Monday, April 27, 2020

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Why did the world go ballistic over Covid 19?

I keep trying to figure out why the world went ballistic over Covid 19.

There's been a string of scary viruses but  international panic didn't ensue. Deadly influenza circulates but international panic didn't ensue.

Yes, first world societies have become increasingly risk averse and legislated to reflect that. Health and safety is a suffocating, saturating blanket which employs thousands directly and indirectly. Its tentacles reach further and wider.

But I think there's more. The world has been primed with hysteria over the spectre of rising seas, the extinction of species, and searing temperatures that will become frankly non survivable. In the very near future no less. The masses appear to believe these predictions based mostly on modelling, some manipulated imagery and an acceptance that the science was settled and the scientists infallible. We are collectively cowering and unable to control our destiny.

Then, along comes a new and unknown threat. Covid 19.

The threat pretty quickly magnifies with modelling. We are conditioned to trust modelling because modelling gave us all the climate change predictions which are now part of our wall paper. Our articles of faith.

So a critical mass is already scared witless. The media provides evidence of that daily.

BUT at last a threat we can exercise some control over. We can don our masks and keep our distance. Make lifestyle changes with immediate individual consequences if not collective. Quickly we are aided and abetted by the authorities. Perhaps most importantly, validated.

Lock down, Stay home, Stay safe.

What relief.

Trouble is, one man's relief is another man's aggravation.



"Millions of cases; small amount of death"

I spent an hour watching this and found it rather compelling.

Two practicing doctors - specializing in immunology and microbiology - who are trying persuade the governor of California to end their lock down. This is the press conference they called on Wednesday last week.

"Acclaim for the PM boosts Labour in the polls – but voters may not be so kind as the recession bites"

A cut and paste from Point of Order:

"...is it   a  winning  narrative  first to exaggerate the  catastrophic  number of  deaths  likely from the coronvirus,  striking panic  into  the population,   and  then to claim “We saved you”?

That narrative  will not  resonate  with  small  business  owners   whose  dreams have been  shattered  by  the way the government   has operated  in the Covid-19  lockdown. Already many  are  convinced  the government’s  lockdown rules   have  been  far  too stringent,  an over-reaction  to  academic  modelling  that  was  wildly   inaccurate.

They are  asking   why   NZ  didn’t  follow   Australia’s  example  in  allowing  small and  medium  businesses  to continue  operating .

Then there is the problem with the  word  “kindness”.   It worked very well  for the  Prime  Minister   as  she steered the country through  the threatened  crisis.   But  how   will  that  go  if  unemployment   reaches  10% or  more of  the  workforce?

The danger  for the PM  and her ministers  is  that hundreds  of thousands  of  voters   may come to believe   they were  hoodwinked  into  being confined  in  their  cells  for the duration.

That belief,  if  mixed    with  socialist  policy solutions  for the  blitz  on  the economy  subsequent  to  the  pandemic,  could   prove a    fatal  political  cocktail.  The  record  shows  the  Ardern  coalition  carries too  much deadweight  in Cabinet   when it comes to framing  and implementing  policy.

Peter Dunne   summed it up  neatly:

“Critical to this whole process of crisis management is there being an actual crisis to manage.  That has been clearly the case in places like the US, Britain, Italy and Spain, for example, as the numbers of cases and deaths have been spiralling out of control and the public reaction has been one of desperate panic.

“While the potential impact for NZ was just as serious, the perverse consequence of acting early to avert the extent of the crisis has been that the extremes seen overseas have been averted. But an inevitable consequence is that some now question whether there was ever a crisis here in the first place”

What won’t  escape voters  is that  the  billions of  dollars    being spent  by the government as a  result of its decision to  fight  the pandemic in the  way   it did   will have to  be repaid,  not  just  by the  current generation of   taxpayers but by future  generations — and the  prosperity  which New Zealanders were  enjoying just a few  months  ago  may  not   return    any  time   soon.

So,   as   voters  approach the  ballot  box to cast their votes,  will   phrases like  “ Be  kind”  and  “we are  all  in this  together”   still be ringing in  their  ears?"

Complete article here

Personally I don't think there are any 'buts' or 'maybes' about it. It is one of the few comforting thoughts I have currently. She's gone come September ...

Thursday, April 23, 2020

NZ - The little engine that couldn't

NZ has always been  'the little engine that could.' It's endearing imagery but  also powerfully symbolic.

But thanks to our leadership and their reckless decision-making now compounded by dogmatic digging-in, we are fast becoming the little engine that couldn't.

