Govt ignores own research

MSD monitors the effectiveness of its spending on employment assistance. The 2016/17 assessment has just been published.

"$149 million (72%) went on effective or promising employment assistance."

Not all of the spending is effective. Some results are "mixed" and some "negative".

But among the "effective and promising" interventions appears:

"Work obligation focused interventions: interventions that use work obligation requirements to ensure people are actively seeking employment."

In other words, sanctions. A failure to meet an obligation requires a consequence. Otherwise an obligation is meaningless.

In the year to December 2018, this government reduced the use of sanctions by 42.2 percent.

Brief comment on prison population

Based on the most recently available prison statistics the total muster is reducing. The PM says:

"We've seen about 1000 fewer people in our prisons, and so any work that we do on rehabilitation programmes ultimately does benefit Māori."

She must have more up-to-date stats than the public because the September 17 to September 18 reduction was only 418.

Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says:

"...tribes from Ngāti Whātua right through to Ngāti Kuri are working with the department to reduce the prison population in the north and support people when they emerge from prison."

Yet in September 2018 there were 625 prisoners in Northland Region Corrections facility. A year earlier there were 607.

The government is fixated on the prison population.

But they are ignoring where it begins. Births into unstable, dare I say it, unmarried, dysfunctional family situations. I blogged yesterday about Maori accounting for 93% of the increase in births to the year ending September 2018. Around a 1,000 more were ex-nuptial and 300 fewer nuptial.

Marriages (with proven greater longevity than de facto relationships) might not last, but they at least say something about parental commitment at the time of birth. There is no doubt that these babies have significantly lower risks of eventually becoming prisoners.

Maori births account for 93% of year-on-year increase

Ever-interested in the behavioural response to 'incentives' I was looking at recent birth data. Labour promised and delivered greater financial benefits for newborns and families with dependent children.

It is probably too soon to assess any response to this, especially as the latest data available is to September 2018, not December.

In the year to September 2018 there were 59,331 live births. An increase of 837 on the previous year.

Not particularly significant.

However Maori live births rose to 17,118 from 16,341 - an increase of 777.

So of the total increase 93% were Maori.

17,118 is also the highest number of Maori live births since 2012.

The increase is almost totally accounted for by Maori mothers aged 25-34.

Who should qualify for Super?

(Left-click to enlarge)

Sean Plunket ran a show attacking Super receipt today; those taking it while continuing to work, and any taking it when they don't need it. He personalised his attack using morning host Peter Williams, newly qualified.

He justified his argument through concern about inter-generational inequity. The baby boomers are stealing from the following generations.

I rang to make the point that in the 1990s some were making the same accusations about the generation born in the 1920s through 40s. David Thomson wrote a book called the Selfish Generations to this effect. These inter-generational inequities are probably swings and roundabouts.

Regarding Super, my view is that the qualifying age needs to go up to 67-68 with those physically incapable going on a Supported Living Payment. Anyone who is receiving Super and working is effectively paying for it themselves through their own tax. It's like WFF for the over 65s.

Some means-testing sounds good but it opens a can of worms just not worth opening.

Hawke's Bay headed for a 'labour shortage declaration'

What else would you take from today's release?

This is no more than an advance move to ward off criticism about the number of beneficiaries in the East Coast region where there are currently over 7,600 claiming an Unemployment Benefit (aka Jobseeker Support)

From memory, this is the third region to do so.

Historically Maori and Pakeha men moved around in search of work. At a guess, that work paid reasonably well because employers weren't having to meet the high levels of taxation required to meet social security. Maori may have been paid less because of communal living perceptions - and that was wrong.

But was it a model worse than today's?

Wealth redistributed voluntarily and constructively?

Individuals with a sense of worth, camaraderie and autonomy?

It wasn't perfect.

But is the replacement?

Maori perspective on welfare offices and procedures

PUAO-TE-ATA-TU (day break)
THE REPORT OF THE MINISTERIAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON A
MAORI PERSPECTIVE FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL WELFARE 1988

 "People felt the Department’s offices were unwelcoming and impersonal, lacked privacy and adequate soundproofing. Counters were seen as creating barriers between “them” and “us” and children were not catered for in waiting rooms."

