Friday, November 06, 2020

Are beneficiary incomes too low?

 The new government is going to come under a great deal of pressure to lift beneficiary incomes from many quarters: CPAG, AAAP, Salvation Army, The Christian Council of Social Services, to name a few advocacy groups. Their parliamentary partners, the Greens, will also be exerting pressure.

Are beneficiary incomes too low?

One way of looking at it is, how do they compare internationally?

Below I have charted the assistance available to a single parent in Australia versus a single parent in New Zealand. I've only included the major income components: basic benefit rate, family tax credits for children and accommodation assistance. Certainly in NZ there is extra assistance available via special grants for additional accommodation needs, food etc. As well in Australia anyone currently on a benefit is receiving a Corona Virus $125 weekly supplement until December 31, 2020. That is not included. I modelled a parent with young children as that is when they are most likely to be on income support.




Although NZ's basic benefit rate is lower, family tax credits are slightly higher and maximum accommodation supplements are a lot higher resulting in a substantial difference between total incomes. Yes, its slightly cheaper to rent in Brisbane than Auckland but the government is only going to pick up a small portion of the cost.

Sources:

https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/parenting-payment/how-much-you-can-get

https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/family-tax-benefit/how-much-you-can-get/ftb-part-payment-rates#baserate

https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/rent-assistance/how-much-you-can-get

https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/benefit-rates/benefit-rates-april-2020.html#null


Thursday, November 05, 2020

Unemployment rate versus Jobseeker uptake

The following graphs compare the September 2020 unemployment data released yesterday by Stats NZ with corresponding MSD Jobseeker benefit data. The first is a regional breakdown of the % of working age population on the Jobseeker benefit versus the regional unemployment rate:




The disparaties are more marked in the provinces (though StatsNZ reports Tasman/ Nelson/Marlborough/ West Coast as one region at 3.5% whereas MSD benefit data is localised).

The next depicts the numbers unemployed versus the numbers on Jobseeker by ethnicity.





Again it is to be expected that there will be some disparity given that Stats NZ data is a survey extrapolation whereas MSD data is actual receipt. 

For Stats NZ purposes, the 'unemployed' are offcially: "All people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, were without a paid job, available for work, and had either actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week, or had a new job to start within the next four weeks."

Based on that definition, many Maori  recipients of the Jobseeker benefit are not actually seeking jobs. Perhaps because they have a 'health condition or disability' as do 35 percent of those receiving JS.

Or, they have a part-time job and also receive JS.

I don't think the large gap necessarily shows anything fraudulent. But it does highlight a different employment pattern for Maori. For instance I expect there may be quite a number of Maori sole parents with older children, doing part-time work and being topped up by the Jobseeker benefit.

They are in the blue column but not the orange.


Monday, November 02, 2020

New Police Minister: Does she still want to reverse the burden of proof?

 Poto Williams has been appointed Minister for Police. 

I recall being rather alarmed about her views just three years ago:

Labour MP Poto Williams is calling for rape investigations to reverse the "innocent until proven guilty" legal methodology.

Labour's sexual violence spokesperson, Mrs Williams has called for radical reform of the sexual justice system which would see rape accusers believed by police as a starting point.

This would place the burden of proof on the accused - directly contradicting the philosophy of "innocent until proven guilty".

It's conceivable the new Minister for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Green MP Marama Davidson could throw her weight behind this.

Am I wrong to be worried that we are in for some scary stuff?

And how come Greg O'Connor has never gotten anywhere near a police ministerial role with his decades of experience?

Too conservative. By a long shot.

The number of babies removed halves in two years

 Data from Oranga Tamariki show that in the year to June 2020, 151 babies  - aged up to three months old - were removed by the state due to concerns about their care and safety. (While officially under state care babies are most commonly removed to the care of a family member).

In 2018 the number was 299. A halving.

But the number of babies 'referred for assessment or investigation' dropped only slightly from 1,899 in 2018 to 1,848 in 2020.



A number of inferences can be taken.

Based on the investigation level being relatively stable, a large drop in removals must mean a change in policy/ threshold. That could indicate a lack of resources, eg available caregivers, or a deliberate attempt to lower the number due to political pressure.

