Key's moderate, Howard-style, bit-by-bit-term-by-term National-leaning policy evolution should be in tune with a party that went through 30 years of seesawing positioning and wants to settle back into long-term government commanding the centre.
There are two complications to this comfortable scenario.
One is the structure of the next government. This term Key has a super-majority, with ACT to support some measures and the Maori party to support others and deliver some Maori voters.
If in the next term National needs both parties for a majority (likely if, say, Labour gets 38 per cent and the Greens 6 per cent), managing their antithetical positions to pass contentious legislation will be very challenging -- or paralysing.
Even if there is a super-majority again (a real possibility) [my link insertion] can Key keep both in the tent?
He has given the Maori party some big mana wins and whanau ora. There is not much more mana he can deliver without upsetting conservative National members and voters. Whanau ora has potential to embarrass if not very tightly managed.
On the other side, Rodney Hide has had some big wins in deregulation and local government this term plus some totemic wins. What can Key give him in a second term that doesn't scare the centre? (Might Hide look elsewhere to continue his career: for example, the Auckland mayoralty in 2013?)
And all the while, the economy will not be flying high and might even have another bad turn, given the debt-driven turmoil and huge uncertainties in the global economy. The 2014 election might look grim. Will Key want to risk a loss?
The point is that so far Key has not hit any big bumps in the road nor has had to make any really hard decisions. That has maximised the openings in the clouds for his sunny personality to shine through on his party.
So it will shine this coming weekend. And his faithful will bask.
Interesting observation about ACT and Rodney Hide. I struggle to see how ACT can survive 2011. Rodney can, but the party? What can they ask for policy-wise? The public perception is that law and order, welfare, education and health are all undergoing reform. Could they get votes on repealing the ETS? And is it politically tenable for National to entertain kowtowing?
Still, as they say, a week is along time in politics - let alone a year.
7 comments:
I'm very disappointed in ACT's performance over the past year and a half.
The party has become National's lapdog and acquiesced every one of its policies, regardless of the speeches for the masses trying to save face. Add to that the damage cause by Hide's perks abuse.
The ETS was the last straw. Seeing ACT going along without having the courage to break the agreement with the spineless National Party facilitated my decision: ACT has lost my vote
Vote for the Kiwi Party, they listen to the electorate and will not sell us out for power. Act/National, a no-go for me too.
Black print on a dark background too tough for my fading vision.
Sorry Baxter. Don't know why that happened but I will try and fix it.
Key has given hide nothing but a few baubles of office.
No real tax cuts. No selloffs. No priviisation. No spending cuts.
Look at Cameron on the UK!
All departments requited to plan for spending cuts of minimum 25%, maximum 40%
Privitisation of the NHS!
Compared to that - what's Key done? Nothing
I would say that there are (and remain) some serious issues which have been minimised and avoided by the government: the critical path of the welfare state; borrowing a $billion a month to fund state services; weakening the private sector by increasing the minimum wage, no tax cuts, an increase in laws which dilute good laws & generally furthering the cause of socialism by failing to address the growing dependency on the state for all things.
This lot are worse than the last. At least the path to utopian communism was clear with the labour stooges.
With this lot we are getting what we voted for, good & hard.
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