Low income families do not universally appear in poor social statistics

 Another who thinks more money thrown at the problems of the "underclass" will make them go away.

Graeme MacCormick  believes taxing and distributing more to the "underclass" will reduce problems of, "...domestic violence, child abuse, crime and imprisonment rates, childhood poverty, alcohol and other drug abuse, poor health and educational outcomes." He blames the effects of colonisation on the tangata whenua,  the Douglas/Richardson economic reforms, and, if more money is the answer, than obviously, poverty. "Parents need sufficient" he writes "to give their children a positive start in life."

Over the past fifteen or so years this has become a familiar diagnosis and recommended remedy. But as New Zealand has become more ethnically diverse we see new groups emerging that are not necessarily wealthy. Seldom do they appear among the poor social statistics MacCormick describes. He could check negative stats from Oranga Tamariki,  and the Ministries of Health and Education to verify that Asian and Indian children are almost absent. Yet many live in low income homes. The difference? Strong, stable families with intact work ethics. Those characteristics nurture and protect children to a much greater extent than cash hand-outs. 

David Seymour: Quote of the Day

 

Describing the Prime Minister’s daily address, the ad nauseam “wash your hands and be kind,” tonight's TV3 News had Seymour saying,  

“The last time I was talked to like that was when I attended Horahora kindergarten.”

Relationship between benefit receipt and unemployment

 From MSD:

Trends in main benefit receipt are associated with the official unemployment rate

1. The Depression (D)– 1930s

2. The Wool Bust – (WB) mid-1960s

3. The First Oil Shock – (FOS) mid 1970s

4. The Second Oil Shock – (SOS) 1979 to early-1980s

5. Black Monday and the restructuring events of the 1980s and early 1990s –

(BMER) 1987-1992

6. The Asian Crises – (AC) late 1990s/early 2000s

7. The Global Financial Crises – (GFC) 2008 and arguably ongoing7

8. COVID-19 – (C19)

During the Depression (D) there were no unemployment benefits - just government work schemes.

Then there was a long sustained period of 'full' employment. This was aided by award rates, subsidies and low participation of women in the labourforce. Through stages 3,4 and 5 something unusual happened. The unemployment rate rose steeply paralleled understandably by receipt of benefits. But benefits overshot unemployment by a large margin through the early nineties and the gap has persisted since. Incapacity and sole parent benefits made the difference. If more families had remained intact the two lines would have stayed closer to each other. The male breadwinners set adrift often never worked again and ended up on invalid and sickness benefits which increasingly featured incapacity for psychiatric and psychological reasons adding to the gap.

So the title of the graph, "Trends in main benefit receipt are associated with the official unemployment rate" is on one hand an accurate description. But there were and are other social trends influencing the relationship.

Outrageous claim from a "trustworthy" source

Michelle Duff claims in an 'analysis' for "trustworthy, accurate and reliable" Stuff:

90 per cent of those who have lost their jobs post-Covid are women

Yesterday I quoted another source that debunked the number.

The shocking revelation – that of the 11,000 fewer people in paid employment, 10,000 of them were women - should be taken with a grain of salt, said KiwiBank economist Mary Jo Vergara, because the level of disruption during lockdown made it hard to conduct the survey.

“But I think the message there is clear - even if you adjust for some anomalies in the data you’d still see over 50 per cent, probably around 60 or 70 per cent of those who lost their jobs, would be women.”

But let's check the claim against MSD data:

(Left click on image to enlarge)

The annual increase uptake of Jobseeker benefit was GREATER for males.

It could be argued that females get locked out of Jobseeker if they have a working partner.

But that did not apply to the Covid Income Relief Payment for people made redundant after March.

The monthly increase uptake of  CIRP was GREATER for males.

And 22% more males than females are receiving CIRP.

This outrageous claim will become an urban myth unless we arm ourselves with the facts and reject it.

What a whinger

What a whinger Michelle Duff is. Writing a piece about how hard done by women have been during the Covid crisis she says:

" 90 per cent of those who have lost their jobs post-Covid are women"

 Well that's BS for starters. Look at her own link.

 The shocking revelation – that of the 11,000 fewer people in paid employment, 10,000 of them were women - should be taken with a grain of salt, said KiwiBank economist Mary Jo Vergara, because the level of disruption during lockdown made it hard to conduct the survey.

“But I think the message there is clear - even if you adjust for some anomalies in the data you’d still see over 50 per cent, probably around 60 or 70 per cent of those who lost their jobs, would be women.”

While men were the hardest hit in previous recessions, this time around it’s part-time workers in the female-dominated industries – retail and hospitality – who are losing their jobs.

