I thought I'd heard yesterday about another delayed death as a result of violence, and a subsequent upgraded assault charge to murder. But a search has revealed nothing new since the death of a Kawerau man. Perhaps the report I heard related to the accused's appearance in court.
But here's the thing. There have been so many murders since January 1 - seven - they blur into each other. They are now so common place I struggle to recall the individual details of each case. That in itself is shocking yet I don't feel shocked.
Recently I have started reading bits and piece written by people far younger than me who claim this violent crime stat or that violent crime stat is slightly better than the 1980s and 90s as if cause for celebration. But I go back to the 1960s and 70s when murders were remarkable occurrences.
Plus we are constantly bombarded by the media over road deaths and drownings. Accidents, even if avoidable. By comparison I read little if anything about deaths from violence - excluding domestic violence that is.
I think it's a reality. We are now desensitised to murder. And that very desensitisation means a return to days when murders were rare and dominated the news is highly unlikely.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Bennett over-egging success of new policy
Further to my last post questioning the drop in sole parents on the DPB, I remain very sceptical about the spin being put on this. Here's why.
Yesterday's NZ Herald headline was:
Typically an average of 13,000 people will leave the DPB each year because they "obtained work". These are the figures for the financial years 2007/08 forward:
Obtained paid work 16,223 14,755 11,706 10,714 12,834
So there is nothing remarkable about 3200 finding work in one quarter.
The numbers of sole parents on the DPB (which excludes carers of the sick and infirm, woman alone and those on the emergency maintenance allowance) for the years 2007-2011:
A return to 95,000 is a good thing. But to be expected as we moved out of recession.
Yesterday's NZ Herald headline was:
Bennett trumpets 5000 fewer on DPB
"The number of sole parents on the domestic purposes benefit dropped by 5000 last year - a drop Social Development Minister Paula Bennett is attributing partly to her new policy requiring sole parents to get jobs when their youngest child turns five...Figures released yesterday showed there were 95,138 sole parents on the DPB at the end of 2012 - down from 100,266 the year before."Nowhere in the article does it mention that some of the decrease is down to 18 and 19 year-olds being moved onto the Young Parent Payment. I've had that confirmed by a spokesperson from MSD:
The number of sole parents receiving DPB reduced by around 5,000 in 2012; this includes around 1,000 18 and 19-year-olds who transferred to YPP in August.Bear in mind that for the last quarter no new 18 year-olds could have gone onto the DPB either. Back to the NZ Herald:
More than half of that drop happened in the last three months of the year, after the introduction of Ms Bennett's policy required sole parents to get part-time work when their youngest child turned five and fulltime work for those whose children were older than 14. Ms Bennett said 3221 sole parents had returned to work since that came into force in October.Now I am going to get quite technical and pedantic here. 5,000 over the year is a net loss. The difference between those who went on and those who went off. So to claim that "more than half of that drop happened in the last three months" is a nonsense.
Typically an average of 13,000 people will leave the DPB each year because they "obtained work". These are the figures for the financial years 2007/08 forward:
Obtained paid work 16,223 14,755 11,706 10,714 12,834
So there is nothing remarkable about 3200 finding work in one quarter.
The numbers of sole parents on the DPB (which excludes carers of the sick and infirm, woman alone and those on the emergency maintenance allowance) for the years 2007-2011:
| Domestic Purposes Benefit – Sole Parent | 87,601 | 86,695 | 93,404 | 99,284 | 99,945 |
Thursday, January 17, 2013
DPB numbers dropping?
The Minister of Social Development has just announced that there were 339,095 people on benefits at the end of December 2012. She hasn't released much more by way of detail about individual benefits and MSD don't have the data available at their site yet.
But she does say:
This will be accounting for some of the decrease. For instance between the June and September quarters the percentage of those on the DPB aged 18-19 dropped from 2.7 to 1.7%. It's never been that low.
While 3,221 left for work, that's typical. People go off, people go on, year long.
No. I reckon the drop the Minister is claiming as a 'positive' is a sleight of hand. Perhaps not intentional.
But I'll ring the MSD media team and find out where the Young Parent Payment statistics are being recorded and published.
But she does say:
The number of sole parents on the DPB dropped 1.6% over the quarter to 95,138 and 3,221 sole parents went off this benefit into work in that period.What she isn't saying is that single parents aged 18 now go onto the Young Parent Payment.
This will be accounting for some of the decrease. For instance between the June and September quarters the percentage of those on the DPB aged 18-19 dropped from 2.7 to 1.7%. It's never been that low.
While 3,221 left for work, that's typical. People go off, people go on, year long.
No. I reckon the drop the Minister is claiming as a 'positive' is a sleight of hand. Perhaps not intentional.
But I'll ring the MSD media team and find out where the Young Parent Payment statistics are being recorded and published.
PPTA attack charter schools
No surprises really that the PPTA want education dominated by the state. The following full page advertisement is apparently running in major newspapers today. I wonder how teachers feel about paying for these campaigns?
On the subject of the state monopolising education recall my post from Tuesday which quoted research showing those European countries which had the lowest percentage of young people not in employment, education, or training had dual education systems.
But the PPTA displays their stupidity in other ways too. For instance the first line of their ad:
"Family time, beach time, down time...that's the agenda for most of us right now."
