Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Minister Bennett mistaken or misled

A 'welfare commentator' must be politically even-handed. If Jacinda Ardern gets it wrong I'm quick to criticise.

When it was reported  Paula Bennett said, "There were 659 subsequent children born to parents already claiming a benefit this January," I knew the number was either aberrant or wrong.

So I queried the number with MSD and received this response,

"to answer your question the number does not necessarily relate to children born in January - but rather children who were to be added, in January, to client benefits as subsequent children."


So then I asked,


What were the ages of the subsequent  children added to an existing benefit in January?

 but was told


unfortunately we are not able to provide an age breakdown for subsequent children

A subsequent child could be added to a foster carer's benefit; or moved into a 'safer' family at CYF instigation; moved from a mother to a father; adopted (particularly whangai) and so on.

Subsequent babies born directly onto a  benefit number annually around 4,800 or
400 monthly.

 "As the second round of welfare reforms come back before Parliament, Social Development Minister Paula Bennett says the 650 children born to women already claiming a benefit in January are reason enough for her tough reforms"
250 would represent an increase of 62 percent.

There is no need to exaggerate  statistics to justify crucial reforms, especially when inaccurate claims could undermine support.

Pay your weight

What's the difference between carrying extra kilos in baggage and extra kilos on your person, except you get charged for the first? The economies of air travel are directly linked to weight carried and in an increasingly tight market I'd expect this policy to become more widespread. It will only take one major airline to adopt it, making them more attractive to most flyers, and the competition won't be able to afford not to. The NZ Herald is running a poll:

Is it fair to charge overweight passengers more to fly?

1500–1550 votes
Yes - it should be a policy on all airlines.
69%
Maybe - but only a small fee.
12%
No - it's discrimination.
19%

Reducing inequality among road injured

Data has been available for some time that shows Maori are statistically more likely to be involved in a road accident. Now the University of Auckland has measured the risk for Maori children in that region:

Maori children are 65 per cent more likely to be killed or hurt on our roads than children of other ethnicities.

This is synonymous with heightened risk of poverty, neglect, abuse, ill-health, educational under-achievement,  involvement with crime, etc. It is hardly surprising. What captured me was this sentence:

University of Auckland researcher Dr Jamie Hosking said the report highlighted what needed to be done to reduce inequality among those injured.

Another 'inequality obsessed' academic not thinking through the implications of his words.

A reduction in inequality amongst the injured could be achieved if more 'rich' people had accidents. Or more Asians, who are apparently the safest road users.

The goal is surely a reduction of injuries irrespective of ethnicity or economic status.

Does he come out with this sanitised-speak simply to avoid saying, we need to see an improvement in the safety practices around and on roads by Maori, and particularly Maori parents?


Of course describing road-risk  as an 'inequality' problem segues nicely into the logical next step which is, naturally enough, to spend more money righting it.

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Calls for more spending/borrowing are astonishing

It is not my primary intention to argue against tax cuts but I couldn't accept the PSA Secretary Richard Wagstaff's rationale for extending Paid Parental Leave. My response in Monday's DomPost:



DomPost: Early work tests for adding children to a benefit fair

Yesterday's DomPost editorial was pleasantly forthright.

After the usual preamble about welfare being a social contract which most beneficiaries do not exploit, it continues,

"Sadly, however, some beneficiaries see it as their God-given right to remain on welfare for life and not only make no effort to improve their lot, but add to the burden on taxpayers.
They include women on the domestic purposes benefit who seem to believe they can have as many children as they want while remaining dependent on the state, and that workers will be happy to pay for them to have that privilege...."
More

Monday, April 01, 2013

The falling teenage birth rate

A commentor yesterday was surprised that the teenage birth rate is dropping.

I've extracted the data from Statistics NZ and charted them. The first chart shows the birth rate per 15-19 year-olds has been dropping since 2008. The Maori rate is much higher which left me with the question, is the total rate falling only because the Maori rate is?

So I've charted births in absolute numbers. There's a slight quirk in that the Maori data is for births under twenty but there are very few under 15 so the line wouldn't change significantly.