Today exactly what many have predicted has begun. Pharmac backtracks on a cancer drug that could have saved 1,400 lives a year because, "it can no longer afford to make the investment." In a headlong rush to save the lives of an unknown but over-stated quantity,  the lives of a known number will be lost.

The economy, our very lifeblood, was all but switched off with no advice from people whose job it is to understand and appreciate  its criticality. I still can't work out why. Maybe Grant Robertson thought that NZ was  in a relatively strong position debt-wise and he could take risks, enormous risks with it. But I am dismayed and disgusted by how many people think it's a mere matter of switch off - switch on. Just like that. Hence their patronising chiding of the rest of us to 'just be patient. 'It's only a few more days in your bubble'. Or worse, their snitching to the authorities.

Hell's bells. Have these idiots (many deriving their security from Super or a public service salary)  really thought any further than the end of their twitchy noses? They seem incapable of joining the dots beyond just A to B. Austerity will come as a rude and rough shock and they will deserve it.

Everyone of us is a domino to some degree.

Many have all ready fallen over. Tragically, today it was lung cancer patient's turn

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is a government big enough to take away everything that you have." 

Monday, April 20, 2020

ANYONE FOR A PROTEST?

OK. People everywhere are banging away on their keyboards (especially on KiwiBlog) and that's fine. But all the angry frustrated commenting  does is dissipate the anger and frustration.

The economy is dying in front of us.

The modelling that caused the move to level 4 has been subsequently discredited.

There is enough evidence now to convince that the cure IS worse than the disease.

Every day business cannot operate their prognosis worsens.

I would go and stand on the lawn at Parliament with a banner conveying any one of these messages (and there are more) but I'd be swiftly removed under the new laws the police have been given (though the sole climate change protester stayed there for weeks).

Three people made sense to me yesterday and none was the PM. Sir Ray Avery (we cannot eliminate Covid), Oliver Hartwich (the economy is getting sicker by the day - exponentially) and Ian Harrison (the modelling the govt relied on was flawed.)

We should be moving out of Level 4 right now and to 2 if not 1.

If you are in the Wellington area and feel like I do email me.

"The Statisticians That Killed New Zealand"

A response to the Covid crisis strategy from Sir Ray Avery (if you haven't already seen it):

The most worrisome of words routinely used by Jacinda Adern, Ashley Bloomfield and Shaun Hendy is the rhetoric around New Zealand's mission to eradicate COVID-19 in New Zealand .
This has no scientific validity and if we continue on this course to get our infection rates down to zero then our country will become bankrupt for no good reason.

Over-Arderned

The Dominion Post features no less than five images of Jacinda Ardern this morning. On the front page, pages 7 and 8, and 13 and 14. Perhaps an editorial decision was taken to fill the void left by avoidable women's mags.

This led me to reflect yet again how visible previous leaders would have been in a similar crisis.

I cannot for instance imagine Helen Clark appearing daily to make housekeeping-type  announcements.Neither can I envisage John Key being so heavily involved in the minutiae.

Not a big fan of the whole societal love of 'leadership'  I do accept that at a certain level good leaders are vital.The best I have experienced are delegaters; people who nurture the abilities  around them and who keep their powder dry for the really important stuff.

As someone who will never vote for Labour the PM's 'over-exposure' is my perception and my problem - not hers.

But will it remain that way? The cult of personality is very fickle. The biggest fans can become the greatest detractors. Quite quickly.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Six in 10 of the 'employed' now on a wage subsidy

The most recent data for the employed was December 2019 when 2,648,000 people were working.

We now know that at April 10, a week ago, 1,236,875 people were being paid a wage subsidy.

47% of the country's workers are sitting idle.


Update: Treasury is providing different data saying "The number of Jobseeker Support beneficiaries has jumped sharply. Total wage subsidies payments reached $8.9 billion on 9 April, benefiting 1.4 million people." That would represent 53% of workers.

Update two: According to this source, 1.6 million at Friday April 17 - 60%

The article says, "By Friday afternoon, the government's wage subsidy was supporting 1.6 million workers - half the entire work force." I am using a different denominator - the closest approximation available of the number working before the crisis. The workforce includes people who were not.


The article also says, "Not every worker receiving the wage subsidy will lose their job - many are in construction, which is one of the areas tipped for boom times once the lockdown restrictions end."

Tipped by who? That's not what I am hearing firsthand.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

What use is empathy?



