Chart of the day

Here's one OECD chart New Zealand is topping, Family Violence

 

Chart SF3.4.A Prevalence of partner physical or sexual assault, women and men, around 2005.

CPAG research inconclusive at best

New research from CPAG claims there is "no evidence of an association between benefit receipt and distinct substantiated rates of child abuse."  And later under Conclusion, "...benefit income does not appear to be related to rates of child abuse."

How did they arrive at this?

Here's a cut and paste of the entire relevant text and scan of their scatterplot:


3.5 Benefit uptake

Benefit data is held by the Ministry of Social Development. We have assumed WINZ offices cover broadly the same areas as CYF site offices as MSD appears to know what percent of the population is on a benefit (see for example Collins, 2013) so would use the same or similar population estimates they use for CYF purposes. Here, data for the four main income-tested benefits has been combined since not all the jobless go on an unemployment benefit nor is it only DPB recipients who care for children (similarly, not all DPB recipients care for children, although most do). Benefit figures are from June 2012 so are for a point in time only: the numbers can easily change if the dynamics of people moving on and off benefits changes. The percentage of beneficiaries in the population was plotted against the rate of substantiated distinct abuse cases in each site office. If there was a relationship we
would expect to see rates of substantiated abuse rise as the proportion of working-age beneficiaries rose. This relationship is statistically insignificant, with the R 2  value being 0.39. The values for each site office are in the Appendix at Table 6. 

Figure 5: Scatterplot showing rate of distinct substantiated cases of child abuse and proportion of income-tested beneficiaries in population for CYF site offices. R 2  = 0.39

 The site offices with rates above 2.5 include Taupo (2.76 but a below-average proportion of income-tested beneficiaries in the population); Clendon (2.96 and a slightly higher than average proportion of income-tested beneficiaries in the population); and Whakatane (3.5 and an above average 10.1% of the population being on an income-tested benefit) and Papakura (4.0 with the 10% of the population estimated to be on an income-tested benefit being slightly less than Whakatane). There are 8 site offices with a higher proportion of the population receiving an income-tested benefit that have below average rates of substantiated child abuse.

The weak relationship between benefit receipt and child abuse may be no more than a reflection of the impact of the low incomes of benefit recipients (Perry, 2007). The data here shows no evidence of an association between benefit receipt and distinct substantiated rates of child abuse.

I have one major problem with this chart. It uses benefit dependency rates across all benefits. Most people on a working age benefit are not caring for children (58% 2012). Most children dependent on a benefit rely on the DPB (78% 2012). What would the chart look like if the relevant population was plotted?

Remember that earlier Auckland University research found,

 "There are 10,300 children maltreated by age 5 and seen on a benefit by age 5, comprising 86% of all children with maltreatment findings by that age – suggesting that the majority of children  with maltreatment findings are on the benefit relatively early in their lives since we only lose 3% when we ignore children who arrive on the benefit after age 2."

This strongly suggests that most would be on the DPB. Consider this graph from the Children's Social Health Monitor:




Anyway CPAG took exception to the Auckland University in their first report saying,

"It suggests child maltreatment is a function of membership of particular social groups, something for which the evidence is very weak."

They footnote this claim with the following, "See Child Poverty Action Group technical paper (forthcoming)."

And here it is.

Whose research is more robust? The University of Auckland or the Child Poverty Action Group's?

CPAG report into child abuse disappoints

CPAG has been heralding the release of a new report into child abuse which analyses CYF data. It hasn't gone on-line yet but Stuff has a pre-report. There's nothing of great interest so far and their analysis about the types of abuse and why reports have risen are old hat.

Broken down into types of child abuse over the same time period, sexual abuse accounted for the smallest proportion, at 6.7% of cases.
Emotional abuse was the most common form, at 54.6% on average.
Sexual abuse and neglect was relatively constant during the period, but the number of emotional and physical abuse cases had risen.
CPAG said this could reflect an increase in the number of police and family violence referrals, or the impact of the Ministry of Social Development’s 'It’s not OK' campaign.

Anyone who takes an interest in this area is well acquainted with these 'findings'.

Update

Actually I have found something of interest but CPAG missed it.

