tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post7912339366612894858..comments2024-03-04T16:39:30.609+13:00Comments on Lindsay Mitchell: Why suppress evidence of welfare abuse?Lindsay Mitchellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04437693272797130833noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-88665607436889354922016-01-14T17:07:12.804+13:002016-01-14T17:07:12.804+13:00All benefits are fraud - fraud on hardworking taxp...All benefits are fraud - fraud on hardworking taxpaying citizens. Frankly for these kind of surveys a 5-10% error rate is quite likely. When will even ACT campaign on ending all benefits? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-24566389127041126492016-01-13T20:42:31.920+13:002016-01-13T20:42:31.920+13:00This - is why I always regularly check your blog L...This - is why I always regularly check your blog Lindsay. You always do classy analysis.<br /><br />Thank you.<br /><br />This is what happens after the first few years of the first term of a government. Officials learn how to 'manage' their ministers and ministers become less willing to roll out damaging data. <br /><br />It's only ever 'clean' for the first two years of every new government when everyone is feeling their way and generally playing by the rules - after that the gaming starts. This is why we so desperately need a change of government - the problem is the current opposition is chaotically broken and showing no signs of getting their act together and so is unelectable. <br /><br />What happens next is the government thinks they can't put a foot wrong and keep on straying further and further of the path of good intentions and all of a sudden the electorate snap and are so repulsed they will vote in even the most demented of oppositions. <br /><br />In turn that opposition will mistake revulsion of the outgoing government for a mandate and they'll irrevocably break the country (as we all know a Labour/Green/Mana/Internet would have done. Look at Australia post Howard to see how it's going to look for us. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-61524652540498936562016-01-12T17:53:22.041+13:002016-01-12T17:53:22.041+13:00I thought the government had always matched welfar...I thought the government had always matched welfare recipients with IRD records. Is that not the case?<br />MaryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-73041865142615327842016-01-12T17:10:20.829+13:002016-01-12T17:10:20.829+13:00So basically you need to take the figures, work ou...So basically you need to take the figures, work out a rough cost to the taxpayer and extrapolate them to the present day and see what the damage is..<br /><br />If its (say) more that the Govt's trumpeted savings then (to me) its worth publishing. Also, the accumulated cost would be useful too because there may be hundreds of millions involved..<br /><br />JCJChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00875768024598278750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-46720846180058044532016-01-12T13:15:55.717+13:002016-01-12T13:15:55.717+13:00Well done. I worked with the author of the study f...Well done. I worked with the author of the study for a while. He is very smart. Jim Rosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337463816684447862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19962237.post-47401162915466260162016-01-12T13:11:43.713+13:002016-01-12T13:11:43.713+13:00So long as beneficiaries never are actually punish...So long as beneficiaries never are actually punished for having answered honestly on the surveys, then that rationale evaporates. And Stats would be good at ensuring that IDI linkages can't be used for such purposes.<br /><br />Maybe you could get a mechanism where MSD is able to do predictive modelling on who'll cheat based on the linking of HES/HLFS data with MSD data, then run some checks on those at high likelihood of cheating as predicted by those models, while dropping the cases that allowed the predictions to be made but applying the model again to the full sample in a few years' time - when the two-years-ago cheats' background administrative data would have changed enough that they wouldn't perfectly predict cheating.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.com