Because I don't really care whether National or Labour win the next election - they are both as bad as each other - I think I can be reasonably dispassionate about who I think will win.
National. But not because of any policy or vision they are promoting. Typically they will win because people are sick of Labour. Then we will go through the whole drawn out charade again - two or three terms of National, failed policies, scandals, growing disenchantment and dissension, etc and we'll go back to an appealingly fresh-looking Labour.
This is as predictable as the next case of child abuse. And almost as depressing. Why would anything change when the vast majority of people still believe governments are the answer to most perceived problems?
If you don't believe me put aside a morning to read newspapers from 20, 30, 40 years ago. In those areas that most affect most people - health, welfare, education - the same problems recur ad nauseam. Waiting lists and doctor shortages, illiteracy, truancy and teacher dissatisfaction, 
wrangling over super - how to fund it, who should get it and how much? - working-age welfare - why are there so many beneficiaries in a developed country replete with opportunity? - relative poverty, race issues, drug crime, gangs, obesity - yes, obesity was a public health fixation even in the sixties and seventies (Headlines from 1973).Still, I suppose it is healthy to keep on imagining that a new government will deliver a shiny new world. Otherwise everyone would be gloomy as Eyeore. Or me :-))
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