I am eternally suspicious of sudden large changes in numbers in any data BUT to be fair OT has signalled a cultural change in behaviours.

I just hope like hell that this change in procedure - for whatever reason - will mean better outcomes for the babies. OT has claimed it as a success. Surely it's a little too soon to tell.

(Note also that the brief containing this data makes no mention of ethnicity. Also a departure from usual practice.)

Friday, October 30, 2020

Resounding referendum result

 David Seymour decided to draw up his End of Life Choice Bill five years ago. His primary reason was compassion. He believed it was the right thing to do. To the degree that he turned down two ministerships in the John Key government in order to pursue his bill.

The bill was drawn from the ballot on June 7, 2017 - before the 2017 election. It then went to parliamentary debate but NZ First made their support conditional on a referendum. I'm glad they did and was always confident that the public would support the bill. Why? Because this was the third time a voluntary euthanasia bill had been to parliament and the issue was not going away. Support was growing.

The 2020 referendum returned almost two thirds in favour.

What a great result.

Thank you David for the decision you made 5 years ago.



Thursday, October 29, 2020

Alarm bells

 RNZ reports on the Waitangi Tribunal hearing into the disproportionate number of Maori children in state care:

Dr Alison Green is completing her post-doctoral research at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, comparing the policy for removing indigenous children from their families in both Canada and New Zealand.

She points to a federal government law passed in Canada last year as a mechanism New Zealand could draw from to put in place the structural changes needed to devolve power from Oranga Tamariki to Māori.

Bill C-92 gives First Nations, Inuit and Metis collectives in Canada the right to create and enforce legislation to look after their own children.

In January this year in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, the Cowessess First Nation enacted their own legislation which gives them to the right to operate their own child protection services based on their cultural practices.

Green suggested those redesigning how Oranga Tamariki interacts with Māori children should approach the Cowessess First Nations.

The implementation of indigenous responsibility for indigenous children is not new in Canada. The provincial devolution of services to native tribes has been ongoing and not much has changed. Bill C-92, a federal law, only expands the scope of devolution. 

I urge you to read An Endless Cycle of Despair by Brian Giesbrecht an ex Provincial Court Judge in Manitoba, Canada.

Excerpt (picks up the story in the 1970s/80s):

Out-adoption was eventually abandoned in favour of devolution as provincial child welfare authorities relinquished most of their authority over reserves to local Indigenous agencies such as the DOCFS in Manitoba. As a sitting judge, I watched as this policy unfolded in real time.

Advocates assured provincial governments that as newly formed Indigenous agencies opened up and Indigenous leaders gained more control, the old problems would ease. Appropriate cultural influence would inevitably reduce the number of children in care. Some even claimed chronic Indigenous welfare problems would disappear altogether. I once expressed my skepticism to a highly placed welfare bureaucrat. He candidly, if naively, responded: “How could it possibly be worse than the current situation?”

As it turned out, it could. To the story of Lester Desjarlais, we have added the equally tragic stories of Tina Fontaine, Phoenix Sinclair, Serenity and Devon Freeman, to name just a few of the better-known entries from a long list of despair. In Manitoba, approximately 90 percent of the province’s 11,000 children under the care of a child welfare agency are Indigenous, either on or off reserve. The biological parents of these children are often themselves products of an Indigenized child welfare system.

And because off-reserve adoption has been so severely discouraged, many children are placed in temporary foster care instead of with permanent families. This means that when they reach adulthood they are often left to fend for themselves, without any reliable family supports. This is one major reason why the majority of homeless people on Winnipeg’s streets are believed to be former child welfare wards. Meanwhile, FASD takes its toll on reserves, generation after generation.

Many of the Indigenous organizations given responsibility for child welfare were initially incapable of protecting native kids. Training and education among staff were dramatically different from the provincially-run agencies and these problems were exacerbated by dysfunction and corruption within other reserve institutions, including school boards and local government, as the Lester Desjarlais inquiry painfully illustrated. Again, this is not a racially-motivated accusation; the size of many reserves’ polity leaves them especially prone to conflicts of interest and nepotism. The problem of “small democracies” is detailed in University of Calgary academic Tom Flanagan’s 2016 study Corruption and First Nations in Canada.