If you are a teacher maybe. Most self-employed tradespeople, farmers, shop-workers, factory workers, health service providers etc etc are back with their noses to the grindstone, if they ever stopped.
I have a lot of time for teachers. Most that have taught my kids have been decent, hard-working, capable, sometimes inspirational people. But their union does their public image no favours.
On the subject of the state monopolising education recall my post from Tuesday which quoted research showing those European countries which had the lowest percentage of young people not in employment, education, or training had dual education systems.
But the PPTA displays their stupidity in other ways too. For instance the first line of their ad:
"Family time, beach time, down time...that's the agenda for most of us right now."
If you are a teacher maybe. Most self-employed tradespeople, farmers, shop-workers, factory workers, health service providers etc etc are back with their noses to the grindstone, if they ever stopped.
I have a lot of time for teachers. Most that have taught my kids have been decent, hard-working, capable, sometimes inspirational people. But their union does their public image no favours.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
No welfare for Kiwis in Australia? So be it
I'm out of step with public opinion on this one. Australia has every right to its political autonomy. If the government doesn't want to pay welfare and accord other privileges to New Zealanders who move there, that's their call. You can out up all the arguments the NZ Herald is making about paying tax, being productive etc. But the current rules have been in place since 2001. People heading over there should be well aware that they will need to support themselves through work or savings. It's just a damn shame that people prepared to do this are lost to New Zealand.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Herald wrong about NZ's youth unemployment
Writing in the NZ Herald about youth unemployment in NZ, calling for the PM to make it his priority, Fran O'Sullivan said this:
In the European Union, one in five young people under 25 who is willing to work can't get a job. That's Europe's problem, but in fact the ratio is much higher in New Zealand.
What is that claim based on?
Tables here show that in September 2012 of the 15-24 age group, officially unemployed are 65,200 out of a labour force of 376,500 - 17.3 percent.
Data from Eurostat :
In November 2012, 5.799 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.733 million were in the euro area. Compared with November 2011, youth unemployment rose by 329 000 in the EU27 and by
420 000 in the euro area. In November 2012, the youth unemployment rate was 23.7% in the EU27 and 24.4% in the euro area, compared with 22.2% and 21.6% respectively in November 2011. In November 2012 the lowest
rates were observed in Germany (8.1%), Austria (9.0%) and the Netherlands (9.7%), and the highest in Greece (57.6% in September 2012) and Spain (56.5%).
The unemployment rate for under 25 year-olds in EU27 in November 2012 was 23.7 percent compared to New Zealand's 17.3 percent. The ratio is not "much higher" here. In fact it is substantially lower.
Could the claim refer to the other measure of youth inactivity - the NEET (not in employment, education or training) rate?
The European Union NEET rate in July 2012 was 12.9 percent. In NZ in September 2012 it was 13.4 percent. Still no basis.
Anyway, this is interesting.
Scanning a European report about NEETs I came across this description of those countries with the least problem:
This cluster groups together continental and Nordic countries and includes Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. This is a mix of countries that have pursued flexicurity policies, neo-liberal countries and countries with a dual educational system. With the exception of the UK, all these countries are characterised by a low NEET rate.(Flexicurity definition - "It combines flexible hiring and firing with a generous social safety net and an extensive system of activation policies")
So the government's pursuing more flexible employment laws, putting more stringent work-testing on benefits and avoiding monopoly public education look like the right approach.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Truth column January 3
The Truth website is still being updated.
Here's my first column for 2013. A look at the year ahead in politics:
Ten things that might happen in 2013
1/ Labour MP Maryan Street's bill to legalise voluntary euthanasia gets pulled from the ballot triggering a scorching debate about one person's right to impose their religious beliefs on another. If you thought the smacking and prostitution debates were hot, to quote a famous lyric, "you ain't seen nothing yet".
2/ ACT doubles its parliamentary representation by making Brendan Horan its third leader in as many years.
3/ The mercurial John Tamihere - nicknamed "flip-flop" by his mate Willie Jackson - ditches Labour for National announcing he'll challenge Paula Bennett's nomination for Waitakere in 2014 (much less work than actually trying to win the seat as a Labour candidate.)
4/ Russell Norman escalates his demands on prospective coalition partner Labour, from Finance Minister to Prime Minister.
5/ Recently resigned shock-jock Michael Laws founds a new party and calls it Conservative Laws or CLAWS.
6/ Prime Minister John Key continues to say whatever comes into his head, alienating or endearing in equal numbers. Opposition leader, David Shearer continues to over-think whatever he says neither alienating nor endearing anybody.
7/ Green co-leader Metiria Turei is once more observed abusing her political position by campaigning in primary schools.
8/ Tariana 'should I stay or should I go' Turia holds a hui to get a better answer.
9/ The 'expert' group consulting on a constitutional review publishes recommendations that have as much impact as every other powwow required under a government support party agreement.
10/ Justice Minister, Judith Collins hands David Bain a $1.3 million compensation payment - along with an invoice for board and keep provided in error: 13 years @ 100,000 per annum.
Here's my first column for 2013. A look at the year ahead in politics:
Ten things that might happen in 2013
1/ Labour MP Maryan Street's bill to legalise voluntary euthanasia gets pulled from the ballot triggering a scorching debate about one person's right to impose their religious beliefs on another. If you thought the smacking and prostitution debates were hot, to quote a famous lyric, "you ain't seen nothing yet".
