Does Sam win ... yes she does!

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Sam  was the winner of a trip to the NZ Fashion Weekend in late September. I watched the show on Friday heart in mouth despite knowing the outcome (she arrived back at Wellington airport with a beautiful bunch of flowers). She was thoroughly surprised when the judges said her name, and suitably humble I am happy to report. Her model was also a Year 9 girl, but 5' 11" and in (ginormous!) heels and they look adorable together - very much the long and the short of it.

The On Demand replay is here

And, from Sam, thanks so much to all of those people who voted her into the Top 25. You made it possible.

Remand population grows significantly

I wouldn't agree with Kim Workman's philosophical approach to crime and related matters but his statistical stuff is sound. Yesterday he delivered a submission to the Law and Order  select committee containing the following:

“In the last ten years, the sentenced prisoner population increased by 33.7%, while the remand population increased by 116%.” Said Mr Workman, “Around 56 percent of those remanded in custody did not go on to serve a custodial sentence. We remand offenders in custody at a rate higher than other comparable countries, with the exception of the United States.
“Maori defendants are nearly twice as likely as their European counterparts to be remanded in custody. The unanswered question is whether this discrepancy occurs because of differential offending patterns by Maori, a lack of cultural responsiveness, or the negative impact of laws, structures, processes and decision making criteria. There has been no in-depth research on this issue since 1973, and it is a matter of urgency.”

Following the link to his full submission was unsuccessful but it did take me to Rethinking's website. My first visit. It's a well designed site. Just a quick excerpt which describes Maori offending in a way I haven't seen before;

 At every stage in the criminal justice process, the outcomes for Māori are generally more severe than they are for Pakeha. Māori are less likely to receive diversion or cautions and are more likely to be sentenced to prison. Although New Zealand's imprisonment rate is 199 people per 100,000, the rate for Māori is closer to 700 per 100,000. Māori make up over 50% of New Zealand's prison population and over 60% of its female prison population.

Asset Sale poll

All I hear from commentators, politicians, the media etc is the majority of New Zealanders are against the asset sales. How do they know? This NewstalkZB poll doesn't bear out the claim.

Do you support the Government's asset sales legislation?

• Yes 50 %
• No 47 %
• Unsure 3 %

Truth Column Friday July 19

My Truth column for July 19 is now on-line:

A local bus stop was recently tagged with ‘Aoteoroa is not for sale’. I was tempted to sneak out in the dead of night and add, ‘No more house sales to immigrants’ beneath.

Because that is the implication and most would find the idea abhorrent. 

Now we have, ‘No asset sales’ which is equally sweeping, superficial and emotive.  The reality is the NZ government is carrying huge overseas debt and it needs to pay some down. If it doesn’t, its future ability to borrow to fund everyday, vital services could be endangered. 

We are all watching the situations unfolding in various European countries, which are either bankrupt or verging on it. That poses the question: Would New Zealanders prefer austerity over asset sales?

Read more


Other Truth columns here

Dads matter - an understatement

Rodney's Herald on Sunday column today is about his Dad and how important our Dads are. How they guide us and set an example. I am also blessed to have one such Dad. And I can bring to mind two people who lost their Dads in the past year who felt exactly like Rodney and I about them. Good men themselves.

Then I had lunch with a friend just returned from where her father lives who didn't even visit him. Can't abide him and was forced to explain to the aunties why. Because he violently abused her mother and siblings and she will not forgive him. Never. And without him she'd gone badly off the rails as a youngster (not that she ever seems to particularly rue her 'colourful' past.)

Last week Sam took a photo of her Dad and me as part of a social studies project. It's something to do with photos of everyday things that matter - a favourite meal for instance - to send to a school in another country. I wondered out loud how many of her fellow pupils would be able to send a photo of their Mum and Dad together. She in turn identified out loud which friends could. About half. I told her how when I was her age I didn't know anyone, not a friend, not a neighbourhood kid, who didn't live with both parents. Bar one whose mother had died.