Today, staff at Indigenous-run agencies are much better credentialed and the organizations more professional. After several decades of devolution, the care provided to children at risk is now largely equivalent to provincially-run child welfare agencies. Yet the statistics continue to worsen. Indigenization alone is clearly not sufficient to remedy the massive problems facing Indigenous children. Regardless of who is in charge, the root causes remain: addiction, family breakdown and poor community oversight. It has even become common for Indigenous child welfare workers to be criticized for making the same difficult choices that federal and provincial child welfare workers once made during previous eras.


 

When devolution began, it was common for Indigenous agencies to declare that no native babies would ever be apprehended from maternity wards. Parental and cultural rights would trump the rights of children at risk. This belief is further embedded in Bill C-92 through its “cultural continuity” requirement. Yet Indigenous child welfare officials have lately come to realize that leaving a newborn baby with his or her mother can be so fraught with risk that immediate apprehension is the only safe option.

That was the situation in the high-profile G (DF) case, in which a Winnipeg-based Indigenous child welfare agency tried to detain an addicted pregnant mother for treatment. She had previously given birth to several brain-damaged babies, yet the Supreme Court of Canada ultimately decided that detention violated the mother’s rights and, hence, was unlawful. The child, and many others since, was therefore consigned to a fate of painfully low chances.

After more than 30 years on the bench, it was clear to me that governments and agencies have very little control over how parents actually care for their children, or the eventual outcomes. Child welfare workers, Indigenous or non-Indigenous, are all motivated by a deep desire to do what is best for children under their watch. If a child has become a permanent ward of the state, it is almost certain that his or her home life was thoroughly and irreparably dysfunctional. Accordingly, the only way to remedy the high number of native children in foster care is to tackle the root cases. Family dysfunction on reserves is not the fault of child welfare agencies. The blame lies with parents and their communities.

It is this difficult reality that the federal government was trying to cope with using residential schools, and the provinces with the Sixties Scoop. Given the subsequent failure of devolution to remedy the situation, it is impossible to imagine a further push to sever native child welfare from the rest of the country will yield the desired results.

If Canada truly wishes to reduce the number of Indigenous children in foster care – and all Canadians have a stake in this outcome − we must start by emphasizing the importance of sobriety, parental responsibility and family stability among all citizens. Instead, Ottawa has chosen to place the blame for native child welfare failures on past injustices such as colonialism and institutional racism.


Ring any bells? 

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

"...there's going to be fruit sitting on the ground rotting"

 Alexandra 387

Balclutha  594

Dunedin Central 3,241

Gore  562

Invercargill 3,033

Mosgiel 414

Oamaru 704

Queenstown 588

South Dunedin 984

Timaru 1,655

Total 12,162

These are the number of people on Jobseeker Support at September 30, 2020.

I post them on the back of a conversation between Mike Hosking, Mark Mitchell  and Stuart Nash on NewstalkZB this morning. Nash was in denial that there are thousands of people on the unemployment benefit who don't want to work whereas Mark Mitchell had been down to the Blossom festival in Alexandra and said there are "six and a half thousand jobs empty at the moment"  as a consequence "there's going to be fruit sitting on the ground rotting."

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

No lockdown for Lockey

 On the lighter side of life, prior to the first lockdown I was providing daycare for two extra dogs. The arrangement had run for about a year. Lockey, a chihuahua cross, was slow to warm to me. On our very first day together out walking he took off, me in vain pursuit and high-tailed it for home. I gathered up the other ward and my own, went home. We drove around to his house on the hill and coaxed him back into the car. The months passed and Lockey got surer about me. Then April came and the arrangement couldn't stand. But within days there was yapping at the front gate. Lockey had brought himself around. And so the habit has continued. Most days he turns up early and someone will collect him late in the day. We have all agreed that it works for him and it works for us.