Births for both Maori and non-Maori are dropping. I didn't chart the Pacific and Asian data but the trend is the same. So the reasons, whatever they are, are at least cross-cultural. That's a start. It'll be fascinating to see where the lines go in the next seven years.


Update. The birth rates are falling in every age group except 40 plus. Better half has just said to me it's the recession and that the same thing happened in the Depression. I imagine that the 40 plus females are going against the trend because they are running out of time and have better financial means. Also WFF introduced in 2005 seemed to produce a bit of a temporary baby boom, so a return to more 'normal' rates would be seen as a fall. But the teenage birth in 2012 was the lowest it's ever been (at least according to data going back to 1962 and you wouldn't expect it to be lower in times when people married and started families relatively young).

Sunday, March 31, 2013

"You shouldn't leave a man alone with a baby"

Whaleoil has blogged a YouTube clip supposed to provoke outrage against male physical play with a baby.

By coincidence we had a visiting 15 month-old today.




My (almost) 19 year-old son looked after her from the outset. Her step Granddad was doing swing rides with secure hands, they encouragingly guided her up and down steps, they 'danced' to get her dancing. She loved every moment.

Any 'movement' against men looking after babies is tragic.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Reported progress with youth

The current government has been keen to increasingly involve the private sector  in a number of areas. MSD has just reported on the progress of their Social Sector trials which have been running in half a dozen locations - Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Te Kuiti, Kawerau, Levin and Gore - and will be extended and rolled out elsewhere. They involve smallish communities finding their own solutions to problem youth. Some of the trials are led by employed individuals, others by charitable trusts. They build on and co-ordinate  existing services and programmes which are highly practical. Apparently:

Momentum around the Social Sector Trials is strong. Anecdotal evidence suggests increased levels of cooperation, collaboration, transparency and accountability around programmes and services as well as progress towards impacts on outcomes.
Outcomes reported at the local level include:

  • truancy levels trending downwards
  • disengaged young people being identified and supported into engagement in education, training and employment (through new local programmes, advocacy, and exposure to opportunities)
  • young people who would not normally access services being able to in their own environment (nurses, doctors, youth workers, and social workers being available in schools)
  • individual plans being put in place for young people with high and complex needs
  • young people having access to positive opportunities such as holiday programmes, youth hubs, intensive mentoring and community events
  • more young people accessing help for drug and alcohol problems
  • young people being supported to pay off justice sector fines and be supported through activities such as drivers licensing to reduce the possibility of fines occurring
  • young people knowing how/where to access programmes and services
It's all very paternalistic but we are talking 12-18 year-olds. Someone has to step in when normal parenting is absent. Just a thought and mentioned before, I've been scratching my head over the dropping teenage birthrate. These programmes may be one factor.

Friday, March 29, 2013

Truth column March 21-27

My Truth column from March 21-27:


It is my fervent hope that National exercises its financial veto against extending paid parental leave from 14 to 26 weeks.
Apparently, many mums and dads and babies turned up at the select committee last week to support Sue Moroney’s member’s bill.
“Think of the children,” they said in one voice.
Well why don’t you, the parent, think about the children?

More

Thursday, March 28, 2013

DI rolls "heading for collapse" in US?

The NCPA has a piece on the soaring disability insurance numbers in the US:

Since 1970, the number of individuals receiving DI has grown sixfold (from 1.4 million to 8.8 million), and the program expenses have grown tenfold, which is unsustainable.
How does NZ compare?

Using sickness and invalid benefit annual totals, the numbers have grown from 14,310 in 1970 to 147,029 in 2011 - more than ten-fold. Measured against the total population there are 28 claimants per 1,000 in the US compared to 33 per 1,000 here.

(That ignores long-term ACC claimants.)

Meanwhile both country's populations have grown by around 55 percent over the same period.

Still, neither country's problem is as big as some EU countries.




Monday, March 25, 2013

She believed the rhetoric

When was the last time you heard someone say "It takes a village to raise a child"? Not long ago I bet. Or "... children are a community responsibility". All the time. These are OUR children we are told.

And that's what the mother of a baby left in a Porirua Pack'n.Save carpark thought too. Baby all tucked up and sleeping peacefully, she left a note asking anyone who saw it wake ring her cellphone.

