"Most of us don't come close to paying our way in the tax system"

In a flippant attack on Superannuation the writer states:

"Most of us don't come close to paying our way in the tax system."

Really?

Source

12 percent of individuals are paying 48% of income tax.

But that doesn't mean that a young person with no dependents isn't "paying their way" ie putting in more than they take out in either transfers or services.

Most people tend to "pay their way" at different times during their lives.

I'm not "paying my way" as an individual but I am as part of a couple. 

So it's a fraught statement. As is much of the opinion piece bursting with generalizations.  Interestingly, the comments (closed almost immediately) aren't very favourable.

(Update: Comments have gone from 8 when I first read the article to 285. My observation was based on the 8 I read.)

Justifying beneficiary increase

According to TV Three News:

"...the number of people on benefits has increased by 15,000 since the Government took office - but it's insisting that's down to population growth..."

And "...the number of people on a benefit has increased by 15,000 - though the numbers remain in line with population growth."

Labour is backtracking to "since the Government took office" because it can't defend its more recent record.

Another big jump in benefit numbers

"The number of working-age people receiving main benefits as at the end of June 2019 was 5.2 percent higher than at the end of June 2018."

Here's ACT's press release on the matter:

Beneficiary numbers spike by almost 15,000
Thu, 18 Jul, 2019

“A massive spike in the number beneficiaries shows Labour’s anti-growth policies are slowing the economy and making it easier for people to stay on welfare”, says ACT Leader David Seymour.

“There was an increase of 14,559 people on a benefit in the last 12 months.

“That is a shocking indictment of Labour’s economic record and a reflection its approach of failing to sanction beneficiaries who don’t comply with their obligations.

The number of New Zealanders on a main benefit has grown to 291,969, or 9.7 per cent of the working-age population.

“Even more damning is an 11.2 per cent increase in the number of people on Jobseeker Support – that’s 13,720 more than this time last year.

“Uncertainty over a capital gains tax, industry-wide collective bargaining and foreign investment and a higher minimum wage are starting to take their toll on the economy.

“Labour needs to take responsibility for the harm it is doing to the economy.

“It is completely unacceptable that nearly 300,000 New Zealanders are on a benefit when some industries are desperate for workers. If people can work, they should.

“The Government should alleviate genuine hardship, but Labour’s anti-growth policies will see many more New Zealanders dependent on handouts, rather than living productive, independent lives.”

Why children are uplifted

(Left click to enlarge)

Above is a graphic from a short article by Ian Lambie, Chief Science Advisor for the Justice Sector, which appears in the latest edition of the New Zealand Corrections Journal.

It shows that 292 children aged 0-5 had been exposed to 5 or more known family violence incidents within a year.

Lambie writes:

"Talking about the wellbeing of babies seems a long way from arguments about the prison muster, but that is where the evidence says we must begin."

This should be to the forefront of thinking while the controversy about uplifting Maori children plays out. There are certainly cases where Oranga Tamariki have been heavy-handed or overly rules-bound, and while social workers continue to be human beings, variation in the way they approach cases will exist. But there is also a great deal known about the circumstances some babies are being born into and it would be reprehensible not to act.

Steep decline in fraud prosecutions

Having scanned through the OIA responses mentioned below I found a couple of interesting tables. The first shows that fraud prosecutions are well down:

The reduction began before Labour became government. The decrease was 27% from 2016 to 2017; and 35% from 2017 to 2018. Have people suddenly become far more law-abiding?

The accommodation supplement is topical given high rents are always in the news.

At September 2018 there were 292,006 payments in place.
Two thirds were to beneficiaries; the rest to veterans, super-annuitants or non-beneficiaries.
66% were renting, 22% boarding and 11% owned their own home.
24% were receiving the maximum amount available.
8% were couples with children; 26% were sole parents with children; 57% were single.

And finally this caught my eye. Another accommodation problem that's been in the news but here's some stats:

Perhaps it isn't a 'problem' for the owners of ageing motels being displaced by better quality establishments.

Well done MSD

On June 27 I posted about MSD lagging behind in its publication of OIA responses at its website.

They have now got up responses from January and March 2019.

(Which does kind of beg the question, were there none in February?)

RNZ witch hunt finds ... reasonable numbers

RNZ is constantly on Oranga Tamariki's back trying to show them as a failing agency.

Oranga Tamariki published data not long ago detailing the number and nature of abuse/neglect cases happening to children in state care. I pointed out then that many children who are 'in state care' officially are nevertheless in the day-to-day of their parents or family members.

Today RNZ reports:

Oranga Tamariki released data showing its own staff have harmed children in care eight times in the space of six months: six cases of physical harm, and one each of sexual and emotional harm.

My immediate response is surprise at how low the number is.

