Campaign Against Tasers.com - These are the guys who keep pushing Police Association boss Greg O'Connors blood pressure through the roof.
Well-known (?) artists speak out against tasers.
“To agree to the use of Tasers is to agree to the use of torture as police policy in NZ”. Michael Smither (Artist)
“The gradual dispersal of a torture device throughout our police force in the name of efficiency is degrading to all New Zealanders”. Nigel Brown (Artist)
The vulnerability of Maori to the taser has been pointed to by another artist.
“Maori will be the major victims of this weapon. Even so more for young Maori Men! Fact!” Mika (Artist)
Perhaps we should ask these guys to protect us from the crims with their paint brushes! Nobody asked me so....
"Let the police get on with their job and I'll get on with mine." Lindsay Mitchell (Artist)
Friday, August 11, 2006
Tariana puts her trotter down
It has never been clear to me what exactly the Maori Party and ACT have in common.
Tariana Turia would slot right in with the Greens...except.... here she is telling the Greens off for watering down their anti-free trade initiative, Buy Kiwi Made.
Let me see if I understand this. The Greens get $11 million for their campaign to promote NZ made products. Now companies who design their stuff here but get it made offshore want a slice of the pie too. They all want to get their piggy noses in the trough. But Tariana only wants NZ manufacturers to have their piggy noses in the trough.
Here's a thought. Take away the $11 million trough and there won't be any fighting and politicking and lobbying and oinking. Think of all the extra productivity that could be achieved if people just got on with it.
Tariana Turia would slot right in with the Greens...except.... here she is telling the Greens off for watering down their anti-free trade initiative, Buy Kiwi Made.
Let me see if I understand this. The Greens get $11 million for their campaign to promote NZ made products. Now companies who design their stuff here but get it made offshore want a slice of the pie too. They all want to get their piggy noses in the trough. But Tariana only wants NZ manufacturers to have their piggy noses in the trough.
Here's a thought. Take away the $11 million trough and there won't be any fighting and politicking and lobbying and oinking. Think of all the extra productivity that could be achieved if people just got on with it.
Constable
The Constable Exhibition at Te Papa is well worth a look. For a painter the opportunity to see his works up close is fascinating. Because he painted many scenes more than once comparisons between various approaches can be made. For instance he might scumble a passage (drag paint quickly over a surface leaving a broken stroke) in one painting and in the next painstakingly paint every little dot or dash. His style ranged from very tight to incredibly broad - well before the French impressionists. Often he would add an extra strip of panel or paper to correct his composition. He was a very patient man. And he must have dearly loved the countryside he recorded.
One of the other interesting things on offer is small facsimile reproductions of his tiny sketchbooks. They look like the real thing but you can pick them up and thumb through the pages. It's a great pleasure stepping back in time.
The saga of the signs
Yesterday I posted the Hutt City Council sign which basically sticks it to Eastbourne. This one has now appeared at Pt Howard. Cost considerably less than $200,000 but gets the message through.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Contradiction in terms?
This struck me as funny. Remember the No Rubba, No Hubba Hubba campaign? I had cause to visit the website where I found this;Got It Covered?
Play the Hubba Hubba challenge (requires Flash player)
Maori "Warrior" gene now "Moa" gene?
Confused? This report is calling the warrior gene the MOA gene. The correct abbreviation for monoamine oxidase is MAO.
That pesky Eastbourne crowd
Erected on Jervois Quay this large Hutt City-produced billboard has a lot of Eastbourne residents hopping mad.
Me too. Probably not for the same reasons though. It made me laugh. And I don't like laughing at money being spent where it shouldn't. It isn't local government's role to drive economic growth through the "arts" (which the Mayor is off to study in Santa Fe) or any other means, beyond keeping the infrastructure up to scratch and rates low.
Competing for economic growth through inflow of people is the job of the private sector. Why? Because they raise money through a voluntary process which in the main keeps them honest and efficient - unlike governments.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
What's the gain?
An man who claimed he sold cannabis tinnies to provide for his 10 children has been jailed.
The High Court at Whangarei was told that Jason Tiri Nahi, 33, was in a long-standing relationship with his partner with eight of their 10 children under 10.
Assuming the partner goes on welfare she'll get around $47 per child, $285 DPB and probably $200-250 in accommodation allowance with such a large family.
He goes away at $50,000 a year.
Suddenly the taxpayer is forking out $100,000 for a family that was supported by cannabis sales!
Yes, this is simplistic and the costings are conservative but what have we gained here?
10 kids with no Dad around. A load of customers looking for a new supplier.
And the loss of whatever $100,000 might have bought elsewhere.
The High Court at Whangarei was told that Jason Tiri Nahi, 33, was in a long-standing relationship with his partner with eight of their 10 children under 10.
Assuming the partner goes on welfare she'll get around $47 per child, $285 DPB and probably $200-250 in accommodation allowance with such a large family.
He goes away at $50,000 a year.
Suddenly the taxpayer is forking out $100,000 for a family that was supported by cannabis sales!
Yes, this is simplistic and the costings are conservative but what have we gained here?
10 kids with no Dad around. A load of customers looking for a new supplier.
And the loss of whatever $100,000 might have bought elsewhere.
No dole for Dad
Here's an interesting proposal from the Family Edge newsletter.
SHOULD CHILDREN HELP SUPPORT UNEMPLOYED PARENTS?
A German politician has stirred up controversy with a proposal to extend children's financial responsibility for their unemployed parents. Currently the German government reduces unemployment payments to parents who have children living at home and earning, where there is no clear separation of finances. The law even applies to unemployed siblings, uncles, aunts and non-relatives living in the same household.
Now, the secretary general of the Christian Democrats -- Chancellor Angela Merkel's party -- wants to extend the law to children and parents not sharing the same house. Ronald Pofalla said that, just as a working father supports his son under 25, so should a "30-something son support his unemployed father over 50 if he is financially able to do so."
Fellow CDU members are among critics of Pofalla's proposal, saying it will make young people think twice about whether it is worth trying to make a living in Germany. Others say 30-year-olds cannot begin their careers, start families, support their parents and still save for retirement. The president of the German Association for Social Affairs says the social welfare system, not the family, is responsible for supporting the unemployed. ~ Deutsche Welle, August 8
SHOULD CHILDREN HELP SUPPORT UNEMPLOYED PARENTS?
A German politician has stirred up controversy with a proposal to extend children's financial responsibility for their unemployed parents. Currently the German government reduces unemployment payments to parents who have children living at home and earning, where there is no clear separation of finances. The law even applies to unemployed siblings, uncles, aunts and non-relatives living in the same household.
Now, the secretary general of the Christian Democrats -- Chancellor Angela Merkel's party -- wants to extend the law to children and parents not sharing the same house. Ronald Pofalla said that, just as a working father supports his son under 25, so should a "30-something son support his unemployed father over 50 if he is financially able to do so."
Fellow CDU members are among critics of Pofalla's proposal, saying it will make young people think twice about whether it is worth trying to make a living in Germany. Others say 30-year-olds cannot begin their careers, start families, support their parents and still save for retirement. The president of the German Association for Social Affairs says the social welfare system, not the family, is responsible for supporting the unemployed. ~ Deutsche Welle, August 8
Media Release
WHY THE GAP HAS WIDENED
Wednesday, August 9, 2006
One of the 20 year comparisons from the Ministry of Social Development Social Report 2006 found a widening gap between the "rich" and the "poor".
Welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell says, "A major reason for the growing percentage of people experiencing hardship is the growth in benefit numbers."
"Twenty years ago 136,485 people were on one of the main benefits - unemployment, invalid, sickness or domestic purposes."
"At June this year the number had grown to 263,814 or 93 percent."
"To put that into context, over the same period the population increased by 25 percent."
"As Maori and Pacific people are over-represented amongst beneficiaries they are disproportionately experiencing hardship."
"There are also over 200,000 children relying on welfare."
"Until the incentives are changed and we stop encouraging people to have and add to their families on welfare, expect inequality to grow."
WHY THE GAP HAS WIDENED
Wednesday, August 9, 2006
One of the 20 year comparisons from the Ministry of Social Development Social Report 2006 found a widening gap between the "rich" and the "poor".
Welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell says, "A major reason for the growing percentage of people experiencing hardship is the growth in benefit numbers."
"Twenty years ago 136,485 people were on one of the main benefits - unemployment, invalid, sickness or domestic purposes."
"At June this year the number had grown to 263,814 or 93 percent."
"To put that into context, over the same period the population increased by 25 percent."
"As Maori and Pacific people are over-represented amongst beneficiaries they are disproportionately experiencing hardship."
"There are also over 200,000 children relying on welfare."
"Until the incentives are changed and we stop encouraging people to have and add to their families on welfare, expect inequality to grow."
Rodney on telly
Paul Holmes has been plugging his Prime Show at 7.30 tonight. He is interviewing Rodney Hide who he says talks "movingly and intimately" about his dancing experience and how it changed his life.
Fill in the gap
"Warrior gene"
Researchers are claiming Maori men have an over-representation of the gene that expresses monoamine oxidase. This predisposes to aggression, risk-taking and violence.
Fascinating. Not just the claim but the responses to it. Tariana isn't happy because she hates anything she perceives as negative criticism of Maori. Blinkered. Alan Duff suggests how the claim may be repudiated. Sensible. And John Tamihere says he will keep an open mind. Intelligent.
Read the link to Wikipedia before you dismiss this research.
Fascinating. Not just the claim but the responses to it. Tariana isn't happy because she hates anything she perceives as negative criticism of Maori. Blinkered. Alan Duff suggests how the claim may be repudiated. Sensible. And John Tamihere says he will keep an open mind. Intelligent.
Read the link to Wikipedia before you dismiss this research.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
Good on Sir Roger
There is a long way to go for a section of New Zealand society but what will the Roger Douglas critics have to say about this from the Ministry of Social Development;
“This year’s report for the first time also looks at how New Zealanders’ wellbeing has changed over the last 20 years. Of the 18 indicators we can track from the mid-1980s, the majority have improved. New Zealanders are better educated, they’re healthier and more of them are in paid work.
“Since the mid-1980s, life expectancy has increased, suicide rates have reduced, and cigarette smoking has decreased. However, obesity has doubled for men and almost doubled for women, reflecting changes in diet and physical activity.
“There have been substantial increases in participation in early childhood and tertiary education, and more school leavers have higher qualifications. The unemployment rate has fallen steadily since it peaked at over 10 percent in 1992, and employment has risen."
So the economic reforms didn't ruin the country afterall.
“This year’s report for the first time also looks at how New Zealanders’ wellbeing has changed over the last 20 years. Of the 18 indicators we can track from the mid-1980s, the majority have improved. New Zealanders are better educated, they’re healthier and more of them are in paid work.
“Since the mid-1980s, life expectancy has increased, suicide rates have reduced, and cigarette smoking has decreased. However, obesity has doubled for men and almost doubled for women, reflecting changes in diet and physical activity.
“There have been substantial increases in participation in early childhood and tertiary education, and more school leavers have higher qualifications. The unemployment rate has fallen steadily since it peaked at over 10 percent in 1992, and employment has risen."
So the economic reforms didn't ruin the country afterall.
Making choices
Freakonomics, by Steven D Levitt put forward a theory that legalised abortion (US 1973) led to a dramatic drop in crime in the 90s. The theory has been very controversial. Here's a lay criticism which makes for compelling reading;
(Posted at Steve Sailer's blog)
A reader with experience as an inner city social worker points out that Steven D. Levitt is the Elvis of Economics in more ways than one:
A couple of further observations on abortion and crime:
First, it's fascinating to see Conventional Wisdom taking shape right before my eyes. Usually the process is not nearly so obvious, and has to be pieced together after the fact.
Second, reading about Levitt's theory that abortion cuts crime by culling unwanted babies reminds me of that old Elvis Presley song called "In the Ghetto." It went:
As the snow flies
On a cold and gray Chicago morn
A poor little baby child is born
In the ghetto
And his mama cries
Cause if there’s one thing that she don’t need
It’s another hungry mouth to feed
In the ghetto
Remember that one? It's the one where The King showed how sensitive and politically aware and stuff he was.
What the fans of Elvis and Levitt fail to get is that poor women don’t necessarily see their situation the same way middle class folks do. They may actually love their little bastard babies!
