Monday, September 29, 2014

National 1938 to 2014

Kiwiblog has the following depiction of Labour's polling results from 1938 to 2014. Curiosity got the better of me so I produced the same for National beneath. Same downward trendline but nowhere near as steep.




Labour eletion results
 
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8 comments:

The Java Monkey said...

Is that trendline accurate though, or did you just slap one on there?

10:49 AM
Lindsay Mitchell said...

Excel auto-generated linear trendline.

11:25 AM
Anonymous said...

Prior to the first MMP election in 1996. NZ had in essence a two party system of National and Labour. Its difficult to see how during this period of time both parties could have been trending downwards in their percentage of the vote.

5:03 PM
Anonymous said...

The individual party trends are not all that important.

What is critical is the left-right split - which shows a clear line upwards over the last 60 years, accelerating in the last 10, in NZ and basically all of the "Welfare West".

When National hit their low-point of 20%, Labour was only on 40% and the left barely made it past 50%. But even though labour on 25% seems to be doing better than National, National now is on 50% and the Right as a whole is something like 65%. Cunliffe actually did 10 points worse than English - not 5 points better!

The West is moving away from Welfare, away from "Social Democracy", and towards Freedom and Personal Responsibility

5:16 PM
Anonymous said...

Prior to the first MMP election in 1996. NZ had in essence a two party system of National and Labour. Its difficult to see how during this period of time both parties could have been trending downwards in their percentage of the vote.


no shows, Social Credit & Bob Jones

5:16 PM
Lindsay Mitchell said...

Social Credit from 1954

Values from 1972

NZ Party from 1981

All parties which recieved substantial shares of the vote but didn't win electorates. That was the push behind MMP. The parliamentary representation didn't reflect the voting make-up.

5:18 PM
Anonymous said...

That was the push behind MMP

Plus:
a couple of Muldoon Naitonal govts with substantially less vote s than Labour
and a feeling both Labour (84) & Nats (91) lied to the country about what they would do.

Of course in retrospect it's clear the did the right things; and in prospect, it's very clear indeed that everyone who said MMP would basically destroy the economy because governments could never again do those right things were absolutely on the money.

Exhibit #1: John Key's government

5:32 PM
Anonymous said...

Interesting, the downward trend for national is heverly influenced by the very low point of 2002. Could you email me the raw data or a link to it. David at zestos dot co dot NZ. Thx

8:54 PM

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