Friday, April 10, 2020

I don't get it

Apparently our leader is a great communicator. She spells stuff out really clearly. For example 'Stay home' and 'Act like you have covid 19' and 'Be kind'. All unambiguous instructions.

But it isn't easy to follow instructions if you don't understand why. Here's a simple analogy. I'd never used a clothes drier before. I was told it was important to remove the fluff from the container where it accumulates. Because I didn't know why it was important I always let it build up. Then one day I was told you need to remove the fluff because it might catch fire. SAY WHAT? Now I remove it regularly.

So, the great communicator hasn't told me why I have to follow her clear instructions.

1/ To stop the hospitals being overrun?

They are currently at around 50 percent capacity apparently. Casual staff are redundant. How long can that state of affairs persist?

2/ To eradicate the virus?

So our borders will be permanently closed thereafter? That makes no sense whatsoever.

3/ To wait for a vaccine?

We're in lock down for a year or more? Anyway the flu kills more people and I've never had a flu jab. Along with thousands of others.

I'm not a massively smart person. My attention  span leaves a lot to be desired. But I don't get it.

And everyone else seems to because they just keep saying 'look at Italy, look at the US'. Yes? And we have nothing like that happening here right now. Touch wood the numbers are trending down even.

Yet every day that passes the government persists with more wealth destruction and more borrowing.

And more messages about 'staying the distance'. But still no explanation about why.
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9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bravo, Lindsay

8:58 AM
Iain H said...

Thanks Lindsay.
I too don't "get it' and guess that many are also wondering the same thing.
What is the end game here?
While appreciating there is a lot of uncertainty globally on where things will end up, while understanding that any vaccine is a couple of years away, "flattening the curve" seems to be only delaying the inevitable?
We could really do with some sort of explanation of the overall strategy and perhaps just as importantly, an understanding of the rationale behind the strategy.
Looking at various headlines it appears there are some tensions between the health professional and epidemiologists et al on one side and the need for economic activity to allow the country to survive and come out the "other end" whenever that will be and whatever it will look like.

The current lack of vision can only lead to popular confusion and ultimately, unrest.
Less soundbites and more intellectual discussion please.

9:50 AM
Mark Wahlberg said...

Lindsay,Hasn't it been said "Too much information can be a bad thing."
Is the government playing to the lowest common denominator?

Irrespective of a measles vaccine having been around for many years,generaly speaking Pacifica populations still rely on voodoo and faith healing to cure their ills. But it was modern medicine and authoritarian control which saved many people from death during the recent measles epidemic in Samoa. In regards to this new virus, maybe the government is doing something similar to what was done in Samoa,but on a bigger scale.

I was thinking about the big queues at supermarkets yesterday and trying to make sense of them. Was yesterday a benefit day and as such, perhaps many people had no money to shop earlier, so yesterdays debacle was a foregone conclusion? Just some thoughts.

10:29 AM
Don W said...

It seems that the gov't is carrying out an economic scorched earth policy.

11:41 AM
Anonymous said...

I think the reason for the lock-down and border controls is clear, and that is that the virus is highly infectious (it’s new so there is no existing immunity and no vaccine) and lethal (as we have seen overseas in China, Europe and the United States). Social distancing appears to be the only way currently to control its spread. If it is left uncontrolled, it spreads exponentially, and the medical system gets overwhelmed, again as we have seen overseas. In some respects the worst part of letting the virus get out of control is the devastation it causes among front-line medical staff, with high rates of infection and death. I think it is untenable to expect front-line medical staff to put themselves and their families at risk of death if a society is not taking steps to limit the spread of the virus through social distancing.
We are very fortunate, and unusual, in that we have an extremely low death rate at present relative to the number of infections compared to other countries. It’s not clear why that is the case, but part of the reason is likely to be the early self-isolation of older people aided by our low housing density and the fact that most older folk don’t live with their families. Perhaps it’s arguable that these factors would have enabled New Zealand to avoid a draconian lock-down, but I don’t think that risk could have been taken by a responsible government.
The major thing I fault the government on is that they could and should have taken much tougher measures to put all arrivals into mandatory quarantine from early March rather than relying on self-quarantine. Mandatory quarantine would have been very expensive and logistically difficult but it could have been done. If we had done so we may have been able to avoid locking down the entire economy, which is going to be devastatingly expensive.
As to whether we are going to have to keep quarantining new arrivals, I think the answer is yes until a vaccine or a reliable test on whether an arrival has immunity to the virus is available. If we don’t, then we risk repeat outbreaks of the virus.
It is by the way an obvious error to argue that we and other countries didn’t need to impose mandatory social distancing because the rate of spread of the virus and death rates are slowing when the reason they are slowing is because of mandatory social distancing.

4:25 PM
oneblokesview said...

Lets look at border control at the moment.
I agree with you. Why the 14 day quarantine, either voluntary or mandated.
Certainly the in force forever mantra is stupid in the extreme. IMHO

I refer to human innovation. Which seems to be absent in most analysis of what will happen until everyone in the world is vacinanted. ie the next 18+months

Already FDA have approved tests which give results in <15 minutes from simple machines already in use worldwide.

It is easy for me to imagine that in a few months fast cheap testing will be easily accessible.
So here is one scenario to change the tourism travel bogey.
I get myself tested
If negative
I buy my travel ticket online.
I go to the airport
Before checkin I go thru a security health screening.
Xray bags for bombs etc
Test me for Coronna.
I test negative.
Get a sticker in my passport?
Proceed to checkin.

Welcome aboard.
On arrival I again get tested. (I might have been in transit lounge somewhere)
If negative. I get a tracker..probably a bracelet type smartwatch.
Which for 14 days will monitor my blood pressure, temperature, whatever
and also track my whereabouts.
Welcome to NZ
At the end of 14 days I need to return the tracker to my nearest police station.

All that technology is available NOW.
Albeit expensive and a bit clunky..

and I have no idea what other innovation is in the works.







7:42 PM
Mark Wahlberg said...

With respect for oneblokesview, his idea of traveling, sounds as exhausting as a bad day standing in line at the supermarket.

8:03 PM
Lindsay Mitchell said...

Anon 2, "I think the reason for the lock-down and border controls is clear, and that is that the virus is highly infectious (it’s new so there is no existing immunity and no vaccine) and lethal (as we have seen overseas in China, Europe and the United States)." But not in a great many other jurisdictions (including NZ) for whatever reason/s thus far.

"Perhaps it’s arguable that these factors would have enabled New Zealand to avoid a draconian lock-down, but I don’t think that risk could have been taken by a responsible government."

Yet the same "responsible" government, without any 'modelling' of the economic consequences of a four week-long lockdown, took on that particular risk (which you describe as "devastatingly expensive").

So I appreciate (genuinely) your attempts to enlighten me but I'm not. Enlightened.

8:06 PM
Andrei said...

I'm glad I am not the only one who is mystified by this panic

Every winter old people catch respiratory viruses which turn into pneumonia and die

The deaths from viral pneumonia in the UK this year are not out of wack with other years but we are keeping a "grim" tally of those where the deceased has tested positive for COVID-19 and apparently this makes them worse or something

Why is it news that a 90 year old dementia patient has died of pneumonia?

And why do we have to crash the world's economy in the futile attempt to try and prevent this happening?

8:09 PM

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