According to their report, the following are the areas with the highest rates of child abuse. They don't surprise. None is south of Taupo:

TOP TEN HIGHEST RATES OF CHILD ABUSE
Papakura
Whakatane
Clendon
Taupo
Otahuhu
Manurewa
Rotorua
Westgate
Whangarei
Far North

Last week I blogged about children taken into state care and did express surprise that the numbers were so high in the Southern region.

Children in out of home placements, by region

Region	F2008	F2009	F2010	F2011	F2012	F2013 as at 31 Mar 2013
Northern Region	1,367	1,305	1,234	1,173	1,227	1,195
Midlands Region	816	869	876	744	749	792
Central Region	1,060	1,027	958	801	846	835
Southern Region	1,277	1,204	1,166	1,166	1,062	1,014
Adoptions / Others	2	3	4	1
National Total	4,522	4,408	4,238	3,885	3,884	3,836

Very broadly speaking, it looks like the highest rates of child abuse are in the north, but the highest rate of child removal into state care is in the south. Fascinating.

Perhaps the two things are connected. Where children are removed from risk, abuse rates are lower?

Welfare reform - the 1990s versus today

A column published in the NZCPD newsletter today speculates about the lack of public protest against National's current welfare reforms:

In the early 1990s the National government introduced welfare reforms that were met with enormous resistance and provoked a good deal of public sympathy for the plight of beneficiaries.  The reforms featured benefit cuts which reduced most incomes by around 10 percent, with some losing as much as 25 percent. These cuts affected hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries and their children directly, and others, like retailers and landlords, indirectly. While the government needed to both save money and increase the gap between benefit incomes and wages to incentivise greater productivity, unemployment was above ten percent.

More.

Extending the IWTC is not a cure for child poverty

In the interests of children the In Work Tax Credit should be retained as a work incentive. Even Labour believed that working parents offered the best way out of poverty for children, and that extends beyond just the monetary rewards of working. That's why they designed a tax credit system that made working pay more.

Ever since, the CPAG has tried to overturn it, arguing discrimination against children of beneficiaries.

Today the NZ Herald has revealed that 51 percent of people participating in an on-line poll agree with CPAG. At 750 it's not a large sample but nevertheless it is disappointing that so many people don't think through the issue.

New Zealand's 'child poverty' problem is largely a result of welfare dependency. More welfare won't fix it.

What has John Ansell got up his sleeve?

I don't know. But he's a clever, quirky man and I'll be watching tomorrow at 7.20am TV One.

At the protest today

Here's Lexie at parliament today. She appeared briefly on the TV3 news coverage. Good turn out I thought. Good on John Banks and Mojo Mathers who both spoke and promised to keep the pressure on. And especially well done Caroline Press for organising the event. Quite a daunting endeavour.

No-one responsible for drafting the bill or opposing the amendment appeared. Gutless. I noted a few Green flags flying despite their party actually enabling the passage of the bill. ACT was the only party that voted against the bill. For the life of me, I can't understand the regulation of synthetic cannabinoids while the natural version remains illegal.

Feminists trample on women's rights

Originally feminists fought for important rights, like universal franchise. Doubtless I'd have been amongst them. They fought for women's rights. But now, in some respects, they seem to fight against them. For instance the campaign against  sexualised images of women.


In the UK, the Co-op, "one of Britains' largest magazine retailers"  has agreed to only stock mags in bags. But it's not enough,

Sophie Bennet, spokeswoman for the Lose the Lad's Mags campaign by UK Feminista and Object said that the Co-op's move did not go far enough. "The more accurate term for these so-called "modesty bags" is "misogyny bags" because the issue for the thousands of people who have called on shops to lose the lads' mags is absolutely not about nudity. It's about sexism. And if a product is so degrading to women that it has to be covered up then the Co-operative should not be selling it.
"By stocking magazines like Nuts and Zoo, retailers like the Co-operative and Tesco are sending out the damaging message that it is normal and acceptable to treat women like dehumanised sex objects.

But if a female wants to act like a "sex object" and earn an income from it, what about her rights?

