Coarse calculations

I wonder if Michael Cullen's mullings go something like this.

Forget the polls. There are about 3.17 million people aged 18 and over in NZ. Voter turn-out in 2005 was 77%. That's 2.4 million. (Sounds about right as there were just under 2.3 million votes cast in 2005)

There are 371,000 families receiving WFF tax credits. Not all of these families will have two voters but let's assume two thirds do have. So 616,000 potential Labour voters. Improving WFF would tend to increase the chances of these voters ticking Labour. Tops this group provides 26 percent of the vote.

Another strong group for Labour are working-age beneficiaries currently totalling 256,000. Take away the 180,000 who are receiving WFF tax credits which leaves 76,000 or 3 percent of the vote.(Labour will focus a lot of energy here as they did in 2005 in South Auckland.)

Then look at 65+ age group. Roughly half a million voters. Many will vote Labour because they have always voted Labour. Voting Labour is an act of tradition and faith. Why change the habit of a lifetime? Let's guess that half will tick Labour. That's another 10 percent.

Then there are some 200,000 single and couple childless people receiving an accommodation supplement. That's 8 percent but could overlap significantly with the beneficiary vote and 65+ vote so call it 3.

What about civil servants? 36,000. Good for another 1 percent.

That's 43 percent best scenario. Risky. Some more bribery will soon be called for.