Isn't that a phenomenally rapid  social change. One generation. And we know the downsides. The wealthier kids materially weather the upheaval  better but that's about it. And I'm not condemning people who split. Intolerably unhappy relationships should be abandoned. But the widespread nature of breakdown goes far beyond what should naturally occur. Or what would naturally occur without government interference.

Getting around the DPB work-test rules

The table below shows that most grants of a DPB are to people transferring within the system or who have been on welfare previously - 71 percent to be precise. I asked the Minister under the Official Information Act:

1/ In 2011 how many second-time or subsequent grants for the DPB were to a caregiver with more than one dependent child; a youngest child under 12 months old and who had been off benefit for between 12 - 48 months? Their answer:

The point of my question? I am trying to ascertain how many people will qualify for a further 5 years of welfare before work-testing because they had a subsequent child off welfare. 437 is a starting figure.

Not included in this figure is for instance someone who left under 12 months ago and returned with a newborn.

The Ministry also qualified my 'off benefit' as 'off DPB-related' which also narrows the field.

The point is, as it stands, as long as a baby isn't added to a benefit the caregiver won't be work-tested until the baby is 5. Some people are clever. They have already forced the Ministry to pay the DPB to both parents if the parents split custody of their children. So there are two benefits to play around with when considering which one to 'add' a subsequent child to.

As in any group of people, there are those who will abide by the rules because they are honest and well-motivated, and that includes people on welfare. But there are others who will play the system for all it's worth. Ironically those are the very people these new rules are supposed to positively influence.






table DP.3: Periods since clients last received any main benefit

Period since client last received any main benefit	2006/2007	2007/2008	2008/2009	2009/2010	2010/2011
	Domestic Purposes Benefits granted to working-age clients1
None (clients transferring within the benefit system)2	9,447	10,035	10,654	11,416	11,071
Under 12 months	9,900	10,567	10,876	9,683	9,963
1–2 years	3,289	3,938	4,483	3,656	3,198
2–4 years	3,061	3,393	4,365	4,201	3,307
Had not received a main benefit in the previous 4 years	7,774	8,561	11,433	11,660	10,533
Total granted to working-age clients	33,471	36,494	41,811	40,616	38,072
	Domestic Purposes Benefits granted to other clients1
Total granted to other clients	940	1,054	1,100	942	799
	Total Domestic Purposes Benefits granted1
Total	34,411	37,548	42,911	41,558	38,871

Forget "fair" and focus on the fiscal restraint

David Shearer says that Mondayisation of public holidays and longer Paid Parental Leave are "fair to families".

But these bills aren't fair to employers and most taxpayers. They are both an additional cost on the economy. And the timing is bloody awful.

Leaves me in no doubt that National was the better governing party to weather a protracted recession. That's not to say they couldn't do  better.

The passage of these bills would indicate that New Zealanders are no better than other head-in-the-sand Europeans.

Two coroner's reports

The NewstalkZB 9 o'clock news (Wellington - not the Network because I have checked the replay) reported that Gary Evans found Macsyna King "had no involvement in the death of her twins."

Contrast that to a coroner's report last week that found two good Samaritans had contributed to the death of Iraena Asher.

I am going on media hearsay but these findings seem utterly incongruous.

Using a benefit as camouflage

Here's a perfect example of people using a benefit as camouflage (albeit not a very successful one). I mean they surely didn't need the money.

Three solo mothers, one of whom is known locally as "the queen of green" and is seven months pregnant, have been sent to prison for a cannabis operation that netted them up to $340,000 in four months last year for selling "tinnies" from a state house in Napier.
A "tinny" is a small tinfoil-wrapped package containing between 0.6 and 1.2 grams of cannabis, which sells for about $20.
Business was so good during the four months that they sold a $20 tinny every minute and the number of customers so great that their cars would clog up the street...... The four offenders, who are all beneficiaries, appeared for sentencing before Judge Tony Adeane in Napier District Court last week.

Truth column July 13

My Truth column for July 13 is now on-line.  

Some people on the dole fail drug-tests and subsequently miss out on a job. So they stay on welfare. Is that OK?  The current government doesn’t think so. That’s why new legislation proposes sanctions – a reduction in benefit – when it happens. 