(Just discussing this with my 19 year-old son who says that these mags are, in fact  "empowering to women who use their natural assets to make shitloads of money and degrading to men who show how pathetic they are by buying them." Always nice to get a different perspective.)

Updating: "March against animal testing on party pills"

Reminder about tomorrow's protest in Wellington and other places. John Campbell just ran a good piece. It was sad to see John Banks speaking against this to an almost empty house. If you can make it, hope to see you there. For more details.

 

HUHA, Helping You Help Animals, is an organisation I admire and support for their work with homeless animals and philosophy of never euthanising simply because a home cannot immediately be found. I saw what they do first-hand when I got my Beagle from them.

They are organising a further protest against the testing of party pills on dogs on July 30, 12 noon. The Wellington protest will be at parliament but it looks like other protests will run elsewhere.

Nobody has to take a psychoactive drug. It's their choice and their risk.

Labour wants to tell us who we can and can't sell our property to

Labour has announced it will ban foreigners from buying houses.

What a racist, anti-global, anti-freedom joke. What a retrograde step for New Zealand's reputation as a desirable destination for immigrants.

And if I can't sell my property to the highest bidder, regardless of their skin colour or country of birth, that amounts to a confiscation of wealth.

It's a nasty small-minded policy that makes Labour look desperate. Shearer is under siege from his own party and consequently we're getting siege-mentality policies.

Local government taxing the bejesus out of us

Here's a number that doesn't get publicised often.

In the financial year ending June 2012 the total local government took in taxes was,

$4.653 billion

With a population of 4.471 that's  $1,041 per man, woman and child.

The bulk of the taxation is recurrent taxes on immovable property - rates.

A direct comparison is impossible due to record keeping differences and fifty years ago local government got a lot more revenue from rents on buildings, licences and public utilities but in rates alone, in 1952 it collected 14.5 million pounds on a population over just over 2 million. A ratio of around 7:1  compared to today's 1,000:1

Wow. WOW.

Who is this?

That was weird. I'd glanced at this morning's paper while making a cup of tea, and was fleetingly trying to figure out who the woman on the right is. She looked vaguely familiar and the person who sprung to mind was media trainer and TV producer, Janet Wilson. So I found a picture of Janet from a few years ago. By comparison, the woman on the right is similarly gingery, same nose, same eyebrow line, same complexion tone, the eyes starting to go downwards at the sides without a very broad smile, and overly made-up to compensate for age?

Perhaps not, but who does she look like?

On being a case manager

Unusually, I was reading the comments thread after a piece on Stuff about 35 WINZ roles going. Resentment against case managers led to some taking a celebratory position (even though the roles aren't case managers - most readers don't actually READ).

Anyway the following comment caught my eye:

The ignorance of some of these comments is astounding. I used to be a DPB case manager in Porirua with a caseload of 136 clients. Most were lovely people who were victims of circumstance, but some were nasty pieces of work. Threats of violence, nothing you did was enough for them because of their sense of entitlement. The fraudsters, those that chose benefits as a lifestyle. Yet you still bust a gut to help them within the bounds of legislation. Hard not to be pissed that some were making more than you on the benefit ($26,250 was my salary. Ludicrous).

Until you've been on the other side of the desk, don't make assumptions about the lack of empathy of your average case manager. They feel overworked, stressed, carry great responsibility and are bound by lots of red tape. Most are in the job to genuinely help people, but when you get crapped on repeatedly, it's hard not to become cynical. Best of luck to them. And some of you need to develop empathy of your own.

The comment appears genuine. The caseload ratio  and salary look credible. And contrary to what people believe about me, I'm sure that most people on the DPB are perfectly nice people. Most I've come across are. I still  hold fast to the idea nevertheless, that the DPB hasn't improved their lives. The benefit itself probably created the "circumstance" that resulted in their dependency.

Yet again I wonder at the size of the second group she (more likely than 'he') describes. I once put the question to a close relative who spent some years working for social welfare on the front-line. That was back in the late70s/early 80s and times have changed. But he estimated around one third to a half were people exploiting the system. A handful were downright dangerous to deal with.

But see the real problem revealed within the comment above. The very people who know that someone is 'misusing' welfare have to play along. They are bound.

