From the smack-free utopia of Aoteoroa...

(Robert's photo-shopping)

Trotter attacks ACT

Chris Trotter has probably done ACT a favour today by attacking them in his Dominion Post column. His point of objection - ACT's slogan to "turn back the clock", as expressed by ACT's number 5 candidate David Garrett. Trotter insists that to turn back the clock to the low crime, full employment New Zealand of the 50s ACT would need to restore the cradle-to-grave welfare state that it rails against. Let's examine that.

Welfare creates a cycle. Just as the economic cycle exists and seasonal cycles exist. But the cycle is far more protracted than either of these. The 1830s in the Britain saw a peak of the welfare cycle, that is, it was at its most destructive. Reforms were instituted which essentially abolished outdoor relief - cash payments to the unemployed and others unable to make their own living. The choice was work or workhouse.

This was the mood that prevailled as the early settlers left Britain and other European countries of origination. When they arrived in New Zealand they resisted calls for establishing rate-payer funded welfare although provinces funded what was called charitable aid through hospitals. The rightful provider of welfare was considered to be the family.

But as the cycle progressed and advocacy for an old age pension and thereafter more and more benefits won the day, dependency and slowing productivity started to grow. Societies gradually buy into what's on offer. Values are changed as in the transformation from the morals-based non-abused welfare state (up to the 60s) to the entitlement based highly-abused welfare state, where everyone wants a slice because they are owed. And when their slice isn't big enough resentment and a breakdown in cohesion results. Dysfunction and crime grow.

So I contend we are at another destructive peak in the welfare cycle and have been since the early nineties. Which is why we need to pare it back. And soon.

Trotter is mistaken. More welfarism won't improve matters. But I do agree that we cannot turn back the clock either. Values have changed too much. We can however go forward by acknowledging how much conditions for women have improved (the DPB is unnecessary) how private insurance for unemployment tends to build in fewer disincentives (the dole should go) how the best results in helping the poor come from voluntary one-on-one efforts (harness the potential of our active and youthful ageing population). What we don't want is a reintroduction of tariffs, subsidies, and all the other protectionist facets of phoney job creation Trotter moots.

Yes. Being attacked by a luddite like Trotter shouldn't hurt at all.

Inner Strength

If you can start the day without caffeine,

If you can always be cheerful, ignoring aches and pains,

If you can resist complaining and boring people with your troubles,

If you can eat the same food every day and be grateful for it,

If you can understand when your loved ones are too busy to give you any time,

If you can take criticism and blame without resentment

If you can ignore a friend's limited education and never correct her/him,

If you can resist treating a rich friend better than a poor friend,

If you can conquer tension without medical help,

If you can relax without liquor,

If you can sleep without the aid of drugs,















...Then You Are Probably The Family Dog

National's lost opportunity

Katherine Rich delivered her valedictory speech to parliament yesterday after three terms as a National MP.

Rich said her "annus horribilis" was 2005, when her disagreement over Brash's views on welfare led to her sacking as welfare spokeswoman and her temporary demotion from the front bench. "Demotion clearly wasn't a career highlight but it was preferable than trying to explain why I, a well-paid mother with all the supports in the world, intended telling a DPB (domestic purposes benefit) mum to leave her baby in childcare to net less than half the minimum wage," she said.

And in making the issue about herself she lost the battle.

Katherine's circumstances were, in fact, irrelevant.

At a recent Grey Power meeting two women talked to me afterwards. They broached the subject. We agree with the letters you write about the DPB, they said. We were both in favour of the DPB when it was brought in. We thought it would be good for mothers and their children. But it has gone too far. Too many are now choosing it as a lifestyle, they said. And that is not good for their children.

Simply put society cannot have it both ways. Unless the DPB incentives are removed the problem of child poverty - spiritual and material - will persist.

There is no need to punish those already on the DPB. But there is a desperate need to tell those who are not, that lifestyle welfare is no longer an option. We have to turn off the welfare tap as the first and most urgent action.

In Katherine's 2004 welfare paper, Saving the next generation from welfare dependency, she wrote;

National is the only party that can make and implement difficult welfare decisions.

Unfortunately she couldn't. Brash could have but that is now all a tragically lost opportunity.

But I wish her all the best for life post-parliament. I am sure she is relishing the prospect.

Politics sans policy

People I talk with or listen to are heartily sick of politics without policy. There is no sense of enjoyment or participation about the coming election. Most just want to see the back of it. The common complaint is, what about the important stuff? What about the things that matter? I've commented before about the media's role in that dearth.

