Somebody is telling porkies

Dr Cullen said there was nothing in the Australian tax cut package for those earning under $30,000 a year and just $20 a week for those earning up to $74,000 a year, but $128 a week for those on $200,000 a year.

Costello said a major change to benefit low-paid workers was an increase of the tax-free threshold from 11,000 dollars to 14,000 dollars from July 1, 2008 and 16,000 dollars from 2010.

I don't think it is Costello telling blatant fibs.

Franks on Tame Iti

Stephen Franks describes his last meeting with Tame Iti. Slightly chilly might be an understatement.

Wrong focus

Ron Mark is upset that 8.4 percent of our prison population are non-New Zealanders.

That's pretty good considering 23 percent of people normally residing in New Zealand were born overseas.

Now if we could get Maori under-represented to the same degree, 7% instead of 50%, the prison population would drop to 3,779 rather than 6,630

Thought about the would-be 'terrorists'

Just thinking about this 'group' of so-called would-be terrorists, remember Upper Hutt lawyer, John Burrett, and his nephew, who went to jail for intent to kidnap.

Burrett and Payne claimed the kidnap plot was just a game of role playing and they never intended to abduct anyone.

Are these guys for real? We may never know.

"Legalise all drugs, top British police officer says"

Top British cop calls for the legalization of all drugs.

Seems to me that Britain is leading the gathering momentum although there is support from some in the US. Which restores some of my faith in the intellectual capacity of Britons.

Remember - making an activity legal does not sanction or approve it. It simply allows any resulting problem to be handled differently.

Stats show DPB a way of life

Media Release

STATS SHOW DPB A WAY OF LIFE
Monday, October 15, 2007

Forty five percent of people on the DPB have been on it at least once before, a fifth have been on it twice before, nearly 5,000 have been on it three times before and a further 4,000 had been on it four or more times.

According to Lindsay Mitchell, welfare commentator, "These recent figures show that a large minority of single parents are cycling on and off the benefit. At the other extreme are those who get onto the DPB and stay there long-term, especially those who start young. The Ministry of Social Development's computer system does not provide pre-1993 information but available figures show a minimum of 40 percent first started on welfare under the age of twenty."

"Additionally nearly forty five percent have been on this benefit or another continuously for 4 or more years, 17 percent for ten or more years."

Mitchell says that the official description of the DPB's original intention was, 'temporary financial support for deserted or battered wives and unmarried mothers without partners.'

"Clearly the usage of this benefit has far exceeded expectations often, sadly, to the disadvantage of children who lead impoverished, insecure and transient lives as a consequence."

Smoke and mirrors

The table below shows the movement off the DPB in terms of how many were already partially employed. This confirms what I have been saying about the drop in DPB numbers being, in part, a smoke and mirrors exercise. Fifty eight percent of those moving off DPB were already 'attached' to the workplace.

The reports states, "The fall in numbers was most rapid for those with other income in excess of $300 per week (with a 25% fall) or between $180 and $300 per week (with a 12% fall). These groups would have been the most readily able to shift off benefit and take up the In-Work Tax Credit. Some would have already have been working sufficient hours (20 hours a week) to qualify."

Now you could respond that 42% with 'no other income' also left the DPB. Yes. But a good number move to other benefits, change their marital status, go onto super, go to prison, etc. This group is less likely to have entered the workplace.




By the way, see if you can spot the error in this table.

"Beaten women more likely to talk in Nelson"

The Press has an answer.

"Family violence risk for those on benefits"

The Nelson Mail has covered the high incidence of violence disclosures in their region. My view wasn't included but, as they say, 'thems the breaks'. At least the link between welfare and domestic violence gets more exposure.

Are disclosures of violence genuine?

Having reflected on yesterday's release about the high number of family violence disclosures in Nelson I have another thought.

Briefly, in 1996 the Court of Appeal ruled that women in a relationship where violence was present were not in a relationship that met the criteria of being "in the nature of a marriage" and could therefore continue to receive a benefit as a sole parent.

It is possible that women may disclose violence to avoid losing her benefit or being prosecuted for fraud.

