Putting the statistics in context

Earlier this week the Minister for Social Development, Ruth Dyson, was reported as being "unconcerned" about the large increase in young people on sickness and invalid benefits, saying the overall increase was "hardly a change at all".

Welfare commentator Lindsay Mitchell today offered to help the Minister put the statistics for young people in context.

"At the end of October there were 1,250 16-17 year-olds receiving an invalid or sickness benefit. In the United Kingdom, also experiencing a huge problem with dependency on incapacity benefits, there were 6,600 16-17 year-olds on the equivalent benefits."

"The population of the United Kingdom is 15 times greater than New Zealand's yet they have only 5 times as many 16-17 year-olds receiving an incapacity benefit. This difference should alert the Minister to a problem urgently warranting concern - not indifference or complacency."

Minto and "myths about poverty"

From John Minto's column in today's New Zealand Herald;

The US has the highest levels of poverty in the Western world (more than 30 million) despite one of the highest per capita incomes in the world. Why would this be?

Poverty in the US is relative poverty. The US has a very high number because it has a very large population. 30 million is around 1 in 10.

One way to measure relative poverty is to base it on average median income, draw the line at half and count those falling beneath it. This report tells us that using that method 1 in 10 Australians is also living in poverty.

Another way of measuring relative poverty is based on calculating average household income (usually equivalised for size of family), drawing a line at 50 or 60 percent and counting every household that falls beneath that line.

According to MSD, the proportion of New Zealanders living in families with incomes less than 60% of the median income, adjusted for family size, housing costs and inflation since 1998, has fallen from 22% in 2001 to 19% in 2004.

At 50 percent the number falls to around one in ten also.

Now let's look at Minto's answer to his own question;

Last year in the US the increase in income of the top 1 per cent of income earners was greater than the entire income of the bottom 20 per cent of the population. What this staggering statistic means is that the bottom 20 per cent of US citizens, all of whom live in poverty, could have had their incomes doubled if the wealthiest 1 per cent had simply forgone an increase in income last year.

That's not an answer. It's a tired clapped out leftist assertion. The poor are poor because the rich are rich and if money was taken off the rich and given to the poor, then the poor wouldn't be poor any more. Ah yes. We've seen how successfully that theory works in practice.

As Minto acknowledges, the US has the highest incomes per capita in the world. Their relative poor are the relative rich by third world standards. Their relative poor are richer than New Zealand's relative poor. The US is a much richer country than New Zealand. That's because too many New Zealanders have spent too much time listening to and believing fallacies promoted by the likes of Minto.

And he has the audacity to end by saying,

"(Mike) Moore has no excuse for peddling more myths about poverty."

What's yours John?

Pathetic

I shook my head as I watched and listened to Jhia Te Tua's father on TV3 tonight;

The mother of murdered Wanganui toddler Jhia Te Tua says she plans to leave the country to start a new life with her new baby boy.

Ria Gardiner will leave behind her Black Power partner Josh Te Tua, who says he sees no other option but return to Wanganui and avenge his daughter, who was killed during a drive-by gang shooting last year.

Te Tua has been undergoing counselling in the wake of his daughter’s death, but his anger at the 12 men charged over Jhia’s murder remains deeply entrenched.

The 22-year-old says revenge is inevitable and no plans to return to Wanganui and the Black Power.

While the 12 charged over Jhia’s death face a depositions hearing in Wellington next month, Te Tua himself will also be before the courts in Wanganui for an unrelated incident.

He, along with three associates, is charged with using a firearm against police and could face jail.

Jia Gardiner says she is awaiting her baby boy’s birth certificate and then plans a new life in Australia with family, away from the conflict.

During the interview he said, struggling, It's the anger thing......

More like it's the excitement thing. Exacting utu is more exciting than being a dad caring for his son. Pathetic and very sad.

Serious question

Here are two comments from Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples.

Less than a year ago;

“I’ve got extended family on the benefit and they’re just dead, living dead. The whole dependency takes away their mana in the first place and then it takes away their drive and then they expect it – that’s when it’s hard to break them out of the ‘life owes me a living’ mentality. I bash the benefit system not the beneficiaries. We need to give them back hope.”