'Children' can include individuals up to 18 years of age. Some will be incredibly difficult to handle. Doubtless they will require firmness; may provoke and may attack. Some will be pre-prison characters.

I would dearly love to know more about these cases but privacy dictates details can never be released.

But I don't see 8 cases in 6 months as a rod to use on the back of people doing extremely difficult work.

OIA response publishing - MSD lagging behind

Government departments have to make OIA responses public.

MSD has fallen off not posting anything since September 2018

Treasury is keeping up their latest posted is June 24 2019.

Corrections latest is also September 2018.

Now I have to go looking in places I don't normally lurk.

The Ministry of Health is doing well, particularly well, with an up-to-date concise display of information.

So is Education.

So what's with MSD in particular?

It has the largest expenditure of any government department and as such, impacts on thousands of lives.

Seems in keeping with their general philosophy of loafing off. Not really trying to get people into work. Not really trying to get fathers to take responsibility for their children. Not really trying to get clients to turn up for appointments.

Hoped the Minister would be pensioned off today but no such luck.

There will be war

Between them, the risk averse and the environmentalists are quite determined to severely reduce the quality of our lives to preserve the quantity.

The closure of amenities such as the Wellington Public library has a huge negative impact on thousands of regular users. Some of those people virtually lived there through the winter months. The church my husband infrequently attends in Eastbourne has been closed down due to earthquake risk. The Naenae pool which is quite iconic to those of us who grew up anywhere in the Hutt Valley and the backbone of Naenae's economy is closed until further notice. We've lost cinemas. Rising insurances due to earthquake risk (which are more real than rising seas at this stage) rob us of money we might spend on other pleasures - then again they might not if there is bugger all left to spend the disposable dollar on.

The environmentalists - AKA the climate-crisis calamitists - are steadily restricting dog exercise areas and ostracizing cats. At the same time SAFE - animal rights activists - would have horses become extinct as they try to shut down racing and rodeo. Perhaps that meshes in nicely with the other environmentalist - the vegan, who wants us all to desist with our love of meat and dairy. One even tried to explain to me why cheese is addictive and I should wean myself off it.

Need I mention cars, cabin cruisers in the sky, cheap clothes, cows, coal....and children?

Going childless is now the new demand from the environmentalists. The very, very best way to save the planet (with nobody left to inhabit it anyway). I expect no grandchildren.

But this morning I flew into an apoplexy. There will be war. I am now under notice that "companion pets are looking more and more like a selfish and unnecessary extension of a carbon footprint we should be going all out to reduce."

What is the vision of these guilt-tripping oppressive obsessives? A world where ageing childless pet-less people  can only go where their legs carry them (with no four-legged friend in tow)? Can only eat what they can grow from soil and barely heat their tiny houses?

No thank you. You can keep your horrid hands off my beloved dog. She is saner, more tolerant and infinitely better company than any grim and glum greenie. She stays.

Leaving a benefit lifts income but not life satisfaction

Which is probably a key finding for explaining long-term benefit dependency.

From a sample of 423 people, incomes and the life satisfaction ratings are plotted in the 150 days before and after leaving a benefit:

Source

What the heck is going on at WINZ?

What the heck is going on with WINZ?

According to advice given to the Welfare Expert Advisory Group in February 2019:

Source

Obviously here will be a time lag between writing the statement and publication but we can only assume that the percentage may now be as low as 10%??

Unbelievable.

Hood Aerodrome not

Have been following the horrible news today of  two light aircraft colliding just south of Hood Aerodrome in Masterton. I was flying there at the club a couple of years back and thinking one of the planes is the one I flew. It's not looking good. Tragic for the families.

But whoever put up the following photo is clueless. Someone who has never been south of Auckland perhaps:

Update: Corrected now

Outrageous lie from Tariana Turia

Dame Tariana Turia was interviewed by Ryan Bridge on Magic TalK yesterday evening regarding the removal of Maori children by Oranga Tamariki. Her words:

Dame Tariana calls this "overkill", and disputes Te Puni Kōkiri (the Ministry of Māori Development)'s statistics that Māori children are six times more likely to die from abuse and neglect than non-Māori."The stats aren't telling us that," she says. "In the last few years since 1993, we have had 83 non-Māori children killed, we have had 17 Māori children die, so the fact of it is this is an overkill when it comes to Māori families. Now if you don't want to call it racism, you can call it what you like."

Source

Source

Slightly muddied by the fact that the first set represent children under 15 and the second set, children under 19, combined they show that a total of 105 children (or youth) lost their lives in CAN (Child Abuse or Neglect) deaths over the 14 year period and 51 percent were Maori.

I take no pleasure in these stats but Turia needs pulling up.

How do lies like this happen?