2/ ACT doubles its parliamentary representation by making Brendan Horan its third leader in as many years.
3/ The mercurial John Tamihere - nicknamed "flip-flop" by his mate Willie Jackson - ditches Labour for National announcing he'll challenge Paula Bennett's nomination for Waitakere in 2014 (much less work than actually trying to win the seat as a Labour candidate.)
4/ Russell Norman escalates his demands on prospective coalition partner Labour, from Finance Minister to Prime Minister.
5/ Recently resigned shock-jock Michael Laws founds a new party and calls it Conservative Laws or CLAWS.
6/ Prime Minister John Key continues to say whatever comes into his head, alienating or endearing in equal numbers. Opposition leader, David Shearer continues to over-think whatever he says neither alienating nor endearing anybody.
7/ Green co-leader Metiria Turei is once more observed abusing her political position by campaigning in primary schools.
8/ Tariana 'should I stay or should I go' Turia holds a hui to get a better answer.
9/ The 'expert' group consulting on a constitutional review publishes recommendations that have as much impact as every other powwow required under a government support party agreement.
10/ Justice Minister, Judith Collins hands David Bain a $1.3 million compensation payment - along with an invoice for board and keep provided in error: 13 years @ 100,000 per annum.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Children's Commissioner ignores context
The Children's Commissioner has started the year off with another condemnation of New Zealand's child poverty statistics:
Dr Wills is incredulous as he explains that no other OECD country had the same rise in child poverty or inequality in the 1990s.
Measured by the Gini coefficient one other country did have the same rise in inequality - Sweden.
And many other countries weren't far behind.
Those countries that didn't experience inequality growth - where income became more evenly distributed - were....
...France, Greece, Ireland, Spain and Turkey. All countries with economies that are in trouble.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Guest Post: Rodney Hide
In response to my post yesterday which suggested blaming government for obesity is an adrogation of personal responsibility, Rodney Hide writes:
I think you are wrong on this one Lindsay.
The government mantra is “calories in, calories out” with massive public programmes to “eat less, move more”. They are abject failures.
The government likewise has had a massive programme for years all around the world to demonise animal fat. It has worked. Animal fat consumption has dropped enormously.
People eat industrially-made margarine instead of butter and sugar laden manufactured cereals instead of bacon and eggs. Our meat is all low fat.
We have got fatter and sicker.
Homeostasis is the rule -- not the exception -- in the animal kingdom.
Fat metabolism is no different. It’s been known for years that fat accumulation is caused by dysregulation.
The culprit appears to be insulin spiked by excessive sugar and carbohydrate, which breaks down to sugar. People are eating more -- and exercising less -- because they are dysregulated. They can’t eat less because they feel they’re starving -- their brain is telling them they are because of the dysregulation.
The problem is this: cut out the fat and the carbohydrate goes up. In fact, the government mantra is “healthy, whole grains” a food we didn’t eat for 99.5 percent of our existence.
The food manufacturers love it. “Fat-free” is manufactured food. Pharmaceutical companies love it. Look where the big expenditure is on drugs.
Tragically, it now appears that poor eating by parents epigentically affects their offspring. Adult onset diabetes has had to be relabeled as type 2 diabetes.
It’s the same as “global warming”. The government has invested and built a bureaucracy around “unhealthy” eating and failed nutrition advice. It’s hard to imagine that bureaucracy admitting it’s wrong.
I have turned the food pyramid upside down. And never been better!
Rodney Hide
I think you are wrong on this one Lindsay.
The government mantra is “calories in, calories out” with massive public programmes to “eat less, move more”. They are abject failures.
The government likewise has had a massive programme for years all around the world to demonise animal fat. It has worked. Animal fat consumption has dropped enormously.
People eat industrially-made margarine instead of butter and sugar laden manufactured cereals instead of bacon and eggs. Our meat is all low fat.
We have got fatter and sicker.
Homeostasis is the rule -- not the exception -- in the animal kingdom.
Fat metabolism is no different. It’s been known for years that fat accumulation is caused by dysregulation.
The culprit appears to be insulin spiked by excessive sugar and carbohydrate, which breaks down to sugar. People are eating more -- and exercising less -- because they are dysregulated. They can’t eat less because they feel they’re starving -- their brain is telling them they are because of the dysregulation.
The problem is this: cut out the fat and the carbohydrate goes up. In fact, the government mantra is “healthy, whole grains” a food we didn’t eat for 99.5 percent of our existence.
The food manufacturers love it. “Fat-free” is manufactured food. Pharmaceutical companies love it. Look where the big expenditure is on drugs.
Tragically, it now appears that poor eating by parents epigentically affects their offspring. Adult onset diabetes has had to be relabeled as type 2 diabetes.
It’s the same as “global warming”. The government has invested and built a bureaucracy around “unhealthy” eating and failed nutrition advice. It’s hard to imagine that bureaucracy admitting it’s wrong.
I have turned the food pyramid upside down. And never been better!
Rodney Hide
Thursday, January 10, 2013
What else can we pin on government?
Here's food for thought. The Freeman claims government has made Americans fatter through pushing bad diet advice and being captured by food lobbyists. Summarised by NCPA:
...ultimately the most significant state contributor to obesity is public health. If someone else is going to pay for the consequences of your over-eating and under-exercising, that's one big disincentive out the window.