The legislation does not propose drug-testing all beneficiaries as a condition of eligibility for ongoing support. That’s jungle drum stuff. There’s another problem with benefits and substance abuse though.

Read more

Other Truth columns here

It's OK to henpeck and ridicule men

I just watched a SUBWAY TV advertisement for some new healthy product which is "girlfriend approved". For chrissakes. I immediately said to my daughter, do you want to be  the gatekeeper of what your boyfriend eats?

Men have always been hen-pecked but why make it standard operating procedure? Oh, but I forget.

A major newspaper recently crowed over  women now being smarter than men.

I can't help but notice that when IQ differences between ethnicities are suggested, all hell breaks loose. But claim a difference between genders, ie men are 'dumber', and that's fine and dandy. Imagine an equivalent headline to the linked story, "Sorry Whites, Blacks are smarter."

Why are sensitivities about ethnicity - fizzing amongst feminists especially -  absent  for gender?

I don't really care if Subway want to advertise "plus salad in case the missus is looking". It must work for them. It just bugs me that political correctness is applied so selectively. Look at the fuss from the feminists over  the Tui TV ads that have, they say, a "very corrosive effect on women's self-worth". Are they going to get upset about TV ads that make men look incapable of thinking for themselves?

Lazy All Black NZ

I thought NZ women were amongst the most promiscuous in the world. Doesn't sex count as physical activity?


Chart source.

Battles won Banks - not wars

The Social Security (blah, blah, blah) Bill passed yesterday. John Banks spoke (I was going to say on behalf of the ACT Party but not sure if there is one any more).

After summarising ACT's long crusade against welfare (nothing to do with me and everything to do with Muriel Newman)  his closing sentence had my eyes rolling backwards.

This bill is the arrival of that long march, and I am glad to be supporting it as Leader of the ACT Party.

Get off the grass John. This legislation represents some new attempts for New Zealand. It's a date on what will be a very long time-line.

More big beneficiary families needed!

Here's a silly letter if ever I read one:

Where to start (in 200 words or less).

Dear Editor

According to Allan Kirk (Letters, July 19) New Zealand needs more children, so large families born and raised on a benefit isn't a problem. He thinks the Social Development Minister's concern should be the well-being of the beneficiary and her children, not their dependent status. Presumably that means directing rather more resources at families on welfare.  This requires either higher taxes (perhaps from parents limiting their family size to one they can afford)  or less spending elsewhere. As the government is already fighting to stave off a credit down-rating and  disastrous loss of borrowing capacity, it can hardly find millions - or billions - more to meet Mr Kirk's urging.

As it stands children who are raised long-term on welfare, often those in large families, experience inter-generational dependence, particularly  females who go on to repeat their mother's life story. It is welfare dependence that keeps people out of the labour force, non-productive and unable to make a contribution to the upkeep of an ageing population.

It is arguable anyway whether the country needs a higher birth rate to meet future demand. More immigration has got to be a better option than paying people to have children.

DPB income versus working income

I've blogged the second and third graphs for a reader who wants to compare the NZ situation with the US. (Specific data can be found at Work and Income. Basic DPB rate here Accommodation Supplement here and a plethora of extra help here. Then I suppose you will have to get tax rates and WFF tax credit rates from the IRD website.)

The first graph is from the American Enterprise Institute. Two and three are from MSD, NZ. They aren't directly comparable but illustrate the same problem.

 

Welfare reform questions in Parliament yesterday

There were two Parliamentary questions yesterday relating to welfare reform. The first was from a government MP about the youth reforms. Turns out they are seeking to defer the implementation date of legislation. But only slightly. I'm not surprised given the breakneck speed welfare reform legislation has been going through the various processes. Here's a reminder about what the youth reforms do:

Hon PAULA BENNETT (Minister for Social Development): The bill makes changes to put in place total wraparound support for young people—those who are on benefit and those who are not on benefit—including young teen parents. Currently, we just pay these young people who are on a benefit and leave them to it, with very little follow-up and very little support around them. We are putting a youth provider alongside each young person to support them, manage their benefit, and provide parenting and budgeting assistance, as well as ensuring they are in education, training, or work-based learning.

