Ministry releases bad-news research

The Ministry of Social Development has just released research into youth justice - offending and custody trends. It says,

Good progress on Youth Justice following research

Ministry Deputy Chief Executive, Child Youth and Family Ray Smith said good progress has been achieved in the youth justice sector since the research was undertaken and since the establishment last year of the cross government Steering Group for Young People in Cells.

“We have already seen a reduction in the average length of remands in Police custody. For the month of September 2006 the average length of stay in police cells for a young person was 2.5 days. This compares with 4.4 days in 2005.

Now lets look at the report;



The trendline (the rather faint upward line) is what matters. The report says, If the current trends in offending and sentencing continue without the strengthening of community alternatives to custody and sentencing, as well as further development of CYF residential capacity, it is likely the length of remands and use of Police custody will only continue to increase.

Despite the Ministry's "good progress" spin (ambulance at the bottom of the cliff stuff) the report is actually full of bad news.

For instance;

While there was growth in the young person population, overall offending rates remained static over the same period. In fact, when considered on a per 10,000 of population basis, the ratio of apprehensions to population decreased by over 11%.

However, there were significant increases in violent offending. Apprehensions for violent offending rose by 36.4% over the previous 8 years and charges for violent offending increased by 57.6% between 2000 and 2005. This suggests it is the ferocity, not the frequency of offending which is changing. Therefore, it is predictable such increases in serious offending will amplify the number of custodial remands and sentences.

And the conclusion to this comprehensive 43 page report says;

This report establishes New Zealand has experienced a swell in the youth population and a disproportionate increase in violent offending among young people. Parallel to this, there have been significant changes in the sentencing patterns for young offenders with, a decrease in the use of Supervision with Activity and an increase in the use of Supervision with Residence. Combined, these factors have placed considerable strain on the limited custodial placements provided by CYF.

Although the increase in the youth population is at its peak in 2006, its effects will be palpable until around the year 2030.

There is no indication the increases in serious and violent youth crime will slow, anecdotal evidence suggests the 2006 statistics also show the same trend.

Unless a number of measures are developed it appears the pressure on CYF Residences will continue to increase which will result in ongoing and increasing use of Police cells for young offenders who need to be kept in custody.