But wait now for the howls of outrage from the collectivists....

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Rubbish from Russel Norman

Green co-leader Russel Norman says:

90 percent of Kiwis not interested in Key’s asset sales

He bases this on the 425,000 registered expressions of interest as a share of the total population. That includes the million or so children.

Roughly, there are around 1.5 million households in New Zealand with an average of 3 occupants. In general only one occupant, the main bread-winner, would make the expression of interest. So 425,000 expressions could easily represent interest from 1, 2, 3 or more others.

Being as loose as Russel Norman with statistics I could simply say the expression of interest represents 28 percent of households. And then claim that  72 percent of Kiwis aren't interested.

Of course that would still be untrue as many people would be interested but 1/ unable to afford the shares, or 2/ simply not registered their interest. For instance, I'm still thinking about it.

I haven't registered an interest in buying Mighty River shares but I support their sale and asset sales in general.

It's just desperate and dishonest stuff from Norman. It must be humiliating to have to chase after the votes of fools. Only an idiot would believe this claim.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Why some people can't get jobs

 According to Stuff:


"Some employers say they are dealing with dozens of applicants unpresentable and unfit for work and they fear it's only going to get worse as the next wave of benefit reforms starts to settle in and more beneficiaries are forced to actively look for work...despite the many jobless, employers say continual absenteeism, substance abuse and poor work ethic appear to be making a lot of them unemployable."
Employers occasionally speak out about their difficulty in getting good people. It's more often a lament heard on talkback radio than read in print but the stories aren't uncommon. I don't doubt their veracity and they make me angry, despairing and worried.

These 'inadequates' to put it politely will doubtless be passing on their own attitudes and impaired intelligences to their children. I fear that cutting off their benefit incomes won't motivate them positively. It'll just turn them into more resentful, more bitter and more desperate characters.

That is not to say it shouldn't happen.  A line has to be drawn. Society has to concede that some people have been helped as much as possible. Their education, their health, housing and income needs have all been met by the state to no avail. In fact, to their detriment.

The "next wave of benefit reforms" will begin to pull back the carpet under which we have swept this problem for too long.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

One in five babies welfare dependent by year-end

Media Release

ONE IN FIVE BABIES BORN 2012 ON WELFARE BY YEAR-END

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Data released under the Official Information Act shows that 21.2 percent of babies born in 2012  were dependent on a caregiver receiving a welfare benefit by the end of the same year.

Welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell said that, "Over one in five babies reliant on welfare by year-end is a sobering and sad statistic. But it's worse for Maori at over 1 in 3 or 35.9 percent."

"There is now an established pattern of childbearing involving birth onto an existing benefit or recourse to welfare soon after.  This occurs during good and bad economic periods. For instance, in 2007, when New Zealand briefly experienced the lowest unemployment rate in the OECD, the percentage only reduced to 19.1%"

"In general, the younger that children go on welfare, the longer they will stay in the benefit system. This leads to chronic child poverty and the many associated risks."

"Current and forthcoming welfare reforms are aimed at reducing this incidence but the answer remains largely with young females who need to be persuaded to gain educational qualifications, work skills and a committed partner before embarking on motherhood. "

(Talking to Larry Williams on NewstalkZB about this issue)

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Paula outbats Jacinda again

An exchange in parliament today:

Jacinda Ardern: Should a sole parent be able to study to become a nurse or a social worker while on the DPB or in her new categories of sole parent support or job seeker; if not, why not?
Hon PAULA BENNETT: It will depend on how that fits with their work-test obligations, so that will depend on the age of the youngest child. If they are aged under 5 years old, there will be absolutely no trouble in the parent studying full time. If they are aged over 5, there may be some part-time work obligations alongside of them, and the parent can still study if they are doing those.
Jacinda Ardern: No, they can’t.
Hon PAULA BENNETT: Yes, they can. They can perfectly well study and work 15 hours a week. In fact, most of us over this side did that. I know that the member would not be able to associate with that, but that is actually true. Parents can study part-time or full-time and also meet their part-time work-test obligations, which I think are entirely fair.

