National window-dressing on welfare

Last week Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, could be heard waxing lyrical to Mike Hosking about the new partnering initiative, ChamberWorks, between his organisation and MSD (WINZ) to get recently unemployed people into jobs. These are people who have not long been on a benefit but have skills, and recent experience and attachment to the workforce.

MSD Minister Louise Upston says, "It makes sense for these two key groups to work together because MSD has the largest talent pipeline of workers in the country. They’re also able to support the recruitment process with access to training and online learning."

At first glance this seems like an eminently sensible idea.

But I am ever the skeptic. For starters, these short-term unemployed skilled types are quite capable of finding their own way back into the workforce. They will not be wanting to stay on a benefit any longer than absolutely necessary. According to AI there are 1,227 private employment services operating in NZ including the likes of Randstad, Adecco, Hays, Robert Walters, and the Accordant Group. Then there is SEEK. Right now, there are over 8,500 Auckland jobs listed on SEEK.

Obviously, after it eventually emerged mid-week that the number of people on a benefit is at a 12 year high, National is keen to be seen to be actively and innovatively working on the problem. They set a goal of reducing Jobseeker numbers to 140,000 by 2030 and the quickest way to do this is be all over the low-hanging fruit. Meanwhile ...

Imagine, if you will, a plugged bathtub filling from both taps while someone ladles with a teacup. That's what National is doing. Ladling with the cup. Scooping out the most employable jobseekers while the tap hoses in illiterate, unskilled, youths and young parents, as well as people who can't work due to a health problem (mental or physical) that our utterly inadequate health system has wait-listed.

My last post showed how the time people spend on welfare is getting longer and longer, with future estimated years up 35 percent from 10.6 in 2016/17 to 14.3 years in 2024/25.

If those numbers were shockingly high, consider how much worse they are for young people coming into the system. Those who begin on a Youth or Young Parent Payment will remain dependent for 25 years on average. For sole parents, the average future estimated time on benefit (which doesn't include existing time spent) is 17.5 years:

MSD's resources need to be directed at turning down the tap pressure. Maybe instead of partnering with the Chamber of Commerce it should be partnering more actively with the local health districts. Or with Family Planning. Or with Plunket.* Or high schools. And legislation needs to support these collaborations.

For instance, make becoming a single parent no longer an automatic entry into the benefit system, and signal and support this widely through the aforementioned organisations.

Lift the eligibility age for welfare to 25 (and shove out super entitlement age while you are at it.)

Introduce some time limits.

Maybe these are radical ideas (I've laid out an achievable plan previously) but something has to give. At least give us some concrete policies we can vote for in November.

Not window-dressing.

* Yes I realise all of these organisations now have Maori names but using them will not aid comprehension.)

RNZ catches up on news reported here over a month ago

Today RNZ catches up on news reported here over a month ago.

Why has it taken RNZ so long to catch up with the latest benefit numbers? Given the numbers are well up, it's right in their wheelhouse for pushing their anti-government agenda.

But for that matter, why has it taken the opposition so long to ask Parliamentary questions and begin attacking the government on this failure to reach one of their stated targets?

Perhaps because they know full well  that their own record on welfare is not at all flash.

For convenience, let's use RNZ's chart:

Under Labour, the percentage of the working-age population on a benefit rose from 9.8 to 11.8%

Under National it has risen further from 11.8 to 13.2%

But when the borders were closed, and employers were crying out for workers, Labour couldn't capitalise on the need. Labour made benefits easier to get on and easier to stay on. They linked them to wage inflation - a very bad idea revoked by National. Ardern's "kindness" brand only pulled more people into a system that is hard to escape for a great many.

Minister Louise Upston stated her case in Parliament yesterday:

"We inherited an economic downturn where close to 190,000 people were on the jobseeker benefit, and jobseeker numbers have been rising steadily since 2022, before we took office. Just yesterday, the COVID-19 royal commission inquiry found Labour’s increased spending drove up Government debt and inflation, which leads to higher unemployment. That’s why the forecast has always been due to get worse before it gets better. That’s why we’re fixing the basics and building a welfare system focused on getting more people into work...What we have done to fix the basics is create a far more active welfare system, including what we launched last week: an industry partnership with chambers of commerce up and down New Zealand, to support more New Zealanders into work."

National generally does better with welfare and reducing dependency but they never do enough. They focus mainly on those who are short-term unemployed  and don't change the settings that allow inter-generational, long-term dependence to continue.

That's why the average future expected time on a benefit keeps going up:

Let's hope if the coalition survives the 2026 election,  ACT gets to exercise far more influence in this area. Two forgotten words desperately in need of rehabilitation - Personal Responsibility.