So let's split the difference and call it 60%. Consider though that part-time workers are not as reliant on their income as full-time workers. It is often a benefit or Super top-up, or a contribution to the main household income. If it were men (who usually work full-time) being harder hit (which it may well yet turn out to be) it's very likely that would impact their female partners more than the loss of her part-time job. In any case the Covid Inome Relief Payment was made available to women who had lost part-time jobs and had partners. Forgot to mention that.

Duff goes on to cite a survey which finds,

Around 76 per cent of women said childcare is holding them back, standing in the way of career achievements. 

Well frigging well don't have children. Don't make it everybody else's problem.

...women wanted pay equity, better laws to combat bullying and harassment, and for paid parental leave to be granted to both parents...improving sick leave to include looking after dependants, and funding daycares to provide more flexible hours.

Oddly enough the more women get in respect of legislated work-life balance policies, the fewer children they have. So maybe it is just complaining for the sake of it.

Almost half of all respondents said they had experienced violence or abuse from an intimate partner. 

Each time I see a statistic about the prevalence of violence or abuse from a partner it has increased from the last (which was BTW when recently at the Warehouse Stationary where signs everywhere claimed one in three women experienced such. I was asked to make a donation to the cause and declined).

Mobilising the women’s vote can win elections, with 2017 showing that women are overall more likely to vote than men.

To capture that vote, political parties need to get serious about improving women’s lives.

There it is. Who does identity politics the best? Who was the PM's biographer?

Duff's whining on behalf of 'women' (an imaginary collective) is no more than a blatant effort to gender-gerrymander the election result. 

 

 

Child poverty: failing to make a difference

"One of our goals and aspirations as a Government is to make New Zealand the best place in the world to be a child."

Jacinda Ardern, PM of New Zealand

 “Child poverty was a national crisis before Covid-19 and without urgent action, it risks turning into a catastrophe.” 

Anita Baker, Mayor of Porirua

After all the money she has thrown at the problem (see first link above) the PM has made no difference. In Porirua matters are only getting worse. According to the Mayor, "“Whether it’s school attendance, oral health, hospital visits or social housing waiting lists, the report paints a grim picture. These indicators weren’t looking good even before Covid. The danger now is that they accelerate in the wrong direction.” 

Society's fault too many Maori are in prison?

 Here's a proposition to explore:

"...the extent to which society provides housing, health, and benefits/welfare is a critical factor in whether people avoid the justice system in the first place."

Coming from the current crop of public service apologists this suggests it is the fault of "society" that people are in prison.

It's extracted from a foreword  by the CE of Corrections or  Ara Poutama Aotearoa, a name which has been "... gifted to us after extensive consultation with Māori communities and iwi."

My attention was drawn to this document  after I OIAed Corrections asking why they had ceased publication of Practice: The New Zealand Corrections Journal, a $10,000 six-monthly value-for-money collection of articles penned by those working with prisoners. The answer is the journal has been put on hold while they focus on Hokai Rangi, the new Maori strategy.

But back to the statement. Most people in prison have more than a passing acquaintance with state housing, public health services and the benefit system.

Is it too much or not enough?

Unhealthy health professionals

It is unedifying when one professional attacks another. It might even be described as 'bullying' not that I have much truck with that over-used catchcry.

I listened carefully to Simon Thornley yesterday speaking to Peter Williams on Magic Talk. Williams canvassed the professional relationship between Simon and Rod Jackson, who had a piece in the NZ Herald the same day. At no point did Thornley criticise Jackson but kept firmly on his own course.

Today the Dompost has a lengthy piece canvassing the views of epidemiologists in New Zealand.

[Jackson] has little time for Thornley’s arguments, and says they should not be given any oxygen. “I don't understand why people are pushing these obviously completely wrong messages.”

“He [Thornley] is the only dissenter in the epidemiological community,” he says.

“It’s not like this is a discussion like a boxing match with two equal partners. What you’ve got is every experienced epidemiologist in the country supporting the Government’s elimination approach.

“We are all advising the Government, and we speak with one voice. And you have got a junior epidemiologist who is presenting a different case.”

He uses the word "silly" twice to describe Thornley's views.

For mine I am always glad when someone who has doubts expresses them. Again we are seeing this creeping pattern of thought-supression playing out with Covid 19. 

It's very unhealthy.

Babies taken into care

Two new evidence papers were released by Oranga Tamariki this month. The first calculates the risk of mothers who have a history of care and protection having their own child removed. I've run the numbers through a different calculation to assess population likelihood of a baby being removed based on the following data:

1,050 mothers out of 58,730 means 1.8% - or almost one in fifty 20-28 year-old mothers has a child removed.

