Wellington takes a hammering (though it's not evident from MSD's calculations)

My blog posts often result from a question popping into my head.

In this case, given all the gloom and doom around public servant lay-offs in the capital, I wondered, "How big is the growth in Jobseeker benefit receipt in the Wellington region and how does it compare to other regions?"

To answer this I accessed the latest Jobseeker Support data at MSD. Their chart calculates the percentage of the working-age population (aged 18-64) receiving Jobseeker Support in each region and compares Sept 1,2023 to Aug 30, 2024:

 

(Left click on image to enlarge)

That's interesting, I thought. The year-on-year growth (final column) is highest in Auckland, Central and Waikato. Comparatively, Wellington isn't faring that badly.

But hang on. To get a reliable percentage, a reliable fraction is required. The denominator (middle  column) is the 'Estimated 18-64 resident NZ population'.

Note that the chart purportedly uses June 2023 for both calculations - 'Reported week' and 'Same week last year.'

Yet Wellington and Central have changed population numbers - Wellington's increased while Central's decreased. So the column headings are at least partially incorrect.

The official published numbers are totally unreliable.

To answer my question, I can however set up my own graph showing absolute numbers on Jobseeker Support by region, and the percentage change from base, year-on-year. At 27 percent annual growth, much higher than any other region, Wellington does not look pretty. But neither does Auckland, in terms of absolute growth:

Still, we have been in much tougher times. In June 1993 for instance, 200,000 people were reliant on the equivalent benefit but in a population around 2 million lighter.

That isn’t much consolation to those losing their jobs today but let’s hope that the unavoidable correction to Labour’s six years of over-cooking the economy with borrowed money doesn’t come with too much more pain.