So last night's debate about ICT policies was a refreshing experience and congratulations to TV7. It almost reinvigorated me. But why aren't we seeing more of this kind of debate? The contest of ideas instead of the interminable he said, she said, he did, she did stuff. A friend said to me yesterday about 90 percent of the New Zealand electorate is dysfunctional when it comes to governance and politics and thought they no longer deserved the time he had been putting in for years trying to spread better ideas.I hope he saw last night's debate. What a great result for ACT, especially after the supercilious, smarmier-than-smarmy-from-Palmie, David Cunliffe said nobody cares about what the leader of a 1 percent party thinks. Clearly they did.

Quote of the night from Nanny National;

Question; "Why should the taxpayer who can't even afford a PC pay for broadband to every home"

Maurice Williamson; "Because that's the way we deliver the new citizen of the future."

Life in New Zealand

Somewhere a teacher works in an extremely high risk industry by night. Her health and her safety are however her business and so is how she chooses to earn an extra buck. By day she takes photographs of kid's lunch boxes and makes phone calls to parents warning them of the dangers of peanut butter sandwiches and fat-saturated chippies. At least that is what the Ministry of Education tells her to do.

When I was a kid I just couldn't get into Alice in Wonderland. Its preposterousness went beyond entertainment. So does this.

A line in the sand

It seems to me that nobody would willingly argue with the Sensible Sentencing Trust's championing of victim's rights. However also given consideration must be potential victims and their rights to be safe.

Drugs are involved in a great deal of crime, whether they create an unquenchable thirst for money to fund habits leading to burglary and dishonesty crimes or they induce behaviour changes that lead to crimes of recklessness and/or violence or they are a mix of both. The traditional western response is to attempt to eradicate drugs, except where a majority also enjoy indulging in them ie alcohol. That attempted eradication is causing more crime than it is preventing.

If you don't believe me look at the one case whereby we have de facto legalising of a highly addictive drug - heroin. The methadone programme is accepted not as a great success in weaning people of heroin but as a effective deterrent to crime. This programme, which caters to over 4,000 addicts, sticks out like dog's. It is the one exception to the overriding rationale behind the war on drugs. But it would appear lawmakers refuse to learn anything from it.

Instead we continue to create more crime rather than reduce it by acceptance and accommodation of drug use. Hell's bells. What a wet liberal I will be labelled as. One of those pesky ACT liberals who cause problems for the ACT conservatives.

ACT appears to have linked itself to the SST. I have never seen or heard the Sensible Sentencing Trust back an end to prohibition. And any failure to do so actually condones the creation of more victims. Upping the ante will only worsen crime in New Zealand. Add to that the insane welfare policies NZ pursues (ACT's opposition to which is the main reason I support them) and we are never going to see the kind of safety and security alluded to at their law and order launch yesterday.

Maori Party policy - dreamland

According to the NZ Herald today;

The Maori Party, meanwhile, reiterated its hopes of removing gst on food and scrapping tax on income under $25,000. Speaking on TV One's Agenda programme yesterday, Maori Party MP Hone Harawira dismissed suggestions that those two policies alone would cost $5 billion and said they could be funded by the tax on cigarettes.

I have blogged before about the flight of fantasy that masquerades as Maori Party policy.

The tax on cigarettes, last time I checked, is around $1 billion. A black market already exists. Massively hike up current taxation on cigarettes and tobacco and all that will happen is less tax will be collected. And the gangs will get another gift.

Perhaps Hone could arrange for that to be their Waitangi Tribunal settlement.

Campaigning

Yesterday I represented ACT at the Wellington Wairarapa School Trustees conference in Wellington. Other candidates on the panel were Allan Peachey, National MP and Education spokesperson, Grant Robertson, Wgtn Central Labour Candidate and Vaughan Smith, United Future Wgtn, who is the son of Murray Smith, Hutt South UF Candidate. Something of a breakthrough occurred for me when I was asked to speak for around 5 minutes and had nothing prepared. We were advised earlier it was a question and answer format but the chair, ex Listener writer Dennis Welch changed that.

Having two children in the education system - one in the state and one in the private system - and being a keen advocate for vouchers, made the task fairly easy. When I touched on the subject of secondary schools and lack of choice, namely the not uncommon reluctance to send one's child to Hutt Valley High, I was loudly interrupted by a school trustee from that board. It's a great school, she countered. The bad reports are all a media beat up, she said. I responded that I hadn't said it wasn't but it is TOO BIG. It does not suit every child's needs. That is the crux of the problem. State high schools take no account of children's individuality, needs and strengths.

