Asian parents give lie to the NZ narrative

The non-challenged New Zealand narrative is that housing costs are a major driver of child poverty. 

Rents are unaffordable, houses are damp and mouldy, and children go hungry and ill as a consequence.

Consider these newly released graphs from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC):

Asian children live in homes with the highest ratio of housing- to- income costs.

Asian children have the lowest experience of damp, mouldy homes.

Asian children are the least likely to go hungry.

Looks a lot to me like Asians prioritise renting or buying at the limit of their capability; that they seek better properties and better neighbourhoods and take responsibility for any damp or mould; and that even on tight budgets they know how to feed their kids.

Asian parents give lie to the New Zealand narrative.

Defining ethnicity for the purposes of measuring child poverty

The Child Poverty Related Indicators report on housing, food security, school attendance and potentionally avoidable hospital admissions. The problem - or absurdity - is that each indicator uses a different method of defining child ethnicity.

• Housing affordability and housing quality indicators: ethnic groups are reported using the total response method. People were able to identify with more than one ethnic group; therefore, figures will not sum to the total population. People who responded ‘New Zealander’ were classified as ‘other ethnic group’.

• Food security: respondents can identify with multiple ethnicities, including specifying an ethnic group not listed.

• School attendance: students were able to identify with up to three ethnicities. Students are counted under each ethnic group they identify with and once in "Total".

• Potentially avoidable admissions: The ethnicity reported is based on prioritised ethnicity for a patient within the hospital inpatient system. This prioritises people to Māori, then Pacific, and then Other ethnicities. A person identified as having more than one ethnicity will be prioritised accordingly and will only be counted once under each ethnicity category for each PAH event.

Take the first, housing. If a child falls in the housing hardship group, and has two or more ethnicities, he is counted twice or more. So there is a bias towards overstating a housing hardship problem for children of mixed ethnicity. 

Conversely, with hospitalisations, even though each child is counted just once, because Maori ethnicity is prioritised, there is a bias towards overstating the Maori aspect of hospitalisation. 

Just two more reasons why the Child Poverty Related Indicators need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Massaging child poverty indicators

 

This is a graph with which I am familiar. If anything there is an upward trend in 'all cause' child hospitalisations.

So I was somewhat surprised yesterday to hear the good news from the PM's department Child Poverty Related Indicators Report that 'potentially avoidable hospitalisations' (PAH) are trending down.

"Over the five years to 2019/20, rates of potentially avoidable hospitalisations have been decreasing."

Odd.

So I went looking for the detail that might explain the seeming contradiction (beyond the fact that from March 2020 Covid meant people didn't go to hospital.) Here's the blurb on PAH:

 Potentially avoidable hospitalisations

The Ministry of Health does not routinely collect data on potentially avoidable hospitalisations. In order to present data for this indicator, the Ministry of Health used the National Minimum Dataset (Hospital Inpatient Events) and developed a specific methodology based on analysis from academic literature and discussions with experts. The methodology report has been published by the Ministry of Health (Ministry of Health. Indicator of potentially avoidable hospitalisations for the Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy: A brief report on methodology. Wellington: Ministry of Health. 2020).

A "specific methodology" designed solely for the purposes of creating a new indicator which...

... is required to help the government: 

-better understand the social determinants of child and youth health

-monitor the collective efforts of the health sector and other sectors on improving the health status of this population subgroup.

Forgive my cynicism but could one include in that list 'to help the government look good?'

What we have is actual hospitalisations rising while 'potentially avoidable hospitalisations' are falling.

Doesn't that mean 'potentially unavoidable hospitalisations' are increasing?

Is that good news? Here's the headline:

'More Children Being Unavoidably Hospitalised'

Talk about spin.

The spanner in the works for separatism

 

More Maori men and more Maori women are married to or cohabiting with Europeans than other Maori.

Updated data:

Comparing the 2001 and 2013 data a number of patterns are evident:

1. There has been a small but important decline in the proportion of partnered Māori who

have a Māori partner. In 2001, 53% of partnered Māori men had a Māori partner. In

2013 this declined to 48%. For Māori women the decline was from 52% to 47%.

What happened to the 'shecession'?