Today;

“Labour must be held to account for successive Ministers, and their own Families Commission, lacking the political courage to face up to the findings of their own research – research which proves what we in the Maori Party have been consistently saying, that beneficiary children and families are getting a rough deal due to lack of support and inadequate income”.

Can you tell me, from these two comments, does the Maori Party want more or less welfare?

Not much to boast about

Since the gang killing of a 2 year-old in Wanganui, the city's reported crime has dropped 4 percent.

Is that all?

"...Police were boosted by the arrests. There were more than 60 arrests [of gang members and associates] during the inquiry, which has had a big impact on gangs' local offending. But crime not associated with gangs goes on."

"...And despite international media attention stirring images of Wanganui being a troubled city on the brink of a gang war, reported crime in the city dropped by 4 per cent from the shooting until November last year."

The shooting happened in May so in the following 6 months, when the police activity was at its most intense, reported crime dropped only 4 percent.

Mr MacLeod [area commander inspector] said reported crime always dropped when there were extra police in a city for a major inquiry.

"It goes against the argument that extra numbers don't make a difference - well, it does."

Not much though. Hard to make an economic argument for extra numbers based on that result. Either the gangs weren't responsible for a large chunk of the crime in the first place, or when the police were otherwise occupied, other crime increased.

And of course if I fail to mention it someone else will. This is only 'reported' crime. The vast majority of violent victimisation goes unreported.

Never enough

Paul Blair, beneficiary advocate, who forced the Ministry of Social Development to change the rules so parents with split custody of children could both claim the DPB, (a complete corruption of the original intent of this benefit) wrote a report. It was based on a sample of 15 DPB recipients who he was already providing advocacy work for. He got the Families Commission to pay for the research but then they wouldn't publish it. It appears he has now paid for the publication himself. The findings?

"It was felt that Work and Income was not forthcoming enough with extra assistance that might alleviate poverty and facilitate genuine personal and family development," the report said.

"On the whole, sole-parent DPB recipients felt that an emphasis on paid employment as the ultimate outcome ignored and devalued the work they were currently engaged in (as parents)."

What a bunch of whingers.

I am reminded of a passage from Margaret McClure's work about the history of social security in New Zealand;

Charitable aid administrators were extraordinarily cautious; they aimed to relieve absolute destitution only. Grace Neill, an early official, felt that if they attempted to do more, and alleviate poverty, ‘we may as well try to fill a sieve with water.’

How right she was.

Incapacity benefit growth and refusing to answer questions

There is some discussion at Kiwiblog regarding the reasons why the number of people on incapacity benefits is growing.

One commentor says Judith Collins should know what the breakdown of incapacity according to age etc is, due to the written questions she has asked. How glib. Questions are NOT ANSWERED.

For example;

11954 (2007). Judith Collins to the Minister for Social Development and Employment (06 Jul 2007): Further to the answer to question for written answer 8800 (2007) what is the age breakdown, by year, of all recipients of the Sickness Benefit who have received that benefit for more than 12 months, listed by incapacity?

Hon David Benson-Pope (Minister for Social Development and Employment) replied: I refer the Member to the quarterly benefit factsheets, which are publicly available on the Ministry’s website, www.msd.govt.nz.


The factsheets DO NOT provide this information.

I am unaware of any age specific breakdown but the tables below (left click to enlarge) clearly show where the growth areas are overall.

For both benefits the largest increases are for psychological or psychiatric conditions.

Separatism has no future

Why do some people persist with separatism as a principle for policy formation?

Why do we have a party based on race?

Isn't the above the best news about race relations in New Zealand?

Indefensible response

Good on National MP Judith Collins for pointing out that the number of young people on sickness and invalid's benefits has substantially increased under Labour.

To add weight to her argument, that this is a new trend under Labour, the number of Invalid Benefits paid to 15-19 year-olds in 1990 was 1,923 - just 11 fewer than in 2000.

In 1990 there were 1,889 15-19 year-olds receiving a sickness benefit. The number had dropped to 1,077 by 2000.

Conclusion: National has a better record than Labour in respect to the number of young people on incapacity benefits.

I am appalled by Ruth Dyson's reaction;

Social Development and Employment Minister Ruth Dyson was not concerned about the figures, saying the overall increase was "hardly a change at all".

How can she justify that?

In 2001 there were 265,281 15-19 year-olds - by 2006 300,198 15-19 year-olds (Census counts).

