From the SST,
New research out of last year's census shows that less educated women are the powerhouse behind the country's birth rate. "They are the anchor of our fertility rate at the moment," said Statistics New Zealand principal demographer Mansoor Khawaja.
No surprises there. It has probably been the case for some time. Maori and Pacific females have higher fertility rates but are generally less well-educated.
I thought I'd have a look at the fertility rate of those on the DPB (allowing that for many this is a temporary situation and their children were born before they became dependent on a benefit.)
The most recent stats I can use are 2000 because typically the Ministry has changed (reduced) the available information in it's annual statistics report.
The average fertility rate is 1.79
Just under half of recipients only had one child.
But the other half with two or more children had a fertility rate of 2.54
Almost certainly (but I don't have the information to prove it) those who stay longest on the DPB have the highest fertility rates.
Looked at another way, right now just over half of DPB recipients are Maori or Pacific Island despite representing 21-22 percent of the general population. With their average fertility rates higher anyway (2.9 PI and 2.6 Maori in 2004) it is a fact that DPB is contributing to the problem of "less educated women [being] the powerhouse behind the country's birth rate."
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You can almost see it coming: Dr. Flynn's findings will be labelled "racist" by the do-gooders and tantamount to promotion of eugenics ala 1930's Germany.
However, the facts are there and cannot be denied. Call me a curmudgeon, if you wish, but the inevitable dumbing-down of the population is a matter of time. It's happening right now and its pace can0 only accelerate with the next generation.
The average fertility rate is 1.79
Just under half of recipients only had one child.
But the other half with two or more children had a fertility rate of 2.54
Almost certainly (but I don't have the information to prove it) those who stay longest on the DPB have the highest fertility rates.
Thats a nonsensical statement Lindsay.
Of course there are a lot of
DPBs with one child you have to start somewhere.
Its the lifetime fertility rate that counts, not a snapshot taken at 16, 17 or whenever you have your first child.
And the real demographic problem is that New Zealand women are not having enough children, fullstop.
Still someone will inherit the earth but I doubt it will be white middle class liberals somehow.
Andrei, Yes. I should have properly described the figure as the number of children recipients have at a given point in time. I would need to work out age-specific fertility rates to make a direct comparison to the non-dpb population. Age specific fertility rates are as useful as age-specific abortion rates which you sometimes allude to. It isn't just lifetime fertility that counts.
Also Andrei the article refers to the general fertility rate (The number of live births per 1,000 estimated mean number of women aged 15–49 years). You are talking about the cohort fertility rate. Thanks for prompting me to clarify this.
There is an irony in this post coming after another titled: Creative statistics: reduced credibility. :)
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