Purposefully re-purposing motels

Apparently some moteliers have sold out to purchasers happy to accommodate the need for emergency housing. They charge way over the normal asking price per unit and seem prepared to operate this new 'model'. I've heard multiple reports of damage and trouble associated with some WINZ occupants (and it can't be pleasant for other WINZ occupants having to live amongst it either). 

Regardless, the practise and cost to the taxpayer is ballooning. In the last September quarter it was reported at $83 million - up from $9 million three years ago. 

The following recent post from a motel owner seems to suggest the conclusion I had arrived at - that the government would do better to buy these motels outright and modify or rebuild - is already afoot. Although asking prices will be inflated it is better the taxpayer gets stung once rather than repeatedly and indefinitely. And under three more years of Labour more state housing of one form or another is a given.

Anyway lest I be accused of 'beneficiary bashing' yet again, here is the owner of Tongariro River Motel's experience and explanation for why he will no longer accept WINZ clients:

TRM continue to receive regular requests for emergency accommodation from WINZ/MSD-type “clients”. They are easily recognised when they request two or three weeks and never ask the $ room rate! TRM have recently been questioned for refusing their applications with criticism – accused of being selfishly selective – which deserves response.

TRM are targeted as it has older style low density with larger family units offering more spacious living accommodation. Every unit has under cover parking and fully equipped kitchens with full sized ovens, fridge freezer units, microwaves, etc. particularly to cater for fishos wanting to stay several weeks every year. Many of them from across the ditch are missing in action this season so the continual requests to provide “emergency housing” have continued.

It is understandable or simple economics in other motels which have been left struggling to survive with the lack of tourist traffic. When MSD clients need emergency housing they cannot afford not to open their doors. The “clients” are allowed to choose the motel which suits them best.

TRM’s first WINZ client last year booked a studio through the iSite for one week. As it was quiet at the time the room rate was reduced by 20% and she was upgraded into a larger one bedroom unit. After booking in, the rest of her whanau moved in with two large guard dogs for the rest of the week. It was a disaster.

When we visited the local WINZ office to request their help to remove them they denied any responsibility claiming the guest had booked through the iSite. When their culpability was questioned they called their security guards and I was “escorted” off the premises. Unbelievable!

During the difficult covid lockdown period TRM remained open and reluctantly accepted two other desperate cases. Both had unfortunate issues which were incompatible with other fishy guests, who advised they would not return if TRM was going to accommodate these emergency guests. We had to agree with them. After property damage and thefts they were both forced to leave anyway.

So for an obviously selfish reason TRM have continued their “no-WINZ” clients policy. We trust you can understand why. It is hard to believe how other motels persevere with them at all. In Taupo and Rotorua we know of massive motel price hikes to compensate for the anticipated damage and trouble, but that is not our style. TRM management and inmates prefer the motel to be half empty to enjoy the jovial considerate company of anglers instead. It is such a cruel world out there.



Monday, October 26, 2020

On the PM going forward

 The election has come and gone and we have the same Prime Minister. She says she will govern "for all New Zealanders". If that was possible then our whole political system would be redundant. She can't govern for me because I disagree with her philosophical ideas about how to solve problems. If she could govern for all New Zealanders why did ACT garner so many votes? It's a fatuous statement accorded no critical analysis. What's more, she isn't a personality who can turn a diversity of opinion  into consensus because she is a polariser. New Zealanders either think she is The Second Coming, or see her as a signaller of little substance. No doubt she is smart and strong. That doesn't dictate that she has any sense of what she wants to achieve for New Zealand or how to go about it. The first three years have demonstrated that. If the problem was actually NZ First, or the Greens, she now has the golden opportunity to prove that. I'm sticking with my initial prediction that she won't make a dent in child poverty and the many regrettable statistics that show child wellbeing in NZ leaves much to be desired.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Bitter sweet nostalgia and a prediction I stand by

From my archives, a post written just prior to the 2017 election:

Jacinda versus Bill: TV One Debate

Jacinda would be great cast as the humble, charismatic  up-and-coming politician who wins hearts and minds. Tom Hanks would play the male equivalent.

But this is an election. Not Hollywood.

Bill wouldn't be cast by any director. He gets tongue-twisted, he misses his cues and he resides very much in the head space where facts are a given and don't need ardent defence or advocacy. They speak for themselves - thank goodness. Because he does't.