"It was suggested that training programmes should be designed to raise the level of awareness of Maori culture and should also incorporate training in personal skills and some knowledge of New Zealand history. A compelling need was for front-line staff to be fully aware of the range of assistance available and to have the authority to make decisions and give authoritative advice."

Yesterday MSD released their latest attempts to consult with Maori about their experiences with WINZ and the responses are strikingly similar:

"You said that our offices needed to be brightened up and have
spaces where you could meet with your case managers privately.
You didn’t like open plan set ups as other people could easily
overhear your business. You want access to toilets and tea and
coffee facilities so that when appointments are running late, you
can freshen up and have a drink. You also wanted play areas and
changing facilities for your children and access to free Wi-Fi at
service centres. You didn’t mind the presence of security guards
and understood why they were there. However you said that
kaumātua or Māori wardens could also fill those roles as they were
less threatening to Māori and would likely diffuse situations before
they even began. With some site closures it has been harder for you
to get to other service centres."

"You said that it was stupid that we don’t tell you about all the different supports that you are entitled to receive when you register with us – instead we wait for you to ask."

"You told us you wanted to hear Māori being spoken/greetings | See Māori imagery around | Choose to have a Māori case worker | Be offered training on Māori things."

I can find no on-line data for benefit ethnicity during the 1980s. Currently Maori account for 36.4 percent of all working age beneficiaries. In 2003 the percentage  was 30.4 and in 1998 25.2 percent.

In 20 years the figure has risen from a quarter to well over a third.

Make what you will of that.

The best of times and the worst of times...

In recent history, the NZ unemployment rate saw the best of times in the latest quarter - December 2018.  It saw the worst of times when the Great Recession of 2008/09 took hold.

(Click on image to enlarge)


From a welfare viewpoint - the % of working-age dependent on a benefit - this is what the two extremes look like:

There is a 2 percentage-point variation between the two polar points.

Is 10 percent of the working age population dependent on a benefit now as good as it gets?

Here is some context for you to digest.

There was a decades-long period post 1938 (when Social Security was created) when the norm was consistently around 2 percent of the working age population dependent on taxpayers.

Now we are expected to celebrate 10 percent.

Sanction reduction extraordinarily inconsistent across country

Nationally, since December 2017, the number of benefit sanctions has reduced by 42 percent. But the reduction is extraordinarily inconsistent across the regions.

For instance, the East Coast region has seen a 70% reduction in sanction application whereas Northland beneficiaries have experienced only a 17% reduction.

These two regions represent the highest and lowest reductions. Yet they are reasonably similar in profile. Which leads to the conclusion that there is a degree of arbitrariness occurring in the decision-making.

There is also speculation that the increased sanctions are leading to an increase in the number of people receiving a Jobseeker benefit.

Is any correlation showing by comparing the regions? No.

Canterbury had the highest growth in Jobseeker numbers but one of the lower reductions in sanctions. Northland and EastCoast have virtually the same increase in JS benefits but the highest and lowest sanction reduction.

This doesn't conclusively disprove that fewer sanctions lead to more Jobseeker dependence simply that other weightier factors are in play.

I come back to the glaring inconsistency between Northland and East Coast. Why has the East Coast taken a much softer line than Northland? 

Whatever your feelings are about welfare, beneficiaries should be entitled to a consistent application of rules.

Unplanned pregnancies

NewstalkZB reports that NZ has a "shocking" rate of unplanned pregnancies, 6th in the OECD apparently. There is almost certainly a link between this and our high rates of child poverty, neglect and abuse.The major reason given for this state of affairs is that long-acting reversible contraceptives are far more effective than other forms of contraception but not financially accessible for many.

Coincidentally yesterday I was studying the dramatically increased rate of hardship assistance granted in the past couple of years which the left say indicates greater need. It may just indicate that under the changed culture at WINZ - far fewer sanctions for instance - that fewer requests for hardship assistance are declined.

But I noted one interesting stat.

Of 344,771 grants in the September 2018 quarter only 41 were for long acting reversible contraceptives. (0 in December but I'm picking that is a delay in reporting.)

If the latter number increased substantially the former should fall.

