This article reminded me again what will most likely be the biggest challenge facing our children (that we can predict). The ageing population. Have a look at the statistics. The latest data from the U.N. Demographic Commission clearly show the aging of the developed world:
* In the United States, in 1950 there were seven people of working age (20-65) for every retiree, and even today, there are almost five.
* But by 2030, when the last of the baby boom generation retires, that ratio will fall by nearly one-half, down below 3 to 1.
* In Japan, by mid-century the ratio of workers aged 20-65 to retirees will fall to just over one-for-one.
* At that time the most populated five-year age segment in Japan will be those ages 75-80; the same will be true in Italy, Spain, Greece and other European countries.
However, instead of an easy retirement, many retirees will find a future marked by bankrupt government social programs and declining asset values that will quickly deplete their nest eggs. As a result, average retirement age would have to be raised beyond life expectancy in many countries just to keep pace.
By comparison New Zealand currently has 4.2 workers per retiree. By 2051 that will drop to 1.7 (based on Statistics New Zealand population projections.)
3 comments:
The aging population is a problem, but it is a temporary and self correcting problem. In at the most 30 years the bulk of the baby boomers will have died and Western countries will have a significantly reduced population. Which is what we want isn't it?
Mark V said " In at the most 30 years the bulk of the baby boomers will have died and Western countries will have a significantly reduced population. Which is what we want isn't it?"
Nope its not what we want at all.
See nature abhors a vacuum and as is already evident in Western Europe the declining native population is replaced by immigrants from third world countries who do not hold the values of the native populations.
Thus in the UK there is a significant South Asian population, Holland and Germany it is west asian people and the Iberian penisular is being colonized from North Africa.
And these people are not assimilating. Rather they are holding to their own cultural values and becoming dissaffected with the values of their new countries.
The effects of this have been seen rather dramatically in London, Madrid, Paris and Amsterdam in recent times.
In response to andrei, the problem with immigrants from third world countries (and I agree it is a problem) is that the Western European governments have panicked. They have taken a short term view and believe they can solve the problem of an aging population by bringing in lots of immigrants. They have obviously not considered the consequences of allowing into the country large numbers of people with alien cultural values. (Or political correctness does not allow them to.)
My point is that it is not necessary. The cost of providing for an aging population can be met to a large degree by for example getting more people off welfare, encouraging saving for retirement, reducing superannuation payments for say the first ten years.
There will be some pain but it will be short lived. The cost of bringing in lots of immigrants with alien cultural values will, as you say andrei, be on going.
By not allowing the entry of all those people from third world countries, Western countries will end up with a reduced population, and that I maintain is desirable.
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