That's a 13 percent rise over roughly the same period. Yet the growth in 15-19 year-olds on either a sickness or invalid benefit is 65 percent.

Can anybody else have a shot at explaining her response?

Bill Ralston on benefit debt

I read Bill Ralston's column today with a sense of bemusement. He chose the two things I had used to highlight how National are fiddling, to highlight where money could be saved for taxcuts. The $45,000 on TVs for prisoners and the $761 million of beneficiary debt.

This is the same Bill Ralston that used to host radio talkback. I well remember one day trying to start a conversation about how a welfare culture leads to crime. He made a sarcastic rejoinder that perhaps beneficiaries were committing crime because they weren't paid enough, and cut me off.

In today's column he writes;

Another fact that should make Helen Clark think twice about her handout strategy is the debt mountain in the Ministry of Social Development. More than 500 people are now employed by the MSD to try to control the $761 million of beneficiary debt. While it must be hard, at times, to get blood out of a stone, you do have to wonder about the competence of the MSD in failing so abysmally to manage its own affairs.

Here's a thought - that $761 million, if recovered, would make a nice start in tax cuts for people who work for a living.

Now there's a change in tune.

Apart from which, I am unsure how the $761 million, which is mostly being repaid through further benefit reductions, can be used for tax cuts. But then I am not an economist.

Attacking symptoms

National welfare spokesperson Judith Collins is worried about the amount of debt beneficiaries are getting into and the rising number of staff tasked to manage the problem.

Under National the problem wouldn't improve, it would get worse. Why do I say that?

One of the biggest contributors to debt accrual is sanctions. Under National policies more sanctions were imposed. For example benefit payments were reduced for non-compliance with work tests. Under Labour sanctions still apply but with full backdated reinstatement on compliance. This was done specifically to reduce indebtedness.

Work and Income operates like a bank. When clients need something extraordinary they apply for a grant or benefit advance. When their benefit won't cover costs they apply for extra hardship assistance. Some grants have to be repaid, others do not. Some debts arise out of overpayment. Some from fraud. The system drives the debt.

The debt problem has become this large because SO many people rely on Work and Income. But again, like spending $45,000 for TVs for prisoners, this is just a peripheral issue. It's a symptom of the problem. Again this is National attacking symptoms, not the condition.

Media Release
THIRD OF DPB PARENTS "NOT INTERESTED IN LOOKING FOR WORK"
Thursday, January 3, 2008

According to a recently published Ministry of Social Development report, one third of surveyed sole parents receiving the DPB expressed no interest in looking for work. The report, The 2002 Domestic Purposes and Widow's Benefit Reform: Evaluation Report also found that since the controversial removal of work testing in 2003, the 'exit rate' for recipients whose youngest child is 14 or older has dropped.

"There is no surprise that other factors associated with the fall in this group's exit rate (the rate at which people leave the benefit) included being a teenager when the oldest child was born, having already spent a large proportion of their time in the benefit system and being Maori or Pacific. What should worry the Ministry, " said welfare commentator, Lindsay Mitchell, "is the number of very young newcomers has not decreased. In September 1999 there were 2,687 18-19 year-olds on the DPB. By September 2007 the number had increased by 15 percent to 3,093. Additionally there are typically six or seven hundred 16 and 17 year-old teenage parents receiving the Emergency Maintenance Allowance at any given time."

"Most of the Work and Income's resources have been focussed on getting more amenable cases into work or training, Meanwhile nothing has been done to discourage the inflow of those mothers who will stay the longest in the system."

"Some case managers reported that the Personal Employment and Development Plans, which replaced work-testing, have made little impression on women who have been on the benefit for six to twelve years who use the new system 'to their advantage'. Others said that their clients showed no interest in keeping a copy of their plan or binned it on the way out. The report states, 'There was a general feeling among case managers that for many people, having a copy of their PDEP was not something they valued highly.' "

"While the number of sole parents on the DPB has dropped, the reasons are complex and may have little to do with the reforms. This is acknowledged by the authors of the report. The drop may be an effect of low unemployment, the Working for Families incentives and the ageing population. Certainly the removal of full-time work-testing for those with children aged fourteen or older has had a negative impact."

What next?

It just gets worse, this cacophonic clamouring for an accident-free utopia. Now we need courses in using ladders.

