Thursday, July 22, 2021

The stunning drop in women having children

No, it's not news but I thought I would update the chart to latest available. June's not up but here's to the end of March. Trends that happen so rapidly are quite fascinating. I wrote a paper about it here.


Total fertility rate is defined as "the average number of live births that a woman would have during her life if she experienced the age-specific rates of a given period (usually a year)."

The rate is 1.6 births at March end. I wonder how low it will go?

What prompted me to look for an update was Peter Willliams interviewing a woman  on Magic Talk today who advocates against loneliness, wants a Minister for Loneliness appointed even.

Shrinking families won't contribute to a reduction in loneliness. That's for sure.


3 comments:

Kiwiwit said...

The desire of the woman you mention to have a Minister for Loneliness is ironic, given that it is precisely the substitution of the nanny state for personal responsibility that is the source of the decreasing importance of the family (and, by consequence, procreation) in our society.

Eamon Sloan said...

Abortion has been a major contributor to New Zealand’s falling birth rate. The following formed part of my submission to the Parliamentaary committee (2019).

Supplementary Submission to Select Committee hearings on Abortion Legislation Bill
Submitted by ::: Eamon Sloan

Replacement Fertility Rate

Abortion over the past 40 years has had a major effect on New Zealand’s fertility rate. The point was made in my written submission that had there been zero abortions since 1977, New Zealand would now have a population of over 5 million, maybe up to 5.6 or 5.7 million. Over recent years statistics reveal that a near average 20% of all pregnancies have ended in abortion. The effect of abortion on the replacement fertility rate is significant and has been standing in plain sight in the statistics through all of that time.

I would recommend that the committee asks for further work to be completed on the effect abortion is having on the replacement fertility rate – in order to convince today’s parliament there is an urgent need to substantially reduce the number of abortions. Please note, this submission does not hold that abortion is the sole factor contributing to a declining fertility rate and the current population decline.

In terms of population decline considerable damage has been done and is ongoing - social and economic damage combined. It is worth noting that in each of the past six years (2012-2018) the natural increase has fallen below the total deaths in each year. It will require at least two generations to “turn the ship around” – that is from the 1977 starting point. The pro-abortion lobbies and various legislators are certainly not blameless for their part in having brought New Zealand to this point.

In short, we have an urgent need for an abortion prevention programme, accompanied by, for want of a better term, a maternity encouragement programme.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Eamon wrote,"Abortion has been a major contributor to New Zealand’s falling birth rate."

That suggests that abortions are increasing.
They are not. The general abortion rate has been declining every year since 2003.


Back to Eamon, "Abortion over the past 40 years has had a major effect on New Zealand’s fertility rate. The point was made in my written submission that had there been zero abortions since 1977, New Zealand would now have a population of over 5 million, maybe up to 5.6 or 5.7 million."

The problem with this calculation is that females increasingly choose and control how many children they have.

For instance, an abortion at a young age is followed by a 'replacement' birth at an older age.

If a female is 'forced' to continue with a birth at a young age she may/will self-limit her fertility in later years.

Eamon, I'm no abortion fan but your assertion doesn't stack up.