Middle class types see poor unwed teenage mothers as Scum of the Earth and a Terrible Social Problem. But poor women don’t see themselves that way. Instead, they think of themselves as human beings facing the age-old challenge of getting along in the world -- and, if they're lucky, passing their genes on to the next generation.
Unbelievable, I know. But bear with me for just a minute and try to see it from their point of view.
If you're a young underclass woman, one of the first things you notice is that there are not many marriage-worthy men in your social milieu. A whole lot of them are unemployed or in prison or dead.
So even though you may want to get married, you figure your prospects are pretty dim. If you wait to marry before having children, you probably won't have children.
You might as well have them now because, well, why wait? You're not getting any younger. More to the point, your mother and other female relatives are not getting any younger. And since they're the ones you'll have to rely on for child care and support, it's important to have your kids before they develop Type II diabetes and kidney failure and all the other health problems that tend to afflict black underclass folks more than white privileged types.
Will having kids hold back your career? Well, if you have an IQ of 80 and are looking for a reason to drop out of high school anyway, then no.
You’ve probably already figured out that your prospects of a good job are dim, and getting dimmer by the day, especially with immigrants flooding in by the millions to take the few jobs you're qualified to do.
So for you, its not a choice of a ghastly life as a welfare mother or good life in the burbs. Fate and the immigration mavens have already decreed that you will get mostly crumbs from America's bounteous economic table. The only choice you have is between a crummy life with kids or a crummy life without kids.
Your lack of career prospects just makes having kids look that much more attractive. Children are about the only thing you can produce that people will view as being truly valuable.
Besides, if you can't count on a spouse for love and companionship, kids become doubly important because they'll be the only family you’ve got.
So becoming a single mother makes quite a bit of sense to you. You realize it’s a scary prospect and a hard life, but what are your options?
You may not exactly be looking to get pregnant, but when it happens -- well, is it really all bad? Lots of others have done it before you. In fact, in your neighborhood, girls who have babies out of wedlock are becoming the norm.
The only people who can't seem to grasp what is going on here are the Really Smart Guys. Even though it should be getting pretty obvious by now, especially since the black illegitimacy rate is close to 70 percent. Admittedly, most of these out of wedlock pregnancies may not have been "planned" or "intended" in any sense that a middle class observer could understand. But that doesn’t mean they're necessarily "unwanted."
Seen from this perspective, poor women who have abortions are likely to be the strivers and achievers. They're the ones who see some prospect of improving their lives, and realize it may hold them back if they have five kids by four fathers. They're the ones who are trying, in their own way, to make good.
Inability to grasp what is wrong with Levitt's argument seems to be a case of "I'll see it when I believe it." Maybe all the bright guys who can't believe what's going on in the underclass world should ditch Elvis and listen to Fantasia Barrino sing:
Nowadays it's like a badge of honor
To be a baby mama...
Cause we the backbone of the hood.
(Posted at Steve Sailer's blog)
A reader with experience as an inner city social worker points out that Steven D. Levitt is the Elvis of Economics in more ways than one:
A couple of further observations on abortion and crime:
First, it's fascinating to see Conventional Wisdom taking shape right before my eyes. Usually the process is not nearly so obvious, and has to be pieced together after the fact.
Second, reading about Levitt's theory that abortion cuts crime by culling unwanted babies reminds me of that old Elvis Presley song called "In the Ghetto." It went:
As the snow flies
On a cold and gray Chicago morn
A poor little baby child is born
In the ghetto
And his mama cries
Cause if there’s one thing that she don’t need
It’s another hungry mouth to feed
In the ghetto
Remember that one? It's the one where The King showed how sensitive and politically aware and stuff he was.
What the fans of Elvis and Levitt fail to get is that poor women don’t necessarily see their situation the same way middle class folks do. They may actually love their little bastard babies!
Middle class types see poor unwed teenage mothers as Scum of the Earth and a Terrible Social Problem. But poor women don’t see themselves that way. Instead, they think of themselves as human beings facing the age-old challenge of getting along in the world -- and, if they're lucky, passing their genes on to the next generation.
Unbelievable, I know. But bear with me for just a minute and try to see it from their point of view.
If you're a young underclass woman, one of the first things you notice is that there are not many marriage-worthy men in your social milieu. A whole lot of them are unemployed or in prison or dead.
So even though you may want to get married, you figure your prospects are pretty dim. If you wait to marry before having children, you probably won't have children.
You might as well have them now because, well, why wait? You're not getting any younger. More to the point, your mother and other female relatives are not getting any younger. And since they're the ones you'll have to rely on for child care and support, it's important to have your kids before they develop Type II diabetes and kidney failure and all the other health problems that tend to afflict black underclass folks more than white privileged types.
Will having kids hold back your career? Well, if you have an IQ of 80 and are looking for a reason to drop out of high school anyway, then no.
You’ve probably already figured out that your prospects of a good job are dim, and getting dimmer by the day, especially with immigrants flooding in by the millions to take the few jobs you're qualified to do.
So for you, its not a choice of a ghastly life as a welfare mother or good life in the burbs. Fate and the immigration mavens have already decreed that you will get mostly crumbs from America's bounteous economic table. The only choice you have is between a crummy life with kids or a crummy life without kids.
Your lack of career prospects just makes having kids look that much more attractive. Children are about the only thing you can produce that people will view as being truly valuable.
Besides, if you can't count on a spouse for love and companionship, kids become doubly important because they'll be the only family you’ve got.
So becoming a single mother makes quite a bit of sense to you. You realize it’s a scary prospect and a hard life, but what are your options?
You may not exactly be looking to get pregnant, but when it happens -- well, is it really all bad? Lots of others have done it before you. In fact, in your neighborhood, girls who have babies out of wedlock are becoming the norm.
The only people who can't seem to grasp what is going on here are the Really Smart Guys. Even though it should be getting pretty obvious by now, especially since the black illegitimacy rate is close to 70 percent. Admittedly, most of these out of wedlock pregnancies may not have been "planned" or "intended" in any sense that a middle class observer could understand. But that doesn’t mean they're necessarily "unwanted."
Seen from this perspective, poor women who have abortions are likely to be the strivers and achievers. They're the ones who see some prospect of improving their lives, and realize it may hold them back if they have five kids by four fathers. They're the ones who are trying, in their own way, to make good.
Inability to grasp what is wrong with Levitt's argument seems to be a case of "I'll see it when I believe it." Maybe all the bright guys who can't believe what's going on in the underclass world should ditch Elvis and listen to Fantasia Barrino sing:
Nowadays it's like a badge of honor
To be a baby mama...
Cause we the backbone of the hood.
15 is too young to drive
A visiting expert is horrified that NZ allows 15 year-olds to drive. Here is a slightly dated international comparison of traffic deaths;
The US has a driving age of 16 in most states and France,18, with an allowance for younger driving with certain conditions met. Most European countries have a limit of 18 and in the UK there is a campaign to lift the age to 21 (gleaned from a quick google search so don't take as gospel).
Personally I think our driving age is too young but am also reluctant to deny responsible 15 year-olds the opportunity.
The US has a driving age of 16 in most states and France,18, with an allowance for younger driving with certain conditions met. Most European countries have a limit of 18 and in the UK there is a campaign to lift the age to 21 (gleaned from a quick google search so don't take as gospel).
Personally I think our driving age is too young but am also reluctant to deny responsible 15 year-olds the opportunity.
Speed cameras with a difference
In the UK speed cameras which detect a speeding car and display its number plate on a roadside screen have been found to be more effective than fines. Name and shame. Trouble is....no revenue....
Stick to core business 2
From the DomPost's Diary, here's another culprit off to swan around our "sister city" - some place in Arizona nobody has ever heard of. Who dreams up these concepts? Don't tell me.
Monday, August 07, 2006
Stick to core business
While people are struggling to pay outrageous rate increases we get a councillor sticking her oar into what is not a local government issue. Who pays for the time she spends lobbying other councils and government? Replication of activity has a cost.A Porirua City councillor is calling for councils to take a stand against violence towards children, starting with her own council.
On Wednesday, Sue Dow will move a motion that the council support a bill currently before Parliament. Section 59 of the Crimes Act bans the smacking of children.
Ms Dow says Porirua has always been a trail-blazer among local authorities and it should lead the way on this issue too.
Prerequisites to change
Earlier posts have linked to articles which describe the success of the US welfare reforms. This one makes a couple of very important observations about the lessons learned and are entirely relevant to our suituation;
One lesson is that what people do for themselves often overshadows what government does for them. Since 1991, for example, the teen birthrate has dropped by a third. The mothers least capable of supporting children have had fewer of them. Welfare reform didn't single-handedly cause this. But it reinforced a broader shift in the social climate -- one emphasizing personal responsibility over victimhood.
Another lesson is the virtue of candor. Welfare's flaws were openly acknowledged. If we aren't more honest about other problems, they will simply get worse (as they already have).
The final lesson is the value of some bipartisanship. Although welfare reform was mainly a Republican project, President Clinton (who had pledged to "end welfare as we know it") provided general support, as did many Democrats who voted for the final bill. All agreed that the system was broken. Bipartisanship makes big changes in policies more acceptable to the public by signaling a broad consensus.
One lesson is that what people do for themselves often overshadows what government does for them. Since 1991, for example, the teen birthrate has dropped by a third. The mothers least capable of supporting children have had fewer of them. Welfare reform didn't single-handedly cause this. But it reinforced a broader shift in the social climate -- one emphasizing personal responsibility over victimhood.
Another lesson is the virtue of candor. Welfare's flaws were openly acknowledged. If we aren't more honest about other problems, they will simply get worse (as they already have).
The final lesson is the value of some bipartisanship. Although welfare reform was mainly a Republican project, President Clinton (who had pledged to "end welfare as we know it") provided general support, as did many Democrats who voted for the final bill. All agreed that the system was broken. Bipartisanship makes big changes in policies more acceptable to the public by signaling a broad consensus.
Idol picks
In search of some mindless frivolity, I confess Sunday nights will always see me glued to a different screen - the TV. I love talent shows, waiting for that buzz when you hear something extraordinary. Have to say I haven't heard it yet from this year's NZ Idol crop. But I was impressed enough to vote for two entrants last night. These are my first two picks to make it into the top ten;
Lenken from Iraq. I kid you not. The crew did some filming of him at home with his Dad playing some middle-eastern stringed instrument. Didn't know the song he sang but he's got a talent for performing.
Clinton. Not from Iraq. Did, "Don't let the sun go down on me" credibly. Makes a change from all the warbling we usually get.
Good luck guys.
Update; Clinton through but Shock, Horror.... the public didn't vote for Lenken. So the judges rode to the rescue making it quite clear he should have been in the top three and giving him the "second chance" wildcard.
Lenken from Iraq. I kid you not. The crew did some filming of him at home with his Dad playing some middle-eastern stringed instrument. Didn't know the song he sang but he's got a talent for performing.
Clinton. Not from Iraq. Did, "Don't let the sun go down on me" credibly. Makes a change from all the warbling we usually get.Good luck guys.
Update; Clinton through but Shock, Horror.... the public didn't vote for Lenken. So the judges rode to the rescue making it quite clear he should have been in the top three and giving him the "second chance" wildcard.
Saturday, August 05, 2006
Free advertising
Thanks to Back in 15 for giving my blog a plug.
I think I'll start a complementary list tracking the most inane and/or ludicrously ideological commentary; I'll call it voxideological.
My first award must go to Lindsay Mitchell. With a few weeks left in July can Lindsay add to her already impressive list of scandals and abuses? She's wacked welfarism, polaxed prisons, trashed teenage pregancy, dumped on the DPB, flayed father-less-families, stuck it to school exams but championed corporatising school lunches, monstered Maori gambling, beat back breast feeding zealots, attacked addicts for having families, and finally, slapped Sir Bob Geldof back into his box for daring to suggest government might increase their foreign aid.
Ena Sharples would be proud!
Recognising his generosity of spirit I nominate Back in 15 for the Ken Barlow Award.
I think I'll start a complementary list tracking the most inane and/or ludicrously ideological commentary; I'll call it voxideological.
My first award must go to Lindsay Mitchell. With a few weeks left in July can Lindsay add to her already impressive list of scandals and abuses? She's wacked welfarism, polaxed prisons, trashed teenage pregancy, dumped on the DPB, flayed father-less-families, stuck it to school exams but championed corporatising school lunches, monstered Maori gambling, beat back breast feeding zealots, attacked addicts for having families, and finally, slapped Sir Bob Geldof back into his box for daring to suggest government might increase their foreign aid.