The government, with its accomplices in the food lobby, has helped to make and keep us fat. Through subsidies and misguided food suggestions, Congress, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture have made it more difficult for Americans to make smarter dietary decisions, says Jenna Robinson, director of outreach at the Pope Center for Higher Education Policy.Surely there comes a point when blaming government just becomes as bad as blaming anything else for what is largely a matter of personal responsibility. But...
One reason for why this is the case is that the government spreads misinformation about healthy eating. For example, in 1982 the government told Americans to reduce fat consumption from 40 percent to 30 percent of daily intake, according to the food pyramid. However, this resulted in Americans eating more carbohydrates, which have contributed to the increase in obesity rates.
- Americans spend $33 billion on weight loss products and services.
- Sixty-five percent of adults are overweight.
- The prevalence of obesity increased from 14.5 percent in 1980 to 30.5 percent today.
...ultimately the most significant state contributor to obesity is public health. If someone else is going to pay for the consequences of your over-eating and under-exercising, that's one big disincentive out the window.
Wednesday, January 09, 2013
Not so broken...not so fast
The Economist has a piece titled British Society: Not so broken (hat tip NotPC):
My main problem with this assertion is it treats those aged 15-25 as a single entity. If you broke behaviours and characteristics down into socio-economic sub-groups different trends may exist. Amongst the poorest, the products of the benefit society, there may be a flat-lining or even escalation of drug-taking, drinking and teenage pregnancies. They really need to disprove this before dismissing the following claim by UK Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan Smith:
"... society is not broken, at all. If anything, it's healthier than ever. In this week's issue, we've published a story about the current generation of young people—those aged between around 15 to 25. This generation of young people is the best behaved in decades. They drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, and have fewer teenage pregnancies. They get better exam results and are more likely to go to university. Frankly, they're incredibly well-behaved. All this has happened despite a huge and ongoing increase in levels of single-parenthood and a similarly large decline in marriage, not to mention the lack of discipline in schools that Mr Cameron mentioned."
My main problem with this assertion is it treats those aged 15-25 as a single entity. If you broke behaviours and characteristics down into socio-economic sub-groups different trends may exist. Amongst the poorest, the products of the benefit society, there may be a flat-lining or even escalation of drug-taking, drinking and teenage pregnancies. They really need to disprove this before dismissing the following claim by UK Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan Smith:
"All too often, government’s response to social breakdown has been a classic case of 'patching’—a case of handing money out, containing problems and limiting the damage but, in doing so, supporting—even reinforcing — dysfunctional behaviour."Anyone want to take issue with him? It's a fair summation in my view.
Sunday, January 06, 2013
Laws tells beneficiaries to grow veges
This is a welcome development, Michael Laws' column on-line the day it's published. Today he describes growing his first ever (as a grown-up) vegetable garden and advises beneficiaries to do the same so they too can eat better. They have the economic requirement and they have the time apparently.
I started growing stuff last year. Seedlings can be purchased dirt cheap (excuse the pun) from The Warehouse and save on growing time. For weeks we've used my home grown lettuces. The brocolli was a collosal failure with flowerheads that started to seed before they were the size of a good mouthful. But the capsicums look promising and the spring onions are good.
Yet I think growing stuff is generally a life phase. You can't help but notice it's mostly older people who hang out in garden centres. I've a standing order in with my husband to stop me when I start talking plants and veges. It's just too boring a topic of conversation. And once you start getting obsessive about it, like all hobbies, it can cost a fortune. Before you know it you're hankering after a greenhouse.
So it isn't necessarily the best budgeting advice to give to someone on a benefit. Market produce, if getting to one is feasible, is probably more cost-effective. Besides which, growing stuff out of sheer necessity might take away the pleasure, with experiments and failures too costly.
And let's be realistic. Vege gardens require two things; discipline and optimism. I recall a 'client' from my volunteering days. A sole mother of two whose major battle was mental. She was depressed and as low on motivation as I have ever witnessed. A kind church goer put in a wonderful vege garden for her. Spent hours digging over and preparing the ground. Tended to it while things got going. But I think a falling-out between them ensued and the garden went to wrack and ruin thereafter.
Gardening is like anything else in life. You've got to want to do it. And the problem with non bona fide beneficiaries is there's a long list of things that they just don't want to do and a very short list of things they do.
The trouble with the way Laws approaches the beneficiary problem is that he thinks he can make them like him. I used to think that. That I could make people see the world through my eyes; see the opportunities, experience the satisfaction of a job well done, look forward to tomorrow. But the potential for that to happen is too often destroyed by being locked in the benefit system.
I'm sorry. Here I am going into my 8th year of blogging still saying the same thing. It's welfare and the associated mentality that's the underlying problem. The other symptoms - Laws identifies poor parenting - generally stem from it.
I started growing stuff last year. Seedlings can be purchased dirt cheap (excuse the pun) from The Warehouse and save on growing time. For weeks we've used my home grown lettuces. The brocolli was a collosal failure with flowerheads that started to seed before they were the size of a good mouthful. But the capsicums look promising and the spring onions are good.
Yet I think growing stuff is generally a life phase. You can't help but notice it's mostly older people who hang out in garden centres. I've a standing order in with my husband to stop me when I start talking plants and veges. It's just too boring a topic of conversation. And once you start getting obsessive about it, like all hobbies, it can cost a fortune. Before you know it you're hankering after a greenhouse.