Whereas, in the non-government sector, a volunteer agency, services can be withdrawn when the 'client' isn't 'coming to the party'. The managers of an agency I volunteered with eventually made that call on a couple of my cases, to my relief.

To a degree, the new welfare reforms are an attempt to give case managers that facility. To sort the wheat from the chaff and act accordingly. The threat of a benefit cut when people won't take a job or meet an obligation is not entirely new. Under Labour, sanctions were routinely used. But the range of obligations and persons they apply to is now much wider.

As in any organisation, some will abuse power. Let's hope the majority of case managers reflect the one quoted here who sounds like a reasonable, compassionate individual.

Babies put into state care

The headline on Stuff reads: Babies taken at birth from risky mothers.

Guaranteed to pique my interest.

Nearly 800 newborn babies were taken from their mothers and put into government care in the past five years, with one Waikato baby taken within hours of its birth. The 773 babies - all less than a month old - were taken due to "serious concerns" about their parents' ability to care for them.

773 babies over a 5 year period. Sounds a lot but it's only 3 a week. Out of 1,176 per week (2012).

The reporting doesn't say so but I am thinking some of these births will be to incarcerated females. While imprisoned mothers have the facility to keep and care for their newborns, some will still not be in a position to. Apparently, "The mothers and babies units are only available to women who meet security requirements."

Some of these newborns could be to mothers on methadone whose babies are removed to de-tox.

Some births will be to women with known serious mental health problems. 3 a week is not surprising.

Then, I'm looking to see if the reporter has broken down the figures annually to show any trend. No. Because if she had, more than likely the numbers are decreasing (if they reflect the below graph) - not good copy. Decreasing numbers may simply be a facet of decreasing births over the past six years.

I am left speculating on the difference between regions. The number for the Southern region seems high. Perhaps it reflects practice rather than the incidence of at-risk births.

Importing workers for jobs locals don't want

It's the perennial New Zealand story. Harvest time and no-one to pick the fruit. Thank God for the Vanuatuans - "Ni-Vanuatu" I have been advised.

A lack of seasonal staff is adding to the pressures Central Otago fruit growers face from the weather and also hampering industry growth.
Workers to harvest the area's main crops of cherries, apricots, apples and grapes were scarce this past season and that could be worse for the coming season, growers say.
If had not been able to access 50 Vanuatuans from Blenheim at the last minute through Seasonal Solutions, he would have been in dire straits, Central Otago Winegrowers Association president James Dicey said.

Presumably the workers are accommodated on site so travelling from anywhere in NZ would be possible.

There are currently 129,000 people on the new Job Seeker Support Benefit. But even in  Alexandra, Balclutha, Dunedin, Gore, Invercargill, Mosgiel, Oamaru, Queenstown, and Timaru there were over 4,000 people claiming an unemployment benefit in June (the number has probably been boosted to around 5-6,000 on JSS).

Any work is good work despite the Left's propensity for describing manual, casual jobs as "dead-end" . As well,

''To progress and go forward, we need an adequate casual staff base. We can't grow our permanent staff base without growing our business and to grow the business, we need more casual staff.
''The more we can harvest, the more we can grow and the more permanent jobs we can create.''

Anyway, good on the Ni-Vanuatu who haven't lost the will to be self-supporting.

Pre-ordering Justin Timberlake

Not me. I have no use for iTune vouchers. But my daughter does.

I won the Auckland University's Stats Chat competition (again:-))

Stat of the Week Winner: July 13 – 19 2013

Thank you for the fantastic nominations in last week’s competition.
We’re awarding the prize to Lindsay Mitchell, for her nomination of Stuff’s mixup in the reporting of a statistic:

25 in every 1000 ex-nuptial births occur to women aged between 15 and 19.
Because it is untrue. The claim is a misrepresentation of the following statistic:
25 in 1000 unmarried females aged 15-19 have an ex-nuptial birth (2011)

Sometimes rewording a statistic ends up with a totally different statistic. For example, the proportion of men who are left handed is not the same as the proportion of left handers who are men.

Hundreds line up for jobs - Labour's dream

Labour's main objection to the welfare reforms revolves around a lack of jobs. The government should be creating jobs they say (though stop short of describing how).