Ena Sharples would be proud!
Recognising his generosity of spirit I nominate Back in 15 for the Ken Barlow Award.
Squirrel and Grasshopper
Somebody with a name I am unfamiliar with (if you are a reader thank you) sent me this story from Australia. I've tweaked it for NZ;
REST OF THE WORLD VERSION:
The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building and improving his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed.
The shivering grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.
THE END
THE NEW ZEALAND VERSION:
The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed.
A social worker finds the shivering grasshopper, calls a press conference and demands to know why the squirrel should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others less fortunate, like the grasshopper, are cold and starving.
TV Three shows up to provide live coverage of the shivering grasshopper; with cuts to a video of the squirrel in his comfortable warm home with a table laden with food.
John Campbell informs people that they should be ashamed that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so while others have plenty.
The Greens, The Grasshopper Poverty Action Group ,and The Grasshopper Council of New Zealand demonstrate in front of the squirrel's house. TV Three, interrupting a cultural festival special from Mangere with breaking news, broadcasts a multi-cultural choir singing "We Shall Overcome".
Sue Bradford rants in an interview with Paul Holmes that the squirrel has gotten rich off the backs of grasshoppers, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the squirrel to make him pay his "fair share".
In response to pressure from the media, the Government drafts the Economic Equity and Grasshopper Anti Discrimination Act, retrospective to the beginning of the summer. The squirrels's taxes are reassessed. He is taken to court and fined for failing to hire grasshoppers as builders for the work he was doing on his home and an additional fine for contempt when he told the court the grasshopper did not want to work.
The grasshopper is provided with a state house, a WINZ grant to furnish it and an account with a local taxi firm to ensure he can be socially mobile. The squirrel's food is seized and re distributed to the more needy members of society, in this case the grasshopper.
Without enough money to buy more food, to pay the fine and his newly imposed retroactive taxes, the squirrel has to downsize and start building a new home. The local authority takes over his old home and utilises it as a temporary home for asylum seeking cats who had hijacked a plane to get to New Zealand as they had to share their country of origin with mice. On arrival they tried to blow up the airport because of New Zealanders apparent love of dogs.
The cats had been arrested for the international offence of hijacking and attempted bombing but were immediately released because the police fed them pilchards instead of salmon whilst in custody. Initial moves to then return them to their own country were abandoned because it was feared they would face death by the mice. The cats devise and start a scam to obtain money from peoples credit cards.
A Sunday special shows the grasshopper finishing up the last of the squirrels's food, though Spring is still months away, while the state house he is in, crumbles around him because he hasn't bothered to maintain it. He is shown to be taking drugs. inadequate government funding is blamed for the grasshopper's drug "Illness".
The cats seek recompense in the Australian courts for their treatment since arrival in Australia.
The grasshopper gets arrested for stabbing an old dog during a burglary to get money for his drugs habit. He is imprisoned but released immediately because he has been in custody for a few weeks. He is placed in the care of the probation service to monitor and supervise him. Within a few weeks he has killed a guinea pig in a botched robbery.
A commission of enquiry, that will eventually cost $10,000,000 and state the obvious, is set up.
Additional money is put into funding a drug rehabilitation scheme for grasshoppers and legal aid for lawyers representing asylum seekers is increased. The asylum seeking cats are praised by the government for enriching New Zealands's multicultural diversity and dogs are criticised by the government for failing to befriend the cats.
The grasshopper dies of a drug overdose. The Maori Party blame it on the obvious failure of government to address the root causes of despair arising from social inequity and his traumatic experience of prison. They call for the resignation of David Benson-Pope.
The cats are paid a million dollars each because their rights were infringed when the government failed to inform them there were mice in New Zealand.
The squirrel, the dogs and the victims of the hijacking, the bombing, the burglaries and robberies have to pay an additional percentage on their credit cards to cover losses, their taxes are increased to pay for law and order and they are told that they will have to work beyond 65 because of a shortfall in government funds.
THE END
REST OF THE WORLD VERSION:
The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building and improving his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed.
The shivering grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.
THE END
THE NEW ZEALAND VERSION:
The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed.
A social worker finds the shivering grasshopper, calls a press conference and demands to know why the squirrel should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others less fortunate, like the grasshopper, are cold and starving.
TV Three shows up to provide live coverage of the shivering grasshopper; with cuts to a video of the squirrel in his comfortable warm home with a table laden with food.
John Campbell informs people that they should be ashamed that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so while others have plenty.
The Greens, The Grasshopper Poverty Action Group ,and The Grasshopper Council of New Zealand demonstrate in front of the squirrel's house. TV Three, interrupting a cultural festival special from Mangere with breaking news, broadcasts a multi-cultural choir singing "We Shall Overcome".
Sue Bradford rants in an interview with Paul Holmes that the squirrel has gotten rich off the backs of grasshoppers, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the squirrel to make him pay his "fair share".
In response to pressure from the media, the Government drafts the Economic Equity and Grasshopper Anti Discrimination Act, retrospective to the beginning of the summer. The squirrels's taxes are reassessed. He is taken to court and fined for failing to hire grasshoppers as builders for the work he was doing on his home and an additional fine for contempt when he told the court the grasshopper did not want to work.
The grasshopper is provided with a state house, a WINZ grant to furnish it and an account with a local taxi firm to ensure he can be socially mobile. The squirrel's food is seized and re distributed to the more needy members of society, in this case the grasshopper.
Without enough money to buy more food, to pay the fine and his newly imposed retroactive taxes, the squirrel has to downsize and start building a new home. The local authority takes over his old home and utilises it as a temporary home for asylum seeking cats who had hijacked a plane to get to New Zealand as they had to share their country of origin with mice. On arrival they tried to blow up the airport because of New Zealanders apparent love of dogs.
The cats had been arrested for the international offence of hijacking and attempted bombing but were immediately released because the police fed them pilchards instead of salmon whilst in custody. Initial moves to then return them to their own country were abandoned because it was feared they would face death by the mice. The cats devise and start a scam to obtain money from peoples credit cards.
A Sunday special shows the grasshopper finishing up the last of the squirrels's food, though Spring is still months away, while the state house he is in, crumbles around him because he hasn't bothered to maintain it. He is shown to be taking drugs. inadequate government funding is blamed for the grasshopper's drug "Illness".
The cats seek recompense in the Australian courts for their treatment since arrival in Australia.
The grasshopper gets arrested for stabbing an old dog during a burglary to get money for his drugs habit. He is imprisoned but released immediately because he has been in custody for a few weeks. He is placed in the care of the probation service to monitor and supervise him. Within a few weeks he has killed a guinea pig in a botched robbery.
A commission of enquiry, that will eventually cost $10,000,000 and state the obvious, is set up.
Additional money is put into funding a drug rehabilitation scheme for grasshoppers and legal aid for lawyers representing asylum seekers is increased. The asylum seeking cats are praised by the government for enriching New Zealands's multicultural diversity and dogs are criticised by the government for failing to befriend the cats.
The grasshopper dies of a drug overdose. The Maori Party blame it on the obvious failure of government to address the root causes of despair arising from social inequity and his traumatic experience of prison. They call for the resignation of David Benson-Pope.
The cats are paid a million dollars each because their rights were infringed when the government failed to inform them there were mice in New Zealand.
The squirrel, the dogs and the victims of the hijacking, the bombing, the burglaries and robberies have to pay an additional percentage on their credit cards to cover losses, their taxes are increased to pay for law and order and they are told that they will have to work beyond 65 because of a shortfall in government funds.
THE END
Bad girls
Oh Lordy, this can't be right. The accepted wisdom says men are responsible for the lion share of violence in the community and the home.
Violence offences by females have increased 60 per cent in Timaru in the past year.
And most of that increase has been in family violence with a high number involving mothers and daughters, Timaru police senior sergeant Mark Offen said yesterday.
Violence offences by females have increased 60 per cent in Timaru in the past year.
And most of that increase has been in family violence with a high number involving mothers and daughters, Timaru police senior sergeant Mark Offen said yesterday.
Friday, August 04, 2006
Did you know?
Having just read Heather Roy's description of what happened to the thirteen year-old girl who stole and crashed the ACT bus last year I was reminded that;83 percent of youth offending is dealt with out of court.
This approach is about non-stigmatisation of the offender and empowerment of the victim and offender.
Somehow I don't think Heather is feeling "empowered" right now.
(In fact, the girl was too young to be charged. The Youth Court deals with 15, 16 and 17 year-olds. Since 1974 the aim has been to divert those 14 and under, Children, away from court wherever possible. We no longer have a Children's Court.)
Quote
Not knowing much about the Middle East's history I don't have a position on the Israel/Lebanon crisis. But I did think this, from the Adam Smith blog, was rather droll;
General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for Israeli forgiveness toward Hizbollah.
"I believe that forgiving Hizbollah is God's function," he replied. "The Israelis' job is to arrange the meeting."
General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for Israeli forgiveness toward Hizbollah.
"I believe that forgiving Hizbollah is God's function," he replied. "The Israelis' job is to arrange the meeting."
In the Waikato
A good news story from the Waikato where unemployment is at its lowest level in 20 years; Work and Income regional director Neville Williams said the "huge drop" in unemployment numbers was due to a strong labour market with reasonable wage rates.
Just for balance let's have the other side of the Waikato story;
Sickness benefit up 40 percent over last five years
Invalid's benefit up 37 percent over last five years
DPB down 3 percent but with a bulge in the 18-19 year-olds indicating future growth in numbers, especially the stayers (oops - no pun intended).
Unemployment is down - great - but more people are are socially and physically unwell and long term dependent.
Just for balance let's have the other side of the Waikato story;
Sickness benefit up 40 percent over last five years
Invalid's benefit up 37 percent over last five years
DPB down 3 percent but with a bulge in the 18-19 year-olds indicating future growth in numbers, especially the stayers (oops - no pun intended).
Unemployment is down - great - but more people are are socially and physically unwell and long term dependent.
Did you know?
I should start a category of, "did you know?" posts.
Every day I come across a statistic that surprises me. Sometimes I forget it as my brain runs low on memory. But occasionally something will prompt it back, like this.
Ford was alleged to have shot a man in the back of his knee, shattering the kneecap, before telling two of his sons and a nephew to finish the injured man off. They refused and the man survived.
A jury acquitted Ford of the charges relating to that incident but a retrial was ordered on some other firearm-related incidents.
He was on bail awaiting that trial when he died.
The interesting fact?
Only 48 percent of prosecuted violent charges result in a conviction. Violent offences are the least likely to result in conviction.
Every day I come across a statistic that surprises me. Sometimes I forget it as my brain runs low on memory. But occasionally something will prompt it back, like this.
Ford was alleged to have shot a man in the back of his knee, shattering the kneecap, before telling two of his sons and a nephew to finish the injured man off. They refused and the man survived.
A jury acquitted Ford of the charges relating to that incident but a retrial was ordered on some other firearm-related incidents.
He was on bail awaiting that trial when he died.
The interesting fact?
Only 48 percent of prosecuted violent charges result in a conviction. Violent offences are the least likely to result in conviction.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
From Rodney's blog
Hide pushes for limits on council rate risesWednesday, August 02, 2006
I know some of the pointy-headed political bloggers of a conservative persuasion were dead against moi dancing—but hey if it helps sell the message of smaller and more accountable government—I’m in. Here’s the front page of the Wairarapa Times Age.
Besides I did note to myself that those opposed to my dancing weren’t people who had taken risks in their lives ... or done very much at all ... or the types to have much fun. That’s why they’re conservatives.
Hah! I love it. People will have to get used to it. ACT does not own Rodney Hide. If anything Rodney owns ACT.
"Scheme to spot crims at birth"
There seems to be a refusal to join the dots going on but at least people are talking about where criminals come from and admitting it isn't difficult to predict who will offend. I think that's as much as I will say about this item.
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Perpetrators of child homicide
This is the source of a statistic given in the following post. There were 91 children killed between 1991 and 2000.
(The percentages don't add up because in some cases there was more than one perpetrator.)
Another biased report
This report has just been released by Unicef NZ in partnerhip with The Body Shop.
Here are some quotes;
- The devastating effects of domestic violence on women are well documented.
- Domestic violence is a problem of enormous proportions. Although men are sometimes victims, the vast majority are women.
