Saturday, April 12, 2014

More dubious inequality claims


Research from the NZ Council of Christian Social Services (or the journalist who wrote the article)  reported in the NZ Herald, relies on 2007 - 2010 data (see below)
The OECD report says household income in New Zealand has suffered a "large decline" since 2008 - NZ was put in the same basket for income as Mexico, Spain, Estonia and Greece.

But our own latest household income data shows rises since:  
 





  And the rises are across all income bands:

 



Still as the journalist was happy to rely on outdated OECD data I wonder why he didn't include this one?

Because between 2007 and 2010 inequality actually reduced and that doesn't fit with the story (which just highlights the inherent nonsense in inequality data. If the rich take a hit - surely what the envyists want - and the poorest stay on CPI/wage proofed state incomes, inequality reduces.)

Friday, April 11, 2014

Quote of the day

Perhaps one for economist/ autobiographer of the moment, Don Brash:

Generally speaking, only simple conceptions can grip the mind of a nation. An idea that is clear and precise even though false will always have greater power in the world than an idea that is true but complex.
 
– Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America [1835-1840]
Hat-tip FFF

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Typical Maori Mum meets Royals at babies day out


"The families were selected to represent a cross section of the growing diversity of young families seen by Plunket in New Zealand. Each family has a child as close to the age of Prince George as possible."


The single parent selected to meet the Royals was Maori. Well chosen for fair representation of family types. I wonder if she was on welfare?

80 percent of Maori births are outside of marriage
46 percent of the Maori female population aged 20-29 relies on welfare

Anyway, good for her. She probably presented a gorgeous baby for the cameras.

"Half of two is less than one"

This headline intrigued me. Go read the accompanying piece. Right to the end so you can see who wrote it:

Half of two is less than one when it comes to families


There is a devastating demoralising disease sweeping the world at a drastic rate, and children in our generation have a 42% chance of being infected with it.
This disease will affect almost every aspect of a child's life.
There is no cure, no treatment available, but there is a preventive.
The question is, will you try to stop it?
This disease will give a child a 48% higher possibility of smoking.
One in four children that get the disease will drop out of high school.
Out of the three in four kids who stay in school, 40% of them will not graduate by the age of 20.

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Silver pot and strawberry

As well as commissions, I've been doing some palette-knife oil on canvas still lifes and hanging them on the gallery wall. We have a corner shop next door which sells curios so I pick up something that appeals, like this silver pot, and set it up and paint it over the course of the day. The tricky aspect is the changing light and reflections. In the end it's a loose fabrication.



Denied justice but not financial assistance?

From Radio New Zealand:
The Government is rejecting suggestions Maori are being unfairly targetted in the police or corrections systems the Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell has described as institutionally racist.
A visiting United Nations delegation says the Government needs to investigate why a systemic bias against Maori is evident in the country's criminal justice system.
The delegation, which reports to the UN Human Rights Council, says any bias against Maori leading to their incarceration more than other New Zealanders constitutes arbitrary detention and is illegal under international law.

If half of New Zealand's prison population being Maori is due to "systemic bias" against them, is a third of the benefit  population being Maori systemic bias towards them?


CPI change since 2008

Statistics NZ has a great new tool for depicting CPI change across sectors, by quarters.

You can take the bottom rule and slide back to Q4 2008 to see how much change has occurred. Overall prices were 10.8 percent higher in Dec 2013 than Dec 2008.

The biggest increase is in Alcohol and Tobacco, up by a whopping 27.1% and I bet most of that is tobacco.

My line of work - Recreation and Culture - down by 3.3%. I'm not surprised. I'm charging less for commissions than I was and still doing it tough.

Other big rises were in Education (25.3%), Health (20.5%) Transport (17.6%) and Housing and Household Utilities (14.8%). Interesting that two areas dominated by government show largest increases.

Other decreases were in Communication (-17.6%), Household contents and services (-2.2%), and Clothing and Footwear (-0.8%).

What Trade Me job listings reveal

Trade me does an analysis of the 50,000 plus jobs listed in the first quarter of 2014. Good to see government job listings decreasing.

There's that manufacturing crisis showing up again - not. A 35.8% increase compared to the same quarter in 2013. Southland looks to be booming with a 41.3% increase in listings and despite the fewer government listings Wellington is also showing a good increase at 25.5%.

Something else I noticed was that the average rates of pay for the lowest paid jobs (eg caregiver $33,477)  are all around that average benefit payment I mentioned yesterday - $33,384  for a sole parent with two children living in South Auckland (granted Auckland is slightly higher due to a higher accommodation supplement).