But the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff isn’t empty. It is crammed full of casualties. Right now 1.4 million existing on wage subsidies wondering if or when they will work again. 30,000 more eking out an existence on a benefit wondering if or when they will work again.

Empathy is a rather useless trait because it merely requires you to 'walk a mile' in EVERYONE else's shoes. Leading exactly where? 

The decisions required from a government should be utilitarian. Based on the greatest good for the greatest number. I see no evidence that they have been.



Friday, April 17, 2020

Jobseeker benefit numbers and wage subsidies at April 10, 2020






Source

The cost of the wage subsidy is now twice that of the ANNUAL spend on working age benefits (see my previous post)

Thursday, April 16, 2020

The lie I really take issue with

This is the lie I really take issue with.

Verbatim from the Prime Minister at today's  press conference:


"Three and a half weeks ago NZ was in a unique position. Unlike other countries we had enough lead-in before Covid 19 reached our shores. That meant we could make a choice.
We could allow a wave of devastation to hit us like it has in other countries or we could take decisive  preemptive action by going hard and early into lock down to stop the spread of the disease in its tracks. We chose action and the indications at this stage are promising. We will never know what would have happened if we'd taken the first path but the projections were for thousands of deaths if the virus got away on us, many more sick and in hospital and the COUNTRY AND OUR ECONOMY GRINDING TO A HALT REGARDLESS."
Why would the economy have ground to a halt?

Can anybody explain that to me?

We know that Covid 19 is relatively harmless to the working age, those who keep the economy afloat. Hospitals in crisis would be a dreadful but a contained catastrophe. As it stands nobody has been going there anyway.



Lives have a value. Pharmac calculates it somehow. Hospital administrators do it all the time when juggling waiting lists.  New Zealand may have sustained much greater loss of life if it hadn't gone into lock down BUT the economy, notwithstanding the damage from external factors beyond our control, would not have ground to a halt.

It would have been hurting, undoubtedly, but the government, with an unholy rush of blood to the head committed the proverbial extremely unkind act of 'kicking a man when he's down.'




Wage subsidy cost already supersedes ANNUAL working-age welfare benefit bill

Wage subsidy data at April 3:




Just to give you an idea of how much $5.361 billion is, it equates to:

MORE than the ANNUAL combined Jobseeker, Supported Living Payment and Sole Parent Support cost of $4.525 billion

or

37 percent of the ANNUAL Super bill at $14.562 billion



Not that I begrudge the claimants. I save my bitter resentment for this reckless government.




Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Bit of much-needed excitement



Amazing display by mother nature today. You can see the 3-4 metre wall of wave in Muritai Bay and in the foreground is sea where it has never been before. Not in the 25 years I have lived here.
A park bench and pontoon had both disappeared. A young man sped past on his motor scooter heading south with surfboard tucked under his arm. I smiled quietly wondering how the police launch was going to cope with that.


And while I enjoy a bracing bumpy flight into Wellington Airport (remember airports??) you can leave me out of ferry trips across heaving seas.



Monday, April 13, 2020

Good example of the confusion that abounds

The opinion of a Timaru lawyer, questioning the legality of the lockdown, a better communicator than dear leader:

"In the meantime, if we comply with the rules, enforceable or not - because they are good law - then we will get to the end of the 4 weeks, flatten the curve, and carry on in restricted fashion with a health service able to cope with whatever comes its way, which is the point of all this. After all, the virus has cemented its place in our health environment and in the fashion of viruses, has secured its own survival by not killing everyone it meets." (My emphasis)

This guy makes sense to me and yet when I click on the embedded link midway through the article I read this:

Alert level 4 - eliminate

And yesterday: "Almost two-thirds of New Zealanders are willing to have the current lockdown extended so Covid-19 can be eradicated, a new survey has found."

There is a distinct whiff of the Mad Hatters tea party about all of this. And it's getting stronger by the day.

Still we've had all manner of bureaucratic bullshit going on for a while in this country. Smokefree Aotearoa 2025, Predator Free 2050 and most recently Road to Zero - the elimination of all road deaths. We haven't even achieved that in the lockdown!



Saturday, April 11, 2020

Australia versus NZ in Covid cases

Interesting graph from Michael Reddell's Croaking Cassandra another of the blogs I follow, just more spasmodically:



I'm away to take in the excellent Easter racing coming in from Royal Randwick in Sydney this afternoon featuring some of New Zealand's best horses and jockeys.

Nothing to watch in this country.