So it isn't necessarily the best budgeting advice to give to someone on a benefit. Market produce, if getting to one is feasible, is probably more cost-effective. Besides which, growing stuff out of sheer necessity might take away the pleasure, with experiments and failures too costly.
And let's be realistic. Vege gardens require two things; discipline and optimism. I recall a 'client' from my volunteering days. A sole mother of two whose major battle was mental. She was depressed and as low on motivation as I have ever witnessed. A kind church goer put in a wonderful vege garden for her. Spent hours digging over and preparing the ground. Tended to it while things got going. But I think a falling-out between them ensued and the garden went to wrack and ruin thereafter.
Gardening is like anything else in life. You've got to want to do it. And the problem with non bona fide beneficiaries is there's a long list of things that they just don't want to do and a very short list of things they do.
The trouble with the way Laws approaches the beneficiary problem is that he thinks he can make them like him. I used to think that. That I could make people see the world through my eyes; see the opportunities, experience the satisfaction of a job well done, look forward to tomorrow. But the potential for that to happen is too often destroyed by being locked in the benefit system.
I'm sorry. Here I am going into my 8th year of blogging still saying the same thing. It's welfare and the associated mentality that's the underlying problem. The other symptoms - Laws identifies poor parenting - generally stem from it.
Thursday, January 03, 2013
Cato on the fiscal cliff sidestep
Here's a cut and paste from Cato. Quick and easy read:
Grading the Fiscal Cliff Deal: Terrible, but Could Be Worse
The faux drama in Washington is finally over. The misfits in Washington reached a deal on the fiscal cliff.
Republicans and Democrats managed to come together and decide that they should get a bigger slice of what the American people earn. Gee, what a surprise.
First, the good news:
…
…
Oh, wait, there isn’t any.
Now for the bad news.
That being said, I was expecting the final outcome to be even worse, so this deal almost seems like a relief.
Sort
of like knowing that you were going to have your arm amputated, but
then finding out that at least you’ll get some anesthetic. You’re not
happy about the outcome, but you’re relieved that it won’t be as bad as
you thought it would be.
But let’s not delude ourselves. This deal is not good for the economy. It doesn’t do anything to cap the burden of government spending. It doesn’t reform entitlement programs.
And we may even lose the sequester, the provision that was included in the 2011 debt limit that would have slightly reduced the growth of government over the next 10 years.
What a dismal start to 2013.
Republicans and Democrats managed to come together and decide that they should get a bigger slice of what the American people earn. Gee, what a surprise.
First, the good news:
…
…
Oh, wait, there isn’t any.
Now for the bad news.
- The top tax rate will increase to 39.6 percent for entrepreneurs, investors, small business owners, and other “rich” taxpayers making more than $400,000 ($450,000 for married couples). This is Obama’s big victory. He gets his class-warfare trophy.
- The double tax on dividends and capital gains climbs from 15 percent to 20 percent (23.8 percent if you include the Obamacare tax on investment income).
- The death tax rate is boosted from 35 percent to 40 percent (which doesn’t sound like a big step in the wrong direction until you remember it was 0 percent in 2010).
- The alternative minimum tax will still exist, though it will be “patched” to protect as many as 30 million households from being swept into this surreal parallel tax system that requires people to use a second method of calculating their taxes – with the government getting the greatest possible amount.
- Unemployment benefits are extended, ensnaring more Americans in joblessness.
- Medicare spending is increased as part of a “doc fix” to increase reimbursement payments for providers.
That being said, I was expecting the final outcome to be even worse, so this deal almost seems like a relief.
But let’s not delude ourselves. This deal is not good for the economy. It doesn’t do anything to cap the burden of government spending. It doesn’t reform entitlement programs.
And we may even lose the sequester, the provision that was included in the 2011 debt limit that would have slightly reduced the growth of government over the next 10 years.
What a dismal start to 2013.
Wednesday, January 02, 2013
Why did John Key change his mind?
What will be happening with welfare in 2013?
The major event that springs to mind is changes to the names of all main benefits. I still consider this a major waste of time and resources. And in August 2008, before John Key became Prime Minister, so did he:
Well actually in July 2013 National will be making those changes:
Just for a moment reflect on the ongoing problems that the government has had with their IT data systems - ACC, Education, Work and Income and Corrections. 300,000 plus people will have to be recategorised and transferred from one benefit to another. The data recording systems all change; the continuity of data will be lost. There's a Census running this year. Information about income sources will be collected in February which by July will be meaningless. There will be confusion, challenges from people unhappy with their new categorisation, and given the teacher salary debacle, it wouldn't surprise if benefits go under/over or un-paid.
It's all going to distract from what WINZ should be concentrating on. Getting people into jobs.
The major event that springs to mind is changes to the names of all main benefits. I still consider this a major waste of time and resources. And in August 2008, before John Key became Prime Minister, so did he:
Labour's pursuit of a "single core benefit" has ended in a complete farce. The different benefit types will still exist, and will be different from each other, but will all be simply called "income support". The Labour Government is going to issue a directive telling case managers and government officials that they are forbidden from using use terms such as "DPB" and "invalids benefit".