Trade Me Jobs employment survey results: Jan – Mar 2014
1. Listings growth by job: Q1/2014
Job Year-on-year %change Q1/2014 vs Q1/2013
Accounting 2.5
Agriculture, fishing & forestry 34.0
Banking, finance & insurance - 9.7
Construction & architecture 26.9
Customer service 22.6
Education 22.0
Engineering 6.5
Government & council - 18.9
Healthcare 6.5
Hospitality & tourism 27.1
HR & recruitment 45.7
IT 13.3
Legal - 18.0
Manufacturing & operations 35.8
Marketing, media & communications 29.4
Office & administration 16.0
Other - 5.5
Property 9.9
Retail 20.8
Sales 8.5
Science & technology 17.1
Trades & services 40.4
Transport & logistics 28.4
Overall 21.0

2. Average rates of pay by job (full-time jobs only): Q1/2014

Highest paid Pay rate ($)
1 Doctors & specialists 147,928
2 IT architects 134,547
3 IT sales & pre-sales 130,174
4 IT project managers 130,079
5 IT managers 128,309

Lowest paid Pay rate ($)
1 Kitchen staff 33,322
2 Caregiving 33,477
3 Reception & front desk 34,430
4 Labourers 35,558
5 Retail assistants 35,986
3. Listings growth by region for Q1/2014
Region % change vs Q1 2013
Auckland 20.1
Bay of Plenty 24.1
Canterbury 23.9
Gisborne 3.8
Hawke’s Bay 3.2
Manawatu/Wanganui 7.1
Marlborough 12.8
Nelson/Tasman 16.1
Northland 10.1
Otago 19.0
Southland 41.3
Taranaki 15.8
Waikato 20.1
Wellington 25.5
West Coast 22.8
4. Average rates of pay by region (full-time jobs only): Q1/2014

Highest paid Pay rate ($)
1 Auckland City 72,302
2 Wellington 70,234
3 New Plymouth 61,143
4 Buller 59,742
5 Waikato 57,616

Lowest paid Pay rate ($)
1 Porirua 44,483
2 Horowhenua 44,968
3 Rodney 45,696
4 Upper Hutt 45,736
5 Hurunui 46,125
NB: Segments with less than 50 jobs excluded.

Monday, April 07, 2014

Jamie Whyte challenges David Cunliffe

This idea appeals to me:

My challenge to David Cunliffe


Jamie Whyte
ACT Leader
My challenge to David Cunliffe
The Labour Party has announced a return to “industrial policy”. If elected, they will decide which businesses and sectors of the economy will deliver the highest returns and promote them in various ways – most obviously, by subsidising them with taxpayers’ money.
This policy effectively replaces the decisions of private investors with the decisions of Labour Party politicians. It would be a foolish policy if Labour Party politicians were not better investors than the private investors they will replace.
So, before asking people to vote for the policy, shouldn’t David Cunliffe prove that he and his colleagues really are better investors than those who do it professionally?

More

Overseas trips defended with spurious claim

Dear Editor

Teresa Homan writes (Letters, April 7) the Minister for Social Development can't seriously expect us to believe that a sole parent beneficiary can save for an overseas trip on a  benefit of "$299.45 a week." Except no sole parent receives that amount. There is a further payment for each child, and usually a rental subsidy or accommodation supplement. Late last year, according to the Beehive, "An average sole parent with two children under thirteen, living in South Auckland would receive around $642 on benefit, including accommodation supplement and a minimal extra allowance for costs." More than twice the figure Homan quotes.

And if some beneficiaries "are lucky enough to have a family member pay for their trip" perhaps the family could be doing more to assist with food, power and rent instead of leaving it to the faceless collective. There are plenty of taxpayers supporting the benefit system who can't afford passports, let alone an overseas trip.

Sunday, April 06, 2014

Maori child abuse intervention - "...we are not doing it the right way"

 In a strange coincidence I wrote the following on Friday but hadn't yet published it. My comments are in orange:
 

This report from the Maori Affairs Committee following its Inquiry into the Determinants of Wellbeing for Tamariki Māori was released in December 2013:

Child maltreatment and abuse
One issue that we must address is the high rate of maltreatment and abuse suffered by tamariki Māori. Child maltreatment has a number of contributing factors. Poverty, low education levels, unemployment, unstable home life, and parental ill-health can all increase the risk to tamariki Māori. 

No mention of long-term welfare dependence or drug/alcohol abuse 
Maltreatment can take many forms, ranging from neglect and lack of care to physical, emotional, sexual, and mental abuse. Tamariki Māori who suffer maltreatment can experience many adverse consequences, the impact of which may be felt for many years.
Our specialist adviser told us that in 2009/10 Child, Youth and Family received around 125,000 notifications; half of these required further action. Our specialist adviser also told us that about 46 percent of CYFS clients are Māori.

The level of disproportion is decades old.

Child, Youth and Family does not generally do intervention casework itself; it provides on-going intensive intervention to only about the worst 5 percent of abuse cases, as it lacks the resourcing to follow everything up quickly and effectively.
We heard that New Zealand has a robust Care and Protection Framework, but effective robust programmes, particularly small residential programmes, are lacking. There are few holistic whānau homes for the care and protection of vulnerable tamariki Māori. We recognise that Child, Youth and Family care is not responsible for strengthening or healing the whānau. However, we consider its role to be a matter requiring further investigation. In 2011 the Families Commission found that of the 4,238 tamariki Māori in out-of-home care in 2010, 45 percent also had siblings who had previously been removed from their parents or caregivers by Child, Youth and Family. Fifty-two percent of the tamariki Māori in Child,Youth and Family out-of-home care were Māori, 

???

and of the tamariki Māori affected by custody orders in 2010, just under half (45 percent) had had a sibling previously removed.
These figures indicate that when we intervene on behalf of the most vulnerable tamariki Māori, we are not doing it in the right way.