Benefit numbers continue to climb

Released today, benefit numbers continue to climb even as so many industries are experiencing shortages of workers. The aged-care sector, and the lack of labour resource is dominating talkback today.

Yes, there is a regular seasonal rise to the end of the December quarter. However at December 2017 there were almost 10,000 fewer beneficiaries than at December 2018.

All of the increase is in Jobseeker Support. Heard on radio this morning Shane Jones' trees will not be planted because there aren't enough people to plant them. Travelled around the North Island over summer and saw multiple signs for workers - apply within.

And the reason for this according to MSD:

Cancellations
The number of benefits cancelled has decreased by 4,136 from the December 2017 quarter, to 35,710 in the December 2018 quarter. Most of this decrease came from a decreased number of Jobseeker Support cancellations. Obtaining work is the main reason for benefit cancellations, however this reason fell by 2,682 when compared to the December 2017 quarter.

So the upshot is New Zealand is a country rich in work opportunities yet one in ten people can't support themselves.

Update: Minister's headline: Benefit rates remain low

Thursday, 17 January 2019, 10:49 am

Press Release: New Zealand Government

ACT and National respond

Socialists describe the junior doctors' strike

"The doctors’ strike is part of an upsurge of working class struggle internationally in opposition to brutal austerity measures imposed over the past decade."

The idea that doctors are part of the working class is a hoot.

So is the idea that NZ has undergone "austerity measures".

This isn't Cuba or France.

This is New Zealand under a government primarily led by a party puppet-stringed by the unions. The strings might break but they will be tested.

Road spikes kill

In 2007 the police introduced a new kind of road spike that, according to the NZ Herald,"....can penetrate all tyre types and are designed to prevent blowouts by allowing for the slow release of air - allowing drivers to come to a safe and controlled stop."

It's ironic that as I read that article a headline is moving across the top of the page informing that three lives were lost in a car fire resulting from a crash into trees after police lay road spikes to stop a speeding vehicle in Christchurch last night.

There is a sound argument to be made for protecting lives that speeding vehicles may endanger. But what about the lives of the passengers in these vehicles? And indeed the life of the driver, foolish in the extreme but young and impetuous. In other scenarios a strong case is made to get these young people safely through to adulthood because their brains don't mature until mid twenties. Are road spikes a legitimate part of that endeavour?

Questions with no satisfactory answers I am afraid.

And pity the poor officer who made the decision to lay the spikes. He has a life sentence of anguish to live with.

Crime down

RNZ reports:

The country's first crime and victims survey suggests almost two million crimes were committed last year, about seven times the number reported to police.

This isn't the country's first crime and victims survey. It may be a new format or design but over the years the Crime and Safety Surveys have consistently shown far higher rates of offending than police recorded crime rates. In that respect the results of the latest are barely newsworthy.

What is of interest is comparisons to earlier years. RNZ did not pursue that. The latest shows that:

The survey suggested there were just under 1.8 million criminal offences in the past 12 months - that compares to about 256,000 reported to the police.

The 2014 survey found:

 1.9 million incidents of crime were identified in 2013
– down 30% from 2.7 million in 2008.

So the trend is down.

You wonder why the RNZ reporter didn't bother to look for the salient story.

Relationship breakdown most common reason for homelessness

Thanks to Bob McCoskrie who sent me this Australian research which finds that relationship breakdown is  the most prolific cause of homelessness. While public perception is that drug taking is the major cause, when people who have actually experienced homelessness are asked, the reasons given are quite different:

"....this research ... shows that people who have experienced homelessness have a more reliable sense of why they found themselves in that situation than the general public.
They cited ‘relationship breakdown and conflict’ as the main cause for homelessness six times more often than substance use (64 per cent vs 10 per cent). In contrast the general public cites ‘marriage or relationship breakdown’ as being the main cause for homelessness less often than that of substance use."

(Naturally public perceptions and research findings are predicated on the definition of homelessness.)

Are talk hosts like politicians?

This personal question arose on the back of my comments regarding the demise of Radio Live.

Hosts I like and listen to are genuine. Others are taking a pay cheque to be a mouthpiece and channel the chat. It's not hard to discern the difference.

Which led me to reflect on a parallel with MPs.