New Corona Virus Assistance Announced

Due to the current upset situation caused by the Corona Virus in the economy, the Government has decided to implement a scheme to put workers of 50 years of age and above on early, mandatory retirement, thus creating jobs and reducing unemployment. This scheme will be known as RAPE (Retire Aged People Early).

Persons selected to be RAPED can apply to the Government to be considered for the SHAFT program (Special Help After Forced Termination).

Persons who have been RAPED and SHAFTED will be reviewed under the SCREW program (System Covering Retired-Early Workers).

A person may be RAPED once, SHAFTED twice and SCREWED as many times as the Government deems appropriate.

Persons who have been RAPED could get AIDS (Additional Income for Dependents & Spouse) or HERPES (Half Earnings for Retired Personnel Early Severance).

Obviously persons who have AIDS or HERPES will not be SHAFTED or SCREWED any further by the Government.

Persons who are not RAPED and are staying on will receive as much SHIT (Special High Intensity Training) as possible. The Government has always prided themselves on the amount of SHIT they give our citizens.

Should you feel that you do not receive enough SHIT, please bring this to the attention of your Congressman, who has been trained to give you all the SHIT you can handle.

Sincerely,
The Committee for Economic Value of Individual Lives (E.V.I.L.)

PS - Due to recent budget cuts as well as current market conditions, The
Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.

At least the blogs aren't in lockdown

The bloggers I read daily have sprung to life over the last two weeks. People never short on opinion have provided me with much needed entertainment and solace.

My favourite female blogger, the arch contrarian, Cactus Kate, who I would gladly adopt if she ever becomes orphaned, the epitome of everything Jacinda tells us not to be, is off the leash and utterly unrestrained.

Tribal National farmer Ele Ludemann writing from the Home Paddock is altogether more pragmatic, sensible and measured - to be taken in smaller doses. At least she's not a leftie. And she quotes Thomas Sowell frequently.

The assorted old codgers at No Minister produce some startlingly good insights but regular trolls turn the response room into a biff and bash session where quite thoughtless and stupid things are said by people who I suspect aren't usually thoughtless and stupid. That may be overly charitable on my part.

Over at Kiwiblog the comments are far more interesting than the posts (gems from David Garret especially). But new parents... they lose it for a while.

Being a libertarian slacker now made to sit up ramrod-straight by unprecedented government 'interventions' (Ele would approve of my restraint) I go to Not PC for my obligatory objectivism lesson (I don't often reach the end of them shhh).

Bob Jones needs no intro from me. He promising a big reveal on Easter Monday. How droll.

And my Pahiatua friend has presented us with a window onto Main St seen through his particular sometimes perverse lens.

At a time when the locked-up, who are losing the will to live, are being commanded to be gushingly thankful to those who still have jobs and incomes, can I say I am genuinely grateful to the bloggers who make me laugh out loud.

Friday, April 10, 2020

COVID knocks off Wahine Day acknowledgement

I thought I'd wait till well into the day to see if the media were going to do the usual Wahine Day remembrance. Zilch.
The Wahine heavily listing shortly before sinking in Wellington Harbour on April 10, 1968. Lifeboats are just visible on the left.
It is April 10. But COVID obsession overrode recall of New Zealand's worst ever maritime disaster.
The day and date is etched on my memory.

I don't get it

Apparently our leader is a great communicator. She spells stuff out really clearly. For example 'Stay home' and 'Act like you have covid 19' and 'Be kind'. All unambiguous instructions.

But it isn't easy to follow instructions if you don't understand why. Here's a simple analogy. I'd never used a clothes drier before. I was told it was important to remove the fluff from the container where it accumulates. Because I didn't know why it was important I always let it build up. Then one day I was told you need to remove the fluff because it might catch fire. SAY WHAT? Now I remove it regularly.

So, the great communicator hasn't told me why I have to follow her clear instructions.

1/ To stop the hospitals being overrun?

They are currently at around 50 percent capacity apparently. Casual staff are redundant. How long can that state of affairs persist?

2/ To eradicate the virus?

So our borders will be permanently closed thereafter? That makes no sense whatsoever.

3/ To wait for a vaccine?

We're in lock down for a year or more? Anyway the flu kills more people and I've never had a flu jab. Along with thousands of others.

I'm not a massively smart person. My attention  span leaves a lot to be desired. But I don't get it.

And everyone else seems to because they just keep saying 'look at Italy, look at the US'. Yes? And we have nothing like that happening here right now. Touch wood the numbers are trending down even.

Yet every day that passes the government persists with more wealth destruction and more borrowing.

And more messages about 'staying the distance'. But still no explanation about why.