Monday, October 08, 2012


Prompted by a Whale Oil post I went looking for the statistical evidence for this claim:

"According to the EPMU, since 2008 nearly 40,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost to the economy."

I checked the 2012 HLFS data here against the 2008 HLFS data here

June 2008 186,300 manufacturing jobs
June 2012  175,100 manufacturing jobs

BUT there were 184,600 in March 2012. Obviously a good deal of fluctuation occurs. Nevertheless the lost jobs as quoted by EPMU will have been counter-balanced by created jobs.


Samuel Konkin said...

You've used the 2010 June quarter, not 2008.

Also, the source is the QES, not the HLFS.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Samuel, The 2010 table extends back to June 2008. The number I've used is correct. And my point remains. The HLFS does not support the claim.

Anonymous said...

Why rely on Whaleoil when you can get it straight from the horse's mouth? Steven Joyce admits that manufacturing jobs are in decline. Rather than quibbling about the figures, how about you acknowledge this fact.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

I didn't dispute that manufacturing jobs are in decline. The "fact" you link to is a series of parliamentary exchanges concerning the decline in employment in the manufacturing sector and increase in employment in others, and highlights that the decline in manufacturing had been occurring under the last Labour govt also.

Here are Joyce's figures for those who don't want to follow the link:

"There were 272,000 people employed in the manufacturing sector in the September 2008 quarter, out of a total New Zealand employment of 2,194,000. The most recent data shows 247,000 people employed in manufacturing, out of a total employment of 2,227,000. It is interesting, though, that it was in decline in 2008, and was growing in 2010 and 2011. The unique aspect of 2008, of course, is that we had already been in a recession that had been domestically generated in 2008 by the previous Government, and the manufacturing sector grew in 2010 and 2011."