- One study in Canada found that women who lived with heavy drinkers were five times more likely to be assaulted by their partners than those who lived with non-drinkers.
I didn't read the following;
- One area where women offend more than men is child abuse. Child abusers are slightly more likely to be female than male (Crime in New Zealand, 2000)
- About 27 percent of women and 34 percent of men among the Dunedin study reported they had been physically abused by their partner (Findings about partner violence from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study.)
- Of 91 NZ child homicides between 1991 to 2000 31 percent were committed by the father, and 24 percent by the mother (Children at increased risk of death from maltreatment and strategies for prevention, CYF.)
Interviewed on National Radio about this report, the advocacy manager from Unicef apparently said that one in three men will hit their partner. Did anyone else hear this?
Drug research UK
From the Adam Smith blog an entry about new drug research. Last year I got Greg Newbold to come and speak at an electorate dinner. As I remember he drew a conclusion which would be backed up by this research, that we should treat various drugs differently (or more so than we currently do).
Drugs are banned because they are dangerous, we are told. And when the media report cases of teenagers dying from the misuse of ecstasy or solvents, that message seems to be confirmed. But in fact, according to a study by Professor Colin Blakemore (head of the UK's Medical Research Council) and others, these drugs are in fact a good deal less dangerous than alcohol or tobacco, which are responsible for far more cases of illness and death each year — and in the case of alcohol, accident and violence too.
Drugs are banned because they are dangerous, we are told. And when the media report cases of teenagers dying from the misuse of ecstasy or solvents, that message seems to be confirmed. But in fact, according to a study by Professor Colin Blakemore (head of the UK's Medical Research Council) and others, these drugs are in fact a good deal less dangerous than alcohol or tobacco, which are responsible for far more cases of illness and death each year — and in the case of alcohol, accident and violence too.
"Lock-down" after Tokoroa murder
Is this an over-reaction?
Cambridge Primary School has decided to cut the after-hours parent teacher interviews due to safety concerns. The teachers didn't want to work after dark. So now they will close the school on Friday and conduct them during the day.
That will be very inconvenient for many parents - those who can only attend an interview in the evening and those who will have to make arrangements for the care of their children that day.
Cambridge Primary School board of trustees chairman Richard Younger said staff were worried about their safety with limited daylight hours during the winter, and closing the school for the interviews was an easy decision to make.
"It's a heath and safety issue now," he said.
"It's sad we now have to do this sort of thing, but ultimately all the good work teachers did after hours is finished and in some cases it's turning into a complete lock-down."
Cambridge Primary School has decided to cut the after-hours parent teacher interviews due to safety concerns. The teachers didn't want to work after dark. So now they will close the school on Friday and conduct them during the day.
That will be very inconvenient for many parents - those who can only attend an interview in the evening and those who will have to make arrangements for the care of their children that day.
Cambridge Primary School board of trustees chairman Richard Younger said staff were worried about their safety with limited daylight hours during the winter, and closing the school for the interviews was an easy decision to make.
"It's a heath and safety issue now," he said.
"It's sad we now have to do this sort of thing, but ultimately all the good work teachers did after hours is finished and in some cases it's turning into a complete lock-down."
Eighth time lucky
Here's another one doing more than her bit for our flagging fertility rate. Pregnant with her eighth, but without custody of the other seven, and on her way to jail. Hurry up with Sue Bradford's "breastfeeding behind bars" bill and with any luck she might manage to bond with this one.
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Another callous murder
Can we stand to read much more of this stuff?
This little boy was three years-old for christ's sake. Beaten nearly everyday by a woman not fit to call herself a mother. Poor little blighter. In some ways this is worse than the Kahui case because the beatings went on over a longer period and we know that two people were involved. May they rot.
This little boy was three years-old for christ's sake. Beaten nearly everyday by a woman not fit to call herself a mother. Poor little blighter. In some ways this is worse than the Kahui case because the beatings went on over a longer period and we know that two people were involved. May they rot.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Funding Herceptin
Putting aside the debate over whether the breast cancer drug Herceptin is effective in early stage illness, the issue of funding at $70-100,000 per course is a huge hurdle. Where will the money that may save the lives of these women come from?
Perhaps the 37,000 single parents (mostly females), with school-age children only, could get off the DPB and into a job.
According to Ministry of Social Development figures, the average weekly payment is $415.
If half of these people got off the benefit for just a year the savings would be almost $400 million or at least 4000 Herceptin courses.
As it is anticipated only 300-400 of the tumour type receptive to Herceptin will be found each year, the target could be revised to a mere 1,850 DPB recipients.
Just an idea for the sisterhood to mull over.
Perhaps the 37,000 single parents (mostly females), with school-age children only, could get off the DPB and into a job.
According to Ministry of Social Development figures, the average weekly payment is $415.
If half of these people got off the benefit for just a year the savings would be almost $400 million or at least 4000 Herceptin courses.
As it is anticipated only 300-400 of the tumour type receptive to Herceptin will be found each year, the target could be revised to a mere 1,850 DPB recipients.
Just an idea for the sisterhood to mull over.
Build them and they will .....buy?
"The Government should also be encouraging home ownership by increasing the stock of public housing. A larger pool of state houses will mean that owning private rentals becomes a less attractive option for investors."
There seems to be a problem with this statement from Sue Bradford today. The state owning more homes will lead to the public owning more homes?
Information overload
NB not a promotion of dope - but how to become one, perhaps. I identified with this.
(left click on image to enlarge)
(left click on image to enlarge)
Sunday, July 30, 2006
"Blog outrages National"
The blog in question is Tumeke
This will be an interesting test of the blogosphere;
The National Party is outraged an inmate in Auckland's Mount Eden prison has been documenting his time in jail through an e-mail blog. Tim Selwyn was sentenced to time in jail earlier this month for sedition and a range of other offences after his axe attack on the Prime Minister's electoral office.
National Party Law and Order spokesman Simon Power says it is outrageous a prisoner can write what is basically a travelogue. Mr Power says he hopes prison security is not being compromised, and adds that The Department of Corrections has a responsibility to ensure sentences are seen to be done and some liberties denied.
Update; Corrections chief executive says Selwyn is doing nothing wrong. I would have thought writing could be considered rehabilitative. But Simon Power sees it as a further "liberty" of which the prisoner should be "deprived".
The PM says to Paul Holmes on NewstalkZB, "It raises some questions, the blogging. In essence he is writing a letter...do we need to do something to adjust to the internet age? It raises a whole new set of issues."
This will be an interesting test of the blogosphere;
The National Party is outraged an inmate in Auckland's Mount Eden prison has been documenting his time in jail through an e-mail blog. Tim Selwyn was sentenced to time in jail earlier this month for sedition and a range of other offences after his axe attack on the Prime Minister's electoral office.
National Party Law and Order spokesman Simon Power says it is outrageous a prisoner can write what is basically a travelogue. Mr Power says he hopes prison security is not being compromised, and adds that The Department of Corrections has a responsibility to ensure sentences are seen to be done and some liberties denied.
Update; Corrections chief executive says Selwyn is doing nothing wrong. I would have thought writing could be considered rehabilitative. But Simon Power sees it as a further "liberty" of which the prisoner should be "deprived".
The PM says to Paul Holmes on NewstalkZB, "It raises some questions, the blogging. In essence he is writing a letter...do we need to do something to adjust to the internet age? It raises a whole new set of issues."
Perpetuating crime
The Sunday Star Times has featured leaked June 2006 crime stats. Many regions have recorded significant increases especially in violent crime and the police are blaming the lower drinking age and increased drug-taking.
The editorial raises one point not often mentioned. There was a baby blip in 1990-91 and we may be seeing the results of this as these youngsters reach the 15 - 24 age group, when most offending occurs. Some also predict a rise in teen DPB numbers as these kids start reproducing. In the five years to 2006 the percentage of 18 - 19 year-olds on the DPB climbed from 2.5 to 2.9 percent (there are more recipients younger than this but I don't have similar data for those). Given many youth offenders come from welfare-dependent, fatherless homes we are just setting up more failure.
This is graphically illustrated by the story of the young man who killed Lois Dear;
"He is well hated. A lot of people want to kill him."
The woman said in recent years her cousin had changed.
"The first I heard of his problems was when he got a girlfriend."
That Tokoroa girlfriend was the mother of one of his two young sons born within a month of each other, the cousin said.
Obviously not so disliked that two girls didn't want to have his kids. He has already left his legacy. His progeny will likely go on to be high risk adolescents in their turn. He has made his contribution to the cycle of deprivation.
So I'll ask the question again. If the mothers weren't guaranteed an income from the state would they have been so keen?
The editorial raises one point not often mentioned. There was a baby blip in 1990-91 and we may be seeing the results of this as these youngsters reach the 15 - 24 age group, when most offending occurs. Some also predict a rise in teen DPB numbers as these kids start reproducing. In the five years to 2006 the percentage of 18 - 19 year-olds on the DPB climbed from 2.5 to 2.9 percent (there are more recipients younger than this but I don't have similar data for those). Given many youth offenders come from welfare-dependent, fatherless homes we are just setting up more failure.
This is graphically illustrated by the story of the young man who killed Lois Dear;
"He is well hated. A lot of people want to kill him."
The woman said in recent years her cousin had changed.
"The first I heard of his problems was when he got a girlfriend."
That Tokoroa girlfriend was the mother of one of his two young sons born within a month of each other, the cousin said.
Obviously not so disliked that two girls didn't want to have his kids. He has already left his legacy. His progeny will likely go on to be high risk adolescents in their turn. He has made his contribution to the cycle of deprivation.
So I'll ask the question again. If the mothers weren't guaranteed an income from the state would they have been so keen?
Saturday, July 29, 2006
Better safe? Better sane.
Here's a really over-the-top story about airport security;Bugs Bunny sparks security alert
A girl of six triggered a security scare at an airport – with a pink Bugs Bunny water pistol rammed full of sweets.
Kelly Vinnicombe was bought the £2.50 toy in the departure lounge by her mother Sarah, and packed it in her bag.
But, as they went through the X-ray security machine, guards hauled them to one side.
It’s bright pink with Bugs Bunny on it
Ms Vinnicombe, 34, was told the toy was technically a 'weapon' and would have to be registered at the firearms desk.
She spent an hour explaining where the gun came from – just metres away in an airport shop – before the toy was tagged and packed in a separate part of the plane.
Ms Vinnicombe, of Plymouth, Devon, said: 'It's bright pink with Bugs Bunny on it.'
The pair were reunited with their cargo at Heathrow Airport after an 11-hour flight.
A Cape Town airport spokeswoman insisted: 'It's is better to be safe than sorry.'
What to believe?
There's one heck of a lot of stuff flying around at the moment in relation to family violence.
The newly created Taskforce for Action Against Violence in Families has issued its first report which said, family violence was happening in families of all cultures, classes, backgrounds and socioeconomic circumstances, and the predominant pattern was male violence directed at a female partner.
Yet that claim has been rebutted many times. Only recently Professor David Fergusson, who has published many papers from his long-term study of a group of Christchurch children, said the violence was directed in both directions.
And criminologist Greg Newbold wrote in his book, Crime in New Zealand (2000);
"Women assault their husbands at least as often as the reverse, and many studies suggest that women assault spouses more often than men. However, women are injured or killed more often by their spouses than men are."
I suppose people will believe what they want to believe. But given the government are going to spend $14 million on a national awareness campaign I sincerely hope it isn't going to be a load of propaganda.
Finally, Peter Hughes, defending the campaign says, "New Zealand has a high tolerance of violence. It has to change." He likened domestic violence to drink-driving, smoking and not wearing seatbelts which were normal 20 years ago but unacceptable today.
Well here's the bad news. Truckloads of people are still smoking and still drinking and driving.
The newly created Taskforce for Action Against Violence in Families has issued its first report which said, family violence was happening in families of all cultures, classes, backgrounds and socioeconomic circumstances, and the predominant pattern was male violence directed at a female partner.
Yet that claim has been rebutted many times. Only recently Professor David Fergusson, who has published many papers from his long-term study of a group of Christchurch children, said the violence was directed in both directions.
And criminologist Greg Newbold wrote in his book, Crime in New Zealand (2000);
"Women assault their husbands at least as often as the reverse, and many studies suggest that women assault spouses more often than men. However, women are injured or killed more often by their spouses than men are."
I suppose people will believe what they want to believe. But given the government are going to spend $14 million on a national awareness campaign I sincerely hope it isn't going to be a load of propaganda.