Truth Column March 14 -20

 My Truth column March 14 - 20

It was embarrassing listening to a woman bleating about the status of New Zealand females, their lack of representation on boards and experience of pay discrimination.  On International Women’s Day, March 8, 2013, I could find far, far more to celebrate than bitch about.

 More

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The starting out wage

The government wants to introduce (or re-introduce) a minimum youth rate and call it a Starting Out rate. It'll be $11 per hour.

Their professed aim is to get youth into employment.

My problem is this. Will more jobs be created because the price of labour is lowered, when job subsidies already exist and we still have high youth unemployment? An employer can already hire a young person at less than the minimum wage if he receives a Work and Income subsidy.

While NZ is still feeling the effects of the GFC will the difference between $13.75 and $11 create more jobs or simply represent a loss to the worker and a gain to the employer? In a growing economy I'm sure the optimum would be realised - more jobs. But currently, I don't know.

I support the move but with reservations about it being the silver bullet for reducing youth unemployment.

Council rate increases

Local government finance and policy analyst Larry Mitchell has a short piece in The Truth about council rate increases:

New Zealand Councils, particularly in this election year, make great PR play by citing their proposed current year’s percentage rate increases, more so if an increase is considered modest.
Public interest is drawn to such statements. The problem with council rate increase announcements is that they need not be correct. In fact many are downright misleading and here’s why.
Right on cue here comes my council, Hutt City:


Hutt City Council is proposing an average annual rate rise of less than one per cent in its annual plan for 2013-2014, says Lower Hutt Mayor Ray Wallace.
Mayor Wallace says councillors have proposed increasing rates revenue by an average of 0.9 per cent reflecting the strong financial management of the Hutt City Council’s finances.
Strong financial management? With operating expenditure of around $126 million and debt of $67 million and a deficit for the past two years?

Larry also produces a League Table for the 67 local authorities in NZ. It measures economic sustainability and affordability. Hutt City rates 43rd. For financial performance it rates 'fair'. A few councils achieve a 'good' or even 'very good'.

He writes about the reasons for council indebtedness:


The “it’s not our money” coupled to “castle-building” attitudes of elected members. We have elected many Councillors over the last ten or so years whose debt-fuelled adventures with our money have lead to Council debt levels and gold plated community infrastructure without consideration of their basic affordability to ratepayers and their effect upon ongoing financial sustainability. Large stadia (Dunedin) expensive Council organisations with expensive tastes (with Auckland Council leading the way) and bloated payrolls have unfortunately become the norm. Audit meantime has stood idly by without exercising their wider mandate powers to ensure that public monies are not wasted. Elected members have failed to adequately set and supervise affordable policies that match the incomes and demographics of their ratepayer-electors....

And finally, the role played by the beauracrats. There are some very good people out their working for Councils. But far too many, starting at the top and with CEO leadership missing in action who have paid little heed to matters such as cost containment . They continue to project expenditure/rates increases that pay little heed to the realities of a persistent recession. Enough has been written already of inflated senior staff salaries. I would just add this. Within the relatively stable, secure, mostly risk free circumstances of their employment Council employee terms of engagement do not justify the present private sector competitive rates of payment.
And the following (included in the League Table report) referring to any effect of the GFC, is an article published in Local Government Magazine Feb 2011:

