Thursday, December 10, 2015

Correlation between welfare and poor outcomes

Treasury released these graphs yesterday.

What stands out from the above  is that of those considered at 'extreme risk' of poor outcomes 62% are Maori while only 7% are Pasifika. This highlights yet again the ill-advised practice of referring to 'troubled youth' as Polynesians. The Pacific culture has protective factors at work that aren't always present for Maori.

The next stand-out feature (unsurprising) is the very high mental health service use by those at extreme risk.

But also look at the correlation between being on a benefit for 5 or more years (cumulatively between ages 25-34) and being at extreme or high risk of poor outcomes.

Of the total 15-24 population, 25,713 will be on a benefit 5 or more years but not at risk of poor outcomes.  However, 26,698 - a small majority - are at high or extreme risk of poor outcomes.

And their childhoods?

Why anyone wants to resist reforming welfare is beyond me.


Jigsaw said...

The people who are against reforming welfare think that way because to admit that given broadly the same chances in life two people can have vastly different outcomes challenges the whole basis of their political philosophy. Strange when you think about it because these seem to be exactly the same people who claim for humans a common heritage and set of rights and yet support such nonsense as 'co-governance' and 'enhanced democracy' with special rights for Maori. The ability of humans to hold several conflicting ideas at the same time never fails to amaze me.

Redbaiter said...

"The Pacific culture has protective factors at work that aren't always present for Maori."

Interesting statement.

Can we say that these statistics prove that the application of certain "factors" leads to less social disorder/ decline?

One would think therefore that it would be important to latch on to what these factors are and promote them among Maori and perhaps even the rest of the population.

So what are these factors that are present for Pacifica but not for Maori?

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Strong intact families, strong work ethic and religious values.


Brendan McNeill said...

Hi Lindsay

Your generalisations are sound.

Redbaiter said...

"Strong intact families, strong work ethic and religious values."

Oh, Conservatism?

As advocated by those unenlightened bastards who value this country's Judeo-Christian heritage.

Those retrograde bastards who seek to protect marriage and save it from further erosion.

Those lunatic bastards who seek to have children raised by their parents and not the public school system.

Those anti-freedom bastards who seek to diminish the influence of drug and alcohol pushers and a decaying entertainment sector upon their children.

Can't be them Lindsay, they all died out with the dinosaurs.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Conservatives do not have a monopoly on commitment to marriage and work ethic.

Redbaiter said...

Well, I'm damn sure they are more committed to marriage than most Progressives who openly scorn the institution as they scorn most traditional Western social tenets.

Most well off middle class urban liberals have no problem at all with trendy co-habitation and raising their children in bastardry.

Then they complain because they lower echelons of society emulate their behaviour and then call on the state to support the families they have no ability to support themselves because the traditional framework for doing so is not in place.

Its why I don't have much time for those irrational types who call themselves fiscal conservatives / social liberals. The two ideologies are completely incompatible.

Your own excellent research seems to back up this view.

paul scott said...

Yes, Even if we correct for population differences Maori 19% / Pacifica 9%, // We have Maori at over twice the level of extreme risk as Pacifica, and three times the level of European. Similar ratios follow through to high risk.
That is staggering. I see risk as assessed as association to corrections / education/ and mental health services.