Ruth Dyson has one opinion about this. She says this will "remove the stereotyped language and bureaucracy of a bygone era [and] will ensure that Work and Income responds to people as individuals rather than as categories".
I have another opinion. I say that is a load of politically correct rubbish, it will waste money in rewriting everything, and it will not help beneficiaries in a single way. National will not be making those changes.
Well actually in July 2013 National will be making those changes:
Three new benefit types will replace the seven current benefit categories, in addition to the new Youth Payment and Young Parent Payment introduced in August. The new categories included in this Bill are:
• Jobseeker Support for those actively seeking and available for work
• Sole Parent Support for sole parents with children under 14 years
• Supported Living Payment for people significantly restricted by sickness, injury or disability.
Just for a moment reflect on the ongoing problems that the government has had with their IT data systems - ACC, Education, Work and Income and Corrections. 300,000 plus people will have to be recategorised and transferred from one benefit to another. The data recording systems all change; the continuity of data will be lost. There's a Census running this year. Information about income sources will be collected in February which by July will be meaningless. There will be confusion, challenges from people unhappy with their new categorisation, and given the teacher salary debacle, it wouldn't surprise if benefits go under/over or un-paid.
It's all going to distract from what WINZ should be concentrating on. Getting people into jobs.
Tuesday, January 01, 2013
Ashley Mundee - a life worth living
By coincidence I had backed the horse Ashley Mundee was riding on December 30 so was watching the race. Elleaye was around mid-field when he suddenly went down. I thought he'd broken down but later learned he'd clipped heels with another horse. It was a horrible spectacle watching the jockey go under the hooves of those following and a further jockey fall from her mount. I drew a very sharp intake and must have made some sort of sound because the dog start barking.
When I heard she had later died I shed tears for the sheer misery it will cause her family and friends for the rest of their lives. What I can't get out of my head is whether, as her mother, I would want to watch the footage of Ashley before the race. Milling around behind the gates, happy and chatting with the other jockeys and handlers as the horses loaded. Because that's what I would want imprinted in my mind. The pleasure and pride she would have taken in her abilities; the sheer exhilaration of riding along on the back of an animal reaching speeds of 50 mph; the wonder of getting paid for what you love doing most.
Her life was cut short but what a life it was.
When I heard she had later died I shed tears for the sheer misery it will cause her family and friends for the rest of their lives. What I can't get out of my head is whether, as her mother, I would want to watch the footage of Ashley before the race. Milling around behind the gates, happy and chatting with the other jockeys and handlers as the horses loaded. Because that's what I would want imprinted in my mind. The pleasure and pride she would have taken in her abilities; the sheer exhilaration of riding along on the back of an animal reaching speeds of 50 mph; the wonder of getting paid for what you love doing most.
Her life was cut short but what a life it was.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Hauraki became crap
New breakfast host Martin Devlin says Radio Hauraki is "crap".
It's been crap since they dumped Nick, Deano and Mel from the morning slot. They were genuinely funny and ran some great competitions like 'Scar Wars Wednesday' which asked listeners to ring in and describe how they got their worst scar. That resulted in outrageous tales like testes being caught in girls' bicycle chain as a child and a whole host of strange down on the farm antics often related by not very bright people. Driving the kids to Uni and high school we'd often laugh till we cried. The music was what you'd expect on Hauraki but the in-between stuff was better. Then sometime during the middle of the year the threesome vanished.
So what to listen to? In Wellington The Breeze is so PC and safe, even though Sam and I can tolerate their play list, we can't stomach the simpering DJs. Think Wiggles. One morning we were behind a bus advertising The Sound. So we switched and are permanently parked there. The music is brilliant and they promote themselves as "no silly BS chatter" although Geoff Bryant's news-reading interjections are often very wry. So, no, I won't be tuning in to Hauraki even out of curiosity.
(Though it has to be said, if I'm by myself of a morning, walking the dogs, I might have Mike Hosking in my ear.)
Devlin says, "It's bitterly competitive, and there's a lot of money at stake, and there's a lot of pride and ego at stake."
Somehow trying not to lose money and not to lose face don't seem like very good starting point to me. So a New Year's prediction. Devlin won't save Hauraki.
It's been crap since they dumped Nick, Deano and Mel from the morning slot. They were genuinely funny and ran some great competitions like 'Scar Wars Wednesday' which asked listeners to ring in and describe how they got their worst scar. That resulted in outrageous tales like testes being caught in girls' bicycle chain as a child and a whole host of strange down on the farm antics often related by not very bright people. Driving the kids to Uni and high school we'd often laugh till we cried. The music was what you'd expect on Hauraki but the in-between stuff was better. Then sometime during the middle of the year the threesome vanished.
So what to listen to? In Wellington The Breeze is so PC and safe, even though Sam and I can tolerate their play list, we can't stomach the simpering DJs. Think Wiggles. One morning we were behind a bus advertising The Sound. So we switched and are permanently parked there. The music is brilliant and they promote themselves as "no silly BS chatter" although Geoff Bryant's news-reading interjections are often very wry. So, no, I won't be tuning in to Hauraki even out of curiosity.
(Though it has to be said, if I'm by myself of a morning, walking the dogs, I might have Mike Hosking in my ear.)
Devlin says, "It's bitterly competitive, and there's a lot of money at stake, and there's a lot of pride and ego at stake."
