Saturday, August 28, 2021

Inflated death rate over Covid-free summer

 

From the University of Waikato, this is a multi-layered chart.

The black line depicts deaths during the year from just before the first lock down to the end of  Feb 2021.

The gray lines depict deaths in the same period for each of the prior 9 years.

The red line depicts nine-year average deaths in the same months.

The black line veers strongly away from the norm after October/November 2020.

Officially:
"The fall in all‐causes mortality after lockdowns in 2020 is only a short‐term effect. A winter of no excess mortality was followed by four months of excess mortality totaling  about 1200 deaths (ca. four percent of annual deaths). The surge in deaths was concentrated on the elderly so public health interventions only slightly postponed death.  Repeating Covid control measures in future to deal with  seasonal influenza may provide just short‐term benefits."

But there was also a small "surge" in deaths in  0-64 year-olds around Dec/Nov:


I can only speculate. 

But Covid definitely affected death rates - just not in the way anticipated.

4 comments:

Mark Wahlberg said...

Lindsay, like the last lockdown, here in Smallville the towns 2 coffin factories have been working through, digging deep to keep the shelves stocked for our personal Judgement Day.

A local gossip has informed me one of the factories mentioned, had just secured a contract for suppling the NZ Army with personal containment devices. The mind boggles!!!

dragonfly said...

This is curious. On Xmas day 2020 I realised I didn’t feel well. I went on to get what seemed to be an unusually bad cold. It proved to be very contagious - almost everyone who was with us on Xmas day got it, ranging from mild to very unpleasant. I am someone who almost never gets sick - I have had the flu twice in my life (in both cases associated with pregnancy) and I very seldom get even a bad cold. I cannot recall ever getting a cold in summer. I know that other people also experienced something similar around this time.

Rick said...

The lockdown didn't protect our elderly, they died just the same. A short‐term effect bought them perhaps 4 months.

It was never about that though, contrary to advertising. As NZB3 predicted in January 2020 it was really about avoiding an epidemic outbreak in our immigrant community. They're still copping it but it would have been much worse. This, of course, could never have been the public reason. It would have been seen as a racist government policy. So everyone had to be locked down the same. The Noble Lie.

Ref. http://nzb3.anarkiwi.co.nz/2020/04/18/the-noble-covid-19-lie/

Wharaway said...

Went to a friends 60th in Sept 2019. Most of the party goers became very sick with the worse cold we have ever experienced, lasted for between 3 and 10 days. In hindsight was probably this very bad cold strain