Finally, Peter Hughes, defending the campaign says, "New Zealand has a high tolerance of violence. It has to change." He likened domestic violence to drink-driving, smoking and not wearing seatbelts which were normal 20 years ago but unacceptable today.
Well here's the bad news. Truckloads of people are still smoking and still drinking and driving.
Friday, July 28, 2006
Run that past me again...
Of course if you want to get covered you have to say something radical. It doesn't have to be true......
From the Herald, Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia said the report showed that child deaths peaked in the late 1980s and 1990s when unemployment also peaked and benefits were cut.
And from the DomPost, Maori Party leader Tariana Turia said New Zealand's situation in terms of poverty and child abuse was fast approaching a "national emergency".
This latest CYF report made it clear child deaths were inextricably linked with socio-economic disadvantage, she said. "It's time for the Government to wake up to the reality of economic violence."
From the Herald, Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia said the report showed that child deaths peaked in the late 1980s and 1990s when unemployment also peaked and benefits were cut.
And from the DomPost, Maori Party leader Tariana Turia said New Zealand's situation in terms of poverty and child abuse was fast approaching a "national emergency".
This latest CYF report made it clear child deaths were inextricably linked with socio-economic disadvantage, she said. "It's time for the Government to wake up to the reality of economic violence."
Thursday, July 27, 2006
"Economic violence" to blame says Turia
CYF has released a report into Child Death from Maltreatment. Unfortunately the statistics only go to 2003. This is Tariana Turia's press release on the matter;
“It’s time for the Government to wake up to the reality of economic violence” said Mrs Turia.
Economic violence is when people are impoverished by being deprived of access to power and resources, putting human dignity at danger.
“This latest report makes it quite clear - the peak in child deaths was from late 1980s and 1990s - the so-called experimental years in New Zealand’s economy - when unemployment was highest and when benefits were cut” says Mrs Turia.
Here are two charts from the report. Whatever is "clear" to Ms Turia is not to me.
(The report repeatedly cautions using these figures to discern trends because such small changes in the absolute number substantially alters the rate of child death.)
“It’s time for the Government to wake up to the reality of economic violence” said Mrs Turia.
Economic violence is when people are impoverished by being deprived of access to power and resources, putting human dignity at danger.
“This latest report makes it quite clear - the peak in child deaths was from late 1980s and 1990s - the so-called experimental years in New Zealand’s economy - when unemployment was highest and when benefits were cut” says Mrs Turia.
Here are two charts from the report. Whatever is "clear" to Ms Turia is not to me.
(The report repeatedly cautions using these figures to discern trends because such small changes in the absolute number substantially alters the rate of child death.)
What Aucklanders think about Wellingtonians
An excerpt from Jane Clifton's laugh-out-loud book, Political Animals;
Judge finds for biological mother
This is an interesting ruling from the UK:
Two young sisters taken away from their biological mother and handed over to her former lesbian partner must be given back, the Law Lords ruled today.
I just sigh when I read stuff like this. Why can't parents get their act together and stop pushing and pulling kids between pillar and post.
Two young sisters taken away from their biological mother and handed over to her former lesbian partner must be given back, the Law Lords ruled today.
I just sigh when I read stuff like this. Why can't parents get their act together and stop pushing and pulling kids between pillar and post.
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
A very weak argument
Mr Edridge again. Speaking at the Every Child Counts conference today, urging repeal of section 59;
It was a matter of consistency, Mr Edridge said.
"We have a domestic violence act that has a zero tolerance towards violence and yet we have a crimes act that says you can use force against your children," he said.
Is violence between adults increasing or abating? Despite laws criminalising adults using force against adults, violence between them continues to escalate.
It was a matter of consistency, Mr Edridge said.
"We have a domestic violence act that has a zero tolerance towards violence and yet we have a crimes act that says you can use force against your children," he said.
Is violence between adults increasing or abating? Despite laws criminalising adults using force against adults, violence between them continues to escalate.
Going around in circles
I lost faith in government's ability to solve social problems long ago. But here is a sobering reminder about how administration after administration come up with catch phrases that are supposed to be cure-alls but cure nothing.
"In the 1995 Budget statements....a new catchphrase came into currency - 'Strengthening Families' - with special programmes to counter child abuse and young offending. This builds on the emphasis on families which had been a persistent theme since 1991."
Judith A Davey.
"In the 1995 Budget statements....a new catchphrase came into currency - 'Strengthening Families' - with special programmes to counter child abuse and young offending. This builds on the emphasis on families which had been a persistent theme since 1991."
Judith A Davey.
Kiro's grand plan
First consider this. Children's Commissioner, Cindy Kiro has a grand plan;
Every child would be interviewed or assessed before age two and again at ages five, 13, and 17. The interviews would assess children's strengths and possible areas for intervention, including truancy.
"The key thing is that in that one-on-one time you're getting a picture of what's going on for that child and what the things that really drive and interest them are," Dr Kiro said.
State intervention was possible where there were "major care and protection issues".
Now consider this (it was published in yesterday's DomPost under "Risk repeating history"):
Dear Editor
In the late eighties New Zealand apparently experienced an epidemic of child sexual abuse. During 1988 an advertising campaign culminating in a telethon centred on the claim that one in four girls would be victims before they turned 18. Lynley Hood, in "A City Possessed", has demonstrated how figures had been gradually over-inflated and the whole issue hyped-up.
I fear we are in danger of repeating history with current claims of a child abuse epidemic. Murray Edridge, Barnados CE, wrote (July 22) that last year, "64,000 children were likely to have been abused or neglected". This is a misinterpretation of the CYF notification statistics.
Just over 16,000 children came to the attention of CYF in the past year. Only a quarter of the number above.
In truth there is no way of knowing how many children are abused or neglected. But if Mr Edridge wants to have the "informed" debate he calls for, this isn't the way.
As happened in the 70s and 80s, there is a risk suspicion is cast too widely and an atmosphere of fear and distrust develops. Especially amongst people with greater state-invested power than perfectly good parents.
Lindsay Mitchell
Today there is an Every Child Counts conference in Wellington where Murray Edridge and Cindy Kiro will speak. Another leftist get-together to talk about child poverty and abuse. I am not a conspiracy theorist but the way this business is developing is quite clear to me.
Every child would be interviewed or assessed before age two and again at ages five, 13, and 17. The interviews would assess children's strengths and possible areas for intervention, including truancy.
"The key thing is that in that one-on-one time you're getting a picture of what's going on for that child and what the things that really drive and interest them are," Dr Kiro said.
State intervention was possible where there were "major care and protection issues".
Now consider this (it was published in yesterday's DomPost under "Risk repeating history"):
Dear Editor
In the late eighties New Zealand apparently experienced an epidemic of child sexual abuse. During 1988 an advertising campaign culminating in a telethon centred on the claim that one in four girls would be victims before they turned 18. Lynley Hood, in "A City Possessed", has demonstrated how figures had been gradually over-inflated and the whole issue hyped-up.
I fear we are in danger of repeating history with current claims of a child abuse epidemic. Murray Edridge, Barnados CE, wrote (July 22) that last year, "64,000 children were likely to have been abused or neglected". This is a misinterpretation of the CYF notification statistics.
Just over 16,000 children came to the attention of CYF in the past year. Only a quarter of the number above.
In truth there is no way of knowing how many children are abused or neglected. But if Mr Edridge wants to have the "informed" debate he calls for, this isn't the way.
As happened in the 70s and 80s, there is a risk suspicion is cast too widely and an atmosphere of fear and distrust develops. Especially amongst people with greater state-invested power than perfectly good parents.
Lindsay Mitchell
Today there is an Every Child Counts conference in Wellington where Murray Edridge and Cindy Kiro will speak. Another leftist get-together to talk about child poverty and abuse. I am not a conspiracy theorist but the way this business is developing is quite clear to me.
Mixed bag at hui
What was I saying yesteday about the state replacing the father...
here's someone else saying the same thing.
Manurewa training provider Frank Solomon also criticised the benefit system. It encouraged young couples to split so that one could get the domestic purposes benefit.
"We are told by our students that they get more money if they live separately, so we then face the fact that our tane [men] are not with our tamariki [children] to provide that leadership and mentoring and modelling as a father," he said.
Unfortunately other people reported at the hui to tackle child abuse held yesterday in Mangere, were calling for more of the same - more government money and yet another helpline.
Some communities have become mini-matriarchies. Something I read from the Cato Institute. Women control much of the power through the welfare payments. Women dominate the social worker classes and most of the schools.
So expect matriarchal solutions to problems. What made me remember that?
here's someone else saying the same thing.
Manurewa training provider Frank Solomon also criticised the benefit system. It encouraged young couples to split so that one could get the domestic purposes benefit.
"We are told by our students that they get more money if they live separately, so we then face the fact that our tane [men] are not with our tamariki [children] to provide that leadership and mentoring and modelling as a father," he said.
Unfortunately other people reported at the hui to tackle child abuse held yesterday in Mangere, were calling for more of the same - more government money and yet another helpline.
Some communities have become mini-matriarchies. Something I read from the Cato Institute. Women control much of the power through the welfare payments. Women dominate the social worker classes and most of the schools.
So expect matriarchal solutions to problems. What made me remember that?
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Dragging on
There are more accusations flying around in the Kahui case than a game of Cluedo.
The aunties say a male from the "tight twelve" did it. Then a male, purporting to be from the tight twelve (which there is no such thing as, he insists) says it's the parents, "Who else could it be?" (I heard his call to the Tamihere/Jackson show). Now the Grandma says it's a female, she knows it in her heart. I wonder who is next?
What a sick joke this is turning into.
The aunties say a male from the "tight twelve" did it. Then a male, purporting to be from the tight twelve (which there is no such thing as, he insists) says it's the parents, "Who else could it be?" (I heard his call to the Tamihere/Jackson show). Now the Grandma says it's a female, she knows it in her heart. I wonder who is next?
What a sick joke this is turning into.
UK Child Support Agency
The shambolic UK Child Support Agency is about to go under. In terms of failure to collect debt our's is pretty much in the same boat.
What amazes me is that anybody believes a child support system, operating alongside the benefit system, can ever run smoothly and successfully or more "simply". On one hand the government usurps the father by replacing him and on the other hand they want his money to do the job. What a mess.
What amazes me is that anybody believes a child support system, operating alongside the benefit system, can ever run smoothly and successfully or more "simply". On one hand the government usurps the father by replacing him and on the other hand they want his money to do the job. What a mess.
Monday, July 24, 2006
Towards the centre
Judging by Vernon Small's coverage of National's conference, policy appears to be moderating and pulling to the centre but Don Brash still has more radical ideas. Small writes, "Yet even as the party prepares a softer policy suite, Dr Brash is musing about radical tax reform. Lately he has been examining negaitve (or reverse) taxation, which would deliver a payment up to $9,000 at zero income."
Perhaps he has been reading Charles Marray's latest book, In Our Hands.
As for the rest, Simon Power talking about "reducing crime, not locking up younger and younger people for longer", Judith Collins "strong on intervention", Nick Smith "showing how thinking has moved on from the privatisation and corporatisation agendas" - sounds like National of old. Managers.
And when you think about it, if all we really want is the problems managed instead of sorted, Labour aren't that bad at it.
Perhaps he has been reading Charles Marray's latest book, In Our Hands.
As for the rest, Simon Power talking about "reducing crime, not locking up younger and younger people for longer", Judith Collins "strong on intervention", Nick Smith "showing how thinking has moved on from the privatisation and corporatisation agendas" - sounds like National of old. Managers.
And when you think about it, if all we really want is the problems managed instead of sorted, Labour aren't that bad at it.
Admitting mistakes
This post isn't an endorsement of government-funded relationship programmes. What interests (and frustrates) me is the contrast between NZ and US willingness to acknowledge the effect of welfare on the family structure;
From 2005 through 2010, the Baltimore Building Strong Families (BSF) program will be gathering information from 650 couples to see whether it provides the right combination of words, images, services and counseling sessions to help the couples commit to each other and their children for the long haul.
The trick will be doing this in neighborhoods where trust is low, talk is cheap, sex is plentiful and weddings are rare.
For more than 60 years, the nation offered public assistance to single mothers -- with an emphasis on the word "single." Generations of welfare mothers warned each other about letting a man stay too long -- "a man in the house" meant forfeiture of a mother's public housing, cash benefits, Medicaid and other government benefits.
