Saturday, February 20, 2021

Difference between Otago and Gisborne is one less child per woman

The falling Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was the subject of a report I wrote about 18 months ago. 

Now it's dropped even further. Statistics NZ describes it as, "NZ's lowest birth rate on record". 

But the regional variability is quite striking:

There are 1.38 births per woman in Otago versus 2.33 in Gisborne.

Higher fertility regions tend to correlate to higher Maori populations (the Maori birth rate remains higher than non-Maori).

But the four regions at the bottom of the rankings cover the four main cities where educated, career women reside.

The uniformly falling TFRs across the developed world are the result of women having choice (which is the result of freedom and prosperity).


oneblokesview said...

I would add that the extension of the welfare state adds to the discrepancy.
Not just Maori but low Socio Economic Families.

GCMC said...

Any idea of the difference between Muslim women & the rest of NZ...?

Lindsay Mitchell said...

No. Maternity data doesn't record mother's religion. Indian/Asian birthrates can be found at the Report on Maternity web tool but ethnicity is no indication of religious belief. Neither is there any requirement to state mother's religion when registering a birth with Internal Affairs.

Roj Blake said...

It is a fact that low Socio Economic Families tend to have more children, but that also happens in not New Zealand where the safety net is a lot weaker. It isn't about the much-maligned welfare state as it is about poverty, lack of opportunity, and most of all, lack of education.

Not sure why GCMC asks that question (bigotry?), but it is well known that strong religious beliefs tend to correspond with higher birth rates. It isn't just Islam that encourages big families, it is a general trait of all religions.

Lindsay has it right, freedom and education are the keys to women's ability to control fertility. With almost 8 billion of us on the planet, fewer women having fewer children is a good thing. Unless you subscribe to "replacement theory", in which case you don't have a case.

captainofthegate said...

Inverse of housing affordability.

Yay! My house price increased and my retirement is secure.

But why am I so lonely in my dotage? My kids no longer talk to me.

Anonymous said...

What is wrong with having a family? Why are we allowing abortions by the thousands (200K/year in the UK alone)? Why should we worry about the world having 8 billion people when India, Indonesia, most of Asia and Africa don't give a damn? Only white people care about overpopulation. Mostly white people care about the environment. Do you think having less white people on earth is going to be a good thing for the planet and wild life? Think again.