Remember all the belly-aching by feminist pollies and journos about how hard done by women have been due to Covid?

Here's a sample from The Ministry of Women's Affairs:

The impacts of COVID-19 are exacerbated for women and girls.

Some groups of women will experience greater impacts than others. Women who fall into multiple groups experiencing existing inequalities may feel the combined effects of factors such as race, age, sexuality, and disability with gender.

Wāhine Māori and Pacific women are already impacted by existing inequalities while being more likely to have additional financial and caring responsibilities for extended family members. 

Women are often disproportionately affected by downturns in the labour market and that’s likely to be the case again with COVID-19’s economic impacts. New Zealand’s labour force is highly segregated by industry and gender, with women more likely to work in lower-paid jobs and perform unpaid and voluntary roles.

That was just a smidgen of it.  I countered with data showing more males had to resort to the Jobseeker and Covid Income Relief payments.

Well, the latest unemployment figures are out.

The rate for men and women is identical - 4.7% 

Politicking is only a by-product

Henry Cooke from Stuff says:

ACT voters are definitely more likely to be susceptible to racialised politics than the average voter.

It contains a odd word. "Susceptible".

In the context of the piece, the word "susceptible" implies that as an ACT voter I am being manipulated by the party.

Quite the contrary. I am relieved that there are some MPs in the house who share the same views as I do.

Yes, politicians play at politics. That's their job. To get elected to implement or protect the ideas of those who vote for them.

But the politicking is only a by-product of any issue that causes deep division.

Cooke can write his smug opinion pieces framing He Puapua as a mere plaything the right have latched hungrily onto - despite some of what it contains being already under way. He fails to mention the compulsory history curriculum demanded by the report. Or the UN submission confirming New Zealand wants to lead the world in enshrining the rights of indigenous people.

In the first half of last century I would have fought for the rights of Maori to be treated equally under the law. There were instances when this did not happen and that was wrong.

But to go beyond individuals having equal rights - for instance He Puapua clearly states that in some cases Maori would have greater say over resources - is dangerous and unworkable. It also invokes a chill about collectivism or tribalism which will not serve Maori equally.

We need to heal the division of the past (why the Waitangi Tribunal existed before it moved into the area of policy advocacy) and move forward together all sharing the same democratic framework.

I can't remember a time when this simple idea felt more remote.

Green MP likens Oranga Tamariki social workers to Mongrel Mob

Two Green MPs went to a hui with Mongrel Mob. I don't particularly have a problem with MPs talking to gangs. Problems never get solved without people talking. But I draw the line at this statement from one of those MPs, Elizabeth Kerekere:

“Let’s talk about the criminals here - let’s look at the recent uplifting of children. In a different world they would be prosecuted for their behaviour. They are protected at the moment, but we need to do things in a different way.”

This is absurd. Gangs are one of OT's biggest clients:

A total of 3,516 children of gang members were recorded as being the victims of abuse or neglect that had been substantiated on investigation by Child, Youth and Family. This is 60 per cent of the total 5,890 known children of gang members.

If those social workers charged with protecting these children would be "prosecuted for their behaviour" in a "different world", what could we expect for gang member's children? The mind boggles.

Kerekere says her favourite part of the Mongrel Mob event was meeting the Wāhine Toa (the women’s chapter of Mongrel Mob Kingdom), which the women in Waikato formed and is starting to spread out among the country.

”I’m very excited by this. This is where we see women leaders are stepping up inside that particular gang and across the country particularly in caring for our tamariki.”

"Women leaders" no less. What do we know about gang women?

The alleged perpetrator of abuse or neglect of gang member’s children was more often recorded as the child’s mother than the gang member father.

I shudder for the kids if this "different world" comes to pass.

 

Employing 'B' to make sure 'A' gets the job done

 Or, in other words, 

Deputy PM Grant Robertson setting up new 'implementation unit' to make sure Government policies actually happen

You couldn't make this stuff up.

Still, it's always good to start the day with a laugh.

Damien Grant: "Here's your problem, National: You need to take your leader seriously"

"Around 400,000 formerly blue voters abandoned National at the last election. If recent opinion polling can be trusted, they have not come back.

