"Draconian" approach will have a cost

The clamp down on public gatherings for the purposes of entertainment is becoming more and more of a problem. Just last month I blogged about the heavily-policed fiasco that Martinborough food festival has become. The latest comes in the form of the Kurow races, an event that has probably been held for more than a century and I imagine is akin to Tauherenikau on News Years Day, a benign but happy family picnic occasion.

New alcohol rules imposed on the Kumara Nuggets race meeting on January 14 have resulted in a sting in the tail for punters.
The Kumara Racing Club has been required to have 22 private security guards on course, instead of five, and that has pushed up the entry fee from $10 to $15.
The club applied to the Westland District Council in early October for the liquor licence, only to be met with a barrage of new requirements from health authorities, which created a "a lot of uncertainty" around being able to run the meeting next month, committee member Les Guenole said today.
The club had previously been planning to have alcohol-free areas but was instead told to hire more security guards, and was prevented from being able to advertise the meeting as BYO...
In a statement, Westland Mayor Bruce Smith criticised the hoops the Kumara Racing Club had to go.
"Crown (Public) Health, council and the police all became involved and unrealistic restrictions were requested by these parties based on what they say is legislation," Mr Smith said...
It was a turnaround for an event which was described this year by the West Coast police in the local media as "being well run with very few problems".
Being now required to increase security numbers, along with ordinary police presence was "a draconian step," Mr Smith said.

And that is the kicker. In the usual lazy and unjust bureaucratic modus operandi, all events are being punished because some become unruly - or draw a few individuals who are anti-social.

This blanket approach will have a cost. Not just economic.

I heard a brief item on the news yesterday that police were upset with people setting up Facebook pages to alert drivers to the whereabouts of alcohol check points.

The police are losing public support. If they treat us en masse like bad guys then they can expect a reaction.

Earlier this year I heard a second hand report of a police man being very fair to a young individual who he could clearly see broke the law by making a forgetful error. The officer exercised his judgement and did not throw the book at him.

Events should be treated similarly. Authorities could and should exercise some reasoned judgement and discretion.

Inculcating students and selling books

Two professors wrote a book called Urban poverty, penal welfare and health inequalities.

Here is a brief precis. I note,

"New Zealand’s once-humanitarian welfare system genuinely supported those in need, says Professor Darrin Hodgetts."

The thrust of the book is that welfare has become punitive and demeans those who need it.

The welfare system the professor refers to can only be that established in the late 1930s for the very reason that there was little support for the needy prior.

From that time until the 1960-70s it was impossible to get a sickness or invalid benefit if you could not prove you were of good moral character and had not been the active cause of your own misfortune. Specifically, "That incapacity for work was not self—induced or in any way brought about with a view to qualifying for an invalid's benefit."

You could not get a deserted wife benefit if you didn't apply for maintenance from the father of your children. Unmarried mothers frequently felt they had little choice but to give up their child for adoption.

Is this the "once-humanitarian" welfare system referred to?

Or was it the period before the early nineties when sole parents piled onto welfare at an astounding rate. So astounding that after only 2 years of the DPB, a ministerial inquiry was being called.

 As a result a stand-down period was established and marriage guidance counselling made effectively compulsory. Solo mothers protested. Is that the "once-humanitarian welfare system" referred to?

It can't be the system post early-1990s because that's after the benefits cuts -  the neoliberal policies that the book attacks - along with the current welfare system, those who designed the policies and deliver the services.

I don't believe the "once-humanitarian welfare system" ever existed. But that's not the point. That's just my opinion.

The point is this new book is required reading in course work (along with a plethora of other leftist claptrap).

No doubt the publishers were also well aware of guaranteed sales when accepting the manuscript.

Quote of the Day

 “It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.” 

Thomas Sowell (apparently retiring from writing his syndicated column aged 86. His brief farewell is also well worth a read.)

Ethnic variation of people not in labour force

Just before Xmas Stats NZ released a report about people not in the labour force. The graph that caught my eye is below:

At  a glance you could be forgiven for thinking that Europeans are spending a lot of time playing around while Maori, Pacific and Asian people spend a lot of time studying.

The explanation for the divergence is provided:

This difference for the European ethnic group can be attributed to its different age structure when compared with the other ethnic groups. The median age of the European people not in the labour force was 66 years in the September 2016 quarter. In contrast, the median age was 30 years for Pacific peoples, 32 years for Māori, and 33 years for the Asian ethnic group. If we restrict the population to only look at those aged under 65 years, then study or training is the most-common main activity, and looking after a child is the second most-common main activity for all four of the ethnic groups looked at.

The median age of European people not in the labour force is double - or more than double - that of the next three largest ethnic groups.

