In the 2003 BEFU, Treasury predicted, based on 2003 actual figures, the uptake of Paid Parental Leave (a welfare benefit) would increase 27 percent by 2007. What actually happened? The 12,372 people receiving PPL in 2003 grew to 28,852 - or 133 percent - in 2007.
Lesson; If you throw free money at people and want to guess how many will hold their hands out, make your estimate high and then double it - at least.
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