Thursday, January 20, 2022

How does this claim stack up?

 Some more background on this claim from the MSD Minister today would be useful:

"People on a benefit for 1-2 years and four years or more getting into work increased by 96.9 percent and 93.2 percent respectively. Those on a benefit for 2-4 years saw the year-on-year exit into work rise by 129.8 per cent."

That level of data depth isn't publicly available.

The only data I can immediately access shows that in the Dec 2020 quarter, 26,992 people left a benefit for work. In the Dec 2021 quarter the figure increased to 27,423 - or 431 individuals. 

That's a 1.6% increase between the two quarters.

For three duration of dependency groups (1-2, 2-4 and 4+ years) to show an average increase of "getting into work" of 106.6 percent their absolute numbers must be very small.

Looked at another way, it appears the vast majority of people on benefits who left for work in the Dec 21 quarter had been on welfare for less than a year


Unknown said...

Just reading Thomas Sowell, his points about the individual versus a data group might be relevant. While there has been a slight change in the data group there may have been a lot of people on benefits who have got jobs while at the same time new people coming on to benefits would maintain the group level. Martin North (Walk the World - Youtube) keeps making the same point, sometimes you have to go 'granular' as the data group doesn't tell you much if anything about what is happening at the individual level.

Zoe Black said...

Hey fellow DFA watcher ;)

I picked out this bit:
“Our response to COVID has helped to create a resilient labour market which in turn has ensured our economy remains strong. Protecting jobs and livelihoods, and supporting more jobseekers into work will continue to be a key priority of the Government,” Carmel Sepuloni said."

The Herald ran an article in November where 26,774 businesses were removed from the companies register in 8 months, which on the face of it seems incompatible with the above statement.