Astonishing variation, but when you think about it, not that surprising. The European dominance of the baby boomer ranks and older accounts for this large anomaly.

Life's ups and downs (Updated)

It hasn't been the happiest few weeks. We watched our beloved beagle Lexie slowly deteriorate with a suspected brain tumour and eventually had to let her go. RIP in the garden.

So last night provided some much-needed fun and excitement when the first horse I have ever had a share in, Everything, lined up at Alexandra Park. Having its first start (third in its career) since I have been involved in the syndicate, see what happens:


Update: Today (28th) Everything had his first start on a grass track. Out from the widest front-line draw and then broke a boring pole and had it flapping down in front of his knees for most of the journey. But he was unperturbed and again, won effortlessly. Unfortunately the bookies had him pegged this time and he went out hot favourite. Too short for me and I only took him in a quaddie and trifectas. I thought after the race, damn, I didn't make any money outright. Then I remembered -  I now get a share of the stake winnings!

When public assistance creates poverty

A reader (?) sent a paper from Cato which essentially argues that beyond a certain level, public assistance creates poverty. That coincides with what I have long believed and tried to show. Behavioural responses that are self-destructive either individually and/or family-wise will undermine the worthy goals of alleviating need.

Here are a couple of the tables from the paper.

It's true

Reason.com has yet another example of how the US child care and protection authorities are horribly overreacting.

A mom, dad, and their preschooler went to Home Depot in Valley Stream, Long Island, last Saturday to get some Christmas lights. The boy fell asleep in the car, so the parents cracked open the sun roof and let him snooze while they ran their errand. A passerby saw the boy and called 911 to report a child in a car, "unconscious."
When the parents came out about 20 minutes later (the lights had been hard to find), they found a huge commotion at their car. Cops! Firemen! An ambulance! A fireman had smashed open their rear passenger window and was extricating their son as if the car was on fire.
Then, rather than seeing that the boy was startled but fine, the safety kabuki began.

I was just thinking, there is no way I would leave a child sleeping in  a car for twenty minutes when  I read the following:

"Now, maybe you wouldn't let your child wait in the car for 20 minutes. But chances are that your parents did that with you, because this was once universally acceptable."

It's true. As children we were always left in the car when my mother did the supermarket shopping. She would not have dreamed of dragging us around with her. And she was a teacher.

Another example of academic reconstructionism

The DomPost today ran a piece which is part of a series entitled, "Private Business, Public Failure: Inside Our Prisons".

Something caught my eye and got the BS detector buzzing:

Dear Editor,

'Incarceration Nation' (DomPost, December 12) featured Auckland University sociologist Dr Tracey McIntosh claiming that from the time of European settlement "...there was a desire to incarcerate significant numbers of our people", 'our people' being Maori.

This is simply not true. According to the Official New Zealand Yearbook of 1900, of the admissions to prison in 1898, Maori numbered only 134 of 1,724 - or 7.8 percent. That year more women than Maori were admitted to prison.

The significant growth in the Maori prison population share - 51 percent at September 2016 - came with urbanisation and welfarism. 

No wonder the PM has had enough

While the internet is a wonderful tool for increasing knowledge it is equally powerful for spreading lies. The World Socialist Website writes:

For working people, the legacy of the Key government has been eight years of austerity. Key has overseen thousands of job cuts and a decline in median incomes, almost destroyed the coal mining industry, increased the goods and services tax, cut taxes for the rich and slashed spending on healthcare and welfare services. An estimated one in four children is living in poverty and 41,000 people are homeless due to the soaring cost of housing. Large parts of the country have been de-industrialised and economically shattered. Suicides have reached record levels two years in a row.

Thousands of job cuts and thousands of jobs created. In 2008 2.188 million people were employed. In September 2016 there were 2.493. The unemployment rate is 4.9 percent. Prior to the GFC - not of Mr Key's personal making - unemployment was under 4%.  New Zealand ranks 10th in the OECD ahead of 24 other countries.

As for a "decline in median incomes", the Household Incomes Report says,

"....median household income continued the rising trend shown in the post-GFC recovery phase – on average this has been at 3% pa in real terms (ie 3% pa above CPI inflation)."

Spending on healthcare and welfare services has not been slashed. See 2016 Core Crown Expenses.

There are not one in four children living in poverty. Even using the highest threshold,

"....the AHC 60% anchored line measure, the poverty rate for children fell from its pre-recession rate of 24% to an average of 22% in 2014 and 2015"

Furthermore:

"....there is no evidence of any rising child poverty trend in recent years using the anchored line AHC or BHC measures.....the rate for more severe hardship in 2014 and 2015 (8%) is close to what it was before and during the GFC with those in deeper hardship not greatly impacted by either the downturn or the recovery."