"Kiwis are lining up in their hundreds for a small number of jobs," Jacinda Ardern tells us to illustrate how willing beneficiaries are the victims of an economy not producing enough work for them.

So here's an interesting report that unusually points out that many of the hundreds lining up for jobs at a new Fonterra milk plant were already employed elsewhere.

Labour will like the headline:

Hundreds apply for 90 Fonterra jobs

But perhaps not the content:

"...unemployment did not appear to be the driving force for the huge response, with many of the 400 people who had turned out between 10am and noon on Saturday already in jobs, often skilled work."

Here's a thought on which to base a sound job creation policy. The tax taken to pay Ardern's salary could easily be better used to create two or three productive jobs in the private sector.

NZ Child Poverty rate bang on OECD median

The Child Poverty Action Group reacting to the latest Household Incomes Report:

"The government's being told there's no excuse for its failure to act on the high number of children living in poverty. The Child Poverty Action Group says latest figures show one quarter of all New Zealand children are living below the poverty line. Its convener, Associate Professor Mike O'Brien, says that hasn't changed from a year ago. He says that may not be surprising, as the government hasn't done anything to make any difference."We've seen enough material from a whole range of sources to know the extent of child poverty and I guess I would have expected there would have been really concerted effort from the government to respond to some of those reports and the data that we now have." Dr O'Brien says New Zealand's high rate of child poverty damages the country's international reputation."(My emphasis)

Here's a table from that report:

Table J.3

Child poverty rates (%) in the OECD-34, c 2010:

50% of median threshold (BHC)

Israel	29	France	11
Turkey	28	Luxembourg	11
Mexico	25	Ireland	10
Chile	24	Netherlands	10
Spain	21	United Kingdom	10
United States	21	Switzerland	10
Italy	18	Germany	9
Greece	18	Slovenia	9
Japan	16	Hungary	9
Portugal	16	Czech Republic	9
Australia	15	Korea	9
Canada	14	Sweden	8
Poland	14	Austria	8
Belgium	13	Iceland	7
Estonia	12	Norway	5
Slovak Republic	12	Finland	4
New Zealand	12	Denmark	4
OECD median	12

Additionally CPAG make no mention that child hardship actually fell between 2011/12:

Earthquake in Wellington

I haven't moved that fast in a while. What felt like a reasonably strong earthquake struck around 7:15am while I was having a bath! The imperative to get some clothes on outdid my tendency to freeze when the earth moves. Geonet is reporting it as severe though I can't see any media reports. But who's working at this time?

Chris Trotter goes too far

There have been a couple of on-line polls  this week showing most people support the welfare reforms. To my mind there are a number of reasons why and I'll post about that later. But the average person is comfortable with work expectations and social obligations of the kind they regularly meet themselves. And those beneficiaries who genuinely cannot support themselves will continue to receive the same assistance from the state.

So Chris Trotter's  diatribe this morning is a hysterical and offensive over-reaction. The targets of it should make an official complaint.

But think on this. The constant theme from the 'left' is the 'right' bashes beneficiaries. Listen, any beneficiary that read his column would feel wretched afterwards.

The National-led Government's dramatic reform of New Zealand's social welfare system marks an ominous turning point in the country's history. Never before has the state been willing to satisfy so completely the most punitive, the cruellest and nakedly sociopathic impulses of its wealthiest citizens.....
Before the rest of New Zealand could accept such callous brutalisation, however, the National-led Government had first to transform welfare beneficiaries into useless and undeserving sub-humans. Their poverty had to be presented as the consequence of their own lack of application and self-discipline.
They had to become idle ingrates: drug addicts and criminals, totally unworthy of decent people's respect or compassion.
And now, because it is not made up of monsters, and for the sake of their hapless children, the Government is insisting that these creatures somehow be "persuaded" to turn their lives around. This time, however, the persuasion is not going to involve the use of carrots. This time the ministry is going to use the stick.
And, just as they were in Germany 75 years ago, the doctors are being asked to help.
We must hope that Kiwi physicians turn out to be less enthusiastic social engineers.