If for argument's sake 18%* of all mothers are Maori (10,571) 536 removals means 5% - one in twenty 20-28 Maori mothers has a child removed. 

That's pretty high. One in every small class group.

The second brief looks at reasons why babies are removed:

"A random sample of cases for babies who were aged under 30 days when they were taken into care under s78 of the Oranga Tamariki Act was analysed to determine the reasons they were taken into care

In the sample:

• In cases of maternal alcohol and drug use, 59% involved methamphetamine and 44% involved alcohol

• Overall methampthetamine was a factor in half (49%) of entries to care in the sample

• Substance abuse was present in 65% of cases, and family violence present in 64%

• Neglect/deprivation and emotional abuse were present in over 50% of cases"

* According to the last census 16.5% of the population is Maori. But it is a young population and Maori women tend to become mothers earlier so 18% may be too low. If I entered 23% the percentage of mothers with a baby removal would drop to 4% - one in twenty five.

On equality of opportunity vs equality of outcome

Back to basics, I very much enjoyed the following timeless piece written by John Mendzela after the 2015 Rugby World Cup:

"We’ve won the Rugby World Cup again! But now it’s time for a resolution to make 2016 better than the year before. Something that matters. Here’s what you can do.

You’ve been hearing that the greatest economic and social problem of our time is inequality. Until now, you might have dismissed that notion. You might have said it was enough to give everyone a fair go – a reasonable chance to compete, and succeed through persistence and hard work. Just create that equality of opportunity.

But think harder. That’s not enough. It can’t be. Life teaches us some people will take those equal opportunities and do something with them, while others simply won’t. In fact, equality of opportunity just encourages individual differences to shine. What we need is equality of outcome – making sure everybody ends up the same.

It’s a big challenge. Where to start? How can Kiwis show we really care, and inspire others? It’s obvious. Start where we’re known best globally – on the rugby pitch. Take the All Blacks – a grotesque example of inequality. They score lots more points than opponents, win almost all their games, and collect far more international awards than other teams. It’s an unequal outcome, and so it’s unfair. A national disgrace!

It’s time to put that right. Please join KAURI – Kiwis Against Unjust Rugby Inequality.To start, KAURI will tackle inequality of “income” – the points that get scored in rugby.To ensure the teams have equal outcomes, we just need to total up the points scored in a game and share them out evenly at the end. 25-15 becomes 20-20. Simple!

Achieving equal outcomes for players will be harder. Luckily, we have all those TV statistics. Take the 20 shared points for the team, divide them up in proportion to the time players spent on the pitch, and credit each one with scoring that many. It gets complicated. We’ll need computers. But it’ll be equal – maybe 1.17 points per hour.

That will ensure equal outcomes going forward. But KAURI can’t stop there. There’s inequality of “wealth” to deal with too. New Zealand can set an example to combat injustice and achieve equal outcomes for all. It won’t be easy, but let’s find a way to hand back those Rugby World Cups – especially the latest - and equalise World Cup outcomes for all teams everywhere. And then we can re-write all the record books…

KAURI needs your support. Please join us. These famous Kiwi rugby names have:

“It felt good at the time, winning all those games. But it was wrong. I know that now. I’ll dedicate my new career to equal rugby outcomes with KAURI.” (Richie McCaw)

“When I think back to all my World Cup tries, I feel really ashamed. Opponents tried hard too, and never scored any. KAURI can redistribute all mine.” (Julian Savea)

“KAURI will lead rugby into a fairer future. Things will change, but we’ll still have challenges. Future All Black teams will be famous for kind tackles.” (Steve Hansen) "

An ugly fantasy promulgated by a supremely patronising PM

The kind one is so very unkind when she relishes people hanging on to hear what is going to happen to their lives, their families, jobs and businesses, but blathers on endlessly. It's so disrespectful, so self-centered and self-serving.

No Prime Minister has ever behaved so autocratically and patronisingly.

We cannot eliminate this virus, and to keep on telling the gullible we can is fantasy, ugly fantasy.

Covid-Plan B

 The formation of Covid - Plan B has only just come to my attention:

"Epidemiologist Simon Thornley says the new virus outbreaks and lockdown responses are proof that New Zealand must, as the WHO has recently said, learn to live with the virus."

More from the press release

And more about the group

Great to see an alternative view to 'elimination' expressed.