But on a more subtle level, Bill versus Jacinda found a perfect performance in him. There was not a skerrick of anything  unsightly or ugly. He looks like the man who continues to do the business; who gets what aspiring NZers are about, and is respectful. We might have preferred more sass and sparks but that wasn't going to happen.

Bill is a bit of a bumbler. The crew had to contain him when the show ended. He went to move away and then realised he was supposed to stay still. Is that the man who can't wait to get out of the limelight or the man who needs to move on to the next task?

Personally I just think it's the man who has a job to do and finds all of the media stuff an unwelcome intrusion and burden.

That's the kind of character I would to prefer running the country.

Let's never forget that as Minister for Social Welfare Steve Maharey spent his period in office defending welfare dependency. Bill English turned that on its head. He sought to understand what drove it and what would reduce it. English goes deep when it comes to social deprivation.

Jacinda would return to pulling the levers that drive it.


The longer we delay raising the Super age, the more painful it will be

 The country is facing  not only a cartload (polite descriptor) of debt to be repaid but burgeoning costs of supporting a rapidly expanding 65+ population.

An article from Stuff today compares NZ's system to others noting:

This year’s Global Pension Index from Mercer showed that New Zealand’s retirement income system had slipped down the rankings, from eighth to 10th.

Then the retirement commissioner points out:

...that might sound worrying but the country was still in the “B team”. Only Netherlands and Denmark scored an A. 

What is the retirement age in these two countries?

 In the Netherlands it is currently 66 years and 4 months and will reach 67 in 2024. Most interestingly, "For those born after 30 September 1957, the statutory retirement age is linked to life expectancy."

And in Denmark what was 65 is gradually rising to age 67 from 2019 to 2022 and to age 68 by 2030.

New Zealand is well out of step with most other nations notably those we most frequently align with - the UK, Australia and the US.

The longer we delay raising the Super age, the more rapid and painful the inevitable implementation will be.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Little will to get people into jobs

 


When people receive a benefit they have certain obligations eg to accept a job when one becomes available. If they fail to meet these obligations they lose part or all of their benefit.

Has that become an archaic idea?

Naturally the imposition of sanctions dropped off during the initial lock-down but since then the numbers have been very low.

I believe one reason is that WINZ has been so busy processing applicants for assistance other functions have been suspended.

But it is also likely that compaints from various sectors that they can't find workers is also connected with WINZ reticence/inability to actually chase people up to meet their obligations.

When Labour took office in 2017 they appointed the Welfare Expert Advisory Group to make recommendations on the overhaul of the welfare system. Here is an excerpt from one of the papers provided to the group:

Out of 40 [OECD] countries, New Zealand ranked:

 6th most strict for availability requirements and suitable work criteria

 20th (in the middle of the group) for strictness of job-search requirements and

monitoring

 27th for strictness of sanctions

 14th most strict overall (Langenbucher, 2015).

It'd be safe to say NZ will have fallen down those rankings since. 

Monday, October 19, 2020

Over a third of Maori children on welfare before first birthday

 


Around 36 percent of Maori children aged 0 were included in a benefit during the year ended July 2020. This is up from 33.7% in the year to July 2017. For non-Maori the proportion is 18% - up from 15.9% three years earlier.

These stats sit at the core of ongoing and disproportionate Maori disadvantage.

The answer isn't to increase benefit payment rates (which the new Labour government will come under enormous pressure to do.) It's to increase educational achievement and employment.


Saturday, October 17, 2020

"1pm Covid Health Update for 17th October, 2020"

 This is funny on a day when some of us will probably be in dire need a dose of levity by close.


Friday, October 16, 2020

Benefit numbers climb - a trend established pre-Covid

 

 
Since Labour took office the Jobseeker trend has been upward.

All main benefits which include sole parent and supported living payments have now exceeded GFC levels with an additional 534 recipients in the week to 9 October 2020. 

Since Covid:




Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Prime Minister's Big Fail

 




(Child data not publicly available. Graph compiled from OIA responses.)