National’s review of why this happened is out, and a sanitised version has been released to the public. The report wants the party to focus on diversity and recruitment. Both recommendations fail to address the party's malaise.

National does not have a diversity problem, and even if it does, it does not matter.

I do not care about the racial make-up of any political party. Neither, I suspect, do most Māori, given that the Māori Party only collected 33,000 party votes.

Indeed, the last time National was polling in the forties it was buoyed by widespread Pākehā support, despite being led by two individuals with Māori heritage. If National believes that dragging Shane Reti around to every photo shoot is going to boost its support among those who identify as Māori, it has a shockingly low opinion of the Māori electorate.

National can embrace the Treaty if it will make it feel better, but diversity isn’t its problem."

More

"I think the Treaty has been breached"

Oh really?

This from the Minister for Children, Kelvin Davis, regarding Oranga Tamariki's uplift of Maori children and their over-representation in state care.

"I think the Treaty has been breached"

What else has been breached?

A child's right to be nurtured and protected?

The child's innate trust in their mother?

A families responsibility to rally around a newborn child to enure its wellbeing?

The Treaty being breached is way down the list of what matters to that child.

It's got months, a couple of years, to receive the crucial input it needs.

Meanwhile racial politicking drones on ...

Sepuloni "useless"

Peter Williams described the Minister of Social Development, Carmel Sepuloni as "useless" on his Magic Talk programme this morning. Specifically, because she had no idea how much MSD had given to moteliers etc for damage caused by "MSD clients".

Is she useless, or something worse?

Since 2017 Sepuloni has driven a culture change at Work and Income. On the surface, treating clients with respect and care (if they weren't already) is laudable and hard to argue with. WINZ offices are brighter, security staff are less visible, there are water dispensers and play areas for children. Away from the coalface, thousands of clients are rung to ensure they are receiving their full and correct entitlements.

This is the policy of kindness in action.

Long-established rules are dispensed with or overlooked. COVID was a great enabler in advancing this change of approach. The Greens, whose MSD spokesperson used to be a beneficiary advocate, should be pleased (though they never are). The Green Party wants benefits to be completely unconditional and open-ended. Last term Labour needed the Greens, and it shows.

The use of sanctions to enforce obligations has fallen away. Benefit reviews have been abandoned. Medical certificates too. Grants for all types of emergency assistance have sky-rocketed; denied applications have plummeted. 

Expectations have been established not just by visibly changing how WINZ looks and operates. But by more insidious messaging.

The promotion of victimhood through claims that structural racism abounds, and colonisation is to blame for every ill imaginable, used to be the territory of extremists. Now it is routinely promulgated by academia and other authorities. If not Maori, there are other excuses for disaffection provided by mainstream Marxism.

People on benefits have every right to feel resentful and aggrieved. So much so that bad behaviour is understandable. It’s just a form of protest bound to become more prolific.

But some (often blameless beneficiaries) who live in or near emergency housing feel very unsafe. The protestors doubtless sleep all day and come out at night to wreak havoc; do drugs, do violence and do damage. These aren’t working people who have to get a decent night’s sleep.

They are anti-social miscreants who arc between apathy and aggression and wear their alienation as a badge of honour.

Instead of a system that refuses to tolerate their destructiveness, we get a system which rewards them with no-strings-attached cash and plenty of excuses for their defection from the rest of society.

Nobody has explained to them that the social security system was born out of shared values, shared compassion for genuine need, and shared commitment to fund it.

Certainly Sepuloni hasn’t bothered. And it is highly unlikely that the new compulsory history curriculum will cover what Mickey Savage envisaged when he created it over eighty years ago.

Green associate housing Minister Marama Davidson is appalled. The situation is unacceptable she says. Yet this is a leading proponent of an anything-goes benefit regime. Is she really surprised at what such a mushy modus operandi results in?

A much harder line must be taken with offenders. They will be breaking multiple laws and for the sake of those in closest proximity – those in genuine, unavoidable need – the very least that should happen is a threat to immediately end their benefit entitlement. Whatever ensues, we have a police force to deal with.

Someone needs to get – and someone needs to give – the correct message: you can’t keep biting the hand that feeds you.