Which took me into Rodney's championing of the Corelli School for Arts right down to accepting a part in their school production (when was the last time anyone wanted Trevor Mallard in their school play?) and why ACT's voucher policy would see schools like this flourish. As always there was considerable interest in the idea. Some cynicism, some approval but no hostility.

The ERO got a right royal drubbing and I now doubt their ability to provide the kind of vital information parents need. The decile rating system is still controversial with trustees worried about the low expectations decile 1,2 and 3 schools build in teachers. Low achievement was raised which I pointed out (at some length) is not going away while long term welfare dependence continues (which elicited some agreement). The lifting of the school leaving age wasn't sitting easily.

But the significant aspect of the 2 hour event was the leaning to the National MP. The Labour candidate was pushing it uphill. Allan Peachey is of course an expert in education given his background. He tackled the questions personally rather than as a party mouthpiece and was credible and sincere.

The mood for change goes beyond the poll indications.

Teaching twaddle

Check out the following NCEA question. It is apparently a compulsory question from a Geography exam. Sounds more like Gender Studies - twaddle from twats.

Thing is I can't even begin to answer it. Perhaps NotPC can help out. Would seem to be rather more up his alley than mine. Yikes. There's a thought.

Do alleys have genders?

The not-so-good-news about young Maori

Just over two weeks ago Labour were talking up a Ministry of Social Development report that showed the gap between rich and poor is shrinking (what else would you expect when more attention is paid to dividing up the pie than growing it?) Trevor Mallard turned up at a meeting waving a chart from said report and Ruth Dyson waxed lyrical.

This week a further report has been released which contains some good news but plenty of not so good. The media seem to have missed it. Perhaps Simon Collins is away.

The not-so-good news pertains largely to young Maori. According to the report;

The teenage birth rate for Maori fell by 26 percent between 1997 and 2002 before increasing by a similar amount between 2002 and 2007.

Just over half of all women who have children in their teens are Maori.

There has been a slight fall in the proportion of Maori staying on at school to the age of 17.5 years since the early 90s

Truancy rates increased for all ethnic groups between 2004 and 2006. The largest growth occurred for Māori students, with an increase of 17 percent in the percentage of unjustified absences. [The Maori truancy rate is more than 4 times the NZ European rate.]

Young Mäori are also over-represented in youth justice statistics, accounting for almost half of all police apprehensions of 14–16 year olds and over half of all cases proved in the Youth Court involving 14–16 year olds.

Road deaths for Mäori under the age of 25 increased between 2001 and 2005. By comparison with the total population under 25 years, young Mäori are at greater risk of dying from assault, unintentional injury and motor vehicle accidents.

The Maori youth suicide rate which, after falling between the periods 1996–1998 and 1999–2001, increased by nearly as much in the years up to 2003–2005.

Maori secondary school students were almost 4 times more likely to witness adult violence in the home than NZ European.

I do not need to spell out the implications of all the above. There is a group of young Maori who are living under-achieving, unproductive and often unhappy lives. The group out of which most crime emanates is growing.

Parallel Grey Power meetings

While the Prime Minister was speaking to Grey Power yesterday in Lower Hutt, the Hutt South candidates were speaking to Grey Power over the hill in Wainuiomata, including Trevor who (I suspect) had the meeting moved forward half an hour so he could dash off the be with the PM later. Wainui is Trevor's home and he pulls the strings. The format was strange with each candidate getting 3 mins to speak followed by 5 mins of audience questions just to them. I got grilled on climate change, gst and the economy by local Grey Power hierarchy. That's OK. I like criticism. Stirs the blood. The United Future candidate from Rimutaka remarked to me they were particularly hard on me but that I'd handled it well. And the feedback after the show, as I handed out the 20 Point Plans, was encouraging, especially from men who are climate change agnostics and others worried about the economic effects of the ETS.

The hot button issue for this group seemed to be crime, with a number calling for the return of the death penalty. Unfortunately I didn't get chance to get involved in that discussion but Maori Party candidate, Derek Fox, asked the woman calling for it if she would flick the switch and she replied gladly. Then she made a strange remark. Even if we never used it we should bring it back, indicating she thought it would be a successful deterrent. Has she looked at the crime in those US states that still use it? Another man said he didn't think we should be paying to keep people in prison and we should just 'trash' them. Emotive, unreasoning stuff.

This is my short speech;

For ACT this election is primarily about the economy. Say ‘economy’ to some people and their eyes glaze over. They shouldn’t because the economy has a huge effect on all our lives regardless of our age.

Our average income from working in New Zealand is now NZ$450 behind Australia’s. NZ$450 per week.

ACT has a plan to bridge that gap over the next ten years and we have laid it down here. Please read it.