Not surprisingly, marriage all but disappeared in poor communities. Welfare mothers had boyfriends, not husbands; their children had visiting "daddies" who showed up with Pampers, not fathers who came home from work every day, played with them and protected them.
From 2005 through 2010, the Baltimore Building Strong Families (BSF) program will be gathering information from 650 couples to see whether it provides the right combination of words, images, services and counseling sessions to help the couples commit to each other and their children for the long haul.
The trick will be doing this in neighborhoods where trust is low, talk is cheap, sex is plentiful and weddings are rare.
For more than 60 years, the nation offered public assistance to single mothers -- with an emphasis on the word "single." Generations of welfare mothers warned each other about letting a man stay too long -- "a man in the house" meant forfeiture of a mother's public housing, cash benefits, Medicaid and other government benefits.
Not surprisingly, marriage all but disappeared in poor communities. Welfare mothers had boyfriends, not husbands; their children had visiting "daddies" who showed up with Pampers, not fathers who came home from work every day, played with them and protected them.
PATHS (Providing Access to Health Solutions)
When the government launched this programme I was against it because it meant beneficiaries would be queue-jumped over other people waiting for operations and I also questioned why ACC were bumping people onto sickness or invalid benefits instead of dealing with their health problems. It would be better to deal with people only recently incapacitated than spend the money on those who have been long-term beneficiaries. However, the scheme went ahead.
Now, according to National, the scheme has cost $18,000 for each beneficiary it has got into a job. Judith Collins is attacking that saying a scheme that cost $2.7 million and has only helped 0.1% of sickness and invalid beneficiaries into work is an "extremely expensive experiment".
But only a very small number were put through it.
IF the 151 people stay in work $18,000 apiece is worth it. It's probably less than one year's benefit payment. That's how Labour will sell it and how the public will see it.
And it's interesting to note that when the programme was launched in 2004, Katherine Rich, then social services spokeswoman, called upon the government to introduce the measures nationwide as soon as possible.
She said,"It's something that would work immediately. It is something that could get potentially productive people back into the workforce and has to be a priority for the government."
As attacks go this wasn't a very strong one from Judith Collins.
Now, according to National, the scheme has cost $18,000 for each beneficiary it has got into a job. Judith Collins is attacking that saying a scheme that cost $2.7 million and has only helped 0.1% of sickness and invalid beneficiaries into work is an "extremely expensive experiment".
But only a very small number were put through it.
IF the 151 people stay in work $18,000 apiece is worth it. It's probably less than one year's benefit payment. That's how Labour will sell it and how the public will see it.
And it's interesting to note that when the programme was launched in 2004, Katherine Rich, then social services spokeswoman, called upon the government to introduce the measures nationwide as soon as possible.
She said,"It's something that would work immediately. It is something that could get potentially productive people back into the workforce and has to be a priority for the government."
As attacks go this wasn't a very strong one from Judith Collins.
Sunday, July 23, 2006
Herbie again
Haven't blogged any art for a while. I'd almost forgotten about this pair of paintings. The gallery they were in has moved. The second sold but I had to pick up the first last week. Had some good news yesterday. Two still-lifes, which were a departure in style and subject for me, were accepted for the Academy Galleries Winter Exhibition which opens Friday. Fingers crossed they might sell.
Quote of the day
"Had you spoken thus in the old time, when the traders and grog-sellers came - had you turned them away, then you could well say to the Governor, "Go Back", and it would have been correct, straight, and I would have also said with you, "Go Back" - yes, we together as one man, one voice.But now, as things are, no, no, no. What did we do before the Pakeha came? We fought, we fought continually. But now we can plant our grounds, and the Pakeha will bring plenty of trade to our shores. Then let us keep him here. Let us all be friends together. I am walking beside the Pakeha. I'll sign...."
Tamati Waka Nene (Nga Puhi) urging that the Treat of Waitangi be signed.
(Source; Maori & Alcohol: A History, Marten Hutt)
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Severe hardship
Gerry Brownlee, speaking at the National Conference in Christchurch has drawn attention to increasing hardship for many New Zealanders, especially Maori. Many families experiencing severe hardship are single parent families on benefits.
What does it mean to be in "severe hardship" in New Zealand?
Severe hardship constitutes the lowest standard of living of seven levels.
The following table shows the constraints on children's consumption.
Here we can see that while only 37 percent went without a play station or X-box (or participation in these items) 65 percent said their children wore poorly fitting clothes or shoes.
Many poor people have topsy turvy priorities. This is why they are poor and why they stay poor.
What does it mean to be in "severe hardship" in New Zealand?
Severe hardship constitutes the lowest standard of living of seven levels.
The following table shows the constraints on children's consumption.
Here we can see that while only 37 percent went without a play station or X-box (or participation in these items) 65 percent said their children wore poorly fitting clothes or shoes.
Many poor people have topsy turvy priorities. This is why they are poor and why they stay poor.
Quote of the Day
"Many commentators have accused me of not being a 'natural politician'. If what it takes to be a natural politician is to evade the question, give misleading answers and act deceitfully, then count me out." Don Brash
Friday, July 21, 2006
Career options
What I don't get about the cop who has been moonlighting as a prostitute is, why doesn't she give her day job the flick in favour of her part-time number? I mean, she can obviously handle that kind of work and at $500 a night she could earn more being a prostitute two days a week than working full-time as a policewoman. I'd be writing myself a pro's and con's list; Prostitute or Policewoman?Which one is more appreciated?
Which one is safer?
Which one has the better uniform?
Which one gets more perks?
Which one has more free time?
Which one has better job morale?
Which one is better paid?
It's a no-brainer!
Some Aussie state politics
Here's a brave Liberal tucked away in Victoria, Australia, Ted Bailleau. The current Conservative leader is Steve Bracks.
Running up to November state elections these are Bailleau's positions;
CONDOMS IN PRISONS
■ Baillieu wants the ban lifted; Bracks supports the ban.
ABORTION
■ Baillieu supports decriminalisation; Bracks supports the status quo.
VOLUNTARY EUTHANASIA
■ Baillieu advocates its introduction; Bracks does not.
CIVIL UNIONS FOR GAYS
■ Baillieu advocates the idea; Bracks does not.
POKER MACHINES
■ Baillieu wants a cut of at least 5000; Bracks supports the present cap of 30,000.
Running up to November state elections these are Bailleau's positions;
CONDOMS IN PRISONS
■ Baillieu wants the ban lifted; Bracks supports the ban.
ABORTION
■ Baillieu supports decriminalisation; Bracks supports the status quo.
VOLUNTARY EUTHANASIA
■ Baillieu advocates its introduction; Bracks does not.
CIVIL UNIONS FOR GAYS
■ Baillieu advocates the idea; Bracks does not.
POKER MACHINES
■ Baillieu wants a cut of at least 5000; Bracks supports the present cap of 30,000.
Life expectancy research
This is interesting although the report doesn't provide enough information.
BEING working class or marrying into the working classes could dramatically reduce an individual's lifespan, new research has claimed.
A study of hundreds of female twins found those deemed working class - employed in a manual, unskilled job - can expect to age significantly faster than their middle-class peers. It could reduce life expectancy by seven years.
Consider it in the context of the life expectancy difference between Maori and non-Maori.
BEING working class or marrying into the working classes could dramatically reduce an individual's lifespan, new research has claimed.
A study of hundreds of female twins found those deemed working class - employed in a manual, unskilled job - can expect to age significantly faster than their middle-class peers. It could reduce life expectancy by seven years.
Consider it in the context of the life expectancy difference between Maori and non-Maori.
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Credit where credit's due
Good on United Future MP Judy Turner; United Future health spokeswoman Judy Turner has taken up the cudgels on behalf of the New Zealand Association of Bakers' concerns about the proposed mandatory fortification of bread with folic acid.
One and a bit percent of the population are pregnant over the course of a year but the government are considering making the entire bread-eating population consume and pay for folic acid to be added to their loaves. Talk about the proverbial sledgehammer.
No-go zones for cars
Here's one for PC who hates children being dropped off at school. The Scots, those great regulators, are considering introducing no parking zones around schools.
A total of 27 per cent of primary pupils were taken to school by car, and 15 per cent of secondary pupils. Walking has declined overall from 56 per cent in 2002 to 51 per cent in 2004. Cycling has remained at around 1 per cent.
What a great idea. It's not as though it ever rains or snows in Scotland is it? And just over one in four being driven to school! What a disaster.
A total of 27 per cent of primary pupils were taken to school by car, and 15 per cent of secondary pupils. Walking has declined overall from 56 per cent in 2002 to 51 per cent in 2004. Cycling has remained at around 1 per cent.
What a great idea. It's not as though it ever rains or snows in Scotland is it? And just over one in four being driven to school! What a disaster.
Blogger sacked
Another plus to being self-employed.
From the Herald;
The single mother and award-winning "blogueuse", whose on-line diary gets up to 3,000 hits a day, has never revealed her own identity; that of "Mr Frog", her former French partner and the father of "Tadpole", her three-year-old daughter; or that of her former employers.
But senior managers at Dixon Wilson, which has offices in London and Paris offering a "personal service to wealthy individuals and their businesses", took a dim view when word of Catherine's pensees on love and work became known in the firm's plush offices in the centre of the French capital.
On 26 April this year, she was summonsed before a senior partner and told she was being suspended pending dismissal for "faute grave" or gross misconduct.
From the Herald;
The single mother and award-winning "blogueuse", whose on-line diary gets up to 3,000 hits a day, has never revealed her own identity; that of "Mr Frog", her former French partner and the father of "Tadpole", her three-year-old daughter; or that of her former employers.
But senior managers at Dixon Wilson, which has offices in London and Paris offering a "personal service to wealthy individuals and their businesses", took a dim view when word of Catherine's pensees on love and work became known in the firm's plush offices in the centre of the French capital.
On 26 April this year, she was summonsed before a senior partner and told she was being suspended pending dismissal for "faute grave" or gross misconduct.
Now we get to the nub of it
The Herald reports, Answers to parliamentary questions from Act MP Heather Roy show 16,173 children received attention from CYF in the year to June 30, up from 10,763 in 2003.
At last someone asks the right question to get the right answer.
Contrast this to the DomPosts's claim which I posted on earlier in the week;
I don't know what the ethnic breakdown is for Heather's answer. But IF it is consistent with notifications and Maori children make up forty six percent, then around 7,500 Maori children came to the attention of CYF in the year to June 2006.
The DomPost reporter has more than trebled the real number. It will have been a mistake but by lunchtime the Prime Minister was commenting on the figure. This is how misconceptions develop a life of their own.
Update; And here the mistake is repeated again in an editorial
At last someone asks the right question to get the right answer.
Contrast this to the DomPosts's claim which I posted on earlier in the week;
I don't know what the ethnic breakdown is for Heather's answer. But IF it is consistent with notifications and Maori children make up forty six percent, then around 7,500 Maori children came to the attention of CYF in the year to June 2006.
The DomPost reporter has more than trebled the real number. It will have been a mistake but by lunchtime the Prime Minister was commenting on the figure. This is how misconceptions develop a life of their own.
Update; And here the mistake is repeated again in an editorial
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
As you asked.....
From Robson On Politics, ACT spent nearly 5 times more than Progressive According to NZPA, ACT spent $1.4 million last September and the Progressive Party $318,297. With that $1.4 million, ACT gathered 34,469 votes; Progressive's $318,297 yielded 26,441 votes. Applying the magic formula to empirically measure the relative efficiency-ratios of the 2 parties' labour-intensive canvassing to raise funds, and votes received, I invite you to calculate the size of the efficiency gap between ACT and Progressive labour.
You are Matt, thank goodness.
You are Matt, thank goodness.
Party Politics
I've been a bit slow on the uptake here. The radio news is reporting that United Future MP Gordon Copeland will lead a committee reviewing the prostitution law reform. So I assumed that this must have been part of the deal when the legislation was originally passed and that the committee would be made up of a cross section of parties or members who voted for and against. But looking at the press release I find that a review is a requirement of United Future's confidence and supply agreement. So who else is on the committee? Ex UF MP Larry Baldock, the leading opponent of prostitution law reform.
Also on the committee are Marian Hobbs and Mark Burton both of whom voted for the bill. But they are Labour MPs with an overriding interest in maintaining the support of United Future. This makes me feel rather suspicious. Are we looking at party politics undermining legislation passed by a conscience vote?
