Daily Blog: dishonesty or ignorance?

Mike Treen has written a post at the Daily Blog and called it  

Exclusive: Billions of dollars stolen from the unemployed.

The graph he uses shows the numbers of unemployed (purple line) versus numbers on the unemployment benefit (green line).He claims,

The combined efforts of both National and Labour governments’ punitive policies towards the unemployed seems to have removed over 100,000 people from rightful access to an unemployment benefit.

Is he right?

Let's explore the possible reasons for this picture.

The point at which the lines cross is around 2005 (note he wasn't complaining about the period prior when more people were receiving an unemployment benefit than were apparently unemployed.)

Treen says:

There was also no significant increase in other working age benefits like sickness, invalid or sole parent benefits to account for the missing number of those receiving the unemployment benefit.

In June 2005 there were 120,442 people on a sickness or invalid benefit. By June 2012 the number had grown to 147,548 - an increase of 22.5% or 27,106. I would call that a significant increase.


Who are the unemployed not receiving benefits?

Between 2005 and 2012 (June data) females Living as Married - Unemployed in the Labour Force grew from 14.9 percent to 27.2 percent. Males Living as Married - Unemployed in the Labour Force grew from 12.6 percent to 24.3 percent. People don't usually qualify for unemployment benefits if their partner is still employed (it could be argued they should and I have some sympathy with that view.)

People unemployed short term won't qualify. Taking just those unemployed for 9-13 weeks, the point at which eligibility for UB might kick in - the percentage of all unemployed climbed from 7.7 percent in 2005 to 16.1 in 2012. Percentages unemployed for even shorter periods all increased (StatsNZ Infoshare).

People with savings and investments won't qualify. I can't quantify that possibility but it is quite likely that people who lost employment as a result of the recession may be in this boat.

Lastly though, and probably the most important reason for this development is work-testing (of both beneficiaries and their partners). It's much more extensive now and many more people will have been describing themselves as unemployed while on either a sickness or domestic purposes benefit. They are required to look for and be available for work so are technically unemployed. That was not the case before the reforms. That's the purple line rising since 2010.


In fact, Treen's post shows 148,300 unemployed at September 2013.

What he omits is 126,470 were also on Jobseeker Support at September 2013.

Not such a huge discrepancy after all.

Update Professor Susan St John jumps on the band wagon with:

The growing divergence between the numbers officially unemployed and those getting a benefit are highlighted in Mike Treen’s blog Billions of Dollars Stolen From The Unemployed .   Worryingly the evidence around us suggests that a high price is being paid by those who have been excluded from or pushed out of the benefit system, but are not finding work.

The growing divergence between the numbers officially unemployed and those getting a benefit are highlighted in Mike Treen’s blog - See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/01/31/so-much-for-the-success-of-welfare-reform/#sthash.OoBWrBsI.dpuf

The growing divergence between the numbers officially unemployed and those getting a benefit are highlighted in Mike Treen’s blog Billions of Dollars Stolen From The Unemployed .   Worryingly the evidence around us suggests that a high price is being paid by those who have been excluded from or pushed out of the benefit system, but are not finding work. - See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/01/31/so-much-for-the-success-of-welfare-reform/#sthash.OoBWrBsI.dpuf

The growing divergence between the numbers officially unemployed and those getting a benefit are highlighted in Mike Treen’s blog Billions of Dollars Stolen From The Unemployed .   Worryingly the evidence around us suggests that a high price is being paid by those who have been excluded from or pushed out of the benefit system, but are not finding work. - See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/01/31/so-much-for-the-success-of-welfare-reform/#sthash.OoBWrBsI.dpuf

The growing divergence between the numbers officially unemployed and those getting a benefit are highlighted in Mike Treen’s blog Billions of Dollars Stolen From The Unemployed .   Worryingly the evidence around us suggests that a high price is being paid by those who have been excluded from or pushed out of the benefit system, but are not finding work. - See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/01/31/so-much-for-the-success-of-welfare-reform/#sthash.OoBWrBsI.dpuf