"What do you do for a living? I teach people how to climb ladders. Really. Does it take long? Oh you'd be surprised how long it can take when I am paid by the hour."

Accident Compensation is accident insurance. We pay our premiums, we have no choice. Pay out and spare us the lectures.

Petty politicking

Wouldn't it be refreshing if we got some serious analysis from National about the reasons why the prison toll continues to climb, our imprisonment rate is well above the average for the developed world and Maori are grossly over-represented.

It is hard to get excited about $45,000 being spent on TVs and Play Stations. This is just typical petty politicking.

If you study overseas research of the kind New Zealand has never undertaken, it is quite clear there are risk factors for becoming delinquent and ending up in prison. Once acknowledged, efforts to reduce them can begin. If similar research was conducted here I have no doubts the results would be similar.

I wonder about why NZ hasn't emulated international studies and can only conclude that those capable of conducting such research, those who could gain access to the information required, namely academics, are not inclined to. The conclusions would inevitably result in a focus on Maori and that would never do.

What we are sorely lacking is some Maori leadership brave enough to take it on themselves to try and understand the causes of crime beyond 'dislocation' and 'poverty'. Where is it?

Mr Status Quo

Well I may as well start the new year the way I intend to continue. I began the morning with a groan reading the DomPost. I even used the 'g' word which I always reprimand my children for. Say golly or gosh or goodness. But I had an excuse. The subject being John Key and his proclamations for New Zealand. How bad a prime minister is he going to be?

On maintaining the welfare state;

"It's not only the provision of welfare for people in need, it is a statement about who we are. That we don't have overt signs of poverty. That for all the frustrations we may have about the odd individual who might rip the system off we are prepared to back it because we look at New Zealand as a better country than those who don't have it."

"The vast bulk of core services will be delivered by the state and while we do want to introduce choice it is equally important that we deliver really well. So rather than a view that we say there is no role for the public health sector or we want to diminish that in some way, our view is to say we are frustrated by the fact that it is not delivering performance for what's being spent - so how do we fix it?"

It's all more of the same political claptrap we have heard from both Labour and National for donkeys. The problem isn't the state, it's just the way the state's doing things. A position not unlike that taken by those who maintain communism wasn't a problem, it was just the way it was implemented.

If National doesn't want to diminish the role of the public health sector then it doesn't want to boost the role of the private health sector. Status quo.

If National is prepared to tolerate the welfare state being ripped off and still back it then they are not interested in reform. Status quo.

There will be no fundamental change under National. The intergenerational welfare comatose, the crime it creates, the gap between poor Maori and the rest of society, the wretchedness of having to build more prisons to accommodate our high levels of violent crime, extraordinarily high rates of depression, addiction, and teenage pregnancy - do they matter?

I guess they don't because there are, according to Mr Key, no "overt signs of poverty". Perhaps he really does believe this is as good as it gets. I think that is the most charitable interpretation I can put on his words. In which case he really is Mr Status Quo.

The power of the state is ugly

Occasionally something will drive me to blink back tears of sadness and frustration.

The story of the malformed baby from Samoa is one such case.

The community raised $100,000 to get her to NZ after a plastic surgeon said it was worth having a look at what might be done for her. The Immigration Department, after taking their own advice, refused her entry to New Zealand.

Nobody is asking the government for money. A young baby has zero chance of becoming an over-stayer. All her parents want is a definitive assessment which they cannot get in Samoa. But Immigration says the child cannot enter the country.

Witness the power of the state at its worst.

Today's Taranaki Herald has written on the subject. Well said;


Miracle baby deserves our help
Taranaki | Monday, 31 December 2007

Rules, rules, rules.

Some people and organisations live by them and follow them to the very letter. And not even Christmas or compassion can sway them from adherence to that tight, strict path, says the Taranaki Daily News

Our immigration department is one such organisation.

Even though it has been revealed to be extraordinarily incompetent in its application of those rules, with largesse and officiousness thrown around in equal abandon when it considers cases involving Pacific Islanders, there's still no room for leniency for a little girl named Miracletina.

She's a four-month-old baby born in Samoa with incredible, pitiful deformities: no top to her brain, no eyeballs, a double cleft palate, no fingers, deformed feet and spina bifida.