Also on the committee are Marian Hobbs and Mark Burton both of whom voted for the bill. But they are Labour MPs with an overriding interest in maintaining the support of United Future. This makes me feel rather suspicious. Are we looking at party politics undermining legislation passed by a conscience vote?
Incentivising bad behaviour
Ex-MPs John Tamihere and Willie Jackson have a daily talkback programme on Radio Live. Yesterday I was feeling particularly frustrated about the mis-reporting of Maori notifications to CYF which by lunchtime had escalated to the Prime Minister saying she was not surpised that 25,000 Maori children had been reported to CYF for suspected child abuse (I blogged on why this is wrong yesterday).
As the report was on the Radio Live news I decided to give Jackson and Tamihere a call about it and ended up having quite a long discussion with both about the benefit system and Tamihere's suggestion that the Maori Urban Authority take control of some people's benefits. One thing Tamihere and I were in agreement over is the terrible incentives inherent in the current system.
One example he described is the situation whereby parents are splitting their kids so they can both go on the DPB and receive more money. In reality they live together in a garage and the bulk of the income stream is poured into all the wrong things; drugs, alcohol, junkfood, violent DVDs and games.
At the outset the DPB was supposed to support a mother and children while the father made a living to offset some of her DPB payment. Not any more.
Here is a Jan 2005 news item about how this little rort came about;
As the report was on the Radio Live news I decided to give Jackson and Tamihere a call about it and ended up having quite a long discussion with both about the benefit system and Tamihere's suggestion that the Maori Urban Authority take control of some people's benefits. One thing Tamihere and I were in agreement over is the terrible incentives inherent in the current system.
One example he described is the situation whereby parents are splitting their kids so they can both go on the DPB and receive more money. In reality they live together in a garage and the bulk of the income stream is poured into all the wrong things; drugs, alcohol, junkfood, violent DVDs and games.
At the outset the DPB was supposed to support a mother and children while the father made a living to offset some of her DPB payment. Not any more.
Here is a Jan 2005 news item about how this little rort came about;
Diversions
The media serves up what people want. The front page of the DomPost features a story about some family group who have published guidelines about how to discipline a child by smacking.
Tucked away somewhere in the NZ Herald (I don't have the hardcopy but it's 14th in the news list) is coverage of what Don Brash told the Local government conference yesterday;
"We have seen a major blow-out in public-sector employment in this country that has unnecessarily constrained the growth of the private sector - the wealth creators.
"Both central and local government ... have started to believe that it's all about us, when in fact it is all about the hard-working individuals who make investment and employment decisions. We are here to serve them."
He went on to describe what National would do about this.
Which story has more relevance to more lives?
Tucked away somewhere in the NZ Herald (I don't have the hardcopy but it's 14th in the news list) is coverage of what Don Brash told the Local government conference yesterday;
"We have seen a major blow-out in public-sector employment in this country that has unnecessarily constrained the growth of the private sector - the wealth creators.
"Both central and local government ... have started to believe that it's all about us, when in fact it is all about the hard-working individuals who make investment and employment decisions. We are here to serve them."
He went on to describe what National would do about this.
Which story has more relevance to more lives?
Update on US welfare reform
Here is a concise overview of what has happened in the US since President Clinton canned welfare "as we know it" in 1996.
The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 was signed by President Clinton on Aug. 22, 1996. The law has transformed the way the nation helps its neediest citizens. Gone is the promise of a government check for parents raising children in poverty. In its place are 50 state programs to help those parents get jobs, says USA Today.
In 1996 4.4 million families were on AFDC (similar to our DPB). In December 2005 that number has dropped to 1.9 million. (Follow the US Today link for state by state statistics).
(In New Zealand in December 1995 there were 108,627 families on DPB. By December 2005 that number had dropped to 106,302.)
Not happy to stop there, the Bush administration renewed the push earlier this year by introducing regulations requiring states to get a further 50 percent of those still on welfare into jobs.
And we call ourselves a 'can do' country.
The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 was signed by President Clinton on Aug. 22, 1996. The law has transformed the way the nation helps its neediest citizens. Gone is the promise of a government check for parents raising children in poverty. In its place are 50 state programs to help those parents get jobs, says USA Today.
In 1996 4.4 million families were on AFDC (similar to our DPB). In December 2005 that number has dropped to 1.9 million. (Follow the US Today link for state by state statistics).
(In New Zealand in December 1995 there were 108,627 families on DPB. By December 2005 that number had dropped to 106,302.)
Not happy to stop there, the Bush administration renewed the push earlier this year by introducing regulations requiring states to get a further 50 percent of those still on welfare into jobs.
And we call ourselves a 'can do' country.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Rules and fools go together
This is a nonsense. The Kaiapoi pool has a ban on poolside nudity, which precludes even very young children being changed. A mother of four was asked yesterday to desist from changing her 16 month old away from the changing facilities.
She said the two family changing-rooms at the centre were busy when she opted to change Ophelia at the poolside, and it also allowed her to keep an eye on her other young children who were swimming.
The aquatic centre management is standing by its policy, which is also in use at other facilities nationwide.
Them's the rules.
Of course a woman can breastfeed at the poolside. I witnessed one (to borrow Oswald's description) "she-mountain" do just that. A huge mammary gland was flopped out for all to see while a large baby hung off the end. Is this nudity? No. It's that sacred cow, breastfeeding.
Not a soul would have challenged this right.
Whatever happened to exercising commonsense and a bit of decorum?
She said the two family changing-rooms at the centre were busy when she opted to change Ophelia at the poolside, and it also allowed her to keep an eye on her other young children who were swimming.
The aquatic centre management is standing by its policy, which is also in use at other facilities nationwide.
Them's the rules.
Of course a woman can breastfeed at the poolside. I witnessed one (to borrow Oswald's description) "she-mountain" do just that. A huge mammary gland was flopped out for all to see while a large baby hung off the end. Is this nudity? No. It's that sacred cow, breastfeeding.
Not a soul would have challenged this right.
Whatever happened to exercising commonsense and a bit of decorum?
Doubtful claims
The DomPost has published a piecemeal item on latest child abuse figures. It contains a false assumption and mis-matches information.
The article leads with, Nearly 25,000 Maori children have come to the attention of Child Youth and Family Services in the past year - more than any other group.
25,000 notifications does not equal 25,000 children. A substantiated case of abuse might be the result of multiple notifications.
There have been more than 63,800 cases of suspected child abuse or neglect in the past 12 months, up from 53,000 the previous year.
Then an ethnic breakdown is given which includes figures of 24,500 for Maori; Pakeha 20,300; Pacific Island 6,938; and Asian 1,247.
These figures total 52,895. Unless there are further ethnicities providing another 10,105 cases, the breakdown must refer to the previous year.
So did the reporter use the previous year's breakdown to make the already dubious claim about the most recent twelve 12 months?
It is important to get the data out there but even more important that a false picture isn't painted. The leading claim is exactly the sort of thing the Maori Party is justified in objecting to.
The article leads with, Nearly 25,000 Maori children have come to the attention of Child Youth and Family Services in the past year - more than any other group.
25,000 notifications does not equal 25,000 children. A substantiated case of abuse might be the result of multiple notifications.
There have been more than 63,800 cases of suspected child abuse or neglect in the past 12 months, up from 53,000 the previous year.
Then an ethnic breakdown is given which includes figures of 24,500 for Maori; Pakeha 20,300; Pacific Island 6,938; and Asian 1,247.
These figures total 52,895. Unless there are further ethnicities providing another 10,105 cases, the breakdown must refer to the previous year.
So did the reporter use the previous year's breakdown to make the already dubious claim about the most recent twelve 12 months?
It is important to get the data out there but even more important that a false picture isn't painted. The leading claim is exactly the sort of thing the Maori Party is justified in objecting to.
Monday, July 17, 2006
A new role for public health
The following is synonymous with the public health view across the world.
Now some Americans believe the only solution to funding future healthcare is to have a government-run compulsory health insurance system. This from Ron Bailey provides a glimpse of such a future;
"When anyone dies at an early age from a preventable cause in New York City, it's my fault," New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden declared recently (Financial Times registration required). In his campaign to make sure that no New Yorker dies before his or her time, Frieden has adopted an expansive notion of public health.
Historically, public health has focused on protecting people from the risks of communicable diseases. Thus public health officials have been empowered to mandate vaccinations, require the chlorination of water, order that milk be pasteurized, and quarantine sick people in order to control epidemics. Even the city's recent broad smoking ban was justified in part on the grounds that smokers were harming the health of others by exposing them to second-hand smoke.
But safeguarding people from the risks potentially imposed on them by third parties is no longer enough—Frieden now wants to protect people from themselves.....
Now some Americans believe the only solution to funding future healthcare is to have a government-run compulsory health insurance system. This from Ron Bailey provides a glimpse of such a future;
"When anyone dies at an early age from a preventable cause in New York City, it's my fault," New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden declared recently (Financial Times registration required). In his campaign to make sure that no New Yorker dies before his or her time, Frieden has adopted an expansive notion of public health.
Historically, public health has focused on protecting people from the risks of communicable diseases. Thus public health officials have been empowered to mandate vaccinations, require the chlorination of water, order that milk be pasteurized, and quarantine sick people in order to control epidemics. Even the city's recent broad smoking ban was justified in part on the grounds that smokers were harming the health of others by exposing them to second-hand smoke.
But safeguarding people from the risks potentially imposed on them by third parties is no longer enough—Frieden now wants to protect people from themselves.....
Sunday, July 16, 2006
Easier to rip off
Here is one of the reasons so many people are on the invalid benefits. This WINZ case manager, now jailed for fraud, was given a birth certificate found on a street;
He used it to create an imaginary person named Manuel Jakes, who began to receive unemployment benefit and later an invalid benefit because checks on that benefit were not so stringent.
He used it to create an imaginary person named Manuel Jakes, who began to receive unemployment benefit and later an invalid benefit because checks on that benefit were not so stringent.
Lay-offs
According to Stuff some sectors are finding it tough;
Businesses might be feeling the pinch, but an unemployment rate at 3.9% is still about as good as it gets anywhere in the world.
But figures in fine print in the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion tell a different story.
In manufacturing, for example, a net 25% of businesses surveyed by the Institute of Economic Research laid off staff during the three months to June.
The last time manufacturers did that was in 1997.
A net 14% of merchants - retailers and wholesalers - also laid off staff.
In both instances, the culprits were the same, said institute director Brent Layton.
Margins are being squeezed as costs soar - more than 60% of manufacturers and merchants reported increased costs, compared with 20% previously. Higher prices and a high dollar are largely to blame.
Profits are down - for 49% of merchants and 38% of manufacturers.
Businesses say they intend to raise prices to recover those squeezed margins, but markets are so competitive that few do.
Instead, workers are laid off.
On the plus side the services and building industries are holding up well.
Businesses might be feeling the pinch, but an unemployment rate at 3.9% is still about as good as it gets anywhere in the world.
But figures in fine print in the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion tell a different story.
In manufacturing, for example, a net 25% of businesses surveyed by the Institute of Economic Research laid off staff during the three months to June.
The last time manufacturers did that was in 1997.
A net 14% of merchants - retailers and wholesalers - also laid off staff.
In both instances, the culprits were the same, said institute director Brent Layton.
Margins are being squeezed as costs soar - more than 60% of manufacturers and merchants reported increased costs, compared with 20% previously. Higher prices and a high dollar are largely to blame.
Profits are down - for 49% of merchants and 38% of manufacturers.
Businesses say they intend to raise prices to recover those squeezed margins, but markets are so competitive that few do.
Instead, workers are laid off.
On the plus side the services and building industries are holding up well.
Organised crime
There was an article in yesterday's DomPost about gangs and the escalation of organised crime and links to overseas organisations. Police Association president Greg O'Connor says that it is "inevitable" that gangs will infiltrate government departments, local bodies and even the police eventually. Their spheres of influence and intimidation are widening. A couple of years back I asked a friend in the force for almost thirty years why gangs were less visible on the streets and on bikes. This was after I saw a group pulled up in an expensive late model car. He said more or less what Greg confirms. That having moved into organised crime, and having more at stake, they keep a lower profile.
Saturday, July 15, 2006
WSWS - apolgists for Kahui killers
This is the only international report I have seen about the Kahui killings. Has to be read to be believed;
The tragic deaths in New Zealand last month of 11-week old Maori twins is being used to justify a wide-ranging campaign by the media, police and political establishment against the most oppressed and impoverished layers of the country’s Maori population.....