I aspired to the House of Representatives twice (with less enthusiasm on the second occasion).

My action was driven by my convictions about how destructive the welfare state is.

But many successful aspirants are purely concerned with the machinery of governing and representing. They are practitioners. It's comfortable (though not for the lazy) to assume this role. These aren't troubled questioners. They are cogs in the machine.

But what happens when we have too many cogs and not enough questioners?

Worse, what happens when the questioners turn into cogs overpowered by the sheer size of the machine?

I fear that would have been my fate if I had become an MP.

Link between poverty and marital status

This graph is from the US. NZ likes to think it is 'classless.' It isn't.

I have to say though, this graph raises questions. The labeling is confusing.

On further investigation I found it is a conglomerate of three separate graphs.

The blue column is  'Share of Adults Age 18–55 Who Are Currently Married, by Class'

The green column is 'Share of Adults Age 18–55 Who Are Currently Cohabitating, by Class'

The red column is 'Share of Children Born out of Wedlock, by Mother’s Class'

Personally I wouldn't have graphed them together because it presumes a relationship between the columns. Labelling 'Children born out of wedlock'  as 'Baby first' implies their mothers (and fathers?) went on to marry or cohabit. Also, some of those currently married or cohabiting will be childless.

But sticklers for accuracy don't necessarily make great communicators - visually or otherwise.

I'll miss Mitch Harris

Radio Live is kaput

Haven't listened to them during the day for a long time. Not since Sean Plunket departed.

Back in the day Paul Henry was a great morning host (or was that when they were Radio Pacific?) Anyway, before he made the transition from normal human to over-weening human

JT and Willie was listenable when JT was steering but when Willie was in control,  an air of flippant insincerity prevailed.

When JT departed and Alison Mau joined Willie she brought an ugly element of female bullying to the afternoon. Opinions she cared not for were loudly talked over.

Why they picked up Nissen Windell (correct me please for I have never paid enough attention to remember) is unfathomable.

But Mitch. Mitch Harris combined a compelling mix of humour, self-deprecation, true two-way communicative skills and great musical appreciation and knowledge.

By no means a religious listener, many a night I have drifted off to sleep to his thoughtful utterances and  dulcet tones. I'll miss that.

Update: The idea of a radio station that combines talk and music - in this case Magic Talk - is doomed IMO. If I want to hear how people are reacting to something topical I'll tune in to NewstalkZB; if I want music, I tune into Coast. And even Coast irritates when the hosts start prattling. Most music stations like to boast they have more music and less chat because that's what the punters want. A talk/music channel is a hair-brained idea.

Making light of a serious subject

In my recent paper about  Imprisonment and Family Structure,  I touched on the phenomenon of multi-partner fertility and how it increases prison populations.

If you don't know what multi-partner fertility looks like...

Updating artist blog

Just updating artist blog with this pastel of Wesney, who is now the grand age of 15.

Unemployment numbers that don't stack up

The unemployment rate has dropped to 3.9% - a great result for the government.

But since the non-publication of latest official child poverty data due to "uncertainty" and a "lack of confidence" in the Statistics NZ  Household Economic Survey sampling, I am wary. More wary than I was anyway.

The unemployment data comes from the Statistics NZ  Household Labour Force Survey.

I had a dig into the tables looking for any stand out development.

Here's one.

In the Manawatu-Wanganui region, the unemployment rate (2nd to last column above) between June and Sept 2018  dropped three whole points from 6.6 to 3.6 percent.

This should be reflected in benefit statistics, no?

It isn't. The number on Jobseeker Support rose.

I checked out the number for the Manawatu-Wanganui region - a different stat which slightly more closely matches the region surveyed in the HLFS.

In June 2018 there were 8,352 people on a Jobseeker benefit: in Sept 2018, 8,532.

The Taxpayer's Union has also questioned the broader opposing trends.

We can measure unemployment three ways: through the HLFS, through the numbers on unemployment benefit and via the Census. Obviously the last count is too infrequent and time-lags terribly.

Just be aware that the positive HLFS result is not mirrored in the benefit data result.

The HLFS result is probably a facet of the growing working age population and labour force. The denominator is increasing faster than the numerator. But it could also be a 'rogue' result.