A National-led government.