The purpose of this vicious campaign has been to avoid any probing of the deeper social causes of the tragedy. While the violence committed against the Kahui twins was particularly horrendous, so too are the social conditions under which the most vulnerable are forced to live their lives. The hysteria is aimed at directing any real examination away from where the real responsibility lies—with successive governments of all stripes and their social agendas.....
Far from tackling the terrible social problems that lie at the heart of the Kahui twins’ death, these “solutions” will simply create the conditions for more such tragedies. They will serve to further brutalise the most oppressed sections of society and to create even more intolerable pressures on their daily lives. At the same time, they will be used to drastically reduce government expenditure on social programs—a key demand of New Zealand big business.
The tragic deaths in New Zealand last month of 11-week old Maori twins is being used to justify a wide-ranging campaign by the media, police and political establishment against the most oppressed and impoverished layers of the country’s Maori population.....
The purpose of this vicious campaign has been to avoid any probing of the deeper social causes of the tragedy. While the violence committed against the Kahui twins was particularly horrendous, so too are the social conditions under which the most vulnerable are forced to live their lives. The hysteria is aimed at directing any real examination away from where the real responsibility lies—with successive governments of all stripes and their social agendas.....
Far from tackling the terrible social problems that lie at the heart of the Kahui twins’ death, these “solutions” will simply create the conditions for more such tragedies. They will serve to further brutalise the most oppressed sections of society and to create even more intolerable pressures on their daily lives. At the same time, they will be used to drastically reduce government expenditure on social programs—a key demand of New Zealand big business.
He is wrong
Now I am really pissed at Bob Geldof who says it is no defence that New Zealand's non-government aid to the Third World is high. Much of global poverty was government business. Only governments could deal with the structures of extreme poverty. Private aid dealt with the symptoms.
Below is one of the kids we've sponsored and a typical piece from the regular progress reports we receive. He lives in Mali, one of the poorest countries in the world with 65 percent of its land desert or semi-desert. World Vision builds schools, irrigation systems, they train people in income generating activities and they educate about loan management, primary health and nutrition. That doesn't sound like dealing with the symptoms to me.
If government taxes more to increase their international aid contribution, taxpayers are likely to donate less to those private charities which are so effective. The first part is exactly what Geldof is pushing for and the second part is what obviously doesn't matter to him because he believes private charity only deals with the symptoms.
Below is one of the kids we've sponsored and a typical piece from the regular progress reports we receive. He lives in Mali, one of the poorest countries in the world with 65 percent of its land desert or semi-desert. World Vision builds schools, irrigation systems, they train people in income generating activities and they educate about loan management, primary health and nutrition. That doesn't sound like dealing with the symptoms to me.
If government taxes more to increase their international aid contribution, taxpayers are likely to donate less to those private charities which are so effective. The first part is exactly what Geldof is pushing for and the second part is what obviously doesn't matter to him because he believes private charity only deals with the symptoms.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Sorry, but....
...bugger off Bob. Heard him on radio lambasting New Zealand for our governments "pathetic" contributions to international aid. Good. Governments give away taxpayer's money willy-nilly. Has he looked at New Zealander's support for private agencies like World Vision and CCF?We put our money where we know agencies are getting results because they account to us. Govt to govt aid is probably the most likely to be subject to corruption.
Geldof is well-intended I know, and likeable to boot but....talk about a statist.
Friday funny
A married couple rushed to the hospital because the woman was in labour. The doctor told them, "There's a new machine you might want to try; it transfers some of the labour pains from the mother to the father." The couple agreed to try it, so the doctor hooked the machine up and set it to transfer 10 percent of the pain from the mother to the father. The husband said, "I feel okay, so turn it up more." The doctor turned it up to 50 percent, and the husband said "Why not put it all on me because I'm not feeling a thing." The doctor warned them "This much could kill you if you're not prepared," and only when the husband confirmed he was ready, turned the machine up to 100 percent. Still the husband didn't feel a thing, and both went home happy it had been a pain-free labour. When they got home they found the gardener dead on the front lawn.
Maori Party and IT
The Maori Party website is one of the best political sites. Hats off to them for some of the IT possibilities they are exploring. Like this;
Join your Maori Party Members of Parliament to discuss
The Māori Electoral Option
LIVE from the studios of Radio Kahungunu in Hawkes Bay
Friday July 14th, at 10am
Click here to listen or http://www.irirangi.net/stations2.asp?id=19#
PHONE (06) 872 8943 WITH YOUR QUESTIONS
Unfortunately I won't be near the computer at that time.
Join your Maori Party Members of Parliament to discuss
The Māori Electoral Option
LIVE from the studios of Radio Kahungunu in Hawkes Bay
Friday July 14th, at 10am
Click here to listen or http://www.irirangi.net/stations2.asp?id=19#
PHONE (06) 872 8943 WITH YOUR QUESTIONS
Unfortunately I won't be near the computer at that time.
Legalize tinnie houses now!
People in Twizel are complaining to the council because houses are being built of unpainted corrugated iron and they are too shiny;
Shiny houses are out as far as the Twizel Community Board is concerned.
Board chairman Bruce White said at a recent community board meeting they had received complaints about the use of unpainted corrugated iron cladding on new houses.
He said people were complaining because of the reflection from the tin.
"People are getting headaches when they drive past."
The community board were not opposed to the use of corrugated iron but it needed to be painted he said.
Mackenzie District Council senior planner Hayley Shearer said there was a recommended colour palette in place for Twizel since 1994 but it was not a requirement.
Shiny houses are out as far as the Twizel Community Board is concerned.
Board chairman Bruce White said at a recent community board meeting they had received complaints about the use of unpainted corrugated iron cladding on new houses.
He said people were complaining because of the reflection from the tin.
"People are getting headaches when they drive past."
The community board were not opposed to the use of corrugated iron but it needed to be painted he said.
Mackenzie District Council senior planner Hayley Shearer said there was a recommended colour palette in place for Twizel since 1994 but it was not a requirement.
Some good news
In the interests of balance and objectivity I am bound to report that New Plymouth prison has apparently found the key to keeping prisons drug-free. Closer work with police, greater use of drug dogs but most particularly the confiscation of mobile phones. Good work.
Spend it on prevention
It'll be mildly interesting watching Labour deal with the report described on the front-page of today's NZ Herald;
Crime costs New Zealand $9.1 billion a year, and Government efforts to fight it are not working, says a hard-hitting Treasury report.
But according to Annette King, on becoming Minister of Police, “In the past six years, we have added more than 1400 police staff, the crime rate has reduced 13.8 percent, and crime resolution rates are increasingly steadily. Recorded crime is down to levels last seen over 20 years ago and our resolution rates equate exceedingly well with other police agencies world-wide."
Back to the Herald, It singles out the rising number of people in prison and the cost of keeping them there, as an example, and makes several suggestions aimed at reducing both.
They include reviewing the policy of longer sentences and re-introducing suspended sentences.
But Labour has claimed repeatedly that crime is down due, in part, to the success of the Sentencing and Parole Reform Act.
Personally I don't mind if we spend 7 percent of gdp on crime but let's get the balance right. The figures should look more like $7b on fighting and preventing crime and $2b on picking up the costs of any failure. Not the other way around.
Oh, and the first thing we should be doing is discouraging the births of more budding criminals right now.
Crime costs New Zealand $9.1 billion a year, and Government efforts to fight it are not working, says a hard-hitting Treasury report.
But according to Annette King, on becoming Minister of Police, “In the past six years, we have added more than 1400 police staff, the crime rate has reduced 13.8 percent, and crime resolution rates are increasingly steadily. Recorded crime is down to levels last seen over 20 years ago and our resolution rates equate exceedingly well with other police agencies world-wide."
Back to the Herald, It singles out the rising number of people in prison and the cost of keeping them there, as an example, and makes several suggestions aimed at reducing both.
They include reviewing the policy of longer sentences and re-introducing suspended sentences.
But Labour has claimed repeatedly that crime is down due, in part, to the success of the Sentencing and Parole Reform Act.
Personally I don't mind if we spend 7 percent of gdp on crime but let's get the balance right. The figures should look more like $7b on fighting and preventing crime and $2b on picking up the costs of any failure. Not the other way around.
Oh, and the first thing we should be doing is discouraging the births of more budding criminals right now.
Thursday, July 13, 2006
"Fathers out of the picture"
The Times says, "Fathers out of the picture." As if that's a new development. Many fathers have been either willingly or unwillingly out of the picture for a long time.
But this headline pertains to reform of an act governing requirements for IVF. Single mothers and lesbians will no longer be discriminated against. Clinics won't have to consider a father as necessary to a child's welfare.
Indulging some sentimentality for a moment - I don't like to think what my life would have been like without my dear Dad. But I've been lucky. A few kids are better off not knowing their Dads or even their Mums.
Children born through IVF treatment are sure to be wanted and cherished.
But, just as an after-thought, I wonder if the applicant for treatment has to prove financial capability for raising the child? Harder for a would-be single mother. I guess if the clinic can't discriminate against a lesbian or single mother they can't discriminate against a would-be beneficiary.
(Govt funded IVF treatment for single women and lesbians was introduced here in 2000. Muriel Newman described it as "start-up" finance for getting on the DPB.)
But this headline pertains to reform of an act governing requirements for IVF. Single mothers and lesbians will no longer be discriminated against. Clinics won't have to consider a father as necessary to a child's welfare.
Indulging some sentimentality for a moment - I don't like to think what my life would have been like without my dear Dad. But I've been lucky. A few kids are better off not knowing their Dads or even their Mums.
Children born through IVF treatment are sure to be wanted and cherished.
But, just as an after-thought, I wonder if the applicant for treatment has to prove financial capability for raising the child? Harder for a would-be single mother. I guess if the clinic can't discriminate against a lesbian or single mother they can't discriminate against a would-be beneficiary.
(Govt funded IVF treatment for single women and lesbians was introduced here in 2000. Muriel Newman described it as "start-up" finance for getting on the DPB.)
Strange choice of words
The Societ for the Protection of Community Standards has a real bee in its bonnet over Charles Chauvel's becoming an MP. This is a strange choice of words;
The fact that Mr Chauvel is practising homosexual man is hugely significant to the Labour Party.
Practising? Have you ever heard any other MP described as a practising heterosexual?? And if he wasn't "practising" would he be less significant to the Labour Party?
The fact that Mr Chauvel is practising homosexual man is hugely significant to the Labour Party.
Practising? Have you ever heard any other MP described as a practising heterosexual?? And if he wasn't "practising" would he be less significant to the Labour Party?
Logistics of the welfare state
Some interesting statistics from the US, relevant here as many 'western' countries are following the same trends.
Longer life expectancy, delayed marriage and childbearing, and increased childlessness add up to a longer life without kids, says Barbara Dafoe Whitehead in a new report released by the nonpartisan National Marriage Project at Rutgers University.
Looking through U.S. Census data as well as cultural and social research, Whitehead found:
* In 1970, 73.6 percent of women ages 25-29 had at least 1 minor child at home; 30 years later, only 48.7 percent did.
* In 1990, the most common household type was married couples with children. Now, single-parent, childless households are the most prevalent.
* Today, more women in their 40s are childless, the report says. Only 1 in 10 were childless in 1976; while in 2004, it was about 1 in 5.
It's ironic that welfare states in developed countries have actually reduced the number of children produced yet the life-blood of welfare states is an adequate supply of budding taxpayers. There is no way that current demographic trends will allow our welfare state to continue as we know it.
Longer life expectancy, delayed marriage and childbearing, and increased childlessness add up to a longer life without kids, says Barbara Dafoe Whitehead in a new report released by the nonpartisan National Marriage Project at Rutgers University.
Looking through U.S. Census data as well as cultural and social research, Whitehead found:
* In 1970, 73.6 percent of women ages 25-29 had at least 1 minor child at home; 30 years later, only 48.7 percent did.
* In 1990, the most common household type was married couples with children. Now, single-parent, childless households are the most prevalent.
* Today, more women in their 40s are childless, the report says. Only 1 in 10 were childless in 1976; while in 2004, it was about 1 in 5.
It's ironic that welfare states in developed countries have actually reduced the number of children produced yet the life-blood of welfare states is an adequate supply of budding taxpayers. There is no way that current demographic trends will allow our welfare state to continue as we know it.
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