Saturday, April 25, 2020

"Acclaim for the PM boosts Labour in the polls – but voters may not be so kind as the recession bites"

A cut and paste from Point of Order:

"...is it   a  winning  narrative  first to exaggerate the  catastrophic  number of  deaths  likely from the coronvirus,  striking panic  into  the population,   and  then to claim “We saved you”?

That narrative  will not  resonate  with  small  business  owners   whose  dreams have been  shattered  by  the way the government   has operated  in the Covid-19  lockdown. Already many  are  convinced  the government’s  lockdown rules   have  been  far  too stringent,  an over-reaction  to  academic  modelling  that  was  wildly   inaccurate.

They are  asking   why   NZ  didn’t  follow   Australia’s  example  in  allowing  small and  medium  businesses  to continue  operating .

Then there is the problem with the  word  “kindness”.   It worked very well  for the  Prime  Minister   as  she steered the country through  the threatened  crisis.   But  how   will  that  go  if  unemployment   reaches  10% or  more of  the  workforce?

The danger  for the PM  and her ministers  is  that hundreds  of thousands  of  voters   may come to believe   they were  hoodwinked  into  being confined  in  their  cells  for the duration.

That belief,  if  mixed    with  socialist  policy solutions  for the  blitz  on  the economy  subsequent  to  the  pandemic,  could   prove a    fatal  political  cocktail.  The  record  shows  the  Ardern  coalition  carries too  much deadweight  in Cabinet   when it comes to framing  and implementing  policy.

Peter Dunne   summed it up  neatly:

“Critical to this whole process of crisis management is there being an actual crisis to manage.  That has been clearly the case in places like the US, Britain, Italy and Spain, for example, as the numbers of cases and deaths have been spiralling out of control and the public reaction has been one of desperate panic.

“While the potential impact for NZ was just as serious, the perverse consequence of acting early to avert the extent of the crisis has been that the extremes seen overseas have been averted. But an inevitable consequence is that some now question whether there was ever a crisis here in the first place”

What won’t  escape voters  is that  the  billions of  dollars    being spent  by the government as a  result of its decision to  fight  the pandemic in the  way   it did   will have to  be repaid,  not  just  by the  current generation of   taxpayers but by future  generations — and the  prosperity  which New Zealanders were  enjoying just a few  months  ago  may  not   return    any  time   soon.

So,   as   voters  approach the  ballot  box to cast their votes,  will   phrases like  “ Be  kind”  and  “we are  all  in this  together”   still be ringing in  their  ears?"

Complete article here

Personally I don't think there are any 'buts' or 'maybes' about it. It is one of the few comforting thoughts I have currently. She's gone come September ...

5 comments:

Mark Wahlberg said...

But Lindsay, its 1500 bucks,cant we take a stand and do something else to show we aint happy chappies?

Judge Holden said...

No, you’re right, Lindsay. We should have waited until it was too late and the bodies were piling up, like the US, Spain, Italy and the UK. No impact on their economies from this. Actually dealing with the problem and saving hundreds of lives was a terrible mistake! Now we can reopen, with the crisis under control, but there’s been economic impacts! Right wing voters recognise that. Normal people though, not so sure.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

They can't make it contingent on voting for them. It would have to come sooner if its stated purpose is to be believed. Announcement Budget May 14.

Andrei said...

The "bodies are not piling up"" in the way you imagine Judge Holden.

Presenting raw numbers out of context is misleading.

If the boffins who advise our Prime Minister had actually talked to the Italian, Chinee, Spanish etc halth authoitis instead of looking at computer screens dispaying models which could have been constructed by a bright year 12 comp sci student thn they would have known thet those at risk are the elderly with life threateeig co-mordities

And they wuld have also known that this particular bug is only a problem when it becomes entrnchd in health care facilities

2/3rds of our "deaths" come from one cluster that occurred in a dementia ward. That was so predictable. The diseae gets into a primary school and nobody notices it because it doesn't hurt children or healthy adults.

Some epidemiologists have been warning from the get go not to over react but the media ignore them.

Instead they are drawn like flies to shit to the doomsday scenarios and those that promalgate them who get their 15 minutes of fame, people like that pink haired microbiologist who in normal time spends her days playing with flourescent bacteria and has now found temporary celebrity status - a Kim Kardashian of science

What is now emerging is that the virus has been in the USA far longer than was previously believed and nobody had noticed it - and that is almost certainly true for NZ as well.

What is interesting is that there has been a big spike in deaths in the UK that coincide with the lockdown and a large number of these deaths are definetely not attributal to COVID-19 but when the dust has settled will almost be revealed to be the collateral damage of trying to stop its spread.

And believe me that collateral damage is going to be significant

oneblokesview said...

The bodies piling up BS. Comparisons to Italy were part of the scare tactic to justify the panic decision to go to Lockdown.

On the 15th of March the NZ PM had obviously been briefed on the The Taiwanese strategy. She even announce NZ would follow Taiwans strategy. Hell one week later she was spinning the Italy scare to justify house arrest.

Guess she went with the BS Science....ie dumbass Models..

So how many bodies are piling up in Taiwan? Remind me again?

6..yep 6..No lockdown..Just a bit of commonsense with the population 5 times the size of NZ
and REAL close to Wuhan.
Or Hong Kong?? Piles of Bodies? Na 4..yep 4....