Don’t hold your breath for that someone to be the person in charge though.

"Cuddly teddy bear"

Confusion reigns in some lives. A man is murdered. Coleman was his partner:

Three days on from the killing, Coleman told Stuff she wanted to know why someone would viciously attack the “cuddly teddy bear” her daughter thought of as a father.

Rose-coloured glasses after the fact?

 At the time of his death, Hawkins was on electronically monitored bail for alleged family violence-related offending against Coleman.

Tragic.

"If only they could talk"

Not a burning issue for many people I realise (though a matter of their livelihood for hundreds) but I thought the following two columns were a great example of contrasting opinion from two people; one a politician and one a retired vet.

Opinion: Since only the beginning of 2021, seven greyhounds have been killed and 282 injured on racetracks across Aotearoa.

Take a moment to let that sink in. This is our dog-racing industry, one of the last still in operation in the world.

These deaths and injuries aren’t a bug. They’re a design feature, and they always have been.

Fifteen years ago, former racing minister Winston Peters launched the Greyhounds As Pets adoption scheme, seeking to improve the public perception of the industry’s approach to animal welfare.

In 2017, he reflected on that moment 11 years prior, lamenting: “It is disappointing the industry is still grappling with these underlying issues”.

Those underlying issues are greyhound deaths, injuries, and the occasional meth-doping scandal.

Seven greyhounds have been killed and 282 injured on racetracks across Aotearoa so far this year.

Time and again, the industry argues that it loves these dogs. I would hope that anyone who loves their dogs would have learnt from nearly 20 years of broken legs and ankles, ruptured stomachs and trauma that, just maybe, they should stop doing the same thing over and over again.

Because we’ve been here before.

In 2013, the ‘WHK report’ made a slew of recommendations to improve animal welfare. Then in 2017, with disconcert from the broader racing industry, former High Court judge Rodney Hansen QC produced yet another report.

That report found: “The number of greyhounds reported as euthanised continues at high levels with evidence of widespread non-compliance with reporting requirements strongly suggesting the true figure is much higher”.

There were at least 1200 dogs unaccounted for in the four years since that last report.

Last week, the Government announced the third review of the industry this decade, with new Minister for Racing Grant Robertson stating he was “not satisfied the [Hansen] recommendations are being implemented in a way that is improving animal welfare”.

When the same questions keep turning up the same answers, and those answers are the mistreatment of animals, how long are we supposed to extend goodwill? How many more dogs will die or disappear in that time?

Greyhound Racing New Zealand will tell you greyhounds are athletes; they love to race! This is a sport! Research the breed, you’ll find out!

The reality is greyhounds are typically low-energy dogs with a light frame and, obviously, the ability to run fast. Because of that, these dogs have been bred and imported into New Zealand to generate income for the gambling sector.

Do they love to race? More importantly, do they have a choice? When the gun goes off and the gate goes up, the dogs run, because they’ve been trained to do so, and thousands of dollars are at stake in each race.

In an industry plagued by claims of doping, live baiting, animal welfare issues and kennel cough outbreaks, the dogs that don’t perform don’t make it.

Greyhound Racing New Zealand reported that 165 dogs alone in the last annual reporting period were killed ‘for other reasons’ – they’re too slow or too broken for the industry, and too traumatised to be a family pet.

The dogs that do make it out of the gate on race day are the ones that are still useful. This has nothing to do with ‘loving to race’, and everything to do with training and the window of opportunity the industry has to use them up.

The injuries suffered routinely are serious – horrific major bone breaks and organ rupture – painful, fatal injuries there can be no recovery from.

Athletes aren’t put down. But these dogs are, when they become a balance-sheet liability.

We’ve got plenty of other sports, and many you can gamble on if that’s really what you’re after. Those athletes have a say in what they’re doing and when they retire.

Greyhounds can pursue a love of running in plenty of other ways, like chasing a ball at the park with other dogs.

Or, they can be found nuzzled into the arm of a couch for notorious hours-long naps that come quite naturally, if you ask anyone who’s ever owned a greyhound as just a good old pet, not a bet.

Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick is working on a Member’s Bill to end greyhound racing in New Zealand.