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Child poverty not driven by historic benefit cuts

The impoverishment of children after the infamous, historical  benefit cuts continues to be pushed by a host of leftists including the Children's Commissioner as a sound reason to now lift benefits substantially.

Here's a breakdown of state-dependent sole parent incomes in 1989 (Q1) and 2020 (Q2):

The tables are compiled from three sources:

The NZ Yearbook 1988/89, MSD Benefit Rate information, The Reserve Bank Inflation Calculator.


The first comparison has the 2020 sole parent receiving more.

But accommodation does make up a larger % of the total sum in 2020.

If I remove accommodation...


...the 2020 sole parent receives less.

If I configure a slightly different family size...

...and again remove the accommodation aspect...


...the 2020 sole parent is receiving  just 1.6% less.

But what must also be taken into account  is the greater availability and uptake of second and third tier assistance in 2020 - Temporary Additional Support and Special Benefit receipt, and Special Needs Grants. I don't have sufficient data at hand to factor these in but know their inclusion would push today's income example over that of 1989.

The narrative that has grown up around the 'notorious' neoliberal benefit cuts driving NZ children into poverty is simply unfounded. All that leads to is wrong diagnosis and wrong treatment.

We don't need a Minister for Child Poverty.

What we need is a Minister for Child Prioritisation (and it pains me to call for any kind of Minister).

People need to hear a strong and unified message that parents must prioritise their children above all else.

If you don't like the message then don't assume the responsibility.


Sunday, October 11, 2020

"Greens inviting Inland Revenue to your funeral"

Over at the Daily Blog Chris Trotter has characterised opposition to the Green's wealth tax as "the terrible power of selfishness."

Yes, the Taxpayer's Union has sent a personalised letter to people who own properties worth more than  $1 million (according to Trotter) warning about the Greens proposed wealth tax.

We don't live in a $1m house BTW but received a copy. I read through ours with interest. Here's the excerpt that grabbed my attention:


Trotter is terrified that this awareness campaign from the Taxpayer's Union could kill the Greens vote. But, he says, if it looks "over the next few days" like suceeding, Jacinda could give Chloe the nod in Auckland Central, or even tell Labour supporters to Party Vote Green. 

Problem is she's already been hurrying  her supporters to the polls and there might not be much left to manipulate come official polling day.

2 workers for every 1 beneficiary


Roger Douglas writing at the NZCPR this week:

 For the next 40 years, the number of beneficiaries will grow rapidly, whilst the number of workers, in relative terms, will decline (from around 3 workers to every 1 beneficiary now, to around 1.66 workers to every beneficiary by 2060).

I think this may be a tad optimistic.

Broadly there are 1.2 million people on either a main benefit, student allowance or super (respectively 369,300 + 40,890 + 815,391.)

According to StatsNZ:

For the week ended 23 August 2020, the 34-day series shows there were 2.195 million paid jobs, compared with 2.200 million in the previous week.

2.2 workers to 1.2 beneficiaries.

More like 2:1

To use Douglas' terminology, 2 workers for every 1 beneficiary.

UPDATE

I raised this with Muriel Newman and she clarifies:

...I think it is a question of terminology.

Roger is calling superannuitants 'beneficiaries', so he is only talking about "the costs of delivering pensions and healthcare for the retired" - he's not including people on income support.

He sort of explains it is the first bit of the quote:

"Significantly, we have begun to enter a 30-40 year welfare maturity period, where the costs of delivering pensions and healthcare for the retired is going to rise dramatically, year on year. For the next 40 years, the number of beneficiaries will grow rapidly, whilst the number of workers, in relative terms, will decline (from around 3 workers to every 1 beneficiary now, to around 1.66 workers to every beneficiary by 2060)."

It would have been clearer if he had used the terminology we are used to:

"For the next 40 years, the number of the retired will grow rapidly, whilst the number of workers, in relative terms, will decline (from around 3 workers to every 1 pensioner now, to around 1.66 workers to every pensioner by 2060)."

I hope that clarifies the situation.

I misinterpreted his meaning because his two opening paragraphs used the phrases 'welfare benefits', 'welfare crisis' and 'welfare policy'.