The second was a cost-quibbling question From Labour. Bennett got a bit stroppy with Ardern:

Jacinda Ardern: Does she have any capacity to fund phase two of her welfare reforms, given Budget documents show that the Ministry for Social Development struggled to fill a $700 million budget shortfall this year, and stated that “the estimated costs of phase two are [even] more uncertain than phase one.”?
Hon PAULA BENNETT: I am delighted that the member is waking up to the fact that these are tough times. Yes, the department has struggled to find $700 million in projected costs from within the department, but we did—but we did—and that has been hard work. We will find the savings that are needed for bill No. 2, because we fundamentally believe that they will make a difference for New Zealanders and their lives and their outcomes. That is what we are working towards.

Meanwhile out of Parliament an accommodation provider is getting stroppy with Bennett:

Social Development Minister Paula Bennett has been told to "get off her fat arse" and visit a caravan park she complained was unfairly hiking rents for "substandard" accommodation. The Waitakere MP yesterday singled out a caravan park in her electorate - Western Park Village - as "very expensive for what I'm sure most New Zealanders would see as quite substandard living". But the park owner, Darryll Heaven, said they did everything they could for many tenants that were forced upon them by Work and Income. "That is absolute bulls . . . That really annoys me because she won't get off her fat arse - she's only 500 metres away - to come down and see us. We've got a dozen staff and we're working 24 hours a day to control the place. She doesn't understand that and if she thinks we're ripping her off, come and have a look at our bottom line any time she likes."

The man has a preoccupation with bottoms.

To a point the accommodation supplement does act as a subsidy to landlords, but WFF 'top-ups' act as a subsidy to employers. So it is ironic that it is Labour driving a campaign against the AS from this standpoint. Correct me if I am wrong but isn't it the left that believe state redistribution is at the heart of a 'just and fair' society? The trouble is they have never been able to figure out how to stop confiscated monies flowing back to source.

US welfare reform loopholes

From The Washington Post and tagged "Big Government" (wouldn't it be great if we had a mainstream newspaper tagging stuff similarly?)


 [The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families bill] incentivized states to create welfare-to-work programs, trying to transition Americans from government dependency to financial solvency.

But states quickly acted to poke holes in that legislation, calling the following activities “work” for purposes of the statute: bed rest, personal care activities, massage, exercise, journaling, motivational reading, smoking cessation, weight loss promotion, participation in parent-teacher meetings, or helping friends or family with household tasks and errands.

This was idiotic. So in 2005, Congress closed the loophole, over the objections of then-Senator Obama.

Now, Obama has walked back the 2005 legislation, using his Department of Health and Human Services to unilaterally waive those work requirements.

Read more: http://times247.com/articles/obama-admin-motivational-reading-journaling-qualify-for-welfare#ixzz20r8QUYay

Judge no dope

The Taranaki Herald had a report that made me laugh out loud. Thought you might enjoy it too.

A Waitara cannabis dealer told a judge he had turned his life around.
Benjamin Teika, 27, spoke directly to the judge yesterday in New Plymouth District Court, saying he was deeply ashamed of his offending, and had taken himself out of Waitara and had been drug-free for 22 days.
"I'm bummed out that I've done this," Teika said.
"You're bummed out that you got caught," Judge Allan Roberts countered, telling him to "cut the waffle".

Success!

Thanks so much everyone for supporting Sam!

She has just found out she is in the Top 4 and will be flying to Christchurch next week for the final judging. One of her designs will be made and modelled and the winner then gets to attend NZ Fashion Week.

It'll be live on the Erin Simpson Show TV2, 4-30pm Tuesday July 24.

Quite an adventure for a 13 year-old who last went on a commercial flight aged three.

Truth Column July 5

My July 5 Truth column is now on-line.

The issue of false rape allegations is a nasty business. FBI data reveals one in four primary suspects is excluded by forensic DNA testing. These cases are circumstantially clear-cut. But what of alleged ‘rapes’ where the act isn’t disputed but consent is? 

More 

More Truth columns here