OPINION: Recent comments distributed by animal activists and the SPCA reveal it is time to change the narrative about greyhound racing. Contrary to continuing claims, the welfare of the dogs is now well managed and previous problems have largely been overcome.

Since I became the independent chairman of the Greyhound Racing New Zealand Health and Welfare Committee in 2015, the major focus has been on the development and implementation of new health and welfare standards which surpass those required by the Code of Welfare for Dogs issued in 2010 under the Animal Welfare Act.

New Zealand greyhounds are probably the most regulated and protected animals in the country throughout their racing careers until they are rehomed at the end.

As a result of valid concerns highlighted in the past greyhound racing continues to be subject to thorough scrutiny and a third review in the last decade has just been announced. Greyhound Racing New Zealand is confident that all the required management improvements have been made as a result of the first two reviews.

 Greyhound Racing New Zealand has shown no hesitation to suspend racing in the face of disease outbreaks or adverse track conditions. In such circumstances, support is always provided to ensure the welfare of the dogs and the people involved.

Greyhounds have a lovely temperament and chasing is natural behaviour which they love to do, just as much as other dogs. Watch the obvious enjoyment when two or more dogs race to get to a ball that is thrown for them on a park or at the beach.

The concerns expressed by the SPCA and SAFE indicate a lack of current knowledge as the fears they have raised are many years out of date. For instance the SPCA says it wants veterinarians to be present at all race meetings, but this has been mandatory for over 30 years.

All dogs receive a pre-race check and a number identified during and after each race are also sent immediately for veterinary examination by the race day vet. In the event of accident or injury, adequate pain relief is available within minutes, as compared to the fate of working, sporting, and hunting dogs which may wait several hours.

Mandatory collection and publication of lifecycle reports has been in operation and steadily improved upon since the first 2012-2013 inquiry into greyhound racing. Subsequent inquiries have established that most of the “missing data” previously reported had been collected but was not in an easily accessible format. Similar comments apply to injury statistics and with compulsory ear branding and now micro-chipping, greyhounds are the most easily traced breed in New Zealand.

A further SPCA complaint that more greyhounds are bred for the racing industry than will enter is inconsistent with the reality. With the establishment of the greyhound Welfare Committee, the welfare code for greyhounds was largely rewritten with considerable emphasis on all welfare aspects, including adequate socialisation as young pups, restrictions on the number of litters any one female can have, and a ban on breeding from females over eight years-old, except in very special circumstances. These circumstances must be explained, in writing, to a panel of three veterinarians who have the absolute right to grant or deny breeding permission. In recent years the numbers of pups born has remained remarkably stable with any not making it to the race track simply entering the adoption programme at a younger age.

The number of greyhounds euthanased is reported to the Government, published on the GRNZ website and in the annual report. These statistics are not able to be compared with the numbers of dogs euthanased elsewhere in New Zealand because none of the other organisations that euthanase animals in their care make their numbers available. GRNZ has minimised the numbers of greyhounds put down through measures taken to limit injuries and support treatment; and rehoming programmes. With rehoming being the priority for all Greyhounds there is no time limit preventing the rehoming of dogs as they exit the sport. They are cared for until they are matched with the right family.

As far as the claims of over exertion go, racing greyhounds are elite athletes, with the top grade dogs the equivalent of Olympic competitors and treated as such by their trainers. They make every endeavour to ensure their dogs are fit and ready for the distance they will be racing over. Trainers know their dogs and do not ask them to exceed their capabilities.

Greyhound Racing NZ accepts there will always be those who do not support the racing of animals and want it banned. They are entitled to this belief, but it is important when opposing any activity that the true picture is acknowledged and misinformation is corrected.

Retired veterinarian Jim Edwards ONZM is the independent chairman of the Greyhound Racing NZ Health and Welfare Committee. He is also a former president of the New Zealand Veterinary Association and the World Veterinary Association.

Children's Commissioner gets it right - and then horribly wrong

I posted yesterday about the child poverty stats and why they are a joke. While recalibration shows better reduction, nothing materially changes for children.  Here's the Children's Commissioner on the same subject:

“A different number behind a decimal point doesn’t change things for the thousands of tamariki and whanau doing it tough. Children who are growing up in a motel, or whose families are struggling to pay for the basics, still need big bold changes to unlock opportunities to live their best lives."