The 41,000 people homeless comes from the broadened definition. RNZ reports more accurately:

"...more than 41,000 people were staying in severely crowded houses with family or friends, or in boarding houses, camping grounds, in cars or on the street."

If 41,000 people were strictly homeless why are only 4,600 currently on the housing register?

And finally, the number of suicides  is reasonably steady.

Neither were the last two years record levels:

It's all lies. But I've heard plenty of ignorant people venting this sort of rubbish over the past two days. No wonder the PM has had enough.

The correlation between welfare dependence and child abuse

From last week's report, Child Abuse and Family Structure: What is the evidence telling us?

"For those children whose caregiver had spent ‘more than 80%’ of their time on a benefit in the last five years, 11.3% would have a finding of abuse. Those who had ‘no time’ on benefit had an abuse finding of just 0.3%. The likelihood of abuse for the first group was almost 38 times greater than for those with no benefit history."

Child abuse and family structure

Of those children born in 2010 who'd been abused or neglected by age two, 76 percent were born into a single-parent setting. This startling fact comes from government research which received little or no publicity. Why?

Bureaucratic discomfort over the increasing evidence of poorer outcomes for children of single parent, welfare-dependent parents is one reason. A 2006 Ministry of Social Development paper claimed, for example, "It would be inappropriate ... to suggest the risk of fatal child maltreatment is higher on the basis of being a child of a sole parent or a child having a low birth weight."

Yet further government data shows  'step-fathers' - or partners of single parents - are strongly over-represented in child deaths from maltreatment.

Only relatively recently has cross-departmental data been used to analyse which children are at highest risk of maltreatment. Other countries have been cross-analysing their care and protection data for many years revealing the same relationship between the increased risk of child abuse and single/non-biological cohabiting families.

In New Zealand, the over-representation of Maori and Pacific children in maltreatment statistics dates back to the first nationwide survey conducted in 1967. Common reasons given for this over-representation are poverty, unemployment and, in the case of Maori, the effects of colonisation.

Evidence suggests however that the greater occurrence of single parent families - stressed mothers and serial changes of non-related male caregivers - is behind these elevated child abuse statistics. Conversely, Asian children have the lowest rate of abuse and the lowest rate of one parent families.

Of the 2010 cohort referred to earlier, the children whose parent or caregiver had spent more than 80% of the last five years on welfare were 38 times more likely to be abused or neglected by age two than those whose parent(s) had spent no time on welfare. The children born into a single parent setting (based on birth registration or benefit data) were 9 times more likely to suffer maltreatment than those children born into two parent families. Maori children with two parents who did not rely on welfare had very low rates of abuse similar to those of non-Maori children in the same circumstances.

In 1967, when marriage was almost universal among parents and sole-parent welfare dependence virtually non-existent, the rate of physical child abuse was 2.5 substantiated cases per 10,000 children. By 2014 that rate had risen to 29 cases per 10,000. This more than ten-fold increase has been accompanied by a decline in marriage and committed two parent families.

It is likely to be argued that ‘correlation does not equal causation’. While true to a certain extent, the correlations between child abuse and family structure, and child abuse and benefit-dependence, are stronger than the most commonly advanced correlative factor - poverty.  When over three quarters of substantiated abuse findings by age two are from single-parent, benefit-dependent families, the coincidence is too large to dismiss.

It might also be argued the increase resulted from a lower tolerance to child abuse due to changed societal values, public awareness campaigns, and subsequently, more reporting. But using a more objective measure - assault-related hospitalisations of children - the rate is still  four-fold that of the 1960s.

Another important factor ignored for too long: biological fathers generally provide a protective factor against child maltreatment. Furthermore, the chances of the father - and his extended family - remaining in the child's life are significantly increased when the parents are married.

In discussions about the unacceptable level of child abuse and neglect in New Zealand, the breakdown of the nuclear family is the elephant in the room that many would prefer to ignore. Yet to do so is an abrogation of our collective responsibility to children. The committed two parent family provides the safest environment for children. The traditional family model is still fit for purpose. It is just unfashionable, and in some minds, unforgivable to say so.

Child Abuse and Family Structure: What is the evidence telling us? follows on from Child Poverty and Family Structure: What is the evidence telling us? published in May 2016. It is the second report written for Family First by social researcher and commentator Lindsay Mitchell.

Recommended reading

George Smith is a great writer because he makes philosophical ideas accessible. Here he quotes Ayn Rand (who often did go over my head) extensively in her predictions about where collectivism would take America. Even with my short attention span I got through through it and relished some of the passages.

