Thursday, November 17, 2011

The Mexican stand-off that is Epsom

According to Stuff:

The ACT Party is facing an election wipeout – with a new poll showing Epsom voters have been turned off by last week's tea party.

A Fairfax Media-Research Media International mini-poll of 200 eligible Epsom voters showed National's Paul Goldsmith easily winning the seat on 45.5 per cent.

ACT candidate John Banks trailed on 29.1 per cent, while Labour's David Parker had 14.6 per cent. The snap poll, taken on Tuesday, showed last Friday's meeting with National leader John Key shifted support away from Mr Banks.

Almost 30 per cent said they were now less likely to vote for him. Just under 23 per cent said Mr Key's public endorsement made it more likely they would favour Mr Banks. About 43 per cent said it made no difference. However, the poll also showed almost 40 per cent were undecided over the blue-ribbon seat, suggesting voters were waiting to see if National needed ACT as a support partner.

And the rest of us potential ACT voters are waiting to see if you will put ACT back in. This is a classic Mexican stand off.

If John Banks can't win Epsom I am not wasting my vote and effectively giving the Left another tick. My voting priority is making sure Labour can't form a coalition with more seats than National.

But the results also tell us that John Banks was the wrong choice for Epsom and the wrong choice for ACT.


Eric Crampton said...

iPredict has them down to around the 57% mark - the likelihood of taking Epsom and the likelihood of returning to Parliament.

PM of NZ said...

Forget ACT, it is dead. You have 3x choices. More do nothing Nats, try the new Conservative kidz or don't vote allowing Liarbour a win by default.

Manolo said...

I agree 100%.

James said...

If Epsom Nats are really so stupid as to want Labour back in by not voting for Banks (as much as that idea sickens me)then they deserve the higher taxes and the shit the left will happily impose on them...and that would be justice.

Richard McGrath said...

@PM of NZ: There is a fourth choice, particularly for electorate voters in Wairarapa.

Anonymous said...

If Brash hadn't stuck his nose in I would be voting for Hide and Act would most likely have been back in the house.

Now, as a result, we have a situation in which Key could be in some difficulty.

I'll not vote for Banks. Let the chips fall where they may.