Correct.

But then he plunges headlong down the leftist rabbit hole:

 “Government efforts to target poverty reduction, improve incomes through the families’ package, expand the school lunch programme and peg benefits to wages have created the strongest foundations for making progress on poverty in decades.

“Poverty and hardship rates, particularly among Māori, Pacific and disabled children are still unacceptably high.

“We want to see benefits raised in line with the recommendations of the Welfare Expert Advisory Group, and a major shift in the availability of social and affordable housing for whānau."

So his solution is greater dependence on the state. Bigger benefits means more children growing up on benefits. 

There is so much documented evidence, here and internationally, that shows benefit dependence - especially long-term - is detrimental to children's outcomes.

Benefits erode family cohesion and they discourage work.

I had high hopes for Andrew Becroft, who back in relatively sane times was outspoken about the young people who appeared before him in the Youth Court. He identified an absence of fathers as the most common factor in their troubled backgrounds. If he hadn't connected that to the state's encouragement of single parent families through the DPB then he must be wilfully blind.

Perhap he is. As Children's Commissoner he is now actively calling for more of the same medicine despite known adverse side effects outweighing any advantage.

Moving people off benefit is "the old paradigm"

MSD set up a division of case managers to work with people who enter the benefit system very young and/or are "entrenched" beneficiaries. They have a smaller caseload and can work more intensively on other barriers to work the client is experiencing.

A qualitative evaluation of the service has been published and (perhaps understandably)  there seems to be no overall data regarding how successful the programme was/is in getting people independent. 

"Time off-benefit for clients assigned to the ICS treatment group, as compared to those assigned to the control group (and who continue to receive services as normal), is the key metric by which the success of the ICS trial is assessed.7"

Go to footnote 7 to find:

"7 Ministry of Social Development: Intensive Client Support (ICS) Trial Evaluation: Interim 12 Months Evaluation, pg 23. Unpublished internal report." 

Perhaps the quantitative data will come later. We are told, "Of the 26 trial participants interviewed for this research, seven had achieved off-benefit outcomes, although three had subsequently returned to the benefit, one having lost their job, one returning due to an injury, and one due to seasonal work finishing."

Not flash. But the case managers evaluate their own success differently. Two views:

I must resist any pressure from certain staff who are still in the old paradigm of just moving people off benefit as quickly as possible. It’s not about numbers, these are people. They’re people who, if you don’t do anything with them, sure, will cost the government over their lifetime. But the downstream effects are not just one benefit for a lifetime, it’s use of the criminal justice system, their children’s failures and risks. Who cares if they stay on a benefit if it means they don’t go back to jail, if they can get help for their trauma in childhood, if they learn to read and write better so they feel more positive, if they are able to leave the house more. It’s about improving their lives to make society better. (ICSM)

Measuring success rates are quite difficult because who says they’ve done well, and how is that measured? And that’s quite hard for your personal development to go “Oh well I’ve got so many people, this person has been showing up to appointments” and so that’s an achievement to me. But my manager’s like “no, how many people have you got into work?” (ICSM) 

Isn't this illuminating?

On the one hand I have some sympathy for their efforts and priorities. And of course, behind the numbers are real people.

But it also concerns me that the damage the benefit system has done in some families and sectors is so great, self-sufficiency is now a secondary consideration. Just rescuing some people from themselves is enough.

If  'moving people off benefit' is the "old paradigm" have we lost the battle?

When I worked with beneficiaries I resisted trying to solve their problems by trying to get more WINZ money or a food parcel. I tried to help them find practical solutions or make better decisions. But I eventually identified that the biggest obstacle to them making changes was the guarantee of cash in their bank account every week regardless of how they lived their lives. Not uniformly but typically.

Child poverty stats

Child poverty stats are a joke.

If grown-ups get collectively poorer, children get richer (relatively).

Never has this been better illustrated than by a just-announced Stats NZ cock-up.

They have recalibrated recently released child poverty stats and they are better than initially thought. How convenient.

