Sunday, November 28, 2021

Lazy thinking

Regarding National's leadership crisis, Tracy Watkins extensively quotes a "frustrated former MP" presumably National.

“Most of Act’s vote is National, if they get their s....t together, it'll go back to National. And as long as (Act) are sitting at about 10%, that's actually good for National, it gets them across the line. So, ignore them.”

This assumes the voting bloc is static which it certainly isn't. But it is characteristic lazy thinking from a conceited Nat. 

The voting bloc is all the time refreshing with new voters via demographics and, to a lesser extent, immigration. Every election around 100,000 of the most reliable voters disappear and around 180,000 potential voters arrive. By my observation  ACT events are well-attended by the young. They may have only ever voted ACT.

There are oldies like me who went from Labour to ACT and never changed back, and the 'blue rinse' brigade are falling off their perches.

There are immigrants from countries which have drilled into them a true understanding of democracy and appreciation of free markets. ACT actually knows what it stands for; National doesn't.

But most importantly, in an undeniable and unavoidable age of personality politics  ACT has never had such a young, engaged, and even charismatic leader whose keen nose for publicity is balanced with judgement and conviction. He also has a sense of humour.

So it is lazy to just assume if National picks the 'right' leader ACT's polling will plummet.

Those desperate for a change of government will get it voting either National or ACT, but given the worsening economic and social situation in New Zealand, they may want an insurance policy for real change and opt for ACT.


homepaddock said...

There’s no gain for votes swapped between National and Act. The gain will be in regaining the swinging voters from the left to the right.

pdm said...

It is the bloc of National and ACT together that really counts Lindsay - switching voters from one party to the other does not help that.

At Kiwiblog ths morning I suggested to Rodney Hyde he should make himself available for ACT again and bring Stephen Franks along with him to grow the parliamentary experience in the caucus - or are the scars to deep.

Anonymous said...

The other battleground is for that are disillusioned with ALL parties and will either not vote or will vote for a party they know will not get in.

pdm said...

I have had a further thought - what about M=the Maori Voters who support Labour because of the (so called) Maori Caucus.

Will they stay or will they switch to the Maori Party as they did a few elections ago. Hard to see many/if any going to National or ACT that are not there already.