Mr Mitchell says longer term recovery strategies will be needed by 2012 or earlier. Financial plans must now
confront the budget realities of affordability and ‘cut the cloth’.
“These steps should be followed by meaningful and ongoing audit and performance assurance, coupled with
independent advice on the matters. Elected members must avoid ‘staff capture’ by insisting upon provision 
of independent advice covering a range of well understood and fully cost/benefited options.”
Mr Mitchell says he doesn’t accept that councils’ financial problems are principally due to the recession 
which has gripped New Zealand since the international banking crisis hit.“No, I don’t think so. This situation, 
let’s call it a crisis, for that it may well be, has been a long time in the making.
“A major reason that springs immediately to mind is a perverse and unforeseen consequence of the 2002 Act.
This legislation that promised so much has put councils into something of an inflexible and unresponsive
medium term (three to ten-year) straitjacket. It is called the Long Term Council Community Plan. While this
plan is regularly reviewed, it tends to build a model that has in its effect constrained councils’ ability to
readily react to the external financial-economic environment. And this is particularly so of course, when a
recession hits as quickly as this one has.“If you go back to the 2006 and earlier plans, all o
f their projections were for steady increases, as if there was no tomorrow, including − and this is the killer −
the failure to control maximum prudent-affordable-sustainable debt levels. The interest only content of an average residential rates bill for highly indebted councils is alreadyover 25 per cent of its total; a bit like some heavily mortgaged homeowners really to put this into some context."
He believes that current financial difficulties have been exacerbated by the effects of the
short term changesbrought about by a three-year election cycle, coupled with the hands-
off compliance and procedural nature of audits of the LTCCPs.
The LTCCP unfortunately has become a more prescriptive document than is desirable, he says.
“It tends not to stress the importance of affordability and sustainability issues; it pays only passing regard for
the need to adopt accountable economic and financial performance measurement and to cap that lot off its
legislative structure limits the flexibility of councils to make changes even when they see the tsunami coming.
“I believe councils tend to get locked into their plans. If it was a private-sector company, it could react within
a month or at most within a quarter. Given council inertia linked to their legislative and operational
environment it’s like turning around the Titanic.
“Councils are going to have to get pretty active in the next 12 to 24 months because they won’t have many
easy options left. And now they just have! to take the correct actions.”

Monday, March 18, 2013

Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy Syndrome - ethnicity



The really good news is the general SUDI rate is trending down - significantly. But:
"We were especially concerned to see that the rate of death in Maori and Pacific infants is significantly higher than for European infants,'' Dr Baker said.
"We're not sure exactly why this is, although differences in the rate of smoking during pregnancy may be a factor. We know that infants exposed to cigarette smoke in pregnancy tend to be smaller and are more prone to suffocation.''

A summary of the first results from Growing Up In NZ, a birth cohort study, found:

* More than one in 10 mothers continued to smoke through their pregnancies (with an over-representation of those identifying as Maori and living in the most deprived areas.)
Again (and I could write a paper on this subject) conflating Maori and Pacific isn't helpful.

Over 2003 to 2007 there were 202 SUDI deaths for Maori babies; 42 for Pacific; 4 for Asian and 80 for 'other'. The rate (per relevant population) for Pacific is well under Maori although higher than 'other'.

Any report that differentiates between 'Maori and Pacific' and 'other'  should  go  further and highlight the difference between Maori and Pacific. That story also holds important clues.

Cyprus

“Any government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have."

(source disputed)

Some more up-to-date quotes about the situation via Robert Tracinski:

Thomas Pascoe explains why this is such an alarming precedent.
"The principle that there is no division between your private property and communal property which may be appropriated by the government whenever it sees fit is an outrageous one in any system other than Communism. The idea that a government which has chronically misspent may order the banks to close and deduct a sum of its choosing from a person's balance before allowing it to re-open is beyond parody. "In the name of saving the state, central banks throughout the West have been conducting inflationary policies which act as a tax on savings. At least that is subtle. Now, in order to mitigate the excesses of the rash, both private borrowers and the government, savers are being taxed directly.
"The establishment of the principle that a government can, and at times of economic strain must, help itself to your savings, and that this is a legitimate tool of statecraft, ought to provoke riots."
Megan McArdle explains why European finance ministers thought they could get away with raiding accounts in Cyprus: it has become a haven for tax-dodging Russian oligarchs. The problem is the question everyone is asking themselves right now: where will this be tried next?
"If Cyprus had done this on its own, the country would be in trouble, but the rest of the world would just emit a bemused sigh and move on. Now, however, this plan has the imprimatur of the EU stamped on it—and so people are going to be looking hard at other European banking systems. Which other nations' depositors might have to take a similar haircut in the future? "Hopefully, savers will view Cyprus as an extreme one-off: a tiny nation whose banking system was unsustainably oversized for its economy, and whose substantial depositor base of kleptocratic foreigners made it uniquely difficult to deliver government support.
"The problem is, Europe seems to be chock full of unique, one time problems with its banking system. There's a real risk that investors will decide that they'd rather not stick around to see what one-of-a-kind, custom-crafted solution the European ministers come up with next."