Sunday, September 21, 2014

So much to absorb

ACT is back with a young MP. Every cut to their party headquarters last night showed loads of young people milling around. A great basis for renewal. Seymour may be on his own but not in the way Banks was.

Speaking of young people, a first time voter I know gave two ticks to National yesterday. Reasoning: if they could go it alone they could get more done. I hope their faith is rewarded.

Hone. I felt sorry for him and his Mana supporters, but that emotion was quickly overwhelmed by my deep satisfaction at Laila Harre getting nothing. Maybe not even her last pay cheque.

Maori. At this stage only two and a half percent of voters gave their party vote to race-based parties. Fascinating.

Winston. Oh joy that the PM does not need to include him. He has more MPs but less power. I could not believe the many media muppets last night repeating the line, He wants to be speaker. Winston isn't interested in a role that requires daily discipline. But welcome back Ron Mark.

(Pause to make second mug of much-needed tea.)

Conservative. What a waste. Next time at least cost your policies. I received one pamphlet that was 50 percent dedicated to anti-alcohol and drugs nannyism. Big lose to wowserism.

Kelvin Davis. If Labour was really serious about just staying in the game they'd make him leader.

Greens are stuck. Another term in opposition. Rodney Hide can tell you how wearing that gets year after year. They gambled too much on child poverty emotional blackmail.  Metitria Turei is a fake. In time she could replace Winston Peters as parliaments biggest fibber.  I actually felt the tiniest smidgen of sympathy for Russell.

I watched the final party addresses on Friday evening. National won it then. And Key, surprisingly I thought, emphasised more than once that government should leave people to make their own choices and run their own lives.

Stay on that message for the next three years (and don't be overly magnanimous to those parliamentary enemies your voters didn't want.)


Oswald Bastable said...

Wowserism cost the Conservatives.

As soon as Colin started on about taxing cheap(er) drink, I knew he had shot himself in the foot with the elephant gun. IF he had taken a stance along the line of making only the alcohol abusers PAY, then he might haver gotten past the finishing post.

Like it or not, we love our drink. Live with that.

Anonymous said...

ACT is dead...MP or not.Last 3 years before the final buriel.

Anonymous said...

Overall we're looking at a greater than 10% swing to the right - Greens and Labour down, Winston up, Conservatives up (and they're both to the Right of Labour). Counting up all the votes, there's a 63%+ majority in NZ for policies to the Right of Labour. That's not going to change anytime soon!

This is the first ever majority government under MMP - and it's a National majority government! - even Hellen never managed that. Even though Labour as a whole is a big higher than National managed in 2002, I'm sure - given the numbers above - that the left is far, far weaker than National were then. So National must be set for the next two terms absolutely, almost certainly the next three or four, yes, in coalition with ACT and The Conservatives next time around and the time after that.

This is all good!

The left far worse off than when Key wasted Helen Clark. There's no-one at all in the Labour caucus who is a potential leader, let alone a potential prime-minister. Whale calling out Kelvin Davis & Stuart Nash is just being mischievous - they only won this time around for a fluke, they'll likely lose their electorates next time around. The only obvious tactical move is for Labour to go electorate only, and all Labour's party vote move to the Greens, but that's an obvious rort and the 60% of Kiwis who voted for the Right simply would not tolerate it.

Conservative. What a waste Not really. Key didn't need 'em, but National will in '17 or '20. And they'll be there, getting better each time.

Maori clearly on the way out - and tied hard to National. By 2020 Flavell will have retired & Marama Fox will have a high list ranking on National's list, so the Maori seats will be able to be abolished having gone back 100% to Labour.

Winston. Given the large flow of votes from Greens and Labour to the Right - more NZF votes is good overall, and better still that there is a National Majority govt. But NZF in some form will still be around in 2020 when National needs 'em.

Greens probably lost the most from the Internet/MANA fiasco. Internet especially with Laila was nothing but a spoiler party for the Greens. IMana cost the greens 12.5% of their vote, while the Cons wasted only 8% of National's vote.

don't be overly magnanimous to those parliamentary enemies your voters didn't want.)

I prefer the phrase "crush them" myself. This election has really proved one thing: Whaleoil IS Mainstream NZ! Given how badly McCarten & Prebs failed this time around, Whale is really the only pundit standing. Cam justifiably deserves some policy wins from National - his three biggest seem to be:
- anti-corruption commission
- rules against union participation in politics
- de-unionsing schools & public service

and those reforms are only going to make it even hard for the left to get back in 2023 or 2026.

Anonymous said...

Great analysis. I was sorry to see the ACT party vote at such an ebb. I thought it would have been greater in Epsom and elsewhere. You're right that ACT seems to have a young libertarian in the House.

Chris R.

pdm said...

chris r - I think the ACT vote suffered because a number of their regular but not core voters moved to National with their Party Vote because they were concerned about wasting it. I was one of those having given act my PV in every MMP election until now.

ACT has a lot of work to do to resurrect their vote. I have some thoughts on that and will put a post on No Minister later this week - once I have `hardened up' those thoughts.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your commentary over the election - it helped me to decide my vote (tactical vote for Peter Dunne, vote for what I believe for Act).