Births outside of marriage (2)

As stated yesterday, 45 percent of births are now ex-nuptial. Part of the reason ex-nuptial births have risen so sharply is the rise in de facto relationships. A commentor asks, what is the percentage of children born outside a marriage or a committed non-marriage?

I'm not aware of any data that conclusively answers that question. But I'll have an unscientific go.

A NZ study looked at children born in 1993 who had been on a main benefit by age seven. There were 58,866 registered births that year. Sixty percent of the children born had contact with the benefit system by age 7. Of those, the study estimated 40.8 percent were included on a benefit at birth. That's 14,410.

By age two the percentage of all children born in 1993 that had been on a main benefit was 45 percent or 26,489. Sixty two percent of these children had a single care-giver. That's 16,423.

I would suggest that there were at least this number of children born outside of a marriage or committed de facto relationship (one that endures beyond 2-3 years) in 1993.

Children born in the same circumstances who didn't go on a benefit are ommitted. The number won't be very high and could be offset by those children in the statistics whose caregiver is on a widow's benefit.

So I estimate that at least 28 percent of children born in 1993 were born outside of a marriage or committed relationship.

Given DPB numbers now are higher and total births slightly lower I don't think my estimate will have decreased.