These sorts of reports are far from 'ground-breaking' yet not much changes. In 1988, 26 years ago, the Daybreak report from the Maori Perspective Advisory Committee on Social Welfare found, regarding the Children and Young Person's Act 1974. 


The Committee considered a substantial ideological change necessary if the Act 
were to to adequately cater to Maori needs. It did not therefore propose specific 
amendments but urged that the revision of the Act be shaped around the principles 
that follow.
And that revision happened. It was replaced by CYPF Act in 1989. Still the problems
persist. But back to the latest report


Poverty is a major barrier to the wellbeing of tamariki Māori, and it
often has a domino effect in all areas of a tamaiti’s life. We believe that
moving whānau out of poverty will benefit tamariki and allow whānau to
build a strong foundation for a positive future.

In the end Maori cannot go on pleading and blaming poverty. It's just not a robust excuse for abusing or neglecting children. I find this report (as much as I have read) highly disheartening.

Anyway the government's response to the paper was released on Friday. They rejected a specific  recommendation regarding poverty:


Recommendation 46
Improve the adequacy of benefits and incomes for whānau without paid work to ensure the wellbeing of their tamariki.
Response
: Noted
The Government’s primary strategy for lifting incomes and improving
outcomes for vulnerable New Zealanders is to promote social mobility through paid employment driven by economic growth, while ensuring that NewZealand’s social security safety net continues to support people who cannot support themselves. The focus is on addressing the long-
term consequencesof poverty, and improving material wellbeing through employment.New Zealand spends a considerable amount to support the incomes of beneficiaries and other low-income New Zealanders.
In the 2013/14 financial year, over $10 billion was forecast to be spent on welfare benefits, of which Māori makeup approximately one third of recipients. In addition, there is a considerable spend on other support that reduces demand on the family budget through subsidies or direct provision (for example, free primary healthcare for younger children, and the Warm Up New Zealand home insulation programme). These initiatives, together with the direct income support assistance, help reduce material hardship among families with children.
Now today I see a new finding from the Christchurch Health and Development Study has just been published:
 

Abstract

Objective:The present study examined the extent to which childhood socio-economic status (SES) could account for differences in adult psychosocial outcomes between Māori and non-Māori individuals in a birth cohort of more than 1000 individuals studied to age 30.Methods:Data were gathered on three measures of childhood SES (family SES, family living standards, family income) and adult psychosocial outcomes including mental health, substance use, criminal offending, and education/welfare dependence outcomes, as part of a longitudinal study of a New Zealand birth cohort (the Christchurch Health and Development Study).Results:Those reporting Māori ethnicity had significantly (p < 0.0001) poorer scores on the three measures of childhood SES, with estimates of Cohen's d indicating a moderate effect size. Māori cohort members also had significantly (p < 0.05) greater rates of adverse psychosocial outcomes in adulthood. Controlling for childhood SES reduced the magnitude of the ethnic differences in psychosocial outcomes, but did not fully explain the differences between Māori and non-Māori. Adjustment for childhood SES had the strongest effect on education/welfare dependence, but weaker effects on mental health, substance use, and criminal offending.Conclusions:Improvements in SES among Māori in New Zealand may, to some extent, ameliorate the long standing disparities in psychosocial well-being between Māori and non-Māori. However, efforts to improve Māori well-being will require an approach that moves beyond a sole focus on rectifying socio-economic disadvantage (my emphasis).

The science is telling us that something beyond (or additional) to poverty is causing poorer adult outcomes for too many Maori children.

Friday, April 04, 2014

Why does the support stop short at overseas holidays?

One aspect of this fuss over beneficiaries travelling overseas bugs me. According to the DomPost:

In a lot of cases it was family and friends paying for beneficiaries to travel for a holiday, Bennett said.

What do the family and friends think?

That it's OK for them to pay for holidays but the taxpayer can fork out for food, power, rent etc. I thought social security was supposed to be the last port of call (excuse the pun). Based on Paula Bennett's observation, there are probably a good many beneficiaires with families who could give them a great deal more practical and financial support but it's neither convenient nor comfortable to do so. Easier to leave it to the faceless collective.

Sue Moroney scrambles to find a problem

Have a listen to Larry Williams interviewing Labour's welfare spokesperson Sue Moroney (follows Paula Bennett) about Labour's gripe with people having benefits stopped because they have gone overseas. It's a very poor show on her part. And this is a minister-in-waiting.

A classic example of an opposition that has and would do exactly the same thing and can't actually find a problem so tries to manufacture some. Sometimes it would be wiser to just shut up.