Treasury released these graphs yesterday.
What stands out from the above is that of those considered at 'extreme risk' of poor outcomes 62% are Maori while only 7% are Pasifika. This highlights yet again the ill-advised practice of referring to 'troubled youth' as Polynesians. The Pacific culture has protective factors at work that aren't always present for Maori.
The next stand-out feature (unsurprising) is the very high mental health service use by those at extreme risk.
But also look at the correlation between being on a benefit for 5 or more years (cumulatively between ages 25-34) and being at extreme or high risk of poor outcomes.
Of the total 15-24 population, 25,713 will be on a benefit 5 or more years but not at risk of poor outcomes. However, 26,698 - a small majority - are at high or extreme risk of poor outcomes.
And their childhoods?
Why anyone wants to resist reforming welfare is beyond me.