Last week it was reported locally that a Dutch teenager was assisted to end her life. This was grasped by the end of life bill opponents in this country. I heard a little of the discussion on Magic Talk and turned it off tired of hearing people who want to run my life when I am quite happy to leave them be.

As it happens the report was incorrect. The girl died because she refused to eat and drink. Not uncommon for anorexics. She had been rejected from an end of life medical centre.

A little more searching answers my own question (and I've updated my original link). It appears a suspect source promulgated the original news story.

"According to multiple sources at British national newspapers, news outlets were alerted to the story by the newswire Central European News, which specialises in supplying unusual and quirky foreign stories to English-language news outlets.

CEN, which has previously been accused of providing unreliable information, did not immediately return a request for comment."

"Strong economies create wellbeing, not government"

From a plethora of commentary on the well-being budget this is my pick. The author, Bruce Cotterill, is unknown to me but that doesn't matter.


"The Wellbeing Budget left me uninspired and disappointed.

Don't get me wrong. There have been big allowances made for improving mental health services, which are long overdue. A substantial investment into the hospitals of our growing population is a good thing too.

It's just that when it comes to government services, and health in particular, I'm not convinced that much of the new money will get to the patients, and the others that need it.

To me, critical to well-being is a society where people are able to have aspirations and the education to support those goals.

It also means economic growth powered by business and industry that's supported by global demand for the goods and services we produce.

When business is growing and people are capable, we get a society that looks after itself.

Against that background, the trouble with the budget announcements is that we just parked another raft of expensive ambulances at the bottom of the cliff.

In other words, while I don't want to diminish the real needs in terms of mental health for example, the budget focus seeks to help those who have developed mental health problems, rather than stopping those problems from occurring.

Firstly, governments throwing a lot of money around is a inefficient way to get things done.

The trouble with most of this spending is that a lot of it will be chewed up with establishment costs and bureaucracy.

By the time they set up a couple of new departments within various ministries, design a new logo and letterhead, lease some offices and refit them, and establish the ministerial reporting lines, there could be little left for those who need the help.

What if we put some funding into ambulances at the top of the cliff?

We can fix a lot what's wrong, or even stop some mental health issues from occurring in the first place, by building an economy that is aspirational and growth-minded.

The foundation of doing so is education.

But education is a mess. It's been under-invested for a long time and it's starting to show. Principals are protesting at Government induced curriculum changes. Teachers are striking aggressively for higher pay.

Uninformed students who have been brainwashed by the liberal left are striking too for causes that many don't understand.

Imagine a society where all our kids – not just the privileged few – left our schools informed, educated and aspirational. And then imagine if those aspirations were met by a business community with equally passionate ambitions, and with a need to take on the educated talent on offer.

I spoke to someone who works close to the mental health sector.

She said that "too many kids leave school, or one of the myriad of underperforming tertiary skills development programmes, without the prospect of work".

Many can't get a job. Those that can, often only get something part-time, usually in retail or fast food, with no real prospects.

The trouble with those employers is they only call you when they need you. So, these kids sit around not knowing whether they will be required or not.

Often, they're not, and a feeling of unworthiness can quickly creep in.

Idle minds turn their attention to other pursuits, booze and drugs included. You can see where mental health difficulties can start.

If those kids have somewhere to go, a place that needs the skills and ideas they have developed, they will feel worthy indeed.

Our economy suffers from having a plethora of businesses doing low value stuff at a low level of productivity.

We continue to export logs with the bark on while we import kitset timber furniture or modular houses.

If you have the luxury of owning a house, and you need new window frames, just ask why they will take 12 weeks to be delivered.

It's because they're made overseas. And this is a country that exports timber. Lots of it. How stupid is this?

This need to build a productive economy is where governments, and the Budgets they so willingly trumpet, should start, but often fail.

Let's get education working. Build kids up. Make them believe in goals and aspiration. Feed them accurate information on the state of the world and give them the skills to participate in that world. Enable them to chase and achieve their dreams.

And then let's support and build a business community that can take on those youngsters, give them a career, encourage their greatness and celebrate what they can achieve.

Wellbeing doesn't happen because governments throw money at underprivileged minorities. Wellbeing happens when you create a society and an economy that enables people to help themselves."

Source

Bruce Cotterill is a company director and advisor to business leaders. He is the author of the book, "The Best Leaders Don't Shout". www.brucecotterill.com

"Sign of hopelessness"

This was in yesterday's DomPost. Most columns these days I scan or lose interest in rapidly. I'm not sure if that's a fault with me or the writers. Maybe a bit of both. But this one gripped me; made me profoundly sad. It's written by court reporter Marty Sharpe whose writing has touched a chord with me before.

