Friday, August 07, 2020

Banksies unscientific poll

 John Banks filled in for Peter Williams on Magic Talk this week. He spent this morning polling the audience on their Party vote intentions and received around 700 responses. I jotted down the result. Later Sean Plunket refused to share the result because it was "unscientific". Well, that's a given. But I will share it. Not particularly surprising given the audience:

Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements

Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements, the Housing Register, previously known as the state house waiting list:

Thursday, August 06, 2020

Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job

National's 'subsequent child' policy said a woman who has another baby on welfare would still have work obligations when that child turns one. It wasn't discouraging the habit though because seven years after implementation (in 2019) 6,000 babies were still  being born onto an existing benefit.

But a war isn't abandoned just because a battle is lost.  You mount another battle, a different strategy.

Not this government. They simply surrendered, held up a white flag saying, "Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job."

Labour says this is 'kind' to mothers who should not be expected to work in the first 1,000 days of their babies life. A luxury denied to mothers who return to work to pay mortgages and taxes. Stuff reported:

ACT employment spokeswoman Nicole McKee, who is a candidate for the party outside Parliament, said Labour was “promoting welfare as a lifestyle option and will harm kids in benefit-dependent households”.

“Many couples wait to start families in order to ensure they can afford to feed, clothe, house and support their children. Those couples who wait and plan are being forced to subsidise those whose lifestyle is dependent on welfare,” she said.

But consider this also. 

Children born in 2010, whose caregiver spent more than 80% of their next five years on a benefit, would be 38 times more likely to experience maltreatment by age two than those with no benefit history. 

This 'kick-start' sends children off on a downward spiral. 

Most of the mothers having babies on welfare are 'single' and disproportionately Maori.

Thanks to  Sensible Sentencing Trust research into the sentencing notes of 100 male offenders over 18 who have committed serious crimes- Murder, Manslaughter, Rape, Sexual Assault - we now know that most were brought up by a single mother or had migrated into the care of grandparents or OT.

The Labour/Green ideology does not value stable two-parent families despite eons of evidence proving they are good for children.

It appals me that not only do they blindfold themselves to the facts but barge off pigheadedly in the opposite direction. And the Children's Commissioner support for this latest move utterly dismays.


Wednesday, August 05, 2020

The unrepresentative unemployment rate

According to Statistics NZ the June quarter unemployment rate dropped to 4%

These figures are derived from a 15,000 household survey and extrapolated.

ACTUAL numbers on the combined Jobseeker benefit and Covid Income Relief Payment at July 24, 2020 are 212,397.

A couple of reasons the numbers are so different are:

1/ Someone working just a few hours is not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey but can qualify for the Jobseeker benefit

2/ Someone who has been made redundant and receiving the Covid Income Relief Payment temporarily might not be looking for work right so is also not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey.

Then there is the not inconsequential matter of the 452,425 currently employed on a wage subsidy...

Exceptional turn out for ACT's Wellington launch

I've been around ACT for a long time. If anything convinces me the momentum building in the polls is real, the turn-out at the Wellington launch last night did. It was also an unusually young crowd for ACT. I talked to a young women who'd driven down from Wanganui with her partner who hadn't even been born when I first took an interest in the party. 

The highlight for me was 27 year-old Brooke van Velden. I'd never met her or heard her speak and she impressed me immensely. Quietly spoken, just the right measure of emotion, compelling content and an easy presence, she strikes me as a safe pair of hands. And David Seymour has come a long way from the youth wing of ACT. He's an accomplished, quick and entertaining speaker handling audience questions with candour and good humour.

Just a brief report as I can find no other in the media although I believe some journalists were in attendance.

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

ACT supporters "sceptical about the state generally"

Apparently, a Stuff-Massey University survey of voters showed:

ACT voters, for instance, while saying that they felt safe in their own neighbourhood, were more likely to say the police were not doing a good job at protecting communities.

“If you’re an ACT Party supporter, you’re very sort of sceptical about government generally and about the state generally. And so you're more likely, I think, to give any agency of the state a negative rating.”

 Back in June I wrote a post about how the police failed to resolve 87% of property crimes within the year. That fact is from their own annual report. Does that represent a police force "doing a good job of protecting communities"?

In May I wrote a post about how the number of prisoners on remand has doubled. The justice system is not functioning properly.

Those are just two recent instances of my skepticism about state agencies.