Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Ex Aussie prisoners emulate NZ criminals

Front page headline in DomPost reads,

Third of crims sent home now reoffending

30 percent to be precise. That's entirely predictable.

Pretty much on the rate for those released from NZ prisons. Australian prisons do no better at rehabilitation it would seem.

Additionally, the police say they expect the re-offending rates to "soar".

That, unfortunately, is what recidivism rates do.

It's not until the last sentence of the report that we learn,

"[Amy] Adams said the latest police figures were in line with New Zealand prisoner's general offending rates."

I guess it is easier to get people outraged about the ex-Aussies than our homegrown variety.

(If you wonder why I not infrequently blog about the prison population it's because of the strong correlation with welfare. As described in the latest Taylor Fry report:

"Offenders who have been convicted of a crime and served some type of criminal sentence are heavily over-represented in the welfare population.
· About a quarter of the 2014/15 beneficiary population have had a criminal conviction in their past; for males it is 4 in 10.
One in ten welfare clients has been to prison and one in ten has been convicted of a violence-related crime.
· There is a strong statistical relationship between clients who have been convicted and served a
sentence and long-term benefit receipt.")


Jim Rose said...

Lindsay, is of your data saying that the reoffending rates of New Zealand prisoners and Australian deportees are the same?

If so, it means it does not matter whether you have comprehensive prisoner rehabilitation services and just dump them on a foreign street, their propensity to reoffend is the same.

That is quite an important finding about rehabilitation and risks of reoffending.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Looks like it. I tend towards Greg Newbold's view that while rehab services are not always successful, without them crime would be even worse.