What would bridging that gap mean for you?

For a start Super would go up because Super is indexed to average after-tax earnings. Cutting income tax would also have a similar, more immediate but smaller effect.

Instead of waiting for a slightly bigger slice of the cake that may or may not come your way, the chances of your super income rising are much greater with strong economic growth.

But it isn’t just about the money going into your bank account every week. It’s about far more.

A number, possibly even a majority of you have children and grandchildren now living overseas. That is because NZ is slipping in international competitiveness. Our people leave for better incomes, sometimes as a short-term measure to repay a loan sooner. Many do not return. And that is an enormous emotional cost to their families.

We are also seeing the effects of losing international economic competitiveness in skill shortages in the health area. Most health care is consumed in our older years. By 2050, the portion of the population that is 65 plus, is going to double. If we carry on letting NZ drop down the OECD income ladder – we used to be third and are now 22nd – our ability to care for the aged will get far worse than it is today.

National will win this election, but because they have bought into Labour’s major economic policies, have little hope of achieving the economic growth we so desperately need. If you believe the economy matters you need to give your Party Vote to ACT so more MPs can join Rodney Hide, who is going to win Epsom, in achieving a real change of direction for this country and the people who live in it.

The Maori Party method

Last night a friend and I attended a Maori Party hui in Lower Hutt. The candidate for Te Tai Tonga was launched - a youngish lawyer who has a pleasant way about her but waffles a fair bit - and Derek Fox, Te Ururoa Flavell and Pita Sharples all spoke. Tariana was a no-show but I wasn't disappointed.

The Maori Party is seeking the electorate vote only. That was the first message. Seven candidates in the Maori seats seeking only the electorate vote.

But then that changed as the meeting went on and they began explaining the MMP system quite extensively (including an innovative slide show presentation) and decided they were trying to grow their Party Vote in the general electorates as a basis for future growth. This seeming switch may come about because they speak to two different audiences at once. The handful of Ngati Pakeha present may have been noted.

The Maori Party take a long term view. The past three years has been all about building credibility and they are very proud of having spoken to every bill that has passed (and so they should be), their conduct in the house (and so they should be) and their expanding array of policy positions.

But unlike other political meetings little was talked of policy. Their catchcry is being a voice for Maori, BUT an independent voice. They do not want to be in a formal coalition with either party because they fear being swallowed up and losing their ability to vote for their constituents when their constituents may disagree with the passage of certain legislation. Sharples believes that Key will reach out to them for support if he wants to form more than a one-term government. Much scorn (good naturedly) was heaped upon the Maori Labour MPs but certainly supporting Labour was not ruled out either. (Winston is now smiling at them but he is smiling too late.)

So the method is very much emotion-based. The tribal identification is subsumed by the new tribe - the Maori Party. The Flags, the Identity, the Family, the Celebration. The vibe is a good one. There is humour aplenty. They are a young party despite having older MPs (Pita can't wait for someone younger to come along and replace him) and brimming with enthusiasm.

It would be very easy to be seduced by the newest political gang, especially when one sympathises with their big issue - trying to hold on to their property rights (which goes beyond just the seabed and foreshore legislation). But I do not see separatism as good for New Zealand. Factionalism of the fighting-over-resources kind is anathema, it is a divisive and destructive feature of socialism. Although the mood was very upbeat the overriding message is still one of Maori difference and Maori need and from what I could discern the really tough issues never got a look in.

Let's talk about trust

Clark says this election is about 'trust'.

What about trusting the people?

Never before has a government demonstrated less trust in people to run their own affairs.

If it's about trust, Labour must be the last choice.

Gang ban - the wrong road to go down

We do not need a ban on gangs.

A good deal of what gangs do is illegal (thanks, in the main, to drug prohibition).

The police cannot control their criminal activities so their best response is to ban presently legal and overt activities - freedom of movement and association.

Police Association president Greg O'Connor wants Australian banning legislation copied here,

"We don't like coming second to Australia in anything, but if there was a Bledisloe Cup for anti-gang laws, they would clean up," Mr O'Connor said.

Gangs will always exist. They are a facet of the human impulse to group for mutual advantage. Prohibition provides some of them with a more than lucrative means of support (welfare provides them with a less than lucrative means). If we want rid of the resulting criminal gangs then we have to destroy their revenue source on both counts.

Ask yourself, are gangs selling home-brewed wine and beer? Why not?

No stone unturned

The volunteers who deliver election material frequently ask about which letterboxes they should put material in. I put it in all letterboxes. Took the boy and the dog and we covered Lowry Bay yesterday. Even got a bit sunburned. Beautiful day.