Banksies unscientific poll

 John Banks filled in for Peter Williams on Magic Talk this week. He spent this morning polling the audience on their Party vote intentions and received around 700 responses. I jotted down the result. Later Sean Plunket refused to share the result because it was "unscientific". Well, that's a given. But I will share it. Not particularly surprising given the audience:

Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements

Another graphic illustration of Labour's achievements, the Housing Register, previously known as the state house waiting list:

Source

Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job

National's 'subsequent child' policy said a woman who has another baby on welfare would still have work obligations when that child turns one. It wasn't discouraging the habit though because seven years after implementation (in 2019) 6,000 babies were still  being born onto an existing benefit.

But a war isn't abandoned just because a battle is lost.  You mount another battle, a different strategy.

Not this government. They simply surrendered, held up a white flag saying, "Have a baby every three years and you'll never have to get a job."

Labour says this is 'kind' to mothers who should not be expected to work in the first 1,000 days of their babies life. A luxury denied to mothers who return to work to pay mortgages and taxes. Stuff reported:

ACT employment spokeswoman Nicole McKee, who is a candidate for the party outside Parliament, said Labour was “promoting welfare as a lifestyle option and will harm kids in benefit-dependent households”.

“Many couples wait to start families in order to ensure they can afford to feed, clothe, house and support their children. Those couples who wait and plan are being forced to subsidise those whose lifestyle is dependent on welfare,” she said.

Quite.

But consider this also. 

Children born in 2010, whose caregiver spent more than 80% of their next five years on a benefit, would be 38 times more likely to experience maltreatment by age two than those with no benefit history. 

This 'kick-start' sends children off on a downward spiral. 

Most of the mothers having babies on welfare are 'single' and disproportionately Maori.

Thanks to  Sensible Sentencing Trust research into the sentencing notes of 100 male offenders over 18 who have committed serious crimes- Murder, Manslaughter, Rape, Sexual Assault - we now know that most were brought up by a single mother or had migrated into the care of grandparents or OT.

The Labour/Green ideology does not value stable two-parent families despite eons of evidence proving they are good for children.

It appals me that not only do they blindfold themselves to the facts but barge off pigheadedly in the opposite direction. And the Children's Commissioner support for this latest move utterly dismays.

 

The unrepresentative unemployment rate

According to Statistics NZ the June quarter unemployment rate dropped to 4%

These figures are derived from a 15,000 household survey and extrapolated.

ACTUAL numbers on the combined Jobseeker benefit and Covid Income Relief Payment at July 24, 2020 are 212,397.

A couple of reasons the numbers are so different are:

1/ Someone working just a few hours is not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey but can qualify for the Jobseeker benefit

2/ Someone who has been made redundant and receiving the Covid Income Relief Payment temporarily might not be looking for work right so is also not defined as 'unemployed' in the survey.

Then there is the not inconsequential matter of the 452,425 currently employed on a wage subsidy...

Exceptional turn out for ACT's Wellington launch

I've been around ACT for a long time. If anything convinces me the momentum building in the polls is real, the turn-out at the Wellington launch last night did. It was also an unusually young crowd for ACT. I talked to a young women who'd driven down from Wanganui with her partner who hadn't even been born when I first took an interest in the party. 

The highlight for me was 27 year-old Brooke van Velden. I'd never met her or heard her speak and she impressed me immensely. Quietly spoken, just the right measure of emotion, compelling content and an easy presence, she strikes me as a safe pair of hands. And David Seymour has come a long way from the youth wing of ACT. He's an accomplished, quick and entertaining speaker handling audience questions with candour and good humour.

Just a brief report as I can find no other in the media although I believe some journalists were in attendance.

ACT supporters "sceptical about the state generally"

Apparently, a Stuff-Massey University survey of voters showed:

ACT voters, for instance, while saying that they felt safe in their own neighbourhood, were more likely to say the police were not doing a good job at protecting communities.

“If you’re an ACT Party supporter, you’re very sort of sceptical about government generally and about the state generally. And so you're more likely, I think, to give any agency of the state a negative rating.”

 Back in June I wrote a post about how the police failed to resolve 87% of property crimes within the year. That fact is from their own annual report. Does that represent a police force "doing a good job of protecting communities"?

In May I wrote a post about how the number of prisoners on remand has doubled. The justice system is not functioning properly.

Those are just two recent instances of my skepticism about state agencies. 

Warranted?

Jobseeker numbers were on the rise well before Covid

Since Labour took office the number of people on the Jobseeker benefit has risen steadily in spite of the reported low unemployment rate. I've blogged numerous times about the divergence. The following just-released MSD graph displays it starkly. The blue line provides the source of NZ's official unemployment rate. It continued a broadly downward trend after 2017 whereas the red line starts increasing.

The point is that Labour will blame high Jobseeker numbers on Covid but that's only partly true. 

The upward trend pre-existed the economic response to the virus.

A changing picture

Source

JS-WR = Job Seeker Work Ready