Treasury , "identified several respondents incorrectly reporting the superannuation payments they received, resulting in double counting their income from superannuation, which has also been resolved in this corrected release.

The corrections resulted in a change to the median income for the year ended June 2020, which is used to provide the thresholds for child poverty reporting. The median equivalised disposable household income for the year ended June 2020 before housing costs are deducted reduced from $42,486 to $41,472. After housing costs are deducted, it reduced from $32,579 to $31,717."

If the threshold goes down, fewer children fall below it.

None of this makes children materially any better off.

But it might make the PM puff her chest out.

Stand by.

Benefits stats and some aberrations

 Here's National on the March quarter benefit stats:

Labour Mislead on Negative Statistics Again

Labour’s celebratory social media posts touting a “record 32,880 people moved into work” are disingenuous and only tell one part of the story, National’s Social Development & Employment spokesperson Louise Upston says.

“What Labour aren’t telling us, is that more people were put on a benefit than moved into work across the same time period. That’s 46,437 additional people moving on to benefits.

Yes, it is correct that 46,437 grants of benefits occurred during the March 2021 quarter.

But during the same period there were 60,573 cancellations of benefits.

That's net 14,136 fewer people on benefits. And for a March quarter 32,880 moving into work is a record for the last 6 years. 

That is what Labour is crowing about.

Now if you want to make comparisons to when Labour took office, or the degree of dependence in respect of how long people are staying on benefits, that's another matter....

 If I was putting a question to the minister I'd be asking what happened to the blue lines. Why no cancellations due to benefit reviews or health improvements?

I went into the data tables for a look:

Something very odd about those two categories.

As far as I am aware benefits are still reviewed annually. Most have to be re-applied for after 52 weeks.  And one assumes that a failure to present a medical certificate for  benefit requiring one would typically lead to X amount of cancellations as per past March quarters.

Maybe some porcedures went West during Covid and just haven't been reinstated since.

Benefit increases we don't hear about

MSD has just released a report into how Labour's Families Package has affected incomes of parents with infants in the first six months post-birth. The first table compares mothers with children born in 2017 with mothers with children born in 2018. It uses data from a 3 month cohort pre July 1. The reason for this is that the Best Start payment didn't kick in till July 1, 2018.

Those recieving the largest increase in absolute terms were beneficiary, and by ethnicity, Maori.

Then the study examines the effect of the Best Start payment post July 1 which is "in addition to income gains from other parts of the Families Package":

The Best Start payment is $60 weekly in the first year but it may be offset by adjustments to other assistance. For instance:

...some families receiving a benefit or with a low income lost Temporary Additional Support – this is a payment of last resort that is withdrawn dollar-for-dollar as income from other sources, including Best Start and other Working for Families tax credits, increases

• some families appear to have also lost Accommodation Supplement income

Nevertheless the net increase in incomes for all mothers, but especially mothers on a benefit, is considerable.

The  study also examined whether the 4 week extension to Paid Parental Leave had the intended effect of allowing mothers a longer bonding period.

"The size of the effect on months with no wages and salaries appears small [0.21 of a month] relative to the four-week extension in paid parental leave made available to parents in 2018. One possible explanation is that recent inflation in house prices and rents worked in opposition to the policy reform."

Pretty much a policy fail there. 

The next report will be of great interest when the effect of increased incomes on the health and well-being of the children is assessed.

Another policy fail is entirely possible.

Also, look out for the Child Poverty Action Group and other anti-poverty advocates kicking up a stink when the first recipients of Best Start (3 year entitlement) lose the income from July 1 this year. That's what they did when the Winter Energy payment stopped last year.

With friends like that Labour doesn't need enemies.

Covid 19 vaccination rates by ethnicity

 Regular readers will know I love data. It's like a toy you can play with in different ways. The visual representation relays speedily what raw numbers do not. So for no other reason, I was drawn to this chart and thought others may be interested:

Latest benefit numbers

Three graphs for you from March quarter benefit fact sheets released today.

Unsurprisingly, large increase in Jobseeker numbers year-on-year. Though on an optimistic note the numbers are slightly below what Treasury was forecasting:

Note the massive increase in emergency housing expenditure:

And the overall picture...