Fostering

I know the caregivers in one of the foster homes this young man lived in and they are very good people. Apparently they have stood by him and supported him during the trial.

I don't much care what happens to this young murderer. The caregivers would be appalled to hear me say that no doubt. But comes a point when forgiveness is no longer an option. Maybe they still haven't and won't ever reach it.

What I do care about is how hurt and betrayed they must be feeling. Helping people with hard backgrounds involves a huge amount of trust and you convince yourself - you have to - that it is warranted and flows both ways.

With the vocation they have, the only way you keep at it is to accept, you win some, you lose some. What cost the loss though.

Child death claims don't stack up

Here we go again with the claim that it is somehow the fault of Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson that children die through maltreatment;

Kerre Woodham writes;

He [Mike Doolan] says international experience shows that economic conditions are closely associated with levels of child abuse, and any group that suffers more from social and economic changes are found to be over represented in child abuse and other antisocial statistics.

The effects of the economic reforms of the 1990s can be seen in the higher rate of child killings during that decade. The lower death rate between 2000 and 2005 can be partially attributed to low unemployment levels and much greater prosperity, he says.

The problem with this theory is that journalists conveniently ignore statistics prior to the 90s.



Do the 1990s stand out particularly?

The rate of deaths does not anyway have a hard and fast correlation to the amount of abuse. And trying to measure abuse is even more troublesome. Definitions, awareness of, willingness to report, child justice approaches, have all changed. It would for example appear there was little Maori child abuse pre the 60s (statistically speaking). That is because Pakeha society largely ignored Maori society. Maori ex-nuptial rates of birth (which have a strong association with child abuse) were not even included in general statistics until the 1960s.

Here's another thought. The medical fraternity is progressively more able to save life. How many more children are invalided through maltreatment who would previously have died? The child death figures are very small and consequently very volatile. I would be reluctant to use them to illustrate any theory, as unsatisfactory as I find that.

(2003 was an aberration - according to Family First statistics, deaths have averaged about 7 per year over the past five years. They are not routinely published by the police.)

Only 140 years to wait

There is good news on the economic front.

According to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research;

The trans-Tasman income gap will disappear 140 years from now, if the economies of New Zealand and Australia continue to grow at the same average rates for the period 2000-2007.

Ummm. 2148.

On the other hand New Zealand could choose ACT's 20 Point Plan and aim to beat Australia by 2020.....

I know which I prefer.

Key "booed and jeered" by self-delusionists

Yesterday John Key addressed a conference hosted by Every Child Counts, a left-leaning, pro-Labour bunch which Barnardo's Murray Edridge, also present, described as "partisan". Hostile might have been a better descriptor.

Key was apparently booed and jeered for talking about boot camps to address youth offending.

Minister for Social Development, Ruth Dyson, was more warmly received. She responded,

The current youth justice system worked well and "in a way that respects our youth, keeps them out of the adult justice system". She said New Zealand risked losing its comparatively low youth offending level if it changed the approach.

So things are pretty hunky dory down under.

Consider then the following;

2007. Youth Court judge Andrew Becroft

Despite the successful use of diversion since reforms in 1989, its use had fallen markedly in the past two years, Judge Becroft said.

About 38 per cent of all police apprehensions of youth offenders now resulted in diversion, compared to 55 per cent two years ago.

In the same period, those that led to prosecutions in the Youth Court had risen from 17 per cent to 29 per cent.

One reason for that was a rise in violent offending among young people over the same period - but it was not the only factor, he said.

2007. From the Ministry of Social Development;

While there was growth in the young person population, overall offending rates remained static over the same period. In fact, when considered on a per 10,000 of population basis, the ratio of apprehensions to population decreased by over 11%.

However, there were significant increases in violent offending. Apprehensions for violent offending rose by 36.4% over the previous 8 years and charges for violent offending increased by 57.6% between 2000 and 2005. This suggests it is the ferocity, not the frequency of offending which is changing.

2008. Kim Workman National Director of Prison Fellowship and new appointment to the Families Commission;

Yes, there has been a recent rise in the rate of apprehensions for violent offending, particularly serious violent offending. But that increase applies to every age cohort of the population – apart from 10 – 13 year olds.

It is violent offending that society worries about most. Violent youth offending is accelerating.

It sickens me that Ruth Dyson swans about the place talking in self-congratulatory terms about her government and their international standing in respect of crime. It is bull shit. And those people who sit there lapping it up because it affirms their own wonky world view and their modus operandi of denial are just as bad.

Heaven help us if we get another three years of these self-delusionists holding sway.