No more Super for non-qualifying spouses

Below is a post I wrote in 2015:

Most people think you have to be 65 to qualify for NZ Super. But there is a group of individuals who receive Super as 'non-qualified' recipients. A minority are over 65 and don't meet necessary residency qualifications but almost 12,000 are under sixty-five; 3,689 are under 60.

Generally the male turns 65 and can reject the single rate ($345.72 net weekly) for two married rates (2 x $273.82 net weekly or $547.64 combined). The decision to include or exclude  lies with the Superannuitant. The effect is the government has to pay 58% more.

An OIA supplied the numbers at December 2014:




88 percent of non-qualifying spouses are female.

Here's the ethnicity breakdown:





It appears only partners in marriage or civil unions can receive the 'non-qualified' payment. That's borne out by the ethnicity breakdown. Maori have a  low marriage rate.

At the same date there were 650,636 Superannuitants aged 65 and over.  So just under 2 percent have a non-qualified spouse.

Annual payments to non-qualified spouses amount to $133 million.

Now that mightn't be a big deal against the total Super bill, but significant anomalies are occurring.

1/ For the purposes of an unemployment or sickness benefit, the law similarly recognises marriages and civil unions. However it also recognises de facto relationships. How long before under 65 year-old de facto partners of Superannuitants start pushing for Super payments?


 2/ In the case of unemployment or disability, the rate for two partners is exactly half of the single rate. For non-qualifying partners of Superannuitants the payment is 79 percent of the single rate. How long before partners of unemployed or disabled beneficiaries under 65 start challenging on the basis of discrimination? 

Beneficiary advocates are notoriously active so it surprises me that this hasn't already become an issue.

Perhaps most people aren't aware that under 65s can collect Super via their 65 or older husband (or more unusually, wife)?

Would appreciate hearing from readers whether they were aware of this. A simple 'yes' or 'no' would be fine.

Yesterday the government announced:

From 1 July 2020, the Government is closing the non-qualified partner provision, and removing the direct deduction of a government-administered overseas pension received by a superannuitant’s partner from that superannuitant’s NZ Super or the Veteran’s Pension...
The changes reflect society today. In most households both partners work. There is no longer a ‘principal breadwinner’ whose retirement marks the retirement of both partners.

Paying for three Labour bribes

(Left click to enlarge)

Source

Labour's universal bribes - Winter Energy and Best Start - account for almost $1 billion by 2023

Family Tax Credit ballooned by 39% in 2019 due to Families Package

Paid Parental Leave  reaches $500m in 2023 extending from 14 to 18 weeks initially and shooting up to 26 weeks in 2020

(All dependent on Labour winning next election of course though who would put money on National abolishing the bribes?)

The vilification of landlords

Yet another story in stuff about the woeful circumstances of a tenant because of the implied greed of landlords. As one person comments these "endless articles blaming landlords"  don't help anyone. Landlords are not raking it in.

 "As shown in Figure 1.3 and Appendix Table 3 rental investment yields have fallen gradually from 6% to 7% in 1997 to 3.5% to 5% in 2017. Such rates of return are now below mortgage interest rates and are close to low-risk deposit rates."

The 2018/19 yields will fall even lower as the current government imposes greater regulation and significant increased costs. Insurance and rates only go up.Yields at this level suggest that rents are not unfairly or unreasonably high. In fact they are too low. I would suggest that at least some landlords are holding rents down to keep good tenants.

Source

Marilyn Waring was bullied and became one

Marilyn Waring keeps popping up on the back of her new book.

I was speaking at a conference, my topic being the US Welfare Reforms and what NZ could learn from them. Just a couple of minutes into my presentation Marilyn Waring put her hand up. I had to stop. She said, "This isn't working for me." I can't remember how I responded. Probably just barreled on. Later she had another go and I remember now what it was about.

Here's a post I wrote in 2013.

Well. 

After years of trying to tell people that sole parents spend many, many years on benefit I see MSD has just released a statement containing this:

"...sole parents spend an average 15.8 years on benefit with a lifetime cost of $234,000."

I have repeatedly talked about Professor Bob Gregory's Australian research which found sole parents spend an average of 12 years on welfare not including benefits they may move to when they no longer had dependent children.

People have derided me for it in public forums. For instance Marilyn Waring sneeringly telling an audience I had included time spent on Super. Time and again politicians, welfare advocates, bloggers etc have sought to convince the population that the average time spent on the DPB is, most commonly, only about 3 years. They look at the available data but don't understand it.

Waring was a Professor of Public Policy at the time. Essentially it was her way or the highway and she plenty of fellow travellers. Their strategy then was to shut down by discrediting what they didn't like. And it continues today. My opposition to the DPB would possibly be classified as hate speech by some.

But I shake my head when I hear Marilyn Waring talking about the bullying she took. She knew how to dish it out.