Friday, February 21, 2014

Teenage births fall yet again

The birth rate of teenagers has been falling since 2008. The following data show that the numbers of births per 1,000 15-19 year-olds has fallen from 32.8 in 2008 to 22 last year (provisionally). The smaller number is the births to under 14 year-olds and younger:

0.3 31.3
0.3 32.8
0.2 29.4
0.2 28.8
0.2 25.8
0.1 24.9
2013 P 0.1 22.0

In absolute terms that means 1,902 fewer births. And as virtually all single teen parents go on welfare, 1426 fewer babies starting off on a benefit with the likelihood of staying there for many years. That is excellent.

Less of a good news story is that the fertility rate has dropped for every age resulting in the overall fertility rate falling below replacement at 1.95 births per woman.

Some regions have not declined, or barely: Gisborne, Manawatu, Marlborough, with Tasman and Nelson up very slightly.

The most significant reductions are Northland - 8%, West Coast - 7% (but that's off a low number) and Wellington 6%.

Overall the decrease in births on 2012 was 4 percent. That figure is shared by Auckland, Hawkes Bay, Otago and Southland.

Canterbury fell by only 1 percent.


Anonymous said...

Less of a good news story is that the fertility rate has dropped for every age

Why is that a surprise. Fertility rose when the economy boomed, combined with clearly pro-families-with-children policies and subsidies under Labour.

Times have been worse, and even if the government is still borrowing billions to keep all those pro-kids subsidies, it's not as easy as it was in '08 to bring up kids. So rational people have fewer children.

thor42 said...

Very good news!

Combine this with National's efforts to keep young people off benefits and that bodes well for welfare numbers continuing to fall.