After the court made this ruling 2,865 women had their debts disestablished and thousands of dollars were refunded.

I believed that the judge who made the ruling was opening a can of worms. Essentially we went from paying women to escape violence to paying them to live with it, or say they are living with it.

So we might be looking at a two-pronged problem. Yes there is rising violence but there may also be women who are falsely disclosing violence. (With our very broad definition of domestic violence it would be difficult to establish any disclosure was 'false' however.) Nelson may have a particularly active benefit control unit. It is a well known destination for welfare/alternative life-stylers.

If this effect from the ruling is happening I would expect it to show in an area where there is strong advocacy for beneficiaries. I don't know about Nelson but the Bay of Plenty, second highest for violence disclosures, has one such Rotorua-based group which forced Work and Income to recognise split-custody DPB through court action.

In my experience there are genuine cases and there are people who routinely 'lie' to Work and Income. That's just the way it is.

Nelson top region for violence disclosure

Media Release
NELSON TOP REGION FOR VIOLENCE DISCLOSURE
Thursday, October 11, 2007

In the financial year to June 2007 3,817 Work and Income clients disclosed family violence to their case managers.

"The average number of family violence disclosures was 1.5 per 100 beneficiaries," according to welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell.

"Surprisingly this number almost triples to 4.4 in the Nelson region. The number is also significantly larger than the next highest region, Bay of Plenty, at 2.9 disclosures."

"Put another way while the Nelson region is home to less than 4 percent of working age beneficiaries it accounts for over 11 percent of family violence disclosures. "

"Earlier this week the Christchurch Press reported that the Nelson Women's Refuge was turning people away. Their manager, Cindy Kawana claimed the violence is getting worse and said, 'There would currently be six women who we wonder if they will die next time.' "

"There is every likelihood these women are also known to Work and Income who have admitted that there is a significant overlap between their clientèle and that of CYFs. "

"The DPB was historically about enabling women to escape violence yet we appear to have more family violence then ever before. The reality is a steady and secure benefit often makes a single mother attractive to potentially dangerous males; those who would rather spend their own income on drugs and alcohol."

ACC to benefit

A reader expressed an interest in how many people moved from ACC to a benefit. Here is a breakdown. In the year to August 2005 956 people moved from ACC to a benefit. Although the figures below only go to 2005 I have seen figures for the invalid's benefit up to 2007 which confirm the overall downward trend.

National MP - a foolish woman

Jacqui Dean's bid to have party pills banned looks more and more ridiculous. You know something has to be off the scale when Sue Kedgeley can recognise 'inconsistency'.

Now we have the danger of toddlers taking party pills introduced into the argument. Anybody with an ounce of nous knows some toddlers will put anything resembling a sweet or a sweet drink in their mouths. And they do. What is particularly unique about party pills?

There have been no deaths of children (or adults for that matter) due to ingestion of BZP.

There have been deaths of children who have taken their parent's take-home methadone - not here but in Scotland. Ban methadone. That's the answer.

Oh look. Better ban vitamin tablets while we are at it; The amount of iron contained in children's and adult vitamins can be enough to kill a child when taken in excessive amounts. In 1997, the FDA implemented rules that require unit-dose packaging for iron-containing products with 30 milligrams or more of iron per dosage unit. For a small child, as little as 600 milligrams of iron can be fatal.

Then we should move on to anti-depressants and anti-hypertensive medications; Tofranil [imipramine], an antidepressant drug also used for childhood bedwetting, and Catapres [clonidine], a high blood pressure medicine, can be very hazardous because it takes very little to produce life-threatening problems in children. One tablet may do it.

Next ban turps, lighter fluid, bleach....Children have died after swallowing such everyday substances as charcoal, lighter fluid, paint thinner and remover, antifreeze, turpentine and pesticides.

I need not go on.

The only ban that would really make a difference is a ban on stupidity.

Sticking it to the poor

Classically Liberal blogs on which party is sticking it to the poor.

The surplus

...released today $8,663,000,000

or $3,079 per working-age New Zealander.



(Left click on image to enlarge)

Out of interest does anybody know exactly what Core Government Services covers? Huge increase there.

