Sunday, July 20, 2014

Poll puzzle

The NZ Herald headline says, "Labour slumps to 15 year low".
Labour's support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.
But over on Whale Oil Richard McGrath has pointed out Labour won the 1999 election.

The historical polls are available at DigiPoll

This is the 1999 pre-election poll.

Does that mean 2 months out from the 1999 election, Labour was polling in the mid 20s and managed to turn that into 40% by polling day?

Adding to the puzzle I found this

Labour Surge, Alliance Slump in Latest Poll

Today’s Herald DigiPoll shows Labour surging further ahead to 43.8 per cent, up seven points from National on 35.7 per cent.

Just over two months out, Labour was on 43.8 percent.

So if it had been polling much lower earlier in the year, it didn't turn it around within two months of the election - where we are now.

Ah I see the problem now. I am interpreting the headline wrongly.

If instead of "Labour slumps to 15 year low" it was "Employment slumps to 15 year low," I would expect to go back to 1999 and see employment at the same rate as when the headline was written. Employment statistics of course go back much further. The Herald DigiPoll does not.


Angry Tory said...

Remind me again why we need a Labour Party?

These polls also make clear that if one wants a centre-left government (let alone a centre, centre-right, or god forbid an actual right-leaning government) you won't get it from National.

electorate vote National for sure (except in Epsom & East Coast Bays) but party vote ACT, Conservatives, or for real mischief, Green.

The big question for Cunner in the next two months is: can he prevent a massive shift from Labour to the Greens - that is, the end of the NZ Labour Party.

Anonymous said...

The only puzzle is - why is Labour holding up so well?

Jigsaw said...

Labour don't seem to realise that the Greens are eating them from the left and that scares the electorate...

Anonymous said...

The real truth is brutally simple (and simply brutal)

Labour slumps to lowest poll rating ever.

actual working people vote National.

non-codger blugders vote Green.

the only people left voting Labour are civil servants, teachers, nurses etc. And when the Greens get to within say 5% of Labour then there will be a tipping point - that vote will all jump to Greens and Labour will cease to exist.

Anonymous said...

For reference - lowest Labour vote ever - 1922 - 23.7%.