Correlation between welfare and poor outcomes

Treasury released these graphs yesterday.

What stands out from the above  is that of those considered at 'extreme risk' of poor outcomes 62% are Maori while only 7% are Pasifika. This highlights yet again the ill-advised practice of referring to 'troubled youth' as Polynesians. The Pacific culture has protective factors at work that aren't always present for Maori.

The next stand-out feature (unsurprising) is the very high mental health service use by those at extreme risk.

But also look at the correlation between being on a benefit for 5 or more years (cumulatively between ages 25-34) and being at extreme or high risk of poor outcomes.

Of the total 15-24 population, 25,713 will be on a benefit 5 or more years but not at risk of poor outcomes.  However, 26,698 - a small majority - are at high or extreme risk of poor outcomes.

And their childhoods?

Why anyone wants to resist reforming welfare is beyond me.

A Corrections history substantially increases benefit dependency

Interesting fact:

Of all people with some form of Corrections history post-1960 that are still under the age of 65 (390,581 people), 28% (or 108,462 people) were receiving a main benefit at 30 June 2013. This compares with approximately 11% of the NZ working-age population as a whole.

Actually, I find this level of benefit dependency surprisingly low.

What it does show is people with criminal convictions have a good chance of becoming self-sustaining.  I expect though that if the data was further analysed, those who serve prison-time (as opposed to community sentences) would have a higher incidence of benefit receipt.

It looks like MSD will do further work in this area, so my expectation will be confirmed in time.

Good for David Seymour

Turning down significant ministerial roles to focus on what is really important - his voluntary euthanasia bill and his party - impresses me. In fact I don't think Seymour has put a foot wrong yet. Certainly not your typical snout- in- the- trough type.