The placement of socialism and fascism at opposite ends of a political spectrum serves a nefarious purpose, according to Rand. It serves to buttress the case that we must avoid “extremism” and choose the sensible middle course of a “mixed economy.” Quoting from “‘Extremism,’ Or The Art of Smearing” (CUI, Chapter 17):

"If it were true that dictatorship is inevitable and that fascism and communism are the two “extremes” at the opposite ends of our course, then what is the safest place to choose? Why, the middle of the road. The safely undefined, indeterminate, mixed-economy, “moderate” middle—with a “moderate” amount of government favors and special privileges to the rich and a “moderate” amount of government handouts to the poor—with a “moderate” respect for rights and a “moderate” degree of brute force—with a “moderate” amount of freedom and a “moderate” amount of slavery—with a “moderate” degree of justice and a “moderate” degree of injustice—with a “moderate” amount of security and a “moderate” amount of terror—and with a moderate degree of tolerance for all, except those “extremists” who uphold principles, consistency, objectivity, morality and who refuse to compromise."

Briefly...

Trump has appointed a charter school advocate as Secretary of Education. She says the status quo in the US education system is "unacceptable." Teacher's unions are apparently not pleased.

Jolly good.

Those dirty filthy one-percenters

Here's an arresting snippet sent to me from the Economist:

Global wealth distribution: Where you fit in
If you had only $2,220 to your name, you might not think yourself terribly fortunate. But you would be wealthier than half the world’s population. With $71,560 or more, you’d be in the top tenth. If you were lucky enough to own over $744,400, as 18m Americans do, you are a member of the global 1% that voters everywhere are rebelling against. Some of those railing against the global elite probably do not know they belong to it

Nanny State marching on

I've blogged about this relentless regression only recently.

In this morning's DomPost, opposite the daily editorial, Mark Reason describes his response to the heavy police presence at Toast Martinborough:

The trouble began in Vynfields. The punters didn't cause the trouble, not a flicker of it, we were just smiling at a world that smiled back.
But then a policeman and two policewomen came in. They inserted themselves into the small dancing crowd in front of the stage. They were literally looking for trouble. It was so sinister, I decided to keep an eye on them.

More 

The arbitrary nature of state calls

According to MSD, regarding quake affected areas:

The employment subsidy will be available for businesses in Kaikoura, Cheviot, Waiau, Rotherham, Mt Lyford and Ward who face a dramatic drop in their turnover as a direct result of the earthquakes and the closure of State Highway One.
It will be paid to businesses with fewer than 20 employees where closure of the state highway and damage to the coastal environment means they cannot operate and they cannot pay staff wages.

Naturally outsiders sympathize with those economically affected by the quake.

But the collective and compulsory way we organise and protect ourselves means that arbitrary lines will be drawn by bureaucrats who are necessarily disconnected. Kaikoura business Whale Watch, for example, won't qualify. The assumption that they are bigger, stronger and more resilient  ignores that they have greater outgoings.

I don't know if there is a better way.

But  if people had voluntary and enhanced choice about protecting themselves and their businesses, outcomes may be less fickle and  jarring.

With 'friends' like these...

This is cruel. But it more than amply highlights that perverse phenomenon whereby people politically aligned can be each other's harshest critics.

The World Socialist Website attacks the record of Helen Kelly:

Kelly’s death at the age of 52 was a personal tragedy, but this fact must not be allowed to obscure an objective appraisal of her record. For more than a year, her protracted struggle with lung cancer was exploited in the media, with countless interviews and articles portraying Kelly as a champion for workers’ rights and as a national icon. In fact, Kelly is being glorified because she was a highly-valued servant of the ruling elite. She led the CTU as it collaborated with major attacks on the jobs and living standards of the working class.

The reality about charter schools

From an evidence based source, none other than Te Ururoa Flavell, Maori party leader:

The Maori Party is putting the hard word on Labour's Maori MPs to oppose one of their own Member's Bill's that abolishes charter schools.
The Bill, belonging to Labour MP Chris Hipkins is due to be debated in Parliament later today.
Maori Party Co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell said Labour's Maori MPs know in their heart of hearts, because they have family members actively involved in charter schools, that the schools are achieving results upwards of 10, 20, and 30 percent of the national average, particularly those in Te Tai Tokerau.

More 

New York Times free for a few days

Normally behind a paywall the New York Times is free for a "few days".

Can't have it both ways

A campaign has been launched by the Lung Foundation to reduce the stigma of lung cancer.

The aim is to reduce stigma surrounding the disease and advocate for better treatments, government funding and symptom awareness.

While all the time other government-funded agencies are hell-bent on demonising smokers at least partially because of the burden they impose on the health system.

Yes, I am aware that tobacco tax already covers smoker's health costs (who apparently make up 80 percent of lung cancer patients) but you can't have it both ways.

An activity cannot be stigmatised and the outcome de-stigmatised.