Monday, February 01, 2010

When he's 64

Kiwiblog linked to a Treasury paper within which is this little gem. It's a wonderful depiction of the ageing population. I mentally plotted the line that would represent my first born across it. He will enter the grey zone in 2059 when there will be, well, one heck of a lot more oldies than there are now. What do you reckon will have happened to Super by then?

My guess is that the country will still be arguing over means-testing, surcharges, universality etc, as it did all through the 20th century; the eligibility age will be 70 and the payment rate will be a lower percentage of the average wage than it is now.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh Lindsay - after dealing with leftist climate science now you're preaching Malthusian doom - another leftist horror story.

There really is no problem here. Lots of reasons why.

1. hopefully sometime between now and 2059 there will be an actual centre-right government, hell perhaps even lead by Hide, Brash, and Douglas.
After that, there won't be any govt super. Problem solved.

2. given our frankly communist education, health & WFF provision, kids (young bludgers) are actually more epensive than retirees (old bludgers). We go from about 30% total dependencies now, to 40% way out in 2060, with a higher proprtion of codgers. This will remain easy to fund - even
if the pollies for some mad reason don't just
kill the codger-dole!


3. Yeah more codgers because more people live longer, but also they are healthier, so they can work longer. Sure what's left of the codger-dole will be means tested... just like the old "surtax". that's not a problem and hell even Labour might bring that in again. But people will need
codger-dole later and later

4. Immigration - from the pacific, from Europe, from China. We can bring in young people or young
familes to breed, thus ensuring enough drones
working to pay the taxes to support the codger-dole!

David Baigent said...

The reassurance that your boy will enjoy (should he even remain in NZ) will come from "key-hole" extraction of minerals from land, including the conservation estate, and from hydrocarbons off our west and southwest coastline.

MacDoctor said...

My guess is that the country will still be arguing over means-testing, surcharges, universality etc

My guess is that in 2059, I won't care...

Sadly, the most obvious solution will be the legalisation of euthanasia.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Lindsay said...

Anon, I am very light on censoring comments. Too light-handed for some. But I have had enough of yours.