National only needs 4 Maori Party MPs to pass the Marine and Coastal Area Bill. Which has left me wondering why it is conceding ACT's amendment. There was a thread at Kiwiblog about this a couple of days back, with contributions from Rodney Hide clarifying ACT's position but I am still unconvinced about motives on either side. That ACT aren't simply being populist and that the Maori Party don't want more than they are letting on.
Now Turia is starting to hint at pulling their support.
Even if my limited capacity to grasp the legal nuances involved leaves me frustrated, watching this political stand-off develop is fascinating.
Presently National needs either ACT or the Maori Party to govern. But only for a few more months.
One of those parties is looking rather precarious. ACT is in danger of losing parliamentary representation next year. The Maori Party will almost certainly bring at least the same number of seats. Who is Key going to placate?
So naturally ACT needs to rouse public opposition to such a degree that Key daren't concede to the Maori Party demands which, all the while, Hone Harawira, now calling Hide "a little fat redneck", is furiously lobbying to ramp up.
But if National just pull the plug on the bill, do they pull the plug on post election support from the Maori Party? Tariana Turia has walked away from a major party before over the very same issue. They won't want to get to the end of this innings with no progress on the very issue the party was formed to resolve.
Perhaps Key could rethink his position on the Urewera demands. Would that be enough to keep the Maori Party on board? That would seriously endanger core National support but might bolster ACT (or NZ First). Or perhaps he could pull the plug on it, make more noise about the shortcomings of MMP, major parties being held to ransom by minor parties, the old ' tale wagging the dog' catchcry thereby priming people to vote in a FPP manner allowing National to go it alone.
Whatever develops, ACT is fighting for its life and the showdown is set to escalate.
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4 comments:
"...naturally ACT needs to rouse public opposition to such a degree that Key daren't concede..." Lindsay, it's not like Key hasn't gleefully ignored public opinion before (88% IIRC).
One thing's for sure. This issue has dropped from the sky as mana from heaven for ACT and they need to grasp it, run with it and get as much traction as they can from it, or they are gone at the next election. The Coastal Coalition should be about their best friend at this point, with Hone a close second. Mainstream (read those who are not Maori terrorists) hate him and what he represents with such a passion, if ACT doesn't get a significant bump in the polls by taking him on over this, then they pretty much don't deserve to be in the Parliament.
The National Party deal with Maori is odious, so if ACT (backed, weirdly, by the Apartheid Party) can kill the legislation, there will be an even greater benefit.
If ACT make this part of a multi pronged effort along with say ETS repeal ,Euthanasia referendum,Smacking law repeal referendum,Lower tax....then I think they have something for everyone.
Maori Party don't want more than they are letting on.
The Maori Party want the lot: foreshore, seabed, and every other square centimetre of land in Aotearoa to be returned to Tangata Whenua in perpetuity - and all non Tangata Whenua to leave - or at least to have no rights whasoever other than those granted by the Tangata Whenua as they may choose from time to time. It's in their constitution: why would anyone except anything else?
The question is: what will the Maori Party think best serves their interests at the coming election (less than 9 months away) that will best serve their goal? As will National.
Frankly, the short-term aim of National, ACT, and the Maori Party is to stick it to Labour. Either most likely outcomees now - the bill either failing, or passing with National+Labour support -helps everyone except Labour
I don't believe Key can be trusted on this issue. Finlayson, his minister, has been evasive and avoided a clear yes or no answer to the "access fee" question.
The continuation of deal with the racist Maori Party is more important to Key and his minions, than the wishes of New Zealanders.
Credit to ACT for seeking clarification. It's now a matter of following it up.
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