It's a miracle that she has survived, and family have fed the baby girl against doctors' advice. But not only has she survived, she is healthy, can raise her head and responds to family members.

Now she needs our help.

And we have slammed the door. Thanks, but no thanks. Sorry, says our immigration department, we've looked at your case and it doesn't meet our criteria. Nothing we can provide will do any good.

Fair enough, you say. Our hospitals and medical specialists are over-burdened enough, without taking on the cases of other nations' citizens, no matter how touching and needful.

But these are not people coming to us for a handout. This is not a family and a community who have simply tossed their hands into the air and said they've done all they can do and now it's up to someone else to sort out the mess.

The family have raised the not insignificant sum of $103,000 in the Baby Miracle Appeal in Samoa and New Zealand. That's people in this country who have pledged to help this child, this family to deal with what is an awful misfortune; helped towards a campaign to send this unfortunate child and her family to New Zealand, if even just for an examination.

But still our officials say no.

We believe that's not on, and the immigration officials need to take a cold, hard look at themselves.

This family doesn't want charity, although they definitely deserve it.

They have made a huge effort to help themselves, which already puts them above the many others in this country happy to get something for nothing.

This family is saying to New Zealand that there is something you can provide that will be of some good.

And that's hope.

Given what we have in this country compared to what's available in many Pacific Islands, surely that's not too much to ask, is it?

Recruiting gang members easier than recruiting fruit-pickers

What a joke. Yesterday I blogged about the so-called labour shortage in Southland. It would however appear gangs can recruit people to sell 'P'.

The Central Otago district mayor said a growing number of Mongrel Mob members and affiliates who were recruiting teenagers in Cromwell could be driven out of town by locals.

Police yesterday confirmed a group of gang affiliates had moved into the area in recent weeks, and had established themselves at three properties in the town...

Earlier this month, Canterbury police expressed concern both the Mongrel Mob and Black Power were recruiting in smaller South Island centres to reach profitable new drug markets. At the time Inspector Dave Gaskin said the gangs were trying to spread their drug business.

"The Mongrel Mob are the catalyst, they are driving it. They pick on the easy targets, the low socio-economic, low-intelligence kids and as a result they are getting a foothold in the area."

And where do the low socio-economic kids come from? Frequently, welfare-dependent, single parent, workless homes.

A government too willing

It's that time of the year when we hear the same old story about fruit grower's desperation to hire harvesting staff.

More than 11,000 foreigners in New Zealand have been individually urged to immediately take up seasonal work in Central Otago, as desperate cherry growers in the district teeter on the brink of losing their crucial export harvests because of a labour shortage.

From Boxing Day, every visitor thought to be in New Zealand with a Holiday Working Scheme permit was sent text messages and emails urging them to head to Central Otago, in a last-ditch effort by Horticulture New Zealand and the Department of Labour to boost workers in the district.

Central Otago has been recognised as having an absolute labour shortage by Work and Income New Zealand for the past three years.

There are 19,000 people aged 18-64 picking up a benefit in Southland alone. I understand some would not be able to do the physical work required and some would need to make arrangements for young children. That aside I cannot accept there isn't labour available in that pool. Whether it is willing is another matter. Perhaps the government should be less willing to provide them with an alternative.

The 'J ' word

A 5 year-old punches his mother in the face and she gets the headline for punching him back. Then she prostrates herself before the public and judiciary. Get this line, about the new anti-smacking laws;

It also meant people who saw such things would be forced to make judgments on other people's parenting and to weigh up whether they thought it was necessary to call police to intervene, she said.

Now there's an idea I hadn't thus far appreciated. I am sure Sue Bradford wouldn't be very happy about the thought she has forced society back towards judgmentalism. Most liberal lefties worship at the altar of non-judgmentalism and moral relativism. How often do you hear one say, walk a mile in my shoes before you judge me?

The left produces a curious mix of permissiveness and authoritarianism, does it not.

A word about Xmas bingeing

At last. Some good advice received via e-mail...


I just read an article on the dangers of heavy drinking....
Scared the hell out of me.
So that's it!


After today, no more reading.

Although I think I can guarantee 'safe' reading here. Thanks so much for all the comments made over the past two years. Have a great day. I'm off to ice gingerbread men and marinate the steak for the barbie... and wouldn't you know it....it's persisting down....
Merry Xmas!