Welfare spending - up again

The cost of transfer payments according to the just released Government Financial Statements. The first column is 2007 actual and the second column is 2006. The numbers speak for themselves. All up another 8.6 percent increase in spending.

New Milestone Reached

Media Release

NEW MILESTONE IN INCAPACITY BENEFITS REACHED
Wednesday, 10 October, 2007

According to figures released by National MP, Judith Collins, August 2007 has seen the number of people on Invalid and Sickness benefits reach a new milestone.

Welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell says that the total number of Invalid and Sickness beneficiaries has grown 56 percent in the last ten years. "To put this into perspective the working-age population (15-64) has grown by only 14 percent over the same period."

"Despite programmes to address the problems that are preventing beneficiaries from returning to work the government seems incapable of curbing the growth, much of which is coming from increases in psychological and psychiatric conditions, migration from other benefits, longer stays and easy eligibility."

"While the public is happy to support genuine cases it is far less clear whether they are happy to support people whose incapacity to work is self-induced or who are simply refusing to face up to their problems due to the availability of welfare."

"Instead of applying some rigorous gate-keeping the government has now changed the rules to allow family GPs to certify or re-certify people eligible for these benefits. Nothing they are currently doing would indicate we can expect a drop in the numbers. In fact Treasury predicts a 21 percent increase in expenditure on these benefits over the next 4 years. "

Interview

Larry Williams is talking to me about the press release below at 4.10 pm at NewstalkZB.

Dubious claims do cause no favours

A woman has established an outfit she calls Candor Trust and is running a campaign against drugged driving and in particular, driving by methadone patients. Obviously I have no problem with this. But I wish she would substantiate her claims. A press release from yesterday is quite typical;

A woman has appeared in Court on drug driving charges today in relation to incidents of dangerous driving in the Bay of Plenty. The methadone patient drove dangerously after sleeping in the car at a service station, with children aboard and other motorists had to evade.

Candor Trust says this scenario is quite common as shown by the ESR drug driving study results which show about a dozen dead methadone drivers over the last 2 years.

Using the formula applied to alcohol harm it can be safely assumed methadone drivers were also implicated in a similar number of innocents deaths (on the road).

This is a grossly disproportionate level of road trauma in relation to the actual numbers of methadone patients. It constitutes involvement in 10% of the road toll by under 1% of the population, and double the involvement of untreated heroin addicts.

OK. That's 6 dead methadone drivers a year and an assumption of 6 associated deaths of 'innocent' people. The yearly road toll to October 9, 2007 is 399. How do 12 deaths become 10 percent?

Go the website and read such claims as;

About 1 in 50 Kiwis now die due to a crash - and over 1/2 the deaths are due to intoxicated drivers.

According to the LTSA, in 2005 29 percent of fatal crashes had driver alcohol as a factor. Again a significant difference between 29 percent and over 50 percent.

I reiterate I have no problem with people campaigning against problems but this sort of dubious information does her cause, and in a broader sense the internet, no favours.

Mike Moore's prediction

Undeterred, and why should he be, Mike Moore is off again making predictions and handing out advice. In the Features page of today's Dominion Post he calls next year's election result. It will be a, "red, green, brown and grey coalition, grey being UnitedFuture's decisive colour. Labour's secret weapon as always is the National Party's arrogance and sense of entitlement."

(Which prompted me to speculate that National want to give close consideration to what happened to the All Blacks on Sunday.)

Then he goes off on a tangent about last week's Te Puni Kokiri report, Maori in Australia, (over 100,000 of them) which I briefly blogged about. After a tirade against Willie Jackson, that Marxist media magnate from Mangere he concludes;

"A serious opposition party preparing for government would get this report to a select committee and do the hard policy yards."

Actually a serious incumbent government would be having a decent look at the report's findings and asking themselves what they are doing wrong. Most of the 'desertion' has happened under Labour. When asked, which year did you arrive in Australia to live, 2000 was the highest year ever, followed by 2004 and then 1999.

If Moore is right about his fourth Labour government we can expect to continue to lose what he calls the ambitious people.