Thursday, January 20, 2022

How does this claim stack up?

 Some more background on this claim from the MSD Minister today would be useful:

"People on a benefit for 1-2 years and four years or more getting into work increased by 96.9 percent and 93.2 percent respectively. Those on a benefit for 2-4 years saw the year-on-year exit into work rise by 129.8 per cent."

That level of data depth isn't publicly available.

The only data I can immediately access shows that in the Dec 2020 quarter, 26,992 people left a benefit for work. In the Dec 2021 quarter the figure increased to 27,423 - or 431 individuals. 

That's a 1.6% increase between the two quarters.

For three duration of dependency groups (1-2, 2-4 and 4+ years) to show an average increase of "getting into work" of 106.6 percent their absolute numbers must be very small.

Looked at another way, it appears the vast majority of people on benefits who left for work in the Dec 21 quarter had been on welfare for less than a year