Somehow trying not to lose money and not to lose face don't seem like very good starting point to me. So a New Year's prediction. Devlin won't save Hauraki.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
John Key finished?
That's what Matt McCarten says in his Herald column today:
All this prediction reveals is McCarten's left bias and according wishfulness. Let's try and analyse Key's chances objectively.
1/ Who else?
Like it or not most New Zealanders are middle-of-the-road moderates. When it comes to matters political, they think at a superficial level employing emotion over reason. But occasionally the 'wisdom of the masses' asserts itself as when Green co-leader Russell Norman suggested printing money. Without understanding economics too deeply people just instinctively knew this was a stupid idea. Sometimes good ideas are the most simple ones - but not in this case. And people aren't going to accept a leader with radical ideas, even sound ones. That's why Key doesn't do radical.
Neither will people accept a leader with NO ideas. Well, to be fair, no new ideas. And anyway, Labour is too ramshackle at present to give swing-voters any confidence that they can govern.
2/ Better the devil you know. Key is still in this ballpark. When Clark went, she'd stepped outside it. People were saying any devil is better than her. National has upset large groups of people. Teachers for example. But mainly they have upset the leftists which is their job.
They have pissed off people like me in many ways BUT not enough that I would vote for more redistribution of wealth from the productive to the non-productive; more punishment of effort and reward for fecklessness; more economic regulation and welfare reform reversal.
3/ Key appeals to both males and females. That sort of appeal is reasonably rare.
4/ Key is still looking like a solid family man. Also reasonably rare and something we admire I think.
5/ Key has a winning leadership style. While McCarten says Key is weak at managing his ministers, the other side is, he doesn't over-manage. My preference is for the second style. Most of us want a boss who gives us space and respect.
So barring startling developments - Labour recruiting Richie McCaw as a potential future leader - voters are going to go into the 2014 election prepared to accept the status quo. The reality is most people's lives are ticking over satisfactorily despite the recession and they will entrust another three years of management to National.
This year has finished him. His evasiveness over Kim Dotcom, his shonkiness over the SkyCity casino deal to give more pokies for a convention centre, his weakness managing his ministers and his forgetfulness on details of his job is starting to form real doubts that he's on top of his job. We like nice guys but we expect them to know what they're doing. This is the year he became a two-term prime minister.
All this prediction reveals is McCarten's left bias and according wishfulness. Let's try and analyse Key's chances objectively.
1/ Who else?
Like it or not most New Zealanders are middle-of-the-road moderates. When it comes to matters political, they think at a superficial level employing emotion over reason. But occasionally the 'wisdom of the masses' asserts itself as when Green co-leader Russell Norman suggested printing money. Without understanding economics too deeply people just instinctively knew this was a stupid idea. Sometimes good ideas are the most simple ones - but not in this case. And people aren't going to accept a leader with radical ideas, even sound ones. That's why Key doesn't do radical.
Neither will people accept a leader with NO ideas. Well, to be fair, no new ideas. And anyway, Labour is too ramshackle at present to give swing-voters any confidence that they can govern.
2/ Better the devil you know. Key is still in this ballpark. When Clark went, she'd stepped outside it. People were saying any devil is better than her. National has upset large groups of people. Teachers for example. But mainly they have upset the leftists which is their job.
They have pissed off people like me in many ways BUT not enough that I would vote for more redistribution of wealth from the productive to the non-productive; more punishment of effort and reward for fecklessness; more economic regulation and welfare reform reversal.
3/ Key appeals to both males and females. That sort of appeal is reasonably rare.
4/ Key is still looking like a solid family man. Also reasonably rare and something we admire I think.
5/ Key has a winning leadership style. While McCarten says Key is weak at managing his ministers, the other side is, he doesn't over-manage. My preference is for the second style. Most of us want a boss who gives us space and respect.
So barring startling developments - Labour recruiting Richie McCaw as a potential future leader - voters are going to go into the 2014 election prepared to accept the status quo. The reality is most people's lives are ticking over satisfactorily despite the recession and they will entrust another three years of management to National.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
When Masterton went dry
When there is no current news, perusing papers from the past is sometimes entertaining. The Truth had the best articles. Here's one about what happened when Masterton "entered into the land of Wowserdom".
People drank even more as secret bingeing occurred causing "absence from work...lying and deceit..."
The writer also describes the hypocrites who voted for the "no" licence status in order to line their own pockets through sly-grogging.
Charmingly written. And a lesson for today's prohibitionists.
People drank even more as secret bingeing occurred causing "absence from work...lying and deceit..."
"There is more now solid and systematic 'silent' sosselling going on now than ever before in the history of the district."
The writer also describes the hypocrites who voted for the "no" licence status in order to line their own pockets through sly-grogging.
Charmingly written. And a lesson for today's prohibitionists.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Meerkats breed at Xmas
It's been a somewhat strange Xmas here. The weather has see-sawed between intense heat and considerable chill, for the first time we put up a fake tree and it didn't seem to matter and my meerkats bred. When I went up the hill on Xmas morning I found two babies hiding amongst the long grasses I've planted.
But the highlights have been the generosity of my son spending all of his first ever pay-packet on his father to buy him something very special, and my daughter presenting me with a handmade teddy bear. For some reason he is 'Trent'. He's made from linen and some other brown fabric and is just gorgeous. The only thing in life I get sentimental over is my family and my few close friends. Sadly one called for help on Boxing Day night. Drunk, suicidal and lost - literally. This is someone I've only ever seen stoicism and humour from. I tried to talk her up and we cried together, fat lot of use that I am. Then she stopped answering my repeated calls to her mobile. But I knew she was receiving texts. Eventually she told her sister what bus she had taken which might indicate what park she was in. Her family got her home but I can hardly finish happily by saying all's well that ends well. Underlying troubles need to be resolved.
A trip to hospital to visit another elderly friend who'd suffered a stroke, a visit to an old folks home to leave a package for an ex neighbour who won't see me (or anyone else) and I was most grateful to return to my 'normal' happy home.
I hope you are all enjoying Xmas. For many it's not a happy time at all. Christmas is for copers. Thank your lucky stars if you are one.
But the highlights have been the generosity of my son spending all of his first ever pay-packet on his father to buy him something very special, and my daughter presenting me with a handmade teddy bear. For some reason he is 'Trent'. He's made from linen and some other brown fabric and is just gorgeous. The only thing in life I get sentimental over is my family and my few close friends. Sadly one called for help on Boxing Day night. Drunk, suicidal and lost - literally. This is someone I've only ever seen stoicism and humour from. I tried to talk her up and we cried together, fat lot of use that I am. Then she stopped answering my repeated calls to her mobile. But I knew she was receiving texts. Eventually she told her sister what bus she had taken which might indicate what park she was in. Her family got her home but I can hardly finish happily by saying all's well that ends well. Underlying troubles need to be resolved.
A trip to hospital to visit another elderly friend who'd suffered a stroke, a visit to an old folks home to leave a package for an ex neighbour who won't see me (or anyone else) and I was most grateful to return to my 'normal' happy home.
I hope you are all enjoying Xmas. For many it's not a happy time at all. Christmas is for copers. Thank your lucky stars if you are one.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Truth column December 20
(My December 20 Truth column isn't on-line yet no doubt due to Xmas break. Below in full.)
Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia has announced she'll retire in 2014. She'd previously publicised leaving parliament in 2011, so this latest promise might be taken with a pinch of salt. The decision to exchange a ministerial salary for Super must be tough.
Nevertheless it's perhaps timely to look back on a couple of Turia's more interesting statements. When TV3's John Campbell asked what she meant about welfare being bad for Maori she replied, "We’re talking Maori unemployed. We’re not talking about Maori women on benefits."
At a reproductive health conference, about the high Maori teenage birth rate being framed as problematic, she said she was "intolerant of the excessive focus on controlling our fertility...Maybe one of our policy goals in the Maori Party should be to go forth and multiply."
In 2010, 46 percent of Maori females aged 20 - 29 were dependent on welfare - mainly the DPB. Tariana does not view this as being "bad". By implication, she doesn't associate over-dependence on welfare with Maori children's poor health and educational outcomes or heightened risk of abuse and neglect.
When CYF manager of Maori Strategy, Peter Douglas suggested at-risk Maori children be removed beyond whanau, Turia responded, "I am totally opposed to children being raised outside whakapapa links.” Being Maori, and growing the Maori population count, matter more to Turia than children's prospects.
She's previously complained that Maori are the only ethnicity in New Zealand that cannot grow their share of the population through immigration. (Perhaps if the 100,000+ Maori living overseas weren't beleaguered by the treaty and tribalism at every turn, they'd come back.)
It'd be fascinating to know how Turia views her parliamentary career. A tale of great achievement? Personally, I'm struggling to identify any major gains for Maori attributable to her particular ideology - racism. If a successor can't be found, and the Maori Party disappears, good. New Zealand does not need racially divisive politics.
Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia has announced she'll retire in 2014. She'd previously publicised leaving parliament in 2011, so this latest promise might be taken with a pinch of salt. The decision to exchange a ministerial salary for Super must be tough.
Nevertheless it's perhaps timely to look back on a couple of Turia's more interesting statements. When TV3's John Campbell asked what she meant about welfare being bad for Maori she replied, "We’re talking Maori unemployed. We’re not talking about Maori women on benefits."
At a reproductive health conference, about the high Maori teenage birth rate being framed as problematic, she said she was "intolerant of the excessive focus on controlling our fertility...Maybe one of our policy goals in the Maori Party should be to go forth and multiply."
In 2010, 46 percent of Maori females aged 20 - 29 were dependent on welfare - mainly the DPB. Tariana does not view this as being "bad". By implication, she doesn't associate over-dependence on welfare with Maori children's poor health and educational outcomes or heightened risk of abuse and neglect.
When CYF manager of Maori Strategy, Peter Douglas suggested at-risk Maori children be removed beyond whanau, Turia responded, "I am totally opposed to children being raised outside whakapapa links.” Being Maori, and growing the Maori population count, matter more to Turia than children's prospects.
She's previously complained that Maori are the only ethnicity in New Zealand that cannot grow their share of the population through immigration. (Perhaps if the 100,000+ Maori living overseas weren't beleaguered by the treaty and tribalism at every turn, they'd come back.)
It'd be fascinating to know how Turia views her parliamentary career. A tale of great achievement? Personally, I'm struggling to identify any major gains for Maori attributable to her particular ideology - racism. If a successor can't be